Opinion Is it time for a draft lottery?

It it time for a AFL draft lottery?


  • Total voters
    63

Turbocat

Premium Platinum
Dec 10, 2003
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Love the NBA and think they do it very well, but I don’t think we need it.

Reckon we’ve more or less killed tanking already, especially since the abolition of the priority pick.

If you introduce the lottery you take a step towards removing equalization and the cyclical nature of the ladder. And I think that’d be a real shame.
I just cant see one of our teams having the same reaction as the Pels ... they draft players far closer to being ready.

The AFL have actually uped the disincentive of tanking by simply making other streams of player acquisition far more accessible. FA's and 2nd level players etc.
 

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Monkey King

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 31, 2007
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Bad idea. No sensible reason for its introduction. Tanking? Who the hell tanks to get a pick or two higher in the draft? The abolition of the PP killed that. The dumbest part is it could encourage low-mid range to tank once finals are out of the picture, coz the difference between finishing 7th or 6th could be as high as pick 9 versus pick one.

It’s such a dumb idea, I wouldn’t be surprised if Gil has already planned the rollout.
 

100action

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 18, 2009
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Absolutely hate the idea of a lottery, can you imagine the uproar if a team that finished say 13th and won 9-10 games got the number 1 selection in front of a team that finished with the spoon and only won a 2-3 games, patently unfair.
Meh stops teams like carlton and Melbourne abusing the system and causing every other club who happen to be proven legitimate grief.
 

eastfreo75

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 11, 2011
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Hard NO to the lottery.


Big YES to the 'WHEEL" - http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nbas-possible-solution-for-tanking-good-bye-to-the-lottery-hello-to-the-wheel/

http://www.nbadraftwheel.com/


Also I would drop the minimum on the Salary Cap to 80% and allow teams to bank the difference for a 3-5 year window. Lets the crap teams save money by not having to overpay middle of the road players and then go BANG in free agency (as well as retaining top players) after getting a few picks through the door.

Free agency compo could also be tied to top picks.

When Franklin left the Hawks they could choose when to cash it in. Immediately, to get a player through the door and developing or in a future season, to tie it with a lower pick. They might even decide to use it in a year when they have a number of F/S or NGA options to pay for.

Heaps of room to improve the current system by switching to THE WHEEL
Totally agree about 80%.

Enable teams to really go after high priced free agents.
 

Coasters7

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Nov 27, 2014
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Another thing for the AFL to get their hands all over. Go down the NBA route of not televising the lottery draw and we’d get a few cheeky Essendon and Hawthorn top 5 picks after finishing just outside the 8.. just like the Lakers conveniently moved their way up 8 spots..
 

Socrates2

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 11, 2015
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Yes definately, it will stop the inevitable tanking that occurs.
 

_M_16_

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Nov 26, 2009
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Yes definately, it will stop the inevitable tanking that occurs.
You realize the top 1-2 picks seldom end up being the top 1-2 players of that draft year anyway? The draft itself is a lottery, teams can tank all they want, doesn't mean anything. Carlton have a hundred top end first round picks and are still pretty average. Lottery will just punish teams genuinely bottoming out for the what, once every couple of decades legit tank?
 

Socrates2

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 11, 2015
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You realize the top 1-2 picks seldom end up being the top 1-2 players of that draft year anyway? The draft itself is a lottery, teams can tank all they want, doesn't mean anything. Carlton have a hundred top end first round picks and are still pretty average. Lottery will just punish teams genuinely bottoming out for the what, once every couple of decades legit tank?
Watch North Melboure play the kids in the last 6 games, same thing as tanking.
 

_M_16_

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Watch North Melboure play the kids in the last 6 games, same thing as tanking.
They might as well? Their better players are old as, and they are likely looking at a few lean years down the bottom. Nothing wrong with playing kids once season is over and looking to the future and seeing who is capable of playing a role on the team in the years to come. Even if they do that, bit harsh to throw the tanking label around. Damned if they do, damned if they don't kind of thing. Tanking no doubt has happened at points in AFL history, but its massively an overused label and happens no where near as much as what a few seem to think.

