Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[blueiris]

With Paine the incorrect measurements (193/194cm) really worked in his favour when talking about the views of those on bigfooty.

If he was correctly listed at 191cm/192cm as a marking forward then he would only have been spoken about as a late 2nd/3rd round selection as he lacks that ground level ability and has a horrible turning circle to be an effective key forward at that height but if you said "194cm marking key forward" you'd be thinking "ok, this guy might grow another cm or two and with the strength of his marking and body work and broad shoulders then perhaps he could be effective at the position."

Keitel just doesn't have any of those problems from what I've observed as a much more mobile better ground level guy who has the ability overhead. Even if he was 191cm he could be an effective key forward because as Taylor Walker and Jarryd Roughead are, Keitel also has from the small sample size of games I've seen "has key forward talent" which is the difference v Paine. I'm assuming