Analysis Inexperience watch

[Last of the Roys]

Better news this week on the experience front, we have closed the gap to North considerably since round 9, although we are still a fair way behind.

Anyway, Round 15 - Lions vs. North at the Gabba

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. North 2)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 6 vs. North 4 [in round 9 it was Lions 11 vs. North 3]
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. North 4
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 5 vs. North 6
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. North 4
• 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. North 4

There is a much stronger chance we can be competitive this week, especially at home. Although we still have half of our team (11) with less than 50 games experience vs. North with 8, but that is down from 15 vs. 5 in round 9.

Still the average games gap is pretty big with the Lions team going in with an average of 73 games experience to Norths 106.9 (which is boosted a fair bit by four on 200+, especially Harvey on 375).

All in all, North have a clear advantage, but we have a lot more hope that we will be competitive this week, and even an outside chance of a win.

I think I would be happy if we stay in touch for the first 3 quarters.

See the updated numbers in red in the quoted box above following the late change for North (Hansen out, Jacobs in)

 

[paulige]

See the updated numbers in red in the quoted box above following the late change for North (Hansen out, Jacobs in)

This is one of the best threads on BigFooty, and something I always check before the game - cheers LOTR, love your work!

 

[Last of the Roys]

It is worse than I thought it might be this week. Richmond are still a surprisingly very experienced team despite their poor form this year.

Anyway, here are the stats - Round 16 Lions vs. Tigers at the 'G

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 3 vs. Tigers 2)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 7 vs. Tigers 3
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. Tigers 3
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 5 vs. Tigers 5
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 4 vs. Tigers 9
• 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Tigers 2

So the Lions will have 12 players with less than 50 games experience to just 6 from the Tigers - a big imbalance. At the other end the Tigers have half their side with more than 100 games experience compared to just 5 players for us. In terms of average games played, the Lions side will come in with a 69.3 game average vs. the Tigers average of 91.2.

If we continue our tenacity from last week and Richmond don't get on a role at home, then we could still be competitive, but it would be a massive upset (from an experience perspective) for us to win this game.

By the way Harwood is playing his 50th game this week, so next week he will move up a category.

(red edits = late change for Richmond - Thomas out, Arnott in)

 

[JasRulz63]

Looking at that breakdown, Richmond should be way more competitive then they have been this season. It's pretty similar to the age breakdown that Sydney have at the moment.

 

[POBT]

Something is amiss at Tiger land IMO. Their performances this year just don't add up and the inexperience watch analysis supports that they should be better than they are.

 

[Ironmonger]

Something is amiss at Tiger land IMO. Their performances this year just don't add up and the inexperience watch analysis supports that they should be better than they are.

Yep. It just doesn't make sense. It's not even as if there are pressing external factors, or massive injury problems, or anything like that. They're just not doing very well.

 

[James North]

Seems clear to me. Their level-headed assistant coach left.

 

[POBT]

Yep. It just doesn't make sense. It's not even as if there are pressing external factors, or massive injury problems, or anything like that. They're just not doing very well.

Even if they weren't as good as last year suggested, they surely aren't as bad as they are currently going.

 

[luthor]

Seems clear to me. Their level-headed assistant coach left.

No Leppa, no Richmond.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Interesting one this week with both teams seemingly with a number of experienced players missing.

Round 17 Lions vs. West Coast at the Gabba

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 3 vs. WC 5)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 7 vs. WC 7
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. WC 2
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 5 vs. WC 5
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 4 vs. WC 8
• 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. WC 0

So both teams have a number of very inexperienced players in their teams, although in the 0-49 game category we still clearly come out on top with 12 to 9. At the other end of the table the Eagles will have 8 players with more than 100 games experience to our 5. Although surprisingly the average games experience per player seems pretty close (hopefully I calculated it right) Lions 68.2 vs. West Coast 69.4.

I think we should therefore be a strong chance of being very competitive this week, especially at home. However the loss of Rocky on top of Redden really hurts us. With only 5 really senior players playing I am just not sure we will have enough leaders out there to get the job done.

To win without Brown, Rocky, Redden, and Rich would, in the not too distant past, have been unthinkable. But it seems like we are almost a 50/50 shot at doing that.

As for interesting player news, we have a number of players close to moving up categories:
- Harwood of course has just moved up a category having played his 50th last week
- Golby plays his 50th on the weekend
- Lester will play his 49th
- Green his 48th
- and Beams plays his 23rd

[edited (in red) for the Eagles late change according to the AFL website - Sheppard (58 games) out, Wilson (7 games) in]

 

[T Rick]

Interesting one this week with both teams seemingly with a number of experienced players missing.

Round 17 Lions vs. West Coast at the Gabba

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 3 vs. WC 4)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 7 vs. WC 6
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. WC 2
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 5 vs. WC 6
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 4 vs. WC 8
• 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. WC 0

So both teams have a number of very inexperienced players in their teams, although in the 0-49 game category we still clearly come out on top with 12 to 8. At the other end of the table the Eagles will have 8 players with more than 100 games experience to our 5. Although surprisingly the average games experience per player seems pretty close (hopefully I calculated it right) Lions 68.2 vs. West Coast 71.7

I think we should therefore be a strong chance of being very competitive this week, especially at home. However the loss of Rocky on top of Redden really hurts us. With only 5 really senior players playing I am just not sure we will have enough leaders out there to get the job done.

