interesting article by Derm

[unstable punt]

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/sport/afl/story/0,26576,24258988-19742,00.html

about the number 1 draft pick

 

[stabler]

I'm trying to work out from that article, what Derm thinks about Jack Watts. Here is the last paragraph:

'I have viewed footage of Watts and two other potential No. 1 picks, Daniel Rich and Nicholas Naitanui. If I was making a report to Jimmy, the report card on these pages would be a brief overview.'

Is he trying to compare Josh Kennedy with Jack Watts or is he suggesting criteria we use to pick our best player? I get the feeling Derm is trying to send Jimmy and our recruiting staff a message that Watts isn't as good a candidate as he is being pumped up to be, or have i completely missed the point on this one...

Anyway a decent article from Dermie, the importance of this pick should not be taken lightly. A good idea to get the opinions of Gazza, Neita and Schwartz aswel although i daresay Jim has already thought of this.

 

[unstable punt]

the thing is he doesn't give his opinion, the article stops just when you think he's going to give it, frustrating but l think Watts is the man. l just don't think Natanui would be worth it, he will be another Jeff White, great player but just not hard enough

 

[stabler]

I agree, Watts is what we need.
Also from Dermie's article he states that one of Kennedy's big letdowns was his inability to take strong overhead marks. Watching footage of Jack Watts on youtube, it seems Jack does not have the same problem as there are a number of big grabs overhead as wel as good leads.

Dermie actually does share his opinion of Jack Watts at the end of the article although it was cut by the editor due to being overly long. Here is the original:

'I have viewed footage of Watts and two other potential No. 1 picks, Daniel Rich and Nicholas Naitanui. If I was making a report to Jimmy, the report card on these pages would be a brief overview. Of course, the report would all be lies as the fact is, Jack Watts is quite possilbly the best footballer ever. I'm not kidding. Its like Gary Ablett and Wayne Carey both knocked up Lauren Jackson and the baby was delivered by Ron Barassi in the middle of the MCG. I hope like hell he falls to Hawthorn so we can trade Buddy and put a real star in our forward line. I pity any team that has to line up against Jack Watts. May god have mercy on us all.'

 

[unstable punt]

I agree, Watts is what we need.
Also from Dermie's article he states that one of Kennedy's big letdowns was his inability to take strong overhead marks. Watching footage of Jack Watts on youtube, it seems Jack does not have the same problem as there are a number of big grabs overhead as wel as good leads.

Dermie actually does share his opinion of Jack Watts at the end of the article although it was cut by the editor due to being overly long. Here is the original:

'I have viewed footage of Watts and two other potential No. 1 picks, Daniel Rich and Nicholas Naitanui. If I was making a report to Jimmy, the report card on these pages would be a brief overview. Of course, the report would all be lies as the fact is, Jack Watts is quite possilbly the best footballer ever. I'm not kidding. Its like Gary Ablett and Wayne Carey both knocked up Lauren Jackson and the baby was delivered by Ron Barassi in the middle of the MCG. I hope like hell he falls to Hawthorn so we can trade Buddy and put a real star in our forward line. I pity any team that has to line up against Jack Watts. May god have mercy on us all.'

lets hope its not far from the truth .................it would have to be artificial insemination coz l think Lauren bats for the other side

 

[Deenamite]

Of Jack Watts:

"He doesn't have a great turning circle."
"He doesn't have an appetite for tackling."
"Reasonable agility and pace but nothing exceptional."

And then the weirdest of them all:

"If you can wait, choose Naitanui with pick 1. If you think you can challenge in 2-3 years choose Rich. If you are prepared to wait to build and get the structure right Watts is your obvious selection. But you will have to wait longer than the other 2."

I'm sorry but there's no way in the world Watts will take longer to develop than Naitanui. And for a big man to run 20m in 2.72 seconds is exceptional, i don't care what anyone says. I've never really seen a 195cm bloke with the agility that Jack Watts has...

[YOUTUBE]wjuXc1SM-l8[/YOUTUBE]

 

[The Demon]

Disagree with Dermie about Watts and how long he will take to come up to senior level.

From what I've seen he looks pretty good.As for body size,Cale Morton is built like a toothpick and he is playing AFL seniors now.

I say, have faith in the MFC recruiters who's job it is to pick up the best players available for the MFC. I'll guarantee they would have done their homework and have analysed the upcoming draft inside out.

 

[McLean_4_Captain]

You need to click onto the other link in the article to get Dermie's assessment of each of Watts, Naitanui & Rich http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/sport/afl/story/0,26576,24260539-19742,00.html

I read that in the paper on the way to work and thought exactly the same thing Deenamite, Watts may take 2-3 years Naitanui is likely to take at least 3 years. Many people compare Watts to Riewoldt who won the raising star in his 2nd year, so i'd be disappointed for him to not be well on his way by his 3rd year.

