Rumour Jamar a Magpie in 2013?

[Obese Arachnid]

It's just that IMO he's a luxury rather than a need and when your caps so tight I don't think it's wise to chase luxury players (which Carlton seem likely to do with Boak when they need in and under ball winners). But that's mainly because I believe that Jolly is going along fine despite injury concerns and that Wood has that natural improvement in him. Though I can fully understand if others feel differently.

Do you foresee another need besides ruck that we might have a go at with FA?

There doesn't seem to be a lot around that could help us or fit our needs. Jamar sort of fits our needs, in terms of back up & (not convinced on Wood) protection for the next crop.Also he is playing in a team that is unlikely to offer Premiership chances towards the end of his career & maybe (this is the absolute sticking point for me) take a small contract to find that opportunity.

Seeing as we have managed our cap so well I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibilities that we have factored in a little buffer for just this very scenario.

Like you I can also understand if people disagree.

 

[jimmy35]

I don't think if Jamar moves that he'd be looking at too much of a salary reduction either just quietly.

 

[Scodog10]

Do you foresee another need besides ruck that we might have a go at with FA?

Not particularly. I think we, along with Adelaide and West Coast, have a very well balanced list so don't particularly need to attack FA full on.

However there are a few players I would be sniffing around and I posted this in February in the "Pies possible free agents IN/OUT" thread.

Simon Black: In the past 3 season's Voss has let go 2 premiership team mates that have gone on to finish their careers at other clubs (Bradshaw and Power). I really don't need to go through his credentials because he is a future hall of famer, but I just have a feeling (rightly or wrongly) that this man is the next in the gun no matter his form at the end of 2012.

He is at least as durable as Brent Harvey and honestly doesn't look like slowing down yet (9 votes in the 2011 Brownlow for a team that won 4 games is proof enough) and his reflexes are as sharp as ever, which is so valuable for an inside mid.

If he is indeed moved on by the Lions I would be quite prepared to offer him a one year deal for 2013 with a further 2 added on the end as an assistant coach at the club. Because TBH he has one of the best football brains of the past 2 decades.

Shane Tuck: This guy is the ultimate moneyball footballer. Each year there's talk about whether Hardwick will keep playing him ahead of the kids, but he keeps on earning contract renewals. This year might be the year that he is finally squeezed out for good. Due to an ever increasing number of young mid's and a rise up the ladder a possibility. It's quite simply staggering that he isn't a permanent member of their best 22 when you have a look at the stats.

Just to throw some out there. We only had 2 midfielders with more contested possessions per game than him in 2011 (Tuck with 10.5 v Swan 13.1 and Pendles 13.5) and neither of them had as good a percentage as Tuck when contested possessions were measured as a percentage of possessions overall (Tuck at 52% v Swan at 42.5% and Pendles at 45.5%). His clearance rate was behind only Swan and Pendles and on par with Ball and his tackle rate (despite dropping in 2011) was behind only Ball, Pendles and Wellers. Again he's also as durable as anyone out there (I don't even remember him missing a game due to injury in his 8 year career) and if genetics are anything to go by he won't be near retirement for another 5 years.

There has always been two knocks on his game:

1. He's a dud kick and
2. He only has one position.

In 2011 Collingwood had 7 full or part time mid's achieve a contested possession percentage of over 35 (Ball, Blair, Beams, Pendles, Swan, Thomas and Wellingham) which AFAIK is considered average or just above. A comparison reveals that only 1 had a better kicking efficiency than Tuck (Pendles at 68.8% v Tuck at 67.1%) and only 2 recorded a better handball efficiency (Pendles 87.7% and Swan 84% v Tuck 83.6%). Disposal efficiency isn't as relevant as it once was, but for an inside mid to go at 76.4% is elite and clearly better than the likes of Judd, Selwood, Watson, Corey, Ablett, Boyd, Hodge and Priddis. Now to his main weakness, his lack of versatility.

Unfortunately he is pigeon holed as a mid, however him coming on board would afford us the option of playing Thomas and Swan up forward more regularly, thus providing us a more dangerous and diverse forward line. Yes we would lose some ball getting ability by making that move, however Tuck's minutes per possession average over the past 5 season's (working backward from 2011-2007) has gone 4 min, 4 min 12 sec, 3 min 12 sec, 3 min 39 sec and 4 min 10 sec. Which is at worst above average and again edging toward elite.

