Analysis Inexperience watch

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fanackapan

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And I'm sorry if it felt like I was taking the piss. It wasn't me. It was my OCD.
All good. Very happy to have others checking my work (Jivlain picked me up on some mistakes last year, which was good)

If anyone is following at home, all I'm doing is at (source data is just copy-pasted from footywire)
 

Jivlain

Pollyanna's statistician
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It's nice having two of us doing this because that means I can check my output too and make sure I haven't bollocked stuff up on one of my many research projects that my crazy code doesn't allowed me to separate out properly.

Also, my keying system is completely cray cray. Like, I have several different "unique keys" for players. One is a unique numeric ID. One is "whatever AFL Tables calls them", which I require uniqueness on and is occasionally consistent with what AFL Tables calls them, which is nice. Then I've got my own system, where they're called <first initial>.<surname>, in lowercase with apostrophes removed. This is not unique, except when you combine it with a year and a team, so brl-r.bastinac (for example) is unique within the year 2019, and this is how I usually refer to players internally*. Of course, you've got a problem if two players on the same team in the same year have the same initial and surname. So when we had Josh Clayton in the team and Jack Clayton in the academy squad and I was doing statistics on both teams Jack Clayton was mostly "Zac Clayton" to me. Sorry "Zac" :(. Now the bloody Bulldogs have two L. Youngs. Hopefully that doesn't become a problem at some point.

* probably at some point this made sense because I was loading stuff from the Fantasy Freako newsletter and they were just writing out player names like this and my database originally existed for exclusively this purpose.

Also I calculate the age not by storing the age or their date of birth but by storing the number of days between their DOB and Jan 1 1860. Computers usually do this when storing dates** but for some obscure reason I decided to implement this bit myself and to use an unusual epoch at the same time. No idea. Did my DBMS have a datetime format when I first added that column?

** for example, the time per your phone, the servers that run the internet and also the rest of the world, and your router, etc, is the number of seconds between now and Jan 1 1970 in a 32-bit signed int. This means that all computers will run out of dates in 2038 and this, like Y2K***, will be a problem down the line.

*** yes Y2K was a problem. Lots of people spent lots of time fixing it and basically got it pretty much sorted in time.

I really need to work on transitioning this to a new system that's not so bad.
 
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I'd be very interested to see the comparative position if the 200+ games player was excluded. That would be Hodge in our case, not sure who the Eagles player would be. It would bring our average age and games played down considerably.
 

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Biggies

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The stats are remarkably close, with the difference being that the Eagles have a few more real babies (under 25 games), whereas the Lions have more youngsters (25-49 games). None of these really tell us much about what will happen.


R1 Lions vs Eagles at Gabba, 23 March, 2019
(0 to 10 games - Lions 0 vs. Eagles 3)
0 to 24 games - Lions 3 vs. Eagles 6
25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. Eagles 1
50 to 99 games - Lions 7 vs. Eagles 6
100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Eagles 8
200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Eagles 1
Extra stats:
Average games played - Lions 92.5 vs. Eagles 93.3 (= -0.8 games on average)
Average age - Lions 25.1 vs. Eagles 25.2 (= -0.1 years on average)
Average height - Lions 188.6cm vs. Eagles 188.5cm (= +0.1cm on average)
Average weight - Lions 88.5kg vs. Eagles 87.5kg (= +0.9kg on average)
Thread of the year. Incredible effort as usual guys.
 

Tom14

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Appreciate the effort for another year fanackapan & Jivlain

I swear I remember us stuck in the 45-60 games experience for way too long, good to see where we are experience wise with Taylor & Christensen & a few others as emergencies.
We definitely had games in 2015/16 where we were going in with 60ish games average experience (and an average age of like 22) against teams with 95+ average experience and an average age of over 25.

Obviously Hodge continues to skew us a fair bit but the stats do show how the team has grown since then, aided with recruitment of veteran players.
 

Tom14

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All good. Very happy to have others checking my work (Jivlain picked me up on some mistakes last year, which was good)

If anyone is following at home, all I'm doing is at (source data is just copy-pasted from footywire)
I love that Ely Smith (and the other debutants) is listed at nearly 120 years old. That must be why he doesn't smile - he lived through the great depression!
 
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