To win without Brown, Rocky, Redden, and Rich would, in the not too distant past, have been unthinkable. But it seems like we are almost a 50/50 shot at doing that.

As for interesting player news, we have a number of players close to moving up categories:
- Harwood of course has just moved up a category having played his 50th last week
- Golby plays his 50th on the weekend
- Lester will play his 49th
- Green his 48th
- and Beams plays his 23rd

My favorite post of the week, every week, well done LoR!

 

[chopperduck]

It is hard to get your head around. Last week we werent bad, and there is only 1 change to that team, so there is no reason we cant play well. Rocky, Rich, Redden all out is horrible on paper, but the only difference is Rocky from our performance last week.

Good chance for someone to step up this week.

 

[KissKiss]

Those numbers do look a lot better for us this week. Makes me feel a little more confident.

 

[POBT]

I think the issue is that West Coast have experience in the midfield with Priddis, Shuey, Masten, Hutchings (not so much in games played), Le Cras and Gaff all more experienced, both in terms of games played and in the specified role, than their Lions counterparts. The Eagles' inexperience is most evident on their bench whereas we'll have guys like Aish and Taylor probably playing key midfield roles, alongside midfield part-timers like Zorko. So even if numerically the experience difference is not significant, it is where the Lions are inexperienced which could be costly.

 

[The Golfing Lion]

A good start is essential to keep the energy up. West coast will want a stoppage game to play to their strengths. We are a show and it will be great to watch how the younger midfield go organising themselves constantly over the 4 quarters. May see a Adcock push into midfield for this reason to assist.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

The fact that we replaced a midfielder (statistically our best performed) with a half back flanker is the main worry for me.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Round 18 Lions vs. Gold Coast at the Gabba

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. GC 4)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 7 vs. GC 6
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 4 vs. GC 4
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 6 vs. GC 10
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 4 vs. GC 2
• 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. GC 0

Overall I think this match is fairly even experience wise. We have 1 more inexperienced players in in the 0-24 game category, but also have 3 more players in the 100+ categories. The bulk of the Gold Coast side are obviously in the middle (50-99) category.

In terms of average games played though, we come out on top with an average of 70.9 vs. 48.6. I think there is no reason why we can't win this one - it all depends which team really wants it the most.

By the way, Lester is playing his 50th game and will move up a category next week.

(Edit in red - late change for GC - Riska out, Herbet in)

 

[jackess]

Will be interesting to see how we lineup against Melbourne this week. Might be worth putting a few bets on based on LotR games analysis.

 

[Full Wingspan]

In terms of average games played though, we come out on top with an average of 70.9 vs. 48.6. I think there is no reason why we can't win this one - it all depends which team really wants it the most.

Not many people gave ourselves a chance last Saturday - I think you have come up with a very good statistic that can really give an accurate indication of a team's performance.

Experience is quite a significant factor (arguably the most important for many people) - in addition, you can come up with a fairly good tip if you factor talent, form, home ground/travel advantage and recovery.

 

[John]

I called us a 10 goal win prior to the game. Ask anyone who was with me. A couple of things made me call that. Strops are typical of a young team on the up and not knowing the season is not sprint but a marathon. And this thread. Very telling stats IMO.

 

[Caiphus]

Bellweather.

 

[POBT]

Bellweather.

The Eden-Monaro of threads!

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

I called us a 10 goal win prior to the game. Ask anyone who was with me. A couple of things made me call that. Strops are typical of a young team on the up and not knowing the season is not sprint but a marathon. And this thread. Very telling stats IMO.

Must have listened to a lot of Mike Williamson as a kid.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Will be interesting to see how we lineup against Melbourne this week. Might be worth putting a few bets on based on LotR games analysis.

I did have a quick look at the Melbourne team against Port.

I think people will be surprised at how experienced they are. They only had 3 players playing with less than 25 games experience (compared to our 7 against Gold Coast), and an average games experience tally of around 76 (compared to our 71).

So if that is still the case going into Sunday's game, then Melbourne will have a not insignificant experience edge. To have a better shot at winning the game one answer might be to drop a couple of our inexperienced players for a couple of experienced ones - although I can't see that happening.

Of course, it doesn't mean we won't be competitive or even win - this game seems like one that could definitely buck the trend if you take everything else into account. I think we are a really good chance of winning, although I am not sure I am personally going to pick us.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Round 19 Lions vs. Melbourne at Etihad

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. Dees 0)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 7 vs. Dees 3
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 3 vs. Dees 6
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 7 vs. Dees 7
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 4 vs. Dees 6
• 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Dees 0

As predicted the Lions go in with 7 players with less than 25 games experience to Melbourne's 3. Normally that indicates a big experience gap - but that is not necessarily the case this week as Melbourne has 3 more players than us in the 25 to 49 games category (they also have one more player in the 100+ games category).

In terms of average games played the Lions go in with 71.9 vs. Melbourne's 73.3. Overall, given we have clearly more very inexperienced players and it is away from home, Melbourne goes in with a modest experience advantage. I would be disappointed though if we are not very competitive throughout the game - there is still a very real chance we can win.

Player milestones this week - Green playing his 50th and Beams his 25th - both will go up a category next round.