I realise many will count Tuck out automatically due to the stigma associated with the way he goes about his footy. But remember this is purely from a moneyball perspective and according to the stat's Shane Tuck would be an absolute steal! I for one wish we had him in the 2011 GF where we just got monstered in the centre of the ground by Geelong's big bodies, however that is very much in the past.....

As you can probably tell the one trait that all 3 players have one common is durability, which I think is essential for a role player at bargain basement rates i.e $200,000 or less.

Feel free to critique my choice of players and my strategy overall, but just bear in mind that this would only be considered an option if a player was squeezed out due to salary cap concerns. Because from what I can tell if we keep everyone we're so tight to the cap that we'd probably only have an extra $100,000 in reserve (which needs to be held onto in case players reach bonus payments).

Also I'm sorry for the long winded post's

3 and a bit months on I'm very pleased to see Tuck doing me proud and I'd still look at the possibility of Black. I also included Quentin Lynch, however as he isn't a FA its probably not worth going back over.

I'm a big fan of the free agency for depth approach that franchises like the Melbourne Storm and New England Patriots have adopted. They never chase the star players instead they go after guys that have been around for a while and never really dominated, but can play a role. It just means that its not about the personalities and is all about the team, which more often than not results in a seamless transition into the new club.

The other one that I'd look at is Aaron Davey. Some may say why would you chase him? Well its pretty simple the old moneyball philosophy!

He is a far far better footballer than what he's showing ATM. Honestly he just looks like a bloke that needs a change of scenery, in fact he looks remarkably similar to one Andy Krakouer towards the end of 07....

Even though he isn't a FA he'll be available at years end because he's in the gun. The reasons behind looking at him are that he started the forward pressure craze (so he'd suit our structures in that regard), he'd be one of the top 5 most skilful players at the club and could form a very dangerous quartet with Krakouer, Didak and Fasolo (that's a very skilful forward line IMO).

I guess I just feel that we could do a lot worse than use pick 60 in a rookie draft on him, which could well be a possibility if things get any worse down at the Dees.

 

[Obese Arachnid]

Simon Black will be a one club player, from what I've heard/seen of him in interviews, it's not going to realistically happen. IF he did, I don't see him going a cheap contract like we'd need him to.

Shane Tuck is an interesting one, i like him but the ship has sailed. He's too old & not quite what we'd want. Also from the horses mouth, he was asked last year to bide his time as he was not going to be picked as Hardwick wanted to "see the list". He was told, there is a place on their list in 2012 if he deserved it. He has, so i'm guessing he'll stay. (fair enough that's second hand from someone inside Richmond)

Q. Lynch maybe ok for us in an FA sense & i can see some proffering his inclusion the same as I don't mind the idea of Jamar. fair call, just not my choice.

Davey, yes, I like the call but i suspect he'd be wanting a decent pay packet.
He seems soft as butter & i wouldn't be surprised he would over value himself in a switch to Collingwood looking for the "Pie cash grab".

Jamar still sounds like the one to me, IF, that's right IF, we are looking at anyone through FA. I could see him getting compensated for life after footy being a (hopefully) Pie premiership player.
I don't see Black or Davey doing this & probably Lynch is 50/50.
Black will be remembered & have a life after footy in Brissy. Davey doesn't have the persona to develop a media career. Lynch maybe.

Not saying get Jamar, just as I see it, it's attainable (he has to accept 300K a season) & is dependent upon how Jolly goes for the rest of the season.

 

[Knightmare]

As good as Black and Tuck while neither will be moving - assuming they were available - which they aren't - would they make our midfield rotation?

Pendlebury, Swan, Sidebottom, Beams, Thomas and Ball would all surely be ahead of the two vets - Black and Tuck are both still highly productive midfielders, but I just don't see a role for either of them and would imagine they would be better utilised in a team with a weaker midfield.

At the moment the relative strengths of the list is in the quality of midfielders - inside in particular, depth of forwards (small + medium) through sheer quantity on our list and key defenders.

With the relative weaknesses at this point in time from a best 22 perspective being a 2nd high quality ruckman and a 2nd high quality key forward.

