Josh Frydenberg. Out of his depth.

[Christopher Buttersnip]

The Sheriff was out and about today. Apparently, there are Fraudo posters, etc everywhere. Perhaps internal polling is telling them the race in the anti-Victorians electorate is closer than the big business party feels comfortable with.

 

[QuietB]

While the unemployment rate worked in political terms in the old days a lot of people have grown up seeing the distorted figures and now they look at and laugh to themselves as adults. I’ve said a number of times the LNP live in the “good” old days of yesteryear thinking the same party tricks will work today. I’ve got some news, they laugh at you.

Unemployment is down because immigration is down. Plain amd simple.

Immigration was down 360,000 20/21 and will be the same 21/22. That is 720,000 people, a huge percentage of whom would work.

If half of that 720,000 were added to the labour market you can add 2.7% to the unemployment rate.

Low unemployment is nothing to gloat about. It is ultimately going to end up causing labour shortages all over the place.

 

[Mindtraveller]

Unemployment is down because immigration is down. Plain amd simple.

Immigration was down 360,000 20/21 and will be the same 21/22. That is 720,000 people, a huge percentage of whom would work.

If half of that 720,000 were added to the labour market you can add 2.7% to the unemployment rate.

Low unemployment is nothing to gloat about. It is ultimately going to end up causing labour shortages all over the place.

And the 2/3rd full time jobs is probably hospitality trying to get people instead of casual

 

[HPKS]

Unemployment is down because immigration is down. Plain amd simple.

Immigration was down 360,000 20/21 and will be the same 21/22. That is 720,000 people, a huge percentage of whom would work.

If half of that 720,000 were added to the labour market you can add 2.7% to the unemployment rate.

Low unemployment is nothing to gloat about. It is ultimately going to end up causing labour shortages all over the place.

Exactly. That’s my point. It’s a nothing figure that’s easily explained one way or another. It means sfa. Would people scream from the roof tops of how great it is if we had an unemployment figure of 0% but everyone lived below the poverty line? Of course not.

 

[Saint]

Exactly. That’s my point. It’s a nothing figure that’s easily explained one way or another. It means sfa. Would people scream from the roof tops of how great it is if we had an unemployment figure of 0% but everyone lived below the poverty line? Of course not.

It's pretty satisfying seeing cafe and restaurant owners coming to the realisation that their staff are real people who want a decent living wage and can now walk elsewhere if they wish.

 

[Pessimistic]

They are going to be spending mega if they are defending such as Kooyong

 

[gandaal]

They are going to be spending mega if they are defending such as Kooyong

The internal polling must be dreadful.

 

[Mofra]

The internal polling must be dreadful.

Choosing a spat with Victoria was perhaps not the best Federal Lib strategy.
Frydenberg is actually one of the last of the genuine wet-Libs. It would be a disaster for the future direction of the party if he goes.

 

[Not Important]

Choosing a spat with Victoria was perhaps not the best Federal Lib strategy.
Frydenberg is actually one of the last of the genuine wet-Libs. It would be a disaster for the future direction of the party if he goes.

nah! he kicked victoria when the state was on it's knees. and lies at almost scummo levels. he's as wet as the desert. very much moved 2 the right as he needs them 2 fulfil his leadership ambitions.

 

[gandaal]

Choosing a spat with Victoria was perhaps not the best Federal Lib strategy.
Frydenberg is actually one of the last of the genuine wet-Libs. It would be a disaster for the future direction of the party if he goes.

You would think so but in the last state by state polling I saw there was barely any drop in coalition support in Victoria. They might lose 1 or 2 seats at most.

Shocked me.

 

[DaRick]

Choosing a spat with Victoria was perhaps not the best Federal Lib strategy.
Frydenberg is actually one of the last of the genuine wet-Libs. It would be a disaster for the future direction of the party if he goes.

ScoMo presumably thought that he could get away with it because 1) the Premier was ALP, 2) VIC is a relatively pro-ALP state and 3) the seats held by the LNP are quite often Tree Tory seats that are not going to fall to the ALP anyway (Higgins possibly excepted, but from what QuietB told me there's a lot of anti-ALP sentiment in the suburbs that may not apply so much to the Greens because the latter are more identifiably pro-climate).

He's also taken pot shots at McGowan and Annastacia, but not quite to the same degree.

Still, picking a fight with McGowan, a very popular Premier (and comparing Western Australians to cavemen), was also very stupid, especially since he can't exactly rely on the UAP to prop him up over there, plus it has the feel of outsiders dictating to locals, which never goes down well.

 

[DaRick]

You would think so but in the last state by state polling I saw there was barely any drop in coalition support in Victoria. They might lose 1 or 2 seats at most.

Shocked me.

My impression is that LNP support has never been that high in VIC to begin with.

Anyway, they're at more risk at losing seats to Tree Tory independents than the ALP directly.

 

[Pessimistic]

My impression is that LNP support has never been that high in VIC to begin with.

Anyway, they're at more risk at losing seats to Tree Tory independents than the ALP directly.

Or greens. The state lib collapse has to be implicated. Josh’s seat is almost exactly two state seats. Kew and Hawthorn

Huge tpp swings to ALP meaning hawthorn went ALP but retained Kew but put the idiot Tim smith in Kew - so it’s not happy clappers today

 

[gandaal]

My impression is that LNP support has never been that high in VIC to begin with.

