Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[MightyDons4]

Yeah I agree. Although I'm hoping for Weller, Duggan would be my second choice if Weller was already gone.

I know it's a big call and I'm not saying that he'll be as good but geez Duggan reminds me of Enright. Not with his kicking obviously (being a left footer) but just the way he reads the play and has a cool head under pressure.

Not a fan of Ahern?

 

[chaelsonnen]

Yeah I agree. Although I'm hoping for Weller, Duggan would be my second choice if Weller was already gone.

I know it's a big call and I'm not saying that he'll be as good but geez Duggan reminds me of Enright. Not with his kicking obviously (being a left footer) but just the way he reads the play and has a cool head under pressure.

That's a big call.
I know alot of people rate him including KM, but me personally I don't rate his kicking...especially under pressure and especially when he tries to use his right foot. Turns the ball over or disadvantages a teammate more often than you think.
But hey I could be wrong, remember it's just a gut feeling anyway.

 

[Stylo]

That's a big call.
I know alot of people rate him including KM, but me personally I don't rate his kicking...especially under pressure and especially when he tries to use his right foot. Turns the ball over or disadvantages a teammate more often than you think.
But hey I could be wrong, remember it's just a gut feeling anyway.

Are you going off that youtube video?

 

[chaelsonnen]

Are you going off that youtube video?

No I'm going off my gut.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

Not a fan of Ahern?

It's not that I don't like him but I just like others more. If Wells selected him at 10 I wouldn't be upset at all but I'd just have Weller and Duggan ahead of him with Pickett probably on par as the next best choices. As you can tell I think we need to go small with our first pick.

 

[Stylo]

No I'm going off my gut.

Okay. Because most of the people I spoken to who don't rate him have only seen that video.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare
What is it about Ellis that fails to impress?

I just don't see the impact from him that I do from some others.

Hey KM,
I asked you last week about who you thought was the safest 'bet-your-house-on-it' pick in the draft outside of the top 10 to make it in the AFL (you chose Heeney and Goddard).

As you know, for every gem player picked up in the draft there are about 5 times as many busts. Happens every single year.
So just for a little fun we'll do the reverse, who do you see as the biggest bust potentials in this years likely top 20 or 30 (including top 10). Choose a couple of players that in your opinion in spite of all the media hype, you think they may well turn out to be a bust - you personally just don't see it with them.
Go with your gut.

Me personally I got a bad feeling about Liam Duggan and Clem Smith.

If I had to pick some top 10 guys who could fail Paul Ahern and Sam Durdin would be the two I go with. Ahern has too many down games and his impact isn't always there. Durdin no clear position at AFL level.

Lamb, Ellis and Vickers-Willis I'm not sold on and could be other possible busts.

Clem Smith if he goes top 30 also I wouldn't be betting on.

They're the guys in their draft ranges my gut says a firm no to.

McCartin or Peter Wright even are plausible fails but I'd still back them in.

Duggan I probably wouldn't pick myself preferring others in his draft range but he's fairly safe for me.

 

[chaelsonnen]

Okay. Because most of the people I spoken to who don't rate him have only seen that video.

No didn't even know there was a video up on here. That'd be silly anyway to base it off a highlight video. I'm more interested in a lowlight video. Been following him since the Western Jets.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

No I'm going off my gut.

Maybe you need to go to the toilet.

 

[Sam The Doc]

From a fantasy point of view in 2015, which kids would you expect to make the most impact? (obviously harder before they have been drafted by respected clubs).

 

[MightyDons4]

From a fantasy point of view in 2015, which kids would you expect to make the most impact? (obviously harder before they have been drafted by respected clubs).

Petracca, Brayshaw, Bampton, Duggan, Neal-Bullen, Gore, De Goey, Blakely and Heeney (if he gets a game)

 

[Knightmare]

From a fantasy point of view in 2015, which kids would you expect to make the most impact? (obviously harder before they have been drafted by respected clubs).

Brayshaw and Petracca are the two obvious ones.

Bampton won't go high and will be a strong value, high production guy who could go bang mid year.

Blakely, Neal-Bullen and Gore are other high production guys.

Billy Stretch for Melbourne is exceptionally high production as an outside type.

Weller is another good accumulator.

Jack Steele for GWS if he gets games can find the footy.

Josh Glenn as a mature ager assuming drafted.

Toby McLean as a forward can really find the footy and should be cheap.

Liam Dawson for Brisbane can find the footy as a flanker.

Caleb Daniel and Jake Johansen as extreme smalls if drafted and getting games also can really find the footy.

They're some names to think about and watch over preseason if they look likely.

 

[captain cotch 9]

Will Hodge get picked up?
What position does he play?

For some reason I can see us getting Goddard and Hodge.
Then we will have a Reiwoldt, Goddard and Hodge

 

[Knightmare]

Will Hodge get picked up?
What position does he play?

For some reason I can see us getting Goddard and Hodge.
Then we will have a Reiwoldt, Goddard and Hodge

Having Goddard and Hodge sounds better than it is.

Hugh Goddard is terrific.

Dylan Hodge is a medium forward. He has a heavy build, isn't quick and production is not where it needs to be. I can't say I'd be drafting him but there is obviously some intrigue in club land among a small few clubs.