Then as lower level needs being an extra medium and small defender - with Luke Rounds, Paul Cribbin and Simon Buckley all likely to be delisted at seasons end and with Tyson Goldsack looking better up forward our backline depth in terms of mediums + smalls is relatively limited making it a logical thing to look for through the draft.


So from this perspective with the ruck being one of our clear relative weakness with our only AFL quality ruckman turning 32 at the end of the year logically Mark Jamar is a fit. And with Jamar being both a better ruckman and forward than Wood is a clear upgrade on what we have both from a short and medium term perspective.
As a ruckman Jamar has much higher hitout numbers and hitout to advantage numbers.
As a forward while relatively unproven in the role Jamar just hasn't had those opportunities to get forward of centre in a completely incompetent Melbourne team. But his marking ability on the rare occasion he has managed to get forward of centre is far superior to that of Wood and has managed 5 goals in the one game a few years back.

 

[Scodog10]

Both Tuck and Black would undoubtedly be getting games as we've played at least one senior midfielder down all year and most weeks its been two. Beams in rounds 1 and 2, Ball since very early round 3, Swan the last 2 weeks and Thomas round 4-8. Bear in mind I made that call on the two of them in February and things have changed considerably since then.

Gotta agree that we're lacking depth in that small-medium defender position if we could unearth a Morris or Duigan at years end I'd be chuffed, but I'd personally be interested to see how Wellingham could handle that position.

Also Jolly is currently 30 and will be 31 when his contract expires.

 

[Knightmare]

Both Tuck and Black would undoubtedly be getting games as we've played at least one senior midfielder down all year and most weeks its been two. Beams in rounds 1 and 2, Ball since very early round 3, Swan the last 2 weeks and Thomas round 4-8. Bear in mind I made that call on the two of them in February and things have changed considerably since then.

Gotta agree that we're lacking depth in that small-medium defender position if we could unearth a Morris or Duigan at years end I'd be chuffed, but I'd personally be interested to see how Wellingham could handle that position.

Also Jolly is currently 30 and will be 31 when his contract expires.

Certainly Tuck and Black would be getting games this year in our midfield this year - with the injuries to Ball, then Swan and Thomas among others also missing games as stages. But with free agency being introduced at the end of this year and with our midfield expected to be healthy next year the relevant question would be will they be best 22 next year if they were to be added as free agents?

You are correct about Jolly's age.

A Duigan/Morris type would be fantastic and a good fit for our backline. With Goldsack still a defender before this year our backline was very deep, but I do see a role for an extra.
There should be some avenues to look at. Young u18 year olds. Mature agers and the bottom of the lists of other club lists if there is someone underutilised - perhaps a Lee Spurr if he can't secure a regular position for Fremantle could be an appropriate fit. So there should be options.

Wellingham down back is an interesting call. I'd be open to giving him a trial in that role if some key injuries happened and the need arose.

 

[Scodog10]

I'll stick with Black because even though he's extremely unlikely he's probably the more vulnerable. He'd be depth, but with the way the games going these days in terms of injuries you almost have to expect that you'll go into many games one senior mid down.

If we could get 12-15 games out of him filling in for senior players to ease their workload while at the same time mentoring and protecting the kids in the two's it could end up a positive for all parties.

Price dependent Andy Otten would be another to keep an eye on IMO he just can't get near it ATM with the Crows. Would Spurr be contracted for next year? If not he'd definitely be worthy of a look.

Wellers down back intrigues me because he's got the pace to go with smalls, is very strong in one on ones, is creative and has been used as a run with player in the past so has that defensive side to his game.

 

[Knightmare]

I'll stick with Black because even though he's extremely unlikely he's probably the more vulnerable. He'd be depth, but with the way the games going these days in terms of injuries you almost have to expect that you'll go into many games one senior mid down.

If we could get 12-15 games out of him filling in for senior players to ease their workload while at the same time mentoring and protecting the kids in the two's it could end up a positive for all parties.

Price dependent Andy Otten would be another to keep an eye on IMO he just can't get near it ATM with the Crows. Would Spurr be contracted for next year? If not he'd definitely be worthy of a look.

Wellers down back intrigues me because he's got the pace to go with smalls, is very strong in one on ones, is creative and has been used as a run with player in the past so has that defensive side to his game.

