Opinion Is it time for a draft lottery?

It it time for a AFL draft lottery?


  • Total voters
    74

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LukeParkerno1

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Sep 23, 2005
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Come on mate....
We had plenty of years down the bottom.
Cotchin was pick 2, Martin 3, Rance 18, Reiwoldt 13.
Deledio was our only #1 and that was Buddys year...ask the Hawks how they ranked the 2004 draft?
Bet you'd have been thrilled if that Marti pick turned into pick 8...or Cotchin Turning into pick 6...and you missing both!
 

Wild Bill

Brownlow Medallist
May 28, 2013
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Absolutely hate the idea of a lottery, can you imagine the uproar if a team that finished say 13th and won 9-10 games got the number 1 selection in front of a team that finished with the spoon and only won a 2-3 games, patently unfair.
What if these 2 teams are 3-8 at the half way mark and team A puts the cue in the rack wins 3 games for the year and team B continue to fight and win 6 more games for the year??
 

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LukeParkerno1

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If there was a lottery thats obviously the risk.
There are always quality players in the top 10
It comes as zero shock that you are for this lottery the minute your team is in the top 4 and is contending and any move up via a lottery is a bonus. If you are in the bottom four you need access to the elite talents. The only lottery I'd somewhat support would be one in the bottom 4, but even then it's silly, the team coming 5th last would tank to come 4th last. It works in the US as there are twice the amount of teams.
 

Jason mp

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Aug 31, 2015
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What if these 2 teams are 3-8 at the half way mark and team A puts the cue in the rack wins 3 games for the year and team B continue to fight and win 6 more games for the year??
It'll have zero affect on the perceived tanking IMO, teams could tank to get more balls in the lottery or to get into the lower group that goes into the lottery for the possible number 1 selection. The tanking issue is way over stated IMO, the last team in the competition should get the number 1 selection.
 

L_W_P

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Sep 23, 2009
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Hard NO to the lottery.


Big YES to the 'WHEEL" - http://grantland.com/the-triangle/t...g-good-bye-to-the-lottery-hello-to-the-wheel/

http://www.nbadraftwheel.com/


Also I would drop the minimum on the Salary Cap to 80% and allow teams to bank the difference for a 3-5 year window. Lets the crap teams save money by not having to overpay middle of the road players and then go BANG in free agency (as well as retaining top players) after getting a few picks through the door.

Free agency compo could also be tied to top picks.

When Franklin left the Hawks they could choose when to cash it in. Immediately, to get a player through the door and developing or in a future season, to tie it with a lower pick. They might even decide to use it in a year when they have a number of F/S or NGA options to pay for.

Heaps of room to improve the current system by switching to THE WHEEL
 
Last edited:

Coops93

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Aug 19, 2015
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It'll have zero affect on the perceived tanking IMO, teams could tank to get more balls in the lottery or to get into the lower group that goes into the lottery for the possible number 1 selection. The tanking issue is way over stated IMO, the last team in the competition should get the number 1 selection.
It won't have "zero" effect, it'll have a negative effect. It'll only lead to more tanking by more teams.
 

Caj

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Jul 23, 2004
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Come on mate....
We had plenty of years down the bottom.
Cotchin was pick 2, Martin 3, Rance 18, Reiwoldt 13.
Deledio was our only #1 and that was Buddys year...ask the Hawks how they ranked the 2004 draft?
I'm sure you would've been thrilled if you ended up with Gary Rohan and Jarrad Grant instead of Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin
 

bungwahl

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Jul 8, 2008
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With American sports the main issue is that the sport itself is fairly dull, so the basis of the professional competitions centre around the drama. They focus on building up the characters, rivalries and adding dramatic twists like draft lotteries.

It’s great - adds to the theatre etc. Not sure we need it in the AFL just yet.
 

Alphonse_

Matching On Together
Jul 18, 2018
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There are too many variables like Father/Son and Academy picks for a lottery to come in.

Especially now with Free Agency and big F/As going to all the top clubs, the bottom ranked clubs need first dibs on the best young talent.

To sum up, a Lottery shouldn't and won't be brought in, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
 

HavUEvaSeenTheRain

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 20, 2006
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Come on mate....
We had plenty of years down the bottom.
Cotchin was pick 2, Martin 3, Rance 18, Reiwoldt 13.
Deledio was our only #1 and that was Buddys year...ask the Hawks how they ranked the 2004 draft?
Though Rance was a PP as was Deledio.

Picking kids out of high school rather than college and 18 on the field compared to 5 is the reason we don’t need a lottery.
 

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Nugett

Premiership Player
Apr 2, 2017
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Love the NBA and think they do it very well, but I don’t think we need it.

Reckon we’ve more or less killed tanking already, especially since the abolition of the priority pick.

