Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Knightmare]

at this point in time, who would be the best choice for Fremantle with their first selection if Pickett/Smith are long gone?

Late first round this far out it's hard to say.

With Fremantle lacking a young quality key defender Caleb Marchbank is one I'd be looking at if available. Tyler Keitel as a forward may be another one to consider.

 

[Defacto]

It baffles me.... I know they're young but how can you accumulate that many early draft picks and still not show improvement. I know it might sound rich coming from a Sydney fan but we had much bigger retention (go home factor) issues when we were getting high picks each year back in the old days.

I'm not trying to sound vindictive but I struggle to see how you can't develop that many high picks into a valuable team... even in the short amount of time they've had in the comp.

or how do you from being flogged by richmond at home, to almost beating the reigning premiers away

so up and down

 

[Knightmare]

It baffles me.... I know they're young but how can you accumulate that many early draft picks and still not show improvement. I know it might sound rich coming from a Sydney fan but we had much bigger retention (go home factor) issues when we were getting high picks each year back in the old days.

I'm not trying to sound vindictive but I struggle to see how you can't develop that many high picks into a valuable team... even in the short amount of time they've had in the comp.

Looking back at recent draft history it's worth looking at the correlation between those who go to winning clubs v those who go to losing clubs.

Guys like Dayne Beams and a whole host of rookies come into that Collingwood 2010 team and developing in a hurry (same story with Tom Langdon this year) and the same can be said about Geelong with the way they've developed their talent from those 2008-2010 drafts who have taken over from those veterans so easily without any major drop off.

You go to a winning club and as a young player your chances to develop are greatly enhanced.

Go to a bottom club and you'll find despite early draft selections it's not so easy to fulfil that potential or do so quickly.

GWS' now that they've attracted some veteran talent have the opportunity to build and they're heading in the right direction but the slow build shouldn't come as a surprise with 18 year olds while individually they can perform well against seasoned AFL talent if good, as a team of 18 - 20 year olds they're only going to struggle and have their inconsistencies until they have 4+ seasons into them all as a team.

 

[steve hucka]

Gyday Nightmare,Do you think the Eagles will have to use there first selection on Waterman?

 

[Knightmare]

Gyday Nightmare,Do you think the Eagles will have to use there first selection on Waterman?

If I had a selection before the Eagles I'd certainly be forcing the Eagles into selecting Waterman first up. He's looking like WA's best and most ready to go talent that's for sure.

In saying that AFL clubs don't seem to rate Waterman as highly as I do at least going by what the media are suggesting to this point so there is a better than fair chance at this early stage that Waterman can be had in the second round which would be a great result for the Eagles.

 

[steve hucka]

If I had a selection before the Eagles I'd certainly be forcing the Eagles into selecting Waterman first up. He's looking like WA's best and most ready to go talent that's for sure.

In saying that AFL clubs don't seem to rate Waterman as highly as I do at least going by what the media are suggesting to this point so there is a better than fair chance at this early stage that Waterman can be had in the second round which would be a great result for the Eagles.

Thanks Knightmare

 

[bone2468]

Late first round this far out it's hard to say.

With Fremantle lacking a young quality key defender Caleb Marchbank is one I'd be looking at if available. Tyler Keitel as a forward may be another one to consider.

ive never heard of these young lads who do they play for and whats their build?

 

[bone2468]

Ramsey played well v some very good Vic Country key forwards. He only enhanced his draft chances with the performance. I haven't seen enough of him to say for sure but with further strong performances over coming weeks he can certainly increase his draft stocks.



Marchbank is a 193cm 85kg key defender. With a late year birthday he'll be a strong body down back.

Keitel is listed at 194cm 86kg and plays mostly key forward but has the ability to play down back or up the field. Wouldn't have thought he's quite that tall or strong but if they are his up to date measurements then he's also a nice height/size for his age.

They are built very well for some lads coming through the ranks, would be happy snaring one of them!

 

[aussierulesrules]

Looks like next year's draft could be a bit of a doozy?

Looking through the stats of Vic Country on the weekend for instance, it was loaded up with those that are not eligible this year, such as Mathieson, Parish, Tucker, Dunkley (all 4 in their top 7 as far as possessions for the match went), plus Schache and we've heard of others like Burton and Wiedeman having a lot going for them as well.

 

[Skippos]

Looks like next year's draft could be a bit of a doozy?