Anyway, they're at more risk at losing seats to Tree Tory independents than the ALP directly.

Just checked the latest polling and ALP support in Victoria has risen by 1.5% since the previous polling, which still leaves it as the lowest percentage growth in AUS since the last election, but the second highest level of state support for the ALP in the country behind SA.

Roy Morgan polling Jan 20th

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in States except Queensland – and importantly with large leads in the key States of New South Wales and Victoria.

The ALP enjoys a large lead in Victoria on 59% (up 1.5% points since mid-December) compared to the L-NP on 41% (down 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 5.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP has also increased its lead in NSW since mid-December with the ALP now on 58% (up 1.5% points since mid-December) compared to the L-NP on 42% (down 1.5% points). This result represents a swing of 10.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The only exception to the ALP’s dominance is in Queensland. The LNP holds a narrow two-party preferred lead in Queensland with the LNP on 51.5% (up 2% points since mid-December) ahead of the ALP on 48.5% (down 2% points). However, because of the LNP’s strong performance in Queensland in 2019 this result represents a swing of 6.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The situation in Western Australia is also close with the ALP on 51% (down 2% points) cf. L-NP 49% (up 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result reprensents a swing of 6.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

In South Australia the ALP is on 60.5% (up 0.5% points since mid-December) well ahead of the L-NP on 39.5% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a swing of 9.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP leads strongly in Tasmania with the ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%, representing a swing of 4.5% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

 

[Gethelred]

If Australian politics is broken, I am not sure an independent who previously had no interest in politics is the right person to fix it.

I just don't like this messaging.

Yes to voting Josh out

Think this is a mite unfair. The alternative to someone without interest in politics is another politician, and we don't seem to be having much success with the career politicians at all.

 

[Gethelred]

I genuinely hate this article. It posits politics as entertainment, as opposed to the consequential reality it is.

Self awareness is less attractive when it serves as lampshade hanging for something you're doing anyway.

 

[DaRick]

Or greens. The state lib collapse has to be implicated. Josh’s seat is almost exactly two state seats. Kew and Hawthorn

Huge tpp swings to ALP meaning hawthorn went ALP but retained Kew but put the idiot Tim smith in Kew - so it’s not happy clappers today

In this case, I'm reluctant to read that much into the dysfunctional state of the VIC L/NP, or the state MP being a complete ******* TBH. If the VIC L/NP were currently in power and voters had an existing beef with them - as was the case with Goss in QLD back in 1995/96 - I would feel differently.

I should know - the QLD LNP have been mostly unelectable over the past 30 years due to being a granola party - full of nuts, fruits and flakes - but that hasn't hindered the Federal LNP very much.

I think ScoMo transforming himself into a hate figure in VIC, and his shtick not really resonating with inner-city electorates (his 'daggy dad' approach is IMO too lowbrow for them), will be more determinative. For example, Keating was despised in QLD by 1995/96, and the results were rather grisly. Plus, while they're not Queenslanders, Victorians do IMO have a parochial streak (Exhibit A: Dutton), and so haven't taken all that kindly to The Fry joining in with ScoMo's jibes from what I understand.

 

[Christopher Buttersnip]

 

[Christopher Buttersnip]

 

[Pessimistic]

Irony?

 

[Pessimistic]

In this case, I'm reluctant to read that much into the dysfunctional state of the VIC L/NP, or the state MP being a complete ******* TBH. If the VIC L/NP were currently in power and voters had an existing beef with them - as was the case with Goss in QLD back in 1995/96 - I would feel differently.

I should know - the QLD LNP have been mostly unelectable over the past 30 years due to being a granola party - full of nuts, fruits and flakes - but that hasn't hindered the Federal LNP very much.

I think ScoMo transforming himself into a hate figure in VIC, and his shtick not really resonating with inner-city electorates (his 'daggy dad' approach is IMO too lowbrow for them), will be more determinative. For example, Keating was despised in QLD by 1995/96, and the results were rather grisly. Plus, while they're not Queenslanders, Victorians do IMO have a parochial streak (Exhibit A: Dutton), and so haven't taken all that kindly to The Fry joining in with ScoMo's jibes from what I understand.

Let’s just call the state election a confidence builder for the party workers and those prepared to donate. Some of the most expensive areas swung the hardest.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Irony?
View attachment 1320819

light mode?!?!?!?

 

[RedmanWasHere]

light mode?!?!?!?

Better than dark mode.

 

[Christopher Buttersnip]

Frydo in his role as political censor. The reactionaries can't cop criticism. He has the same proclivities as Shonky when it comes to openness, transparency, and accountability.

A proxy on the house: Frydenberg’s attack on advisers raises alarm

The Treasurer’s decision to impose draconian new regulations and punitive fines on proxy advisers has created an unexpected political storm and raised questions about the motivation.

www.smh.com.au

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Rode anniversary trail today (cuts through Ashburton, Glen Iris, Camberwell, Canterbury, and Kew)

LOTS of corflutes for Monique on houses. Tbh, more than I'd normally see for the majors just prior to the election