Improving in 2010

[lunacy]

Going Backwards

Simon Goodwin
Tyson Edwards
Andrew McLeod

As weird as it sounds, I reckon Mcleod could possibly slip into the steady performers category and maybe even be an improver. I say this because he was heavily tagged in the first 3 quarters of the season and didnt cope well with the close attention.

With the greater emergence of vince and Dangerfield in the midfield and the ongoing performances of Thompson, I actually think Mcleod's days of being tagged could be over. We saw at the end of the season that Mcleod started having a big impact on games when he stopped getting tagged.

 

[sydney_crow]

Great thread and a good debate.

The way I read it was who will contribute more either through natural improvement (e.g. Tippett) or due to greater availability post-injuries (e.g. Bock).

In that light you really want to see a substantially higher number in the going up v going down category as there will always be injuries to contend with that pull us down.

Vader's bottom line that, one way or another, you need to move forward is absolutely true and I think the Crows are well placed to do so.

 

[Suddenly Susan]

Yeah, whilst his goal kicking was generally pretty good, he still sprayed his fair share of shots throughout the year. But then you'd take that because whilst he might spray 1 or 2, he'd also slot another 2 or 3 from long range which otherwise may not have resulted in goals.

In response to posts re Knights, I think it is a very difficult argument to make that he did not make significant improvements this year and with a big pre-season in him, would be almost unbackable to be All-Australian next year. I mean he was rated a reasonable All-Australian chance this year, and considering he has previously been a bit player, in and out of the team, that in my books is a massive improvement.

In recent years the only question mark on his game was his disposal, now it is generally regarded as one of the biggest weapons in the comp. I realise this became apparent due to him moving up forward, but that simply facilitated the massive improvement we saw. He was like 20-something goals and 3 or 4 behinds at one stage of the year, which if I remember correctly was the number one goal kicking percentage at that time. The reason we lost the Pies game can be directly put down to Knights going off, especially as he started that game so well with that strong contested mark.

 

[thebirdman 24]

As weird as it sounds, I reckon Mcleod could possibly slip into the steady performers category and maybe even be an improver. I say this because he was heavily tagged in the first 3 quarters of the season and didnt cope well with the close attention.

Even when McLeod was being tagged he was having an impact, he did a lot of blocking work and freeing up players which was so crucial to our run out the back line. Also whenever he touched the pill, which may not of been as frequent, he disposed of it to his high standard.

Certainly the emergence of Vince as an A-Grader and soon Mackay will definitely help out our older group.

For some reason i see Cook as a huge improver again in 2010, even though there is queries over his kicking technique. Douglas might have to remain in the forward 50 with all the midfield depth we have, but in 2008 he was more than serviceable down there, so maybe he could take that small forward role until someone more natural comes along.

The great thing about our squad is our versatility. Most players can play in other positions, eg, most of our midfielders can be used in the forward lines, off the half back flank, or even a run with role. This means that when we need to change things up, our structure is not too disrupted, and the players we move around are able to perform. There are however, a few players that you wouldn't want to move around eg Walker in the ruck again or Bock playing as a forward. Craig just needs to figure out what sort of structural moves can help us win matches and that will help us improve and win the close games such as the Pies game or the Geelong one.

 

[Vader]

In response to posts re Knights, I think it is a very difficult argument to make that he did not make significant improvements this year and with a big pre-season in him, would be almost unbackable to be All-Australian next year. I mean he was rated a reasonable All-Australian chance this year, and considering he has previously been a bit player, in and out of the team, that in my books is a massive improvement.

In recent years the only question mark on his game was his disposal, now it is generally regarded as one of the biggest weapons in the comp. I realise this became apparent due to him moving up forward, but that simply facilitated the massive improvement we saw. He was like 20-something goals and 3 or 4 behinds at one stage of the year, which if I remember correctly was the number one goal kicking percentage at that time. The reason we lost the Pies game can be directly put down to Knights going off, especially as he started that game so well with that strong contested mark.

The fact of the matter is that he wasn't a big goal scorer prior to 2009 - because he was playing further up the field. His combined output from 2006-2008 was 10.18, dwarfed by his 2009 output of 43.25.

He started the season off in remarkably accurate fashion (as did Porplyzia) - by the end of R12 he had kicked 21.3 - after which he kicked 22.22. Porplyzia's return was remarkably similary, starting with 16 goals 0 behinds to R6, which turned into 57.20 by the end of the year (41.20 from R7 onwards).

His accuracy was marginally greater, largely as a result of taking many shots from closer range - not all of his goals were long bombs. Aside from a freakish period from R9-11, his accuracy wasn't really a great deal better in 2009 in comparison with the rest of his career.

 

[Suddenly Susan]

The fact of the matter is that he wasn't a big goal scorer prior to 2009 - because he was playing further up the field. His combined output from 2006-2008 was 10.18, dwarfed by his 2009 output of 43.25.

