Is the AFL a 2 Tiered Competition?

[Black Saab]

Is the AFL becoming a two tiered comp where the line between the haves and have nots is becoming more and more set in stone?

Is the AFL mimicking either the EPL or Formula 1 where there are only ever a few teams that can really win it and all the others just become nothing more than stage props adding theatre to the spectacle of dominance the top teams enjoy.

Consider this season's ladder, the position of the teams and the history of success achieved in terms of premierships won in the last 20 years.

In the top 8 at the moment 4 teams that make up the top 6 have won 9 of the premierships in the last 10 years.

They are:
Hawks 4
Swans 1
Cats 3
Eagles 1

3 teams in the top 8 have won Premierships in the last 20 years.
They are:
Swans 1
Crows 2
Kangaroos 2

The only other 2 teams left in the top 8 who haven't won a flag are the Giants where the stats don't really apply and the Bulldogs who have the longest drought going of 6 decades since their last flag. Despite finals appearances the Dogs haven't made it to a grand final in ages and certainly not in the last 20 years.

At the other end, the 10 bottom teams on the ladder at the moment have had very little success between them over the last 20 years.

Only 1 team of the bottom 10 have won a flag in the last 10 years and that was Collingwood in 2010.

3 other teams in the bottom 10 have won at least won flag in the last 20 years and they are:

Power 1
Lions 3
Bombers 1

5 of the bottom 10 clubs have not won a flag in 20 years or more (not including Gold Coast) and 1 team has never won it since joining the comp in 1995 and that is Fremantle.

Could the fact that the Saints and Dockers have had chances but missed out be evidence that there is a growing division that some teams are destined to win whilst others aren't?

Are some clubs bound to enjoy the occasional exciting win of a home and away round whilst others can expect greater glory in the finals?

With the reality of destination clubs emerging is the AFL warping into a two tiered comp despite salary cap strictures? In other words is the AFL going the way of the EPL just with a salary cap imposed? Can a salary cap guard against such imbalances? Is history now telling a story?

 

[Roddy]

No, the AFL is a league that has pretty comprehensive equalisation measures in place, where extremely smart and well run clubs can use those measures intelligently and effectively to get themselves into positions of power, and keep themselves there. Where the current powerhouse club, who has won 4 of the last 9 flags, including a threepeat, finished 14th just over a decade ago. Where lesser clubs must figure out ways and means of utilising the measures, and work hard and smart, to bring themselves up to the level of the power clubs.

 

[Tyler Hodges]

pre-GWS the AFL was one of the most balanced equalisation sports in the world along with the NFL who's model they copied thankfully. At some point you have to just acknowledge that there are clubs that are managed extremely well and some extremely poorly.

 

[randyzany]

The dominance of some clubs in the last couple of years can be directly linked to weakening effect the compromised drafts has had on the league. Things should return to normal as early as next year, that is assuming GWS don't become an unstoppable juggernaut due to the generous draft concessions given to them.

The architect and most of the blame for the current state of the game/league lies at the feet of the fat dimwit who was hellbent on being responsible for 'growing' the game (more like lining his own pockets) in non-footy areas by setting up vanity project franchises in West Sydney and the Gold Coast. He went over the top though in trying to make them viable for at least a decade by gifting them a ridiculous amount of draft concessions that has denied other established clubs an opportunity to build a list capable of contending for a flag.

 

[mightymouse75]

Andrew dimwits air apparent will continue the same agenda.

 

[glenn2479]

The AFL has set up a system that they can manipulate at every step. It is a joke that we do not have a competition where everyone plays each other once. You cannot underestimate the impact of the draw on 'equalization'. Until you fix that you can never start with an equal playing field. The future 2 tiered system will be GWS/ Gold Coast followed by the rest.

 

[Black Saab]

The AFL has set up a system that they can manipulate at every step. It is a joke that we do not have a competition where everyone plays each other once. You cannot underestimate the impact of the draw on 'equalization'. Until you fix that you can never start with an equal playing field. The future 2 tiered system will be GWS/ Gold Coast followed by the rest.