 

[Iluvdalhouse]

After watching hours of vision these guys are the bargin in this draft..
1.Jackson Nelson I think the best disposal in the draft
2.Mckenzie h-b running machine not the forward
3.Gore -could turn into anything
4.Keitel-still growing could end up 197 like his dad perfect CHB

thoughts

 

[HawkintheTuarts]

That's the problem with basing a view off stats alone.

And ignoring them for the sake of contradiction doesn't really help explain anything either.

 

[Knightmare]

After watching hours of vision these guys are the bargin in this draft..
1.Jackson Nelson I think the best disposal in the draft
2.Mckenzie h-b running machine not the forward
3.Gore -could turn into anything
4.Keitel-still growing could end up 197 like his dad perfect CHB

thoughts

Jackson Nelson I liked earlier in the season but he hasn't shown the improvement I would have liked this season. Not quick and production good but not elite. Ball use good but not best in the draft good.

D.McKenzie I agree is a back flanker and he has some real scope to improve. Numbers not terrific but if he can find more of it and more consistently influence games offensively he can be a good one. D.McKenzie may even go inside the top 30 so he isn't the late pick some may be touting him to be.

Gore I agree. He's a top 20 quality guy and probably goes in the 30s.

Keitel looks more like 192cm than the reported 194cm. Same story as Petracca who is said to be 194cm but really looks 190cm. Key defence may be his best go but some other key defenders I see as better in this draft - Lever/Marchbank/Goddard/McDonald/Durdin. He likely goes top 40 but overall which while fine, I'm not seeing him as being among the elite talls, which you really want.

And ignoring them for the sake of contradiction doesn't really help explain anything either.

My eye test and the stats both tell me that Clem Smith can't kick - and that's off a two year sample size so that's enough to convince me that I wouldn't want Smith off a back flank trying to find a target for my team. In the front half as a pressure forward though, that's where he intrigues me relatively speaking as there may not in the AFL be a guy with his hunger to tackle and literally hurt the opposition player in his tackles.

 

[Chris25]

And ignoring them for the sake of contradiction doesn't really help explain anything either.

It's hardly just for the sake of contradiction. Alex Neal-Bullen was second for clangers and went at 53% efficiency, but he isn't a shocking kick by any means. There's more to it than just stats though. About half of Smith's possessions were contested, and his disposal was under pressure. The same as Neal-Bullen. From what I've seen of Smith, I don't think he has a technique problem. And open field, off half back or through the middle, I have no real issue with his kicking. Most of his shanks come from trying to do too much or rushing his disposal. I just don't see any massive fundamental flaw there.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Smith ran a terrible beep test from all reports, that is certainly not going to help his chances.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Every fan is going to be hoping their recruiters elect Caleb Daniel. It's not every day that the most talented player in the draft pool could be available at 53. Hopefully the Dees take the plunge.

 

[Dunny82]

Mids now when picked early you really want them playing and playing well in season one. Mids are more variable and depends on their height/size. They start to hit their prime generally around year four and from there the improvements generally slow but there is variation. The ages of 23-28 is that real hot zone for midfielders in terms of when the produce most strongly generally.

Are there any mids or key forwards selected in the top 30 selected from both the 2012 and 2013 drafts that have particularly stood out and developed far better or worse than you had initially thought? Eg, has someone like Aish had more of an impact than you had thought he would in his first year or has Whitfield fared a little worse than expected?

Not necessarily referring to any Hawks players when I ask the question but this has popped into my head specifically with O'Brien seemingly having overtaken Grimley in the pecking order over the past couple of years at the Hawks.

 

[TerryWallet]

Every fan is going to be hoping their recruiters elect Caleb Daniel. It's not every day that the most talented player in the draft pool could be available at 53. Hopefully the Dees take the plunge.

Not me. I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole.

There is short.....and then there is Caleb Daniel.

Good footballer. But at AFL level?......No.

 

[tigs2010]

It's hardly just for the sake of contradiction. Alex Neal-Bullen was second for clangers and went at 53% efficiency, but he isn't a shocking kick by any means. There's more to it than just stats though. About half of Smith's possessions were contested, and his disposal was under pressure. The same as Neal-Bullen. From what I've seen of Smith, I don't think he has a technique problem. And open field, off half back or through the middle, I have no real issue with his kicking. Most of his shanks come from trying to do too much or rushing his disposal. I just don't see any massive fundamental flaw there.

He just doesn't slow down. Everything is a million miles an hour with Smith. His long kicking seems better than his short for mine. The kicking test is pretty rubbish but it does allow him to slow down and sounds like he faired well.

 

[Zach Package]

Jackson Nelson I liked earlier in the season but he hasn't shown the improvement I would have liked this season. Not quick and production good but not elite. Ball use good but not best in the draft good.

Maybe a bit of Jason Ashby in him Knighter?

 

[MightyDons4]

After watching hours of vision these guys are the bargin in this draft..
1.Jackson Nelson I think the best disposal in the draft
2.Mckenzie h-b running machine not the forward
3.Gore -could turn into anything
4.Keitel-still growing could end up 197 like his dad perfect CHB

thoughts

I like the look of Tom Wilkinson, Josh McGuiness and Josh Deluca-Cardillo for late bargain picks