They could deliberately tank all they want and get a top two pick, and they most likely won't even end up being one of the top five picks in that draft period anyway, so no real benefit in doing so, despite many seeming to think the number one pick is the single most important pick in a draft.
 

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Socrates2

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 11, 2015
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They might as well? Their better players are old as, and they are likely looking at a few lean years down the bottom. Nothing wrong with playing kids once season is over and looking to the future and seeing who is capable of playing a role on the team in the years to come. Even if they do that, bit harsh to throw the tanking label around. Damned if they do, damned if they don't kind of thing. Tanking no doubt has happened at points in AFL history, but its massively an overused label and happens no where near as much as what a few seem to think.

They could deliberately tank all they want and get a top two pick, and they most likely won't even end up being one of the top five picks in that draft period anyway, so no real benefit in doing so, despite many seeming to think the number one pick is the single most important pick in a draft.
Pick one is worth more than pick 2 and so on.Plus it's not right that Carlton gets the pick one every year as a reward for their mismanagement. The lottery would work by giving 9th one ball , 10th two balls ect.The 18th ranked team will still more than likely get a high pick.
 

_M_16_

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Pick one is worth more than pick 2 and so on.Plus it's not right that Carlton gets the pick one every year as a reward for their mismanagement. The lottery would work by giving 9th one ball , 10th two balls ect.The 18th ranked team will still more than likely get a high pick.
That's true, but put your team in a hypothetical situation. Tigers finish 18th, every team has crap periods at some point. And say its not due to poor recruiting, list management, and lack of player development like say Carlton. Your team just hit the wall after a brilliant period of time, your players all retired and those that are left are past their best, and you don't have a heap of great kids at the moment, because most teams hanging around the top tend to focus on the now more than the future. Whilst the odds of you getting pick one is still high, wouldn't you be quiet pissed off if your pick ended up being 7 or 8? I mean would be bloody unlucky, because the odds of that happening are low, and a team with an even record gets pick 1? I'd be livid as a fan

I understand your grudge about the Blues shouldn't be rewarded for poor effort year in and out, but lets be honest, they haven't been rewarded because most their top end picks haven't lived up to it, they are still anchored down the bottom. I don't want to reward tanking teams or poorly managed teams no more than you do. But would need to be done a way that doesn't punish teams that have done no wrong is my main point of it all, that's my only grudge against the lottery.

My team is desperate for a couple of KPP's, we are going to finish low because we are young and inconsistent and still have a few holes to fill, not because we are tanking. The lottery could mean the difference of being bumped from say pick 3, to 6 and missing out on a good tall.
 

Socrates2

Norm Smith Medallist
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That's true, but put your team in a hypothetical situation. Tigers finish 18th, every team has crap periods at some point. And say its not due to poor recruiting, list management, and lack of player development like say Carlton. Your team just hit the wall after a brilliant period of time, your players all retired and those that are left are past their best, and you don't have a heap of great kids at the moment, because most teams hanging around the top tend to focus on the now more than the future. Whilst the odds of you getting pick one is still high, wouldn't you be quiet pissed off if your pick ended up being 7 or 8? I mean would be bloody unlucky, because the odds of that happening are low, and a team with an even record gets pick 1? I'd be livid as a fan

I understand your grudge about the Blues shouldn't be rewarded for poor effort year in and out, but lets be honest, they haven't been rewarded because most their top end picks haven't lived up to it, they are still anchored down the bottom. I don't want to reward tanking teams or poorly managed teams no more than you do. But would need to be done a way that doesn't punish teams that have done no wrong is my main point of it all, that's my only grudge against the lottery.