He started the season off in remarkably accurate fashion (as did Porplyzia) - by the end of R12 he had kicked 21.3 - after which he kicked 22.22. Porplyzia's return was remarkably similary, starting with 16 goals 0 behinds to R6, which turned into 57.20 by the end of the year (41.20 from R7 onwards).

His accuracy was marginally greater, largely as a result of taking many shots from closer range - not all of his goals were long bombs. Aside from a freakish period from R9-11, his accuracy wasn't really a great deal better in 2009 in comparison with the rest of his career.

Yeah, 21.3 is a remarkable effort, as is 43.25 (considering he missed a few games as well).

You say that Knights' accuracy was "marginally greater, largely as a result of taking many shots from closer range". Marginally greater than who, not Porps. Also, I do not recall Knights taking many shots from closer range as he did not take many marks deep in the 50, I recall most of his shots being about 40m out.

I also have to query the statement that "Aside from a freakish period from R9-11, his accuracy wasn't really a great deal better in 2009 in comparison with the rest of his career." Taking out the "freakish period" (which although freakish, still forms part of his record mind you), he scored, as you say, 22.22. You note that his record in previous years was 10.18, that is a impovements from 35.7% to 50%, which is "great deal better".

 

[KUNG FU]

In response to posts re Knights, I think it is a very difficult argument to make that he did not make significant improvements this year and with a big pre-season in him, would be almost unbackable to be All-Australian next year. I mean he was rated a reasonable All-Australian chance this year, and considering he has previously been a bit player, in and out of the team, that in my books is a massive improvement.

In recent years the only question mark on his game was his disposal, now it is generally regarded as one of the biggest weapons in the comp. I realise this became apparent due to him moving up forward, but that simply facilitated the massive improvement we saw. He was like 20-something goals and 3 or 4 behinds at one stage of the year, which if I remember correctly was the number one goal kicking percentage at that time. The reason we lost the Pies game can be directly put down to Knights going off, especially as he started that game so well with that strong contested mark.

A pre-season will only enhance his athletic capacity, which has never been the issue. He has a peculiar kicking style common to left-footers and that is hard to rectify. That will mean it will be very hard for him to elevate his game much further beyond what it is at now. Some players do have their footballing limited by their aerobic capacity, ie Douglas (the paper indicated that he'll be back from surgery for pre-season on Nov 16, fingers crossed), and Vince prior to 2008/09, but I don't think that is the case with Knights at all. It is now clear that for Knights it was largely about position. I do worry that he has only one long-goal-kicking trick up his sleeve and that a smart opposition will negate him, but at worst he can fall back to accumulating the ball off the wing.

 

[Suddenly Susan]

A pre-season will only enhance his athletic capacity, which has never been the issue. He has a peculiar kicking style common to left-footers and that is hard to rectify. That will mean it will be very hard for him to elevate his game much further beyond what it is at now. Some players do have their footballing limited by their aerobic capacity, ie Douglas (the paper indicated that he'll be back from surgery for pre-season on Nov 16, fingers crossed), and Vince prior to 2008/09, but I don't think that is the case with Knights at all. It is now clear that for Knights it was largely about position. I do worry that he has only one long-goal-kicking trick up his sleeve and that a smart opposition will negate him, but at worst he can fall back to accumulating the ball off the wing.

As previously said, his peculiar kicking style is now commonly regarded as one of football's most dangerous weapons. Although his style is not textbook, it is remarkably accurate and powerful as evidenced by his goal-kicking (there have been many players will odd actions that have been effective, e.g. Goodwin).

What has hampered Knights in the past has been constant injuries, a lack of confidence that he could excel at the top level (experienced by most young players) and a lack of realisation of his potential as a forward. Assuming he stays fit, all the peices are coming together, and that is why he is on the improve.

 

[amer]

The opinion that Knights hasn't improved sounds like having an alternative opinion for the sake of it imo. His disposal has most definitely taken a step forward, you see that when he shifts up the ground to lend a hand. He also now consistently uses his strength and balance to negotiate difficult situations and deliver to damage the opposition rather than pirouette and link up. Again, we saw it both on the flank and further up into the midfield - playmaking disposals (not just talking about goals here, he produced some pretty exceptional delivery to forward targets this season). As far as the goal kicking itself goes, I recall him continually taking matters into his own hands at SANFL level and finished with tallies of 1.3 or similar. He still shanks a few, but he is a better shot at goal than he was previously.