Spurr is a rookie (born 1987) so if he doesn't secure a regular position there is the chance Fremantle delist him which would be the scenario that he comes available - but equally he could be offered a senior list position if he does put together a strong 2nd half to the season.

Otten is an interesting one to bring up. Haven't watched him closely of late - don't think he has played in the televised Adelaide games i've seen this year to know where he is at right now. But he is a solid intercept player which is a great strength, I do have some questions on his ball use though - can look pressured by foot at times which is my primary concern and I'd want to investigate that further.
What is your annalysis of his defensive game? Can he play shutdown roles?

 

[Old Spice]

I don't think if Jamar moves that he'd be looking at too much of a salary reduction either just quietly.

Well if he is going to be flicked from melbourne (age and opportunity) he will only be picked up by a team who thinks they're a p/ship chance in the next two years and who have a ruck issue. That's Hawks and Pies.

He will have to take a mini deal whether he likes it or not.
or he'll go the way of Jeff White.

On Scodogs other plans for unrestricted FA, Black is of no value whatever to us when we bat so deep in the midfield. Otten the same re backs.

Our only suspect area is the ruck. I don't mind us picking something up here, but again, we have to have someone cheap who wont cost us a pick and only fills a stop gap. That's why Jamar presents as a big prospect.

Talk of non FA rucks, especially good rucks, will cost us too much in terms of moeny, picks and development.

We do need a genuine tap ruck option if Jolly is now under a constant injury cloud. If he asks for too much money, we give it a miss and stick with Wood.

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

Like several posters I find Wellers down back an interesting proposition. The only objection would be taking him away from the midfield, because he has all the attributes of a defender as well as good kicking skills. Ideally' he'd play Buckley's current role.

I can't see the point in chasing mature mid-fielders. Even without Ball, and with Moonboot semi-permanently side-lined by crippling injury, we have been doing OK at the stoppages. A tap ruckman seems a priority but only at the right price and only if Wood is to be delisted/traded.

 

[Obese Arachnid]

A tap ruckman seems a priority but only at the right price and only if Wood is to be delisted/traded.

What he said. Succinct & to the point.

 

[Scodog10]

Spurr is a rookie (born 1987) so if he doesn't secure a regular position there is the chance Fremantle delist him which would be the scenario that he comes available - but equally he could be offered a senior list position if he does put together a strong 2nd half to the season.

Otten is an interesting one to bring up. Haven't watched him closely of late - don't think he has played in the televised Adelaide games i've seen this year to know where he is at right now. But he is a solid intercept player which is a great strength, I do have some questions on his ball use though - can look pressured by foot at times which is my primary concern and I'd want to investigate that further.
What is your annalysis of his defensive game? Can he play shutdown roles?

I must admit I thought they took him in the PSD (before even thinking of Dawson). Generally mature agers that get given a chance by one club don't walk out to join another which would make it difficult to get him, but I certainly wouldn't say no if the opportunity arose.

TBH I haven't seen much of Otten since his breakout season (because of his injury and then my own footy involvements), but from what I have seen he has enough toe to not get caught out and good game awareness. He doesn't play big enough to be a second or third tall defender i.e despite being 192cm a move into the midfield has always been on the cards, however he'd be more than capable of playing on small-mediums.

As for genuine Toovey like shutdown roles I'm not sure, I've only ever seen him used as Adelaide's version of Harry O (post 2010). The main difference is that Otten is a more natural ball winner than Harry and is more prepared to run up the ground to be involved in forward thrusts (this is what's crept into Harry's game which I don't think comes naturally to him). Harry is clearly the more versatile defender and better lockdown player when he's on though.

Spicey TBH I think our list is extremely well balanced with basically no holes in 2012, however as Knight said with Buckley (I think he'll get another year), Rounds and Cribbin chances to get the chop and Johnno a possibility to retire a small-medium defender will be brought into the club.

We're in a premiership window ATM so its best to look at someone who can slot straight in and replace a Toovey or Harry if they go down much like what Clarke has done this year after the loss of Johnno. So while I think Otten would be a luxury ATM he may turn into a need and a gettable player as the future rolls on.