Very good point re the fixturing.

 

[DemonZombie_001]

And what team out of those few teams that could win it won the EPL this year. That would be Leicester City.... not one of the few.

So only five teams have won the grand final in the last 10 years... That is pretty much the same pattern for 2000 to 2009, 1990 and 1999, 1980 to 1989 and 1970 to 1979...

Link here to all grand final winners:-

http://www.topendsports.com/sport/afl/grand-finalists.htm

Next year some teams are going to drop from the giddy heights of the top 8, and some teams are going to crawl out of the gutter of the lowly bottom eight. Just like every year before it seems.

 

[Richo83]

Not sure us Richmond fans pouting will achieve much. People talk about fixturing and concessions but off-field management and coaching is a big thing these days.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

it's not a 2 tiered competition. there are clubs that know how to develop a list and there are clubs that don't. the ones that can develop have sustained success because they don't need high draft picks to get good players, and the ones that can't develop are cellar dwellers in perpetuity because the only time they get a good player is when they get a high draft pick (talking about richmond and carlton mostly).

 

[CD Xbow]

The AFL has set up a system that they can manipulate at every step. It is a joke that we do not have a competition where everyone plays each other once. You cannot underestimate the impact of the draw on 'equalization'. Until you fix that you can never start with an equal playing field. The future 2 tiered system will be GWS/ Gold Coast followed by the rest.

I have a different take on the draw. I think the AFL intent is to help the lower teams during the H&A season by giving them an easier run. Many people object to this because it is seen as not fair, in a mathematical sense, and I can see that.

I actually think it has another, undesired effect, over time it actually builds a group of half a dozen or less 'strong' clubs, who end up progressively stronger. Come finals time they are the only ones with a show of winning the big dance. Some Hawk supporters complain about tough draws, but I think it has made us better.

 

[Furn2]

The GWS GC concessions have not effected the premierships over the last few years.

Neither of those sides has even made the finals in that time so how is 1/16 of that talent going to make an average team premiers ? It's a myth. The effect of those drafts will only start to be seen from this year onwards as those players begin to peak.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

and there's a lot of this 'it's the AFL's fault my team is s**t' mentality which really isn't helping either

 

[M Malice]

The GWS GC concessions have not effected the premierships over the last few years.

Neither of those sides has even made the finals in that time so how is 1/16 of that talent going to make an average team premiers ? It's a myth. The effect of those drafts will only start to be seen from this year onwards as those players begin to peak.

it is more that the 80 or so players that went to the giants and suns are not distributed over the other 16 clubs eg. players like Tom Lynch, Sam May, Dion Prestia, Jeremy Cameron, Dylan Sheil, Toby Greene, Devon Smith to name a few would have come in handy for a few other sides especially over the next few years when they are at their peak. also the compromising of the draft that is continuing is an issue, the giants and suns have been able to stockpile multiple round 1 and 2 draft picks this year due to the massive amount of talent they have been gifted by an overly generous draft leg up in the first couple of years IMO.

 

[Black Saab]

And what team out of those few teams that could win it won the EPL this year. That would be Leicester City.... not one of the few.

So only five teams have won the grand final in the last 10 years... That is pretty much the same pattern for 2000 to 2009, 1990 and 1999, 1980 to 1989 and 1970 to 1979...

Link here to all grand final winners:-

http://www.topendsports.com/sport/afl/grand-finalists.htm

Next year some teams are going to drop from the giddy heights of the top 8, and some teams are going to crawl out of the gutter of the lowly bottom eight. Just like every year before it seems.

But teams like Leicester City winning are fairy tale realities not the norm. They happen once in a blue moon hence the imbalance. Admittedly the EPL is in far dire straits with their pay to win system and it is much harder for the have nots to be legit contenders in such a system.