Looking through the stats of Vic Country on the weekend for instance, it was loaded up with those that are not eligible this year, such as Mathieson, Parish, Tucker, Dunkley (all 4 in their top 7 as far as possessions for the match went), plus Schache and we've heard of others like Burton and Wiedeman having a lot going for them as well.

Partington, Tahana, Francis, Weitering, O'Kearney, Ah Chee, Della Franca, Stewart too and if I'm right there's another Daniher coming through. Safe to say I'm excited

 

[Membling]

Partington, Tahana, Francis, Weitering, O'Kearney, Ah Chee, Della Franca, Stewart too and if I'm right there's another Daniher coming through. Safe to say I'm excited

Same, though with Dunkley and Mills, could be a bit of anticlimax as we have a fair idea who is coming...

 

[aussierulesrules]

Partington, Tahana, Francis, Weitering, O'Kearney, Ah Chee, Della Franca, Stewart too and if I'm right there's another Daniher coming through. Safe to say I'm excited

Ha ha, cool, sounds like we've picked a good time to bottom-out!

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Question to you knighta, how would you compare this years talls to say the last few years talls; such as Boyd, Hogan, Daniher, Patton vs McCartin, Wright, Durdin, Goddard?

Further to that, how does this years draft compare to the last few drafts?

 

[Knightmare]

Looks like next year's draft could be a bit of a doozy?

Looking through the stats of Vic Country on the weekend for instance, it was loaded up with those that are not eligible this year, such as Mathieson, Parish, Tucker, Dunkley (all 4 in their top 7 as far as possessions for the match went), plus Schache and we've heard of others like Burton and Wiedeman having a lot going for them as well.

It's another good draft as almost all are these days but probably not quite as good as this year with the sheer quantity of quality talls this year the best we've seen since 2006. Vic Country and SA particularly have some real talent for next year. But it's hardly a superdraft as the media so loosely seem to describe every year which is a term I'd limit only to the 2001 draft.

 

[Knightmare]

Question to you knighta, how would you compare this years talls to say the last few years talls; such as Boyd, Hogan, Daniher, Patton vs McCartin, Wright, Durdin, Goddard?

Further to that, how does this years draft compare to the last few drafts?

I like the ones from the past few years a touch more but mostly because I have less questions about them but there is not much at all in it with all projecting as very high level key forwards who all will hold down key forward posts to a high level.

Wright with his back issues, McCartin with diabetes it complicates the evaluation somewhat. Same can be said with Jesse Hogan and his back but I'm trusting they all are healthy.

To rate them purely on talent and there is so little between the group I'd go with of those you listed:
1. Boyd
2. Patton
3. Wright
4. Daniher
5. Hogan
6. McCartin
7. Durdin
8. Goddard

*I favour those with the extra height. I feel they've got the greater upside and scope to develop when the level of talent at such a young age is so similar.

Boyd and Patton are the physical forces as your Cloke/Hawkins variety forwards but I'm seeing both having greater success than the pair with both stronger contested marks then Hawkins but more accurate with their set shot goalkicking than Cloke.

Wright and Daniher are 3/4 on the condition they both are played as key forwards where both in my mind are clearly best suited. Wright I has extra height again on Boyd and Patton and he can kick as well as both if not even better again but with the slight back questions (not overly concerned) and the potential that he plays ruck instead of key forward I'd say Boyd/Patton both have the stronger careers. Then Daniher I rate slightly lower because he's got a slighter frame and struggles with his set shot conversion but the edge he has over all others is his ground level work.

Hogan and McCartin are those next two. Hogan is more a centre half forward and a really natural one. With his injuries this year there is some concern but I expect he'll be fine from next year and build from there. I lean towards the others mostly due to the extra height and with Hogan physically so advanced for his age I feel while he'll be Melbourne's franchise key forward and a great player in his own right I see slightly less upside to his game. McCartin similar story where where he's so physically developed and dominant already that I expect his upside to be slightly lower. He's more the deep forward which is the major difference to Hogan so he's not finding as much of the footy but both are very imposing and will be at AFL level also.

Durdin and Goddard I have questions about best position. Are they key forwards or key defenders? Are they number one options? They're both guys I can say with confidence will find a role forward or back and both be excellent key position players in their own right but I'm not seeing either as being quite as dominant.

 

[huludicidal]

Hi Knightmare,

I'm interested in your thoughts on Connor Blakely. I noticed you've valted him into the top 10 on your power rankings but I'm presuming it has been a while since you updated your draft order as he is not yet listed (well not that I can see anyway).