Finally from where I'm sitting right now I think it'd be good to get an Otten type in for Harry in particular. Because lets be honest he hasn't set the world on fire the past 18 months and unfortunately right now there is absolutely no pressure coming from underneath for his position. I always think its healthy to have a player knowing that he could be replaced if he puts in a few bad performances. Watch what it does to Tom Bellchambers in the coming weeks now that Hille is fit and the same goes for Goldstein now that McIntosh is available again.....

Knight where's your list management thread this year? Because I'm sick of derailing this thread lol.

 

[Knightmare]

I must admit I thought they took him in the PSD (before even thinking of Dawson). Generally mature agers that get given a chance by one club don't walk out to join another which would make it difficult to get him, but I certainly wouldn't say no if the opportunity arose.

TBH I haven't seen much of Otten since his breakout season (because of his injury and then my own footy involvements), but from what I have seen he has enough toe to not get caught out and good game awareness. He doesn't play big enough to be a second or third tall defender i.e despite being 192cm a move into the midfield has always been on the cards, however he'd be more than capable of playing on small-mediums.

As for genuine Toovey like shutdown roles I'm not sure, I've only ever seen him used as Adelaide's version of Harry O (post 2010). The main difference is that Otten is a more natural ball winner than Harry and is more prepared to run up the ground to be involved in forward thrusts (this is what's crept into Harry's game which I don't think comes naturally to him). Harry is clearly the more versatile defender and better lockdown player when he's on though.

Spicey TBH I think our list is extremely well balanced with basically no holes in 2012, however as Knight said with Buckley (I think he'll get another year), Rounds and Cribbin chances to get the chop and Johnno a possibility to retire a small-medium defender will be brought into the club.

We're in a premiership window ATM so its best to look at someone who can slot straight in and replace a Toovey or Harry if they go down much like what Clarke has done this year after the loss of Johnno. So while I think Otten would be a luxury ATM he may turn into a need and a gettable player as the future rolls on.

Finally from where I'm sitting right now I think it'd be good to get an Otten type in for Harry in particular. Because lets be honest he hasn't set the world on fire the past 18 months and unfortunately right now there is absolutely no pressure coming from underneath for his position. I always think its healthy to have a player knowing that he could be replaced if he puts in a few bad performances. Watch what it does to Tom Bellchambers in the coming weeks now that Hille is fit and the same goes for Goldstein now that McIntosh is available again.....

Knight where's your list management thread this year? Because I'm sick of derailing this thread lol.

Good annalysis on Otten's game and I think allot of this is correct. Nick Suban is another who has been talked about as a potential mover. Like Otten had a great start to his career but similarly just hasn't made that progress since. I wouldn't be pushing for either but again just another name to have in the back of the mind to perhaps look at in later years if he gets delisted and someone sees something in his play.

I agree that you need some pressure for positions. Right now with Simon Buckley getting games it's pretty clear that, that backline pressure for positions just isn't there this year with that limited depth. Here's hoping that can drive Harry forward some.
In recruiting a new defender it will come down to which roles we think our current players best play then look for players we can fit around them later.

One player who hasn't been bought up who could be an alternative who might better fit with Jolly is Kepler Bradley. Don't know why I keep bringing up Fremantle names. But he like Leigh Brown has always been between position and would be suited to that no.2 ruck role playing some minutes as a forward.
Hardly a star and not a high level player like a Jamar might be, but he could be a fit and an appropriate role player who could be considered if Jamar doesn't work out or if we want to explore other options.

To be honest this discussion got me going on this years list management thread. Just started it last night and will probably post it during our bye to get some discussion going. Will probably take that long to write up player profiles among other things.

 

[rustyg70]

Ive always thought that Kepler Bradley could be a handy inclusion to fill in as a second ruck/forward.
And while we are on about Freo players,
What about Silvagni??
He hasn't been getting any game time at Freo since Lyons bought over his love child in Dawson.
I reckon he would be a very handy pick up for us.
He can play big and small,is a fairly good mark and is still young.

 

[Knightmare]

Ive always thought that Kepler Bradley could be a handy inclusion to fill in as a second ruck/forward.
And while we are on about Freo players,
What about Silvagni??
He hasn't been getting any game time at Freo since Lyons bought over his love child in Dawson.
I reckon he would be a very handy pick up for us.
He can play big and small,is a fairly good mark and is still young.