 

[randyzany]

The GWS GC concessions have not effected the premierships over the last few years.

Neither of those sides has even made the finals in that time so how is 1/16 of that talent going to make an average team premiers ? It's a myth. The effect of those drafts will only start to be seen from this year onwards as those players begin to peak.

Why do you think a team like Geelong has been able to hang around the Top 4/Top 8 5 years after winning their last flag in 2011? Most teams who go through a successful period eventually have to 'bottom out', yet Geelong has somehow magically avoided that. Hmmmmm it might just have something to do with how watered down the league has become making a our 'transition period' look better than it should be.

Yes some of it has to do with Geelong's good development and list management but there's definitely something else at play as well, meaning the fact that other sides have been negatively impacted by been denied the best talent in the land with most of the future champs being funneled to 2 franchises.

 

[Furn2]

Why do you think a team like Geelong has been able to hang around the Top 4/Top 8 5 years after winning their last flag in 2011? Most teams who go through a successful period eventually have to 'bottom out', yet Geelong has somehow magically avoided that. Hmmmmm it might just have something to do with how watered down the league has become making a our 'transition period' look better than it should be.

Yes some of it has to do with Geelong's good development and list management but there's definitely something else at play as well, meaning the fact that other sides have been negatively impacted by been denied the best talent in the land with most of the future champs being funneled to 2 franchises.

So name some players and the teams they could have gone to and would have made contenders as 18-19-20 year olds.

 

[glenn2479]

I have a different take on the draw. I think the AFL intent is to help the lower teams during the H&A season by giving them an easier run. Many people object to this because it is seen as not fair, in a mathematical sense, and I can see that.

I actually think it has another, undesired effect, over time it actually builds a group of half a dozen or less 'strong' clubs, who end up progressively stronger. Come finals time they are the only ones with a show of winning the big dance. Some Hawk supporters complain about tough draws, but I think it has made us better.

It's a good point. The Afl's manipulation of the draft to 'balance ' the competition is tampering on a most dangerous level. In essence, the top 6 bracket of clubs get not just a 'harder draw', they also get a better level of tougher sustained competition in preparation for finals. It produces teams that play at a higher level for longer. Conversely, lower placed teams get more games against lowly teams and are struggling to get any further than 9th because if they happen to play 2 top teams in consecutive weeks they get smashed off the park.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

Why do you think a team like Geelong has been able to hang around the Top 4/Top 8 5 years after winning their last flag in 2011? Most teams who go through a successful period eventually have to 'bottom out', yet Geelong has somehow magically avoided that. Hmmmmm it might just have something to do with how watered down the league has become making a our 'transition period' look better than it should be.

Yes some of it has to do with Geelong's good development and list management but there's definitely something else at play as well, meaning the fact that other sides have been negatively impacted by been denied the best talent in the land with most of the future champs being funneled to 2 franchises.

bulldogs and port adelade rebuilt well in that period. the crows managed to build a good squad despite losing gunston, tippett, davis and dangerfield and draft picks in the middle of that period as punishment.

i don't think lachie whitfield playing for melbourne in 2013 would have altered the premiership race much lol in fact if it wasn't for expansion carlton would have nathan freeman instead of cripps.

 

[FallingLiefs]

So name some players and the teams they could have gone to and would have made contenders as 18-19-20 year olds.

Freo - Tom Lynch, Toby Greene, taylor adams and Ollie Wines. in 2013. 2 goals the difference in a flag.instead of sheridan, crozier, pitt and josh simpson
Port - Tom Lynch, maybe even Cameron over Wingard, 1 goal prelim
Adelaide - could have had prestia v Brodie Smith and maybe toby greene v sam kerridge. 1 goal prelim.

 

[sportsmaniac89]

I think it's a two tiered competition and unfortunately is a competition that the AFL continually manipulate.

Sadly my club is in that second tier but fair dinkum, while we have been the victim of some self-inflicted wounds, the AFL have tended to change rules at a moments notice (See 2013 QF which I'm glad we stuck it up the AFL that day) and also to eliminate the sort of football we play (see rule changes this year).