HE IS a genuine top-fi ve choice in this draft, but I would recommend that he doesn’t play in 2009 at AFL level. Physically, he will get punished. But if Melbourne wants an excellent longterm prospect that will assist its structure from 2010 and beyond, then this boy is a target.

Physically almost any kid will get punnished in a key position. I wouldn't think that Bails is going to put him 1 out in the goalsquare from Round 1 and say "do your thing kid". Obviously he'll start in a pocket or on a flank, most likely playing on the 3rd tall defender.

Hmmm, do melbourne want an excellent longterm prospect to assist with out structure, nah Derm we'll be right. Of course we f_cking do you clown! I don't think we'd currently have a forward in the best 25 in the league, we need a star to build our forward line around for the next 10+ years. Next year does not matter, we wont make finals so we don't need him to do anything next year, we need him to start showing form in 2010 and starting to dominate in 2011.

I'd be happy for us to draft Watts and to not see him at all next year, or maybe for a few games late in the year ala Maric. He's still got to finish year 12 and he really needs some time to put some meat on his bones. He's skinny, but unlike Morton has the frame to bulk right up into a genuine KP size.

 

[TelkoTheGreat]

Since when did Dermott become such the expert on upcoming draftees ? 2/3 weeks ago ?

 

[richskee]

Heres the other article, interesting. Seems to rate Rich as the best, only because he's a ready made afl player...

• AFTER this weekend, half the clubs in the AFL turn their thoughts to the draft. Dermott Brereton analyses the top three prospects.

DANIEL RICH
¿ IS PLAYING senior football for Subiaco and it shows.
¿ ALREADY built for league football, he will play AFL in Round 1, 2009.
¿ IS AROUND the average for the AFL in the pace department.
¿ INCREDIBLY quick thought processes and very clean hands. He is seriously smart for a young footballer. He easily found space away from a tagger within three steps at bounce-downs and ball-ups.
¿ WHEN he is tackled, he has the uncanny ability to keep the ball free of his opponent’s grasp. And when pulled to the ground in a tackle, he can still hit the target by hand. His clear thinking with the ball is exceptional.
¿ I LOVED the fact that he appeared to have a fondness for contact. For a skilful kick of the ball, it didn’t faze him to be on the inside of a pack. And he had a desire to tackle others.
¿ HE WILL need to work on his running to get to the next contest. He will benefi t enormously from an AFL pre-season.
¿ HIS kicking can be summed up very briefl y: awesome. A leftfooter who can thump it as well as putting it lace-out.
¿ RICH is the most ready-made player in this year’s draft. If you imagine a slightly more agile Chad Fletcher with Luke Hodge’s left boot and Mick Fanning’s mop of surfy blond hair, that is what you’ll be seeing in Round 1 next year. He will be a 10-year player, that is a safe bet.

NICHOLAS NAITANUI
¿ TRUE ruckman size. Still thin through the shoulders, but will develop into a genuinely big man.
¿ HIS arms look too long for his body, giving him amazing reach on an already lofty height of 197cm.
¿ HAS some serious hang time when he jumps. But he is like a young colt who wants to have a run at every contest. League players will stand next to him and take away his spring; Brendan Lade will gobble him up without even jumping. He doesn’t appear to have a great knowledge of the craft other than youthful exuberance.
¿ HIS athleticism is fantastic.
¿ AFTER a ruck contest he instinctively chases the ball and becomes an extra midfi elder.
¿ WILL need to acclimatise gradually to AFL. Even though he is quick for his size, his dominance of junior footy means that he has not had to be consistently urgent.
¿ IT IS up for debate whether he has footy smarts. He sees the ball, runs to it and gets it. You can’t ask more than that. But I didn’t see any tricks that originated from above the shoulders.
¿ WILL be a marketing department’s dream come true in four years when he is ready to turn the game on its ear. He’s an agile ruckman with a cool name, islander heritage and dreadlocks to match Chance Bateman.

JACK WATTS
¿ GENUINE key-position height at 194cm, but is understandably still very lean. He has the frame to put muscle on in the coming years. Reasonable agility and pace, but nothing exceptional.
¿ LIKES to lead at the ball carrier from full-forward, but can get a little lost at half-forward.
¿ SET-shot kicking action is not copybook, but very effective. Like Jason Dunstall’s action, it is hardly poetry in motion, but nothing is out of line. Has an excellent temperament for set shots under pressure.
¿ CAN side-step nicely, but doesn’t have a great turning circle.
¿ IS VERY competent by foot on his non-dominant side.
¿ CONTESTS aerial duels brilliantly when he has a run at the ball. His hands above his head are very, very good. But when he is in a genuine push-and-shove marking duel, one-on-one against an opponent of comparable size, he falls over a lot. Some more meat on his frame will help this.
¿ I HOPE he has some anger inside, because he will need to develop into a big key-position player who is looked up to by his smaller teammates. He doesn’t seem to have a great appetite for tackling, either. He laid a few in the footage I have seen, but they were not the display of someone who instinctively likes that sort of contact.
¿ HE APPEARS to be a young man who has dominated his junior career and rarely been challenged because of his height, talent and excellent overhead marking ability. That tells me that he has coasted through juniors without developing an insatiable appetite for a physical contest. He is about to get a wake-up call in open-age football.
¿ HE IS a genuine top-fi ve choice in this draft, but I would recommend that he doesn’t play in 2009 at AFL level. Physically, he will get punished. But if Melbourne wants an excellent longterm prospect that will assist its structure from 2010 and beyond, then this boy is a target