Can't say I know why Dawson is getting games ahead of Silvangi. Dawson shows good heart and at times knows when to come off his opponent but he is such a limited player and at times makes some horrible mistakes which would make you tear your hair out.

I wouldn't say Silvagni is super young, turning 25 at the end of the year but certainly a suitable age to recruit if he was to get delisted or come onto the trade table.

Silvangi is a really good call and I have to say I like his game also. Don't know what is happening with him this year whether he is injured, not in form or whatever the case may be but his form last year was very impressive. Plays a bit like Reid in that he is a high level intercept mark player and has that similar ability to read it down back. But then also defensively is solid and can shut down his man. Has had success on Franklin and Goodes last year from memory in shut down roles and really held them both well so he does seem to have that in his arsenal also.

I very much consider Silvangi to be an underutilised and underappreciated player who if given the opportunity would be a very productive and high level player.

Silvangi is really a key defender - which is not at all a need. But he is a shortish, lightweight type without the ability to play on the big forwards of the Tippett or Hawkins variety. I haven't seen how he matches up against smaller or medium types but I think he could be suited to playing on these types and he could be an interesting eventual Tarrant replacement and play as a 3rd tall defender alongside Reid and Keeffe with that little bit of flexibility depending on matchups and I would be very keen to research him further because I do think he could be a fit because I think there might be something there.

 

[Matz]

Heard Robert Walls earlier on SEN saying that the pies are going hard after Jamar.....not that hes a credible footy person but thought i'd mention it anyway.

 

[rustyg70]

Heard Robert Walls earlier on SEN saying that the pies are going hard after Jamar.....not that hes a credible footy person but thought i'd mention it anyway.

I wouldn't take much notice of it.
We get linked to every "Out of Contract" player every year.
Id say that we will be concentrating on signing our own players before we even think about any other players.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

I have no doubt that if we are tyre kicking for Jamar then its insurance for the possibility of Jolly retiring. If Jolly plays on we wont chase Jamar seriously.

 

[Matz]

I have no doubt that if we are tyre kicking for Jamar then its insurance for the possibility of Jolly retiring. If Jolly plays on we wont chase Jamar seriously.

Not sure on Jolly but i think they would seriously be considering delisting wood

 

[rustyg70]

Not sure on Jolly but i think they would seriously be considering delisting wood

As long as we get his BFFs signature before hand.

 

[Matz]

As long as we get his BFFs signature before hand.

Agreed .

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Not sure on Jolly but i think they would seriously be considering delisting wood

Well they are seriously deluded if they think a 30 year old Jamar is an upgrade on a 25 year old Wood.

 

[4#Didak#4]

I will probably get shot down here, but Jamar is no better or worse than Jolly. Its not solving any problems. Jamar will go way over priced as others are chasing a 1st ruck. If Jolly pulls the pin this year then by all means look at him, otherwise we have Wood & Jolly so why pay big dollars for another lumbering ruck.

I would be looking at two very much unloved, under rated, unrestricted agents who could fill a role in our side just nicely and wouldn't be after mega dollars. I am thinking Kosi & Q. Lynch (Ok stop laughing now). I think both these guys could fill our need for a ruck forward as Leigh Brown did but with a bit more quality. I particularly think Kosi is a good option.

Kosi is a much underated ruck. In fact he is a ruck who has been forced to play forward. St Kilda have vastly under utilised his main skill as they needed a key marking forward & have historically had plenty of rucks. Kosi has played his best footy as a ruck and obviously knows the forward caper. Forget the hype around him being a high draft pick failure (just like L Brown!), in reality he is just a good honest hard contester who can do a job - not a glamour forward goal kicking machine that the Saints have wanted him to be.

Kosi would be desperate for premiership success and follow in Luke Ball's footsteps (I am sure Luke would word him up). He wouldn't need a lot of money with this carrot dangled in front of him. It would be a short term 2 year fix until Witts, Ceglar & Keefe can fill his shoes. He would have an instant impact and make us very hard to match up on in 2013. If Cloke leaves then a player like this becomes a must have.

 

[Breakthelines]

Even though I'm not a massive Kosi fan, this makes more sense than Jamar.
He could play the Leigh Brown type roll.
If he's cheap and happy to take a 2 year deal.....sign.