When a league can do that along with manipulating everything else to suit their chosen few (this is a perception thing), it actually stinks.

In saying that, we need to rise above such garbage and stick it up them.

As for the actual topic, having the same clubs winning flags is actually turning people off the game and perhaps the AFL might want to address this fact somehow.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

It's a good point. The Afl's manipulation of the draft to 'balance ' the competition is tampering on a most dangerous level. In essence, the top 6 bracket of clubs get not just a 'harder draw', they also get a better level of tougher sustained competition in preparation for finals. It produces teams that play at a higher level for longer. Conversely, lower placed teams get more games against lowly teams and are struggling to get any further than 9th because if they happen to play 2 top teams in consecutive weeks they get smashed off the park.

the harder draws go to the better teams so maybe instead of the idea that tougher draws are producing tougher teams, is it possible that those teams with the tough draws are just better to start with? occams razor and all

 

[randyzany]

So name some players and the teams they could have gone to and would have made contenders as 18-19-20 year olds.

bulldogs and port adelade rebuilt well in that period. the crows managed to build a good squad despite losing gunston, tippett, davis and dangerfield and draft picks in the middle of that period as punishment.

i don't think lachie whitfield playing for melbourne in 2013 would have altered the premiership race much lol in fact if it wasn't for expansion carlton would have nathan freeman instead of cripps.

FallingLiefs has got the gist of it.

Just imagine if Freo, West Coast, Swans, Bulldogs, Adelaide, and all the other teams that finished in the Top 8 in the last 4 years etc.. got their hands on a handful of the guns GWS/GC has in abundance.

Not all GWS/GC guns where drafted in the Top 10, some gems can be found between pick 11 and 20. But a lot of the damage was done in how they forced other clubs to find quality outside the Top 20 which is incredibly rare as elite AFL talent thins out very quickly after that point. The odds are against you if you have to rely on players outside the Top 20 to build a quality list hence the diluted league we have today.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

FallingLiefs has got the gist of it.

Just imagine if Freo, West Coast, Swans, Bulldogs, Adelaide, and all the other teams that finished in the Top 8 in the last 4 years etc.. got their hands on a handful of the guns GWS/GC has in abundance.

Not all GWS/GC guns where drafted in the Top 10, some gems can be found between pick 11 and 20. But a lot of the damage was done in how they forced other clubs to find quality outside the Top 20 which is incredibly rare as elite AFL talent thins out very quickly after that point. The odds are against you if you have to rely on players outside the Top 20 to build a quality list hence the diluted league we have today.

i disagree entirely. that is what separates the clubs that are consistently winning from the clubs that are not. blaming it on expansion is just a cop out. clubs like carlton and richmond can only make good players from high draft picks. you can't build a good team like that.

look at teams like sydney who got hanneberry and parker after the first round. hawthorn how they can make great players from hill, bruest, dyrea, sicily from low picks. they're the teams that build premiership winning lists. even look at the bulldogs now and while yes they drafted some quality top end talent, it's the guys like dahlhaus, hunter, wood, stevens, johanison, dickson that were taken late in the draft that they've made into good players that make them challengers.

compare with carlton who's 1st round picks from 2008-12 are no longer on the list and yet when we played GWS this year we still had more first round picks in the starting 22 than them. development of low picks is everything.

 

[chiwigi]

No, the AFL is a league that has pretty comprehensive equalisation measures in place, where extremely smart and well run clubs can use those measures intelligently and effectively to get themselves into positions of power, and keep themselves there. Where the current powerhouse club, who has won 4 of the last 9 flags, including a threepeat, finished 14th just over a decade ago. Where lesser clubs must figure out ways and means of utilising the measures, and work hard and smart, to bring themselves up to the level of the power clubs.

By selling the club to Tasmania, not all clubs can (or want) to do that.