If you introduce the lottery you take a step towards removing equalization and the cyclical nature of the ladder. And I think that’d be a real shame.
I’m of a different opinion, I think a team about 12th would be more beneficial of the first round pick, as it means they should be qualifying for finals the following year. Where as the bottom team generally takes 3-5 years to start to propel themselves up the ladder. If you held the lottery before the draft and a higher team gets the first pick, there is a higher chance of it being traded, as the bottom teams are very conservative with trading that pick out. So could open up a lot more options, then what the system currently allows.
 

Scotland

TheBrownDog
May 5, 2006
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I don't know why people are against a lottery.

We had 4 teams on 12 wins outside the 8 and Geelong the last one in on 13. You reckon any of those teams are going to tank Rd 23 for a 1% chance at getting pick 1?

Drafting 18 year olds is an inexact science and the #1 bring tag brings excessive pressure for club and player.
 

TradeDraft

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Oct 18, 2009
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Yes I know its an American idea but the results yesterdays NBA lottery resulted in should encourage the AFL to introduce a lottery.
The New Orleans Pelicans who only had a 6% chance of getting the #1 pick ended up with it.
3 teams that blatantly tanked all year ended up with the 3rd (Knicks) 5th (Cavs) and 6th (Suns). Those 3 teams had a 14% chance of getting the #1 pick
The talk in the NBA at the moment is that this years draft lottery has killed tanking.
Is it time to bring it into AFL?
No One player can Change a Team like they can do in Basketball.

We don't Need a Lottery
 

_M_16_

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Don't need a lottery. Almost ALL number one picks never end up being the number one player from that draft anyway in every sport. The draft itself is already a lottery. The number one pick is just used to build excitement amongst the holding teams fans that they will get the "best player in the draft". Walsh is the only number one pick from recent years that may live up to the hype of that pick.
 

L_W_P

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Sep 23, 2009
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I don't know why people are against a lottery.

We had 4 teams on 12 wins outside the 8 and Geelong the last one in on 13. You reckon any of those teams are going to tank Rd 23 for a 1% chance at getting pick 1?

Drafting 18 year olds is an inexact science and the #1 bring tag brings excessive pressure for club and player.
It's not really those teams that would be an issue.

The 'tanking' debate would simply rise from the bottom 1-3 teams to a group of 4-6 teams all in a race to the bottom.

If St Kilda aren't in a position to make finals by say round 15, then the questions becomes "Do we fight it out and get a pick around 8-10 or do we tank and put ourselves in the best spot for a shot at the #1 pick in the draft, even if we dont finish last?"
 

Jazny

Watching the Sunset
Nov 2, 2014
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Yes! there is no incentive to win the last game if you are on bottom of the ladder.

Bottom teams gets the home game, and they play for picks.
 

Scotland

TheBrownDog
May 5, 2006
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It's not really those teams that would be an issue.

The 'tanking' debate would simply rise from the bottom 1-3 teams to a group of 4-6 teams all in a race to the bottom.

If St Kilda aren't in a position to make finals by say round 15, then the questions becomes "Do we fight it out and get a pick around 8-10 or do we tank and put ourselves in the best spot for a shot at the #1 pick in the draft, even if we dont finish last?"
The probabilities are still pretty low.

The NBA system for example is this:
  1. 140 combinations, 14.0% chance of receiving the No. 1 pick
  2. 140 combinations, 14.0% chance
  3. 140 combinations, 14.0% chance
  4. 125 combinations, 12.5% chance
  5. 105 combinations, 10.5% chance
  6. 90 combinations, 9.0% chance
  7. 75 combinations, 7.5% chance
  8. 60 combinations, 6.0% chance
  9. 45 combinations, 4.5% chance
  10. 30 combinations, 3.0% chance
  11. 20 combinations, 2.0% chance
  12. 15 combinations, 1.5% chance
  13. 10 combinations, 1.0% chance
  14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance
In the AFL you would just knock out 11-14 and reallocate those 80 selections accordingly. Finishing 3 gives you a 14% chance of the #1 pick compared to 12.5% for 15th and 10.5% for 14th. I don't see a huge motivation for clubs dropping out of finals contention to tank the last few games.

If you finish last in the system above you'll get a pick 1-5. 2nd last 1-6, 3rd last 1-7, 4th last 1-8 and 5th last 1-9. If you finish 10th (which would be the highest finishing non finalist in the AFL) then you have a combined chance of getting a pick 1-4, no chance of a pick 5-9 and an 86% chance of a pick 10-12.
 

Coach_Required

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Feb 19, 2008
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Bet you'd have been thrilled if that Marti pick turned into pick 8...or Cotchin Turning into pick 6...and you missing both!
Cotchin was pick 2 but Richmond won the spoon that year and should have had pick 1, Carlton got a priority pick and picked Kruezer ahead of us.

Not sure how many times in the history of the draft has the bottom team not been given pick 1 (taking away the years GWS & Gold Coast came on board).
 

Marc_Remillard

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Jan 4, 2015
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If you introduce the lottery you take a step towards removing equalization and the cyclical nature of the ladder. And I think that’d be a real shame.
I think we've already taken this step with academies and all the other ways clubs can get players on their list.
 

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