My team is desperate for a couple of KPP's, we are going to finish low because we are young and inconsistent and still have a few holes to fill, not because we are tanking. The lottery could mean the difference of being bumped from say pick 3, to 6 and missing out on a good tall.
It wouldn't make much of a difference imo.We got Balta at pick 25 .It's possible that Carlton could get 5 pick ones in a row and it's not fair on the player drafted as he goes to a club he can't succeed at.
 

captain cotch 9

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It's got pros and cons. It'll probably benefit teams like Carlton, GC for years.
Why? They are always on the bottom so they would get a higher % of getting the #1 but wouldnt be gaurentee it
I would argue that it would benifit teams like Essendon, North, Freo ect that are always around the mark but havent been able to take the next step.
Imagine if the Dogs finish 9th this year and get the #1 pick. It may help get them into the 4 next year
 

Gysberts2Bate

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Jun 12, 2013
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Pick one is worth more than pick 2 and so on.Plus it's not right that Carlton gets the pick one every year as a reward for their mismanagement. The lottery would work by giving 9th one ball , 10th two balls ect.The 18th ranked team will still more than likely get a high pick.
It's less fair on the #1 pick to have to go to Carlton each year.
 

Pea Nut

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 9, 2013
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It would put an end to clubs trading future first's as it would become too risky. As an example, if a lottery were in place, GWS could land pick 1 at the end of this year to go with Essendon's first last year for Shiel. Go deep in finals, or possibly win it, and walk away with pick 1. Would that mean high profile players that are in contract would suddenly become untradeable as no club would be willing to trade their future first ?? Trading future first's is already fraught with risk. A lottery would just take it to another level.
 

Gysberts2Bate

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It would put an end to clubs trading future first's as it would become too risky. As an example, if a lottery were in place, GWS could land pick 1 at the end of this year to go with Essendon's first last year for Shiel. Go deep in finals, or possibly win it, and walk away with pick 1. Would that mean high profile players that are in contract would suddenly become untradeable as no club would be willing to trade their future first ?? Trading future first's is already fraught with risk. A lottery would just take it to another level.
A lottery gives the premier a 1/171 (0.6%) chance of getting the #1 pick. That's arguably not much higher than the existing chance of pick 18 turning out to be the best player in the draft.
 

Pea Nut

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 9, 2013
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A lottery gives the premier a 1/171 (0.6%) chance of getting the #1 pick. That's arguably not much higher than the existing chance of pick 18 turning out to be the best player in the draft.
Did you read my post ?? It was about the fact that Essendon have traded their future first to GWS. While Essendon aren't bottom 2 material, they would be a genuine contender for a pick 1 in a lottery system.
 

captain cotch 9

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It would put an end to clubs trading future first's as it would become too risky. As an example, if a lottery were in place, GWS could land pick 1 at the end of this year to go with Essendon's first last year for Shiel. Go deep in finals, or possibly win it, and walk away with pick 1. Would that mean high profile players that are in contract would suddenly become untradeable as no club would be willing to trade their future first ?? Trading future first's is already fraught with risk. A lottery would just take it to another level.
In the NBA the teams can "protect" their future picks.
Eg. the spurs could trade their 2021 1st round pick top 3 protected. Meaning if they end up with a top 3 they keep it and they need to give something else of significance to the team they had the trade with
 

00Stinger

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I don't mind it - brings some drama and stops tanking.

Trading 1st round picks has helped reduced tanking - for example the Blues, Crows & Ess will win as many games as possible this year.
It brings drama but doesn't stop tanking.

The NBA is a great example of this. The NFL that doesn't have the lottery has less tanking
 

Adz2332

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 9, 2010
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yer i like it if they bring in a mid season trade.
teams trading away players mid season could be to easy to tank.
At least a lotto system sorta stops that a little
 

Pea Nut

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 9, 2013
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In the NBA the teams can "protect" their future picks.
Eg. the spurs could trade their 2021 1st round pick top 3 protected. Meaning if they end up with a top 3 they keep it and they need to give something else of significance to the team they had the trade with
That protection would also add to ensure even less teams trade away future first rounders.
 

Johnny Bananas

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Sep 10, 2010
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No, because Cripps shows that one star player doesn't change a team, the way it does in the NBA. Besides, you have teams like Carlton that trade away high picks, and they're hardly the first ones to do so. The whole point of a draft is equalisation, and when teams like Carlton stay in the dumps for years on end, what's the point in reducing that equalisation?
 
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