In my opinion, MFC arn't going to be a threat for at least 3 to 4 years. That is about the time when Naitanui will be "Turning a game on it's ear".
I just dont want to think back to this time in 4 to 5 years and think, what if? This kid is like a mutant 'Half Buddy Half Machine' I say we take the risk, we pick up Naitanui and groom him into something the game has never seen. Everyone criticises him on his skills, yet he is only 18. Give him 5 years when Melbourne will actually be pushing for top four and we might have the most damaging most Exciting player in History... I have no doubts Jack Watts will make a decent forward, but he is only a forward, where Naita is a Freak and freaks dont come around often...

Anyway thats my opinion... Cheers

 

[Supermercado]

lets hope its not far from the truth .................it would have to be artificial insemination coz l think Lauren bats for the other side

Worst news ever, I'm broken hearted.

 

[McLean_4_Captain]

Maybe she just likes taller guys, so her options would be a bit limited

 

[cannons]

In my opinion, MFC arn't going to be a threat for at least 3 to 4 years. That is about the time when Naitanui will be "Turning a game on it's ear".
I just dont want to think back to this time in 4 to 5 years and think, what if? This kid is like a mutant 'Half Buddy Half Machine' I say we take the risk, we pick up Naitanui and groom him into something the game has never seen. Everyone criticises him on his skills, yet he is only 18. Give him 5 years when Melbourne will actually be pushing for top four and we might have the most damaging most Exciting player in History... I have no doubts Jack Watts will make a decent forward, but he is only a forward, where Naita is a Freak and freaks dont come around often...

Anyway thats my opinion... Cheers

I think Schwab's arrival helps Naitanui's chances. I know we here he won't be involved in the football dept. but I don't think we can expect him to steer clear totally.

I'm sort of with you on this one, I know Watts is the safer option, but Naitanui just provides this immense x-factor that has never been seen before at AFL level.

I also get the feeling Dermie talks up Rich due to the correlation between their haircuts

 

[00Stinger]

We are in trouble and don't need to take such a risk with Natanui, just stick to the safe option of Watts (we need a KP forward). If not go for Rich, a close friend of mine is a recruiting officer for St. Kilda and he's opinion is that Rich is the best midfielder to come through the draft for the last 3-4 years. We could draft him and be like West Coast (they won a premiership with an awesome midfield and no KP forwards that were any good)

 

[Tommyneu]

All aboard the Danny Rich train. This guy is a freak who can win clearances and kick long goals. I am sick of this rubbish about taking Watts because 'we have no forwards to kick to'. How do you think an ordinary footballer like Cam Mooney would go in the red and blue? He would struggle to kick 15 goals a season, yet with the freak midfield of Ablett, Bartel, Selwood and Corey he is made to look like one of the better Full Forwards in the game. The moral of that story was that a good midfield makes a mediocre forward line look good. A good forward-line cannot make a mediocre midfield look good in my opinion. Furthermore, how long is it since the MFC had a genuine goalkicking midfielder? I'm talking a 20 goal a season midfielder?

 

[jgb99]

Since when did Dermott become such the expert on upcoming draftees ? 2/3 weeks ago ?

No, if you read the article, he was consulted by Hawthorn in 2005 re: Josh Kennedy. I can't comment on his assessment of Watts, but he seems on the money with his assessments of Kennedy, Rich and Naitanui pre-draft. I also think 211 VFL/AFL games, 464 goals, 1 B&F, 3 AA, 5 premierships as a key forward would help

 

[DJ75]

lets hope its not far from the truth .................it would have to be artificial insemination coz l think Lauren bats for the other side

I'm not sure that's true, I thought she was a serious chance of having a crack at Yao Ming at the closing ceremony!

 

[Clean Heels]

I think what ppl dont realise - is that Jack Watts was potentially going to be one of the most talented point gurads in Australia - and wouldve possibly made a decent career in NBL, so that alone says that the kid has talent and athletism, skill and excellent hand/eye co-ordination..

