Jesse Hogan Contract Negotiations (Titus O'Reilly)

[Tonga Bob]

Did he get hungry one night?

You could say that...

 

[Silversurfer]

Easy SS

Too much information?

 

[Paracleet]

Unless someone can produce a statistically significant method of showing it, it is a myth. Some back of the envelope stuff:

Victorian Clubs - number of players to have played +300 Commencing after 1987 - i'll include ones whose career also substantially covered that era, to be generous (say 75% of it)
Carlton: 2
Collingwood: 0
Essendon: 1
Fitzroy: 0
Geelong: 1 (about to be 2. Their games record was 300 till Enright broke it last year.)
Hawthorn: 2 (about to be 3)
Melbourne: 1 (their only one)
North: 4
Richmond: 0
St Kilda: 4
Doggies: 4

By that measure we're in the middle. To me its purely a function of time and statistical distribution, not flying magically degrading your muscles

Another example: collectively Melbournes top ten games holders have played 2364 games, West Coasts top ten: 2594. This is despite Melbourne having had 5 times as long to build up record holders.

Myth dispelled right? (I doubt it)

 

[FD2646]

Really like the above post, but I wonder if it would change dramatically if the benchmark was 200 plus games.

 

[free at last]

Too much information?

Yes.....

 

[Paracleet]

Really like the above post, but I wonder if it would change dramatically if the benchmark was 200 plus games.

If we wanted to get fancy I got could paste the list for each club and check the standard devs. I'd be confident they'd been no statistically difference.
Feels like it could take upwards of an hour to do, are we that invested?

 

[Dump Truck]

Really like the above post, but I wonder if it would change dramatically if the benchmark was 200 plus games.

We should do ours in 10 years as much as I hate to say it we've probably had more campaigners play then champions fron 1995-2005. I mean, it would have been great to see Daniel Schell, Dan Parker and Todd Ridley hit 200 but I mean, it actually wouldn't have.

 

[Paracleet]

Really like the above post, but I wonder if it would change dramatically if the benchmark was 200 plus games.

I got bored copy and pasting after 7 goes, but I figure it gives an indication of the pattern (also i wasn't mad enough to count it by hand. Its using =countif).
The table above counts the number of players for each club in each band of games played then weights it for time spent in the comp. The "weighting" ratio is 10:7:5:3:1 respectively from plus 300 to 200-224.

As you can see we are not last, WC are in the middle, and the Crows, despite flying every second week, are smashing it out of the park. If I was to finish the exercise and the put it up against the winning ratios for each club, I bet it would match almost exactly with only a couple of outliers.

Note: it is since 1965 since that is when afltables.com have their detailed records from.

 

[Silversurfer]

Yes.....

Stark or keyhole? Heh

 

[Ausbenito]

Tommy Lynch the best young forward in the game really not helping Goldy much? not sold on Hogan reckon the game has changed to the point where A grade mids are as important probably coming a bit cheaper.

 

[meima]

Tommy Lynch the best young forward in the game really not helping Goldy much? not sold on Hogan reckon the game has changed to the point where A grade mids are as important probably coming a bit cheaper.

Same , after watching WAfL , if you mid don't have good kicking you are in trouble.

 

[enoenoeno]

Agreed - Kelly from GWS is one of the best kicks in the AFL at the moment (IMHO) ... Makes him so dangerous with ball in hand. Both Hawks, Geelong have those elite kicks, we are really lacking. Hopefully the infusion of Guerra will help, but the focus with picks needs to be on elite ball users in the middle (then radiating from there)

 

[pavslovechild]

Again I'll say, petrovski seton is a must... Take the punt on appeness being fine fitness wise, tabs and get McCarthy. You're set for a while

 

[kp junior]

Simon Goodwin in the news today saying Hogan is certain to sign with the Dees in his opinion

Edit - as tweeted by Jay Clark
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Sweetback]

As long as we get McCarthy and Apeness comes on, then I don't care if we miss out on Hogan. The Hawks show you can build a forward line around someone like Gunston. McCarthy is that kind of player to me.

 

[Cobbler]

As long as we get McCarthy and Apeness comes on, then I don't care if we miss out on Hogan. The Hawks show you can build a forward line around someone like Gunston. McCarthy is that kind of player to me.