I know he's a mid, but that's about all I know. Pace? Righty or lefty? Interested to know more. I know he had a great game against SA but I haven't seen any footage.

Cheers.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Awesome analysis Knightmare , thanks! I'm going to re-post your work on our board.

I guess St Kilda can't go wrong with one of Wright or McCartin both available at their pick (assuming they finish bottom 2).

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare,

I'm interested in your thoughts on Connor Blakely. I noticed you've valted him into the top 10 on your power rankings but I'm presuming it has been a while since you updated your draft order as he is not yet listed (well not that I can see anyway).

I know he's a mid, but that's about all I know. Pace? Righty or lefty? Interested to know more. I know he had a great game against SA but I haven't seen any footage.

Cheers.

I'll have a Blakely bio up next update.

Blakely has been described as someone similar to Blake Acres from last year and he's a similar size and build and similar quality talent but there are some differences.

Blakely is playing WAFL seniors normally and is going very well through the midfield. Excellent by hand (this is the major difference v Acres), moves well and has agility and isn't slow but isn't a linebreaker either, nice skillset. Wins his own ball but can also find it outside. Can play forward or back if required. Strong mark overhead and pretty good tackler. Nice height and weight at 186cm, 81kg. All talk is he's a high character guy who puts in the work so with his mix of traits and the willingness to put in the work he has great scope to develop.

He's one of the really complete footballers in this draft and with his senior experience and ability to produce at that level a year one debut is within his capabilities.

One to look out for closer to the draft.

He'll likely be a late first rounder or thereabouts but somewhere around pick 10-15 he could be a very good get.

 

[Chris25]

McCartin with diabetes it complicates the evaluation somewhat.

Can't imagine that will factor into anything. Injury would be more concerning than illness for clubs. And it's not like it stopped Nathan Bassett or Dale Weightman from having long careers.

 

[Knightmare]

Can't imagine that will factor into anything. Injury would be more concerning than illness for clubs. And it's not like it stopped Nathan Bassett or Dale Weightman from having long careers.

The current example is Jack Fitzpatrick for Melbourne and while he hasn't come on as quickly as you'd ideally like it hasn't stopped him from succeeding.

As my bio has described will mean he just needs a greater level of attention to detail than everyone else which he already has so my expectation is he'll be fine as those who have had their injuries as juniors will be.

At the end of the day as far as I'm concerned talent and professional, coachable talent prevails.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Thoughts on Paul Ahern, who Shifter gave a fair wrap to on Future Stars on the weekend, after his good game for Vic Metro on the weekend?

Apparently Richo's pretty happy with our inside ball winning potential going forward and we're really keen to get some more speed and skills through the midfield. Thoughts on who they would be with picks around 20 onwards?

 

[Danair]

Just watched a replay of the Swans reserves game against NT Thunder on the weekend, and KM I think you've made a great comparison of Isaac Heeney with David Swallow. He's not as physically mature as Swallow at the same age (similar height though) but you can see the resemblance in the way he moves. Took a couple great contested marks as well. Very excited.

 

[Knightmare]

Thoughts on Paul Ahern, who Shifter gave a fair wrap to on Future Stars on the weekend, after his good game for Vic Metro on the weekend?

Apparently Richo's pretty happy with our inside ball winning potential going forward and we're really keen to get some more speed and skills through the midfield. Thoughts on who they would be with picks around 20 onwards?

I'm not aware of the comments Shifter made. Ahern probably isn't a first rounder but second round onwards he's someone I like and after pick 25 or so he could be considered.

He finds the footy, uses it well, has pace and hits the scoreboard so he's got some ability.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I'm not aware of the comments Shifter made. Ahern probably isn't a first rounder but second round onwards he's someone I like and after pick 25 or so he could be considered.

He finds the footy, uses it well, has pace and hits the scoreboard so he's got some ability.

Cheers for that. They gave him a wrap for his speed in particular (said that was his stand-out attribute) and said that he usually plays outside, but that he's now learning to play more inside as well (I see he had more contested possies than uncontested on the weekend, which was good). From memory they also gave him a wrap for his clean hands and not fumbling (something else we could really do with!).

Anyone else standing out for that sort of role from pick 20 onwards? A Lewis Taylor, ELi Templeton type, that just run really hard, has good speed and just keeps on hitting targets?

 

[Jane Doe]

What do you think of Harry Dear? Is he a likely father son selection? I hear good reports.