He is very evasive on the footy field, moves well, I disagree that he will just be an 'out of the square forward' - as I believe that he could play anywhere on the ground and have an impact..

Daniel Rich is also very good, no doubt at all - he is easily the best kick I have seen of a kid going into the AFL, his tackling is top notch, ppl say he is a tad lazy - but thats easily fixed and he looks as though he can work very hard when he needs to..

Either way, both of these players would be an asset to Melbourne..

 

[cannons]

I think what ppl dont realise - is that Jack Watts was potentially going to be one of the most talented point gurads in Australia - and wouldve possibly made a decent career in NBL, so that alone says that the kid has talent and athletism, skill and excellent hand/eye co-ordination..

He is very evasive on the footy field, moves well, I disagree that he will just be an 'out of the square forward' - as I believe that he could play anywhere on the ground and have an impact..

Daniel Rich is also very good, no doubt at all - he is easily the best kick I have seen of a kid going into the AFL, his tackling is top notch, ppl say he is a tad lazy - but thats easily fixed and he looks as though he can work very hard when he needs to..

Either way, both of these players would be an asset to Melbourne..

I'm guessing you aren't keen on Naitanui

 

[CaptainDavey]

All signs are pointing towards Watts. True Nat is a freak, but we need a key forward more than anything, there's nothing to suggest that Watts cannot be a 'marketing dream' and he is a Victorian lad of course. I think the fact Nat is from WA could really hurt us in the future. I'm all for Watts, irrespective of what Dermie may think.

I'd rather go the safe option than the risk. People would draw comparisons to Buddy but the thing is, Buddy could always play it was just his attitude that concerned most. Nat hasn't grasped the game completely yet and as a result, I wouldn't want to gamble the #1 pick on a project player. Go with what we need/want

 

[McLean_4_Captain]

No, if you read the article, he was consulted by Hawthorn in 2005 re: Josh Kennedy. I can't comment on his assessment of Watts, but he seems on the money with his assessments of Kennedy, Rich and Naitanui pre-draft. I also think 211 VFL/AFL games, 464 goals, 1 B&F, 3 AA, 5 premierships as a key forward would help

Everyone thought that 307 VFL/AFL games, 335 goals, 4 B&Fs, 2 AA, 3 premierships & 3 years as captain would help Tim Watson be a good coach, we all know how that worked out.

Some players are instinctive, Dermott is one who falls into this category. These are the sort of players who will never make good coaches and will most likely end up being a crappy special comments commentator (Schwarz is another great example).

It's a very lopsided article. He says almost nothing critical about Rich and little about Naitanui, but goes into great length to say that Watts has lots of flaws.

Of all these players Watts is the one he's in the best position to judge and he does so overly critically. It actually seems like Dermie doesn't like either Watts or Kennedy because they're not pack crashers, but he needs to realises other players who play the same position can have other skills and be just as good.

I bet you he rates Brown as the best player in the comp, and that would be because he plays the game most similar to the way he played

 

[master bate]

Dermie down playing a CHF how amazing, since he retired he has only rated Jonathan Brown. That said I agree with most of what he says about Watts, but still think he is right there in terms of top 3, his excellent hands combined with good agility and goal kicking make him a great prospect. I think we know plenty about all these guys and obviously like all players they have flaws, and in terms of risk there is plenty there with Naitanui and Watts. However in 10 years time the 3 guys could turn out like this - Rich = Hodge, Watts = Reiwaldt and Naitanui = Cox combined with Franklin style hype, so who would you want then? I'm happy knowing that we will have one of them at the club.

 

[Clean Heels]

Id be interested in Gary Lyons assessment of Jack Watts..

Watts or Rich, either way they are worthy number 1 picks..

Hartlett would be the next best draftee, he has all the tools, the kids a ball magnet, evasive, uses the ball well - plays inside and out, kicks long..

Id be very suprised if we were even considering Nick Nat, regardless of whether we get Warnock or not..

 

[RandB]

I thought that wasn't a bad article by Derm, I think he is giving some pretty honest appraisals. Having said that, we need to put some sort of context into the position Hawthorn were in compared to the position Melbourne are in now.

One very important factor IMO:

"At the previous draft Hawthorn had recruited Jarryd Roughead and Lance Franklin."

ok, so at the time (of considering Kennedy) not many people knew (for absolute certainty) that both Franklin and Roughead would be so dangerous in future years. Still, they were two young tall forward options. At Melbourne do we have any genuine young tall forward prospects? Newton is the only youngster for that kind of mould and to be honest I am not holding my breath.

So the question I ask is: regardless of their evaluation of Kennedy as a forward (ie worthy of 3rd pick or 10th pick) would Hawthorn have picked him if they had not had the other younger talls on their list?

Like I said, I think as players Derm gave pretty good assessments of them but he isn't giving our needs as a club the same kind of consideration or at least evaluation.