Build around Gunston? Forgetting Roughhead, Franklin when he was there. Breust, Rioli and Puopolo. This is the only year they have had Gunston as their main target and despite being 6-2 it shows how much they miss Roughhead.

 

[meima]

Build around Gunston? Forgetting Roughhead, Franklin when he was there. Breust, Rioli and Puopolo. This is the only year they have had Gunston as their main target and despite being 6-2 it shows how much they miss Roughhead.

But hawthorn surely putting a lot of game time into Sicily ,O'Brien for the future. Come September roughead will be ready with strong backup player.

 

[Ysaye]

IMO The dangerous 3-p Hawks forward line was:

Roughhead (key focal point - sometimes played in ruck or elsewhere in spurts to mix it up) - equivalent role currently played by Pavlich, maybe could be played by Apeness in future#

Gunston (seconday focal point) - role currently played by Mayne.*

Hale (Ruck) - role would be played by Griffin /Clarke*

Rioli (crumbing forward) - role currently played by Walters

Puopolo (crumbing forward) - role played by Ballantyne#

Bruest (third forward) - role currently played by Crozier*

Our current major gaps between the Hwathorn standard are marked with a *. But the gaps weren't bad in 2012 and 2013 when Mayne had comparable if slightly lower stats to Gunston (Pav was also in the same boat) and Clarke was more effective (Also at the time Ballantyne was at the peak of his powers). The likely new gaps are going to be the ones in #.

 

[Sweetback]

Build around Gunston? Forgetting Roughhead, Franklin when he was there. Breust, Rioli and Puopolo. This is the only year they have had Gunston as their main target and despite being 6-2 it shows how much they miss Roughhead.

They haven't missed Franklin at all - I think they've been better without him. He's the one who sells it to me that we don't need a superstar. We need a forward who can regularly kick three or four goals a game that straightens us up. Roughhead hasn't played all year but their forward line has functioned well enough because of the structures. If Apeness comes on, as I said, we would be fine without Hogan. We already have the small forwards we need.

 

[theridge]

They haven't missed Franklin at all - I think they've been better without him. He's the one who sells it to me that we don't need a superstar. We need a forward who can regularly kick three or four goals a game that straightens us up. Roughhead hasn't played all year but their forward line has functioned well enough because of the structures. If Apeness comes on, as I said, we would be fine without Hogan. We already have the small forwards we need.

Which small forwards are you talking? Crozier I like but needs to string a few games together for confidence. He goes missing. Ballas I think isn't at his peak anymore and Walters is more a mid now. Yarran would be good but he's injured.

 

[Sweetback]

Which small forwards are you talking? Crozier I like but needs to string a few games together for confidence. He goes missing. Ballas I think isn't at his peak anymore and Walters is more a mid now. Yarran would be good but he's injured.

Walters will be playing less midfield when Fyfe is back. We have Bennell to come. Weller is improving. Yarran will hopefully slot in. The reality of now will be different if we get McCarthy and once we get Fyfe back.

 

[Lach72]

Why play Sonny less in the midfield. He's killing it. Kicking as many goals as when he's played small forward and we get the benefit of 25-30 of his disposals

 

[Cobbler]

Which small forwards are you talking? Crozier I like but needs to string a few games together for confidence. He goes missing. Ballas I think isn't at his peak anymore and Walters is more a mid now. Yarran would be good but he's injured.

I've enjoyed seeing Walters as a mid. Gives us a true point of difference and some class with ball in hand.

I'd hope he and Bennell could both be goal scoring mids. Ballas could be your crumbing forward and Crozier more of your lead up medium sized.

McCarthy and Taberner I see as playing similar roles, only McCarthy plays deeper and Taberner up the wings. Apeness your stay at home clunk some marks and crash some packs forward.

 

[Sweetback]

Why play Sonny less in the midfield. He's killing it. Kicking as many goals as when he's played small forward and we get the benefit of 25-30 of his disposals

Yeah he's been great, but those small forward options are available to us is the point. We just need to find the balance once we have the tall forwards to structure them around, and that doesn't necessarily mean we have to have Hogan.

 

[Cobbler]

Ballas Apeness Crozier
Mayne McCarthy Taberner

If that's our front six and we have Fyfe, Walters, Bennell as goal scoring mids then we easily have a 15 goals a game side.

Fyfe, Walters and Bennell average 8. McCarthy 2 and singles to the rest. The real excitement comes when we rest Sandi down there to kick his 4 a game.