Any positive shifts in confidence levels/mindset also constitute improvement. In fact, you'd say that is where a vast majority of improvement comes from in a footballer, aside from fitness and strength. What's between the ears. Back in round 22 of 2007 our season was on the line against the pies. It was the final term, about 5 minutes to go iirc and throughout the night we were pegged back every time we threatened to break away and seal the game. Gill delivers over the head of Knights on the wing, Knights collects, moves inside 50 and handballs sideways to Reilly who kicks a crucial goal (ripping goal that one, though ultimately in vain given what happened the following week ). Chris passed the responsibility on to Reilly. Fast forward to Geelong at SS this season. Knights marks inside 50 on a toughish angle, could easily play on, kick sideways, pass the buck but he goes back, runs around and slots it through to very nearly grab us the game - in the context of team mindset (as in, the team's belief in its ability to beat top 4 sides and push on for a flag tilt) that game was probably bigger than the Collingwood one. I remember when thinking when Knighta slotted that goal that he has really come on in terms of the belief and willingness to take control of a situation and lead by example, rather than simply being a link in a chain. Knights improved all-round as a footballer in 2009 imo.

 

[KUNG FU]

I wasn't saying Knights hadn't improved. I was saying his kicking had not. Knights' kick is still not accurate. He averaged 70% DE% & 2.6 clangers per game this year. That is appalling no matter which way you slice the numbers. I would agree he has made better use of his disposal, and utilised his huge boot for a few game-breaking goals from 50. But if I had to pick one player to land a kick on the chest of a team mate 35m away, Knights would be probably one of the last 3-5 players picked from our list.

 

[cmndstab]

Is it that appalling? Isn't the AFL-wide average for DE around 70%?

The clangers stat is always inflated for forwards isn't it, because a missed shot on goal counts as a clanger? Or am I wrong there?

 

[Geoffa32]

The area we need to improve in is our midfield.

We need Vince to step up and be our elite mid, surpassing Thompson. McKay needs 2010 to be his break out year. Along with that Danger and Otten need to be used more in the guts. Davis to come in to free Otten up to be a mid perhaps? I think we need another big bodied player in there too. A combination of Porps and Symes perhaps. Not really sure who tho. Stiff?? Or has he missed that boat.

Petrenko and Walker should be the Danger and Otten of this year. Both have had a taste and doing well at SANFL level. Walker in particular.

Sadly, Burton wont (at least I hope not) be in our best 22 come round 22 in 2010. Walker needs to own that spot.

 

[Mismatched]

Is it that appalling? Isn't the AFL-wide average for DE around 70%?

The clangers stat is always inflated for forwards isn't it, because a missed shot on goal counts as a clanger? Or am I wrong there?

No it is not appalling, forwards generally have a lower DE, courtesy of the fact they are almost always disposing to a contest or having shots on goal, where a point is regarded as an ineffective disposal. They also generally kick more than they handball, which also skews affects the DE ratio.

In fact, of the top 25 goal kickers in the AFL in season 2009, Knights ranked 4th in DE, behind only Betts(72.73%), Bradshaw (72.17) and L. Davis(71.69), with 71.04%, ahead of even Porplyzia at 67.95%.

Defenders on the other hand generally have a much higher DE, due to the fact that they almost always kick to an uncontested situation, rarely taking any risks with their disposals and quite often handball more than they kick.

Knights may not be a dead eye dick, but geez, his disposal is certainly not appalling, its just the one or two absolute shanks a game that masks his generally good disposal.

 

[amer]

The area we need to improve in is our midfield.

We need Vince to step up and be our elite mid, surpassing Thompson. McKay needs 2010 to be his break out year. Along with that Danger and Otten need to be used more in the guts. Davis to come in to free Otten up to be a mid perhaps? I think we need another big bodied player in there too. A combination of Porps and Symes perhaps. Not really sure who tho. Stiff?? Or has he missed that boat.

Petrenko and Walker should be the Danger and Otten of this year. Both have had a taste and doing well at SANFL level. Walker in particular.

Sadly, Burton wont (at least I hope not) be in our best 22 come round 22 in 2010. Walker needs to own that spot.

Agreed. It's clear now that we are building a powerful forward line and as always, have a quality defense. The midfield goes along okay and the emergence of Vince has helped it grow in stature but it continues to lack the intimidation factor on paper that say the top three midfields have. If Danger becomes the player that his ability should allow, Vince backs up his late 09 form and Mackay continues on his way after the Collingwood final, it will go a long way to turning our midfield into a definite strength for us rather than a solid workhorse affair.

The inclusion of Sloane will give us the additional attack on the footy we're looking for along with a touch of class. It would be stupid to expect a consistent, dominant year from him first up in 2010 but he'll be great for us long term.

 

[AFC979810]

Think its a little much expecting Otten, Mackay, and Vince to improve on this years efforts. Would think they would be placed in the steady category as their natural improvement will be negated by the extra attention they will now be given by opposition coaches and players.

Will be very happy to be proven wrong though.

 

[cmndstab]

I count staying steady while receiving extra attention as an improvement though (that said, we've seen plenty of cases where players have gone backwards as a result of extra attention) - from a team perspective if we're losing nothing on last year from those players, but other players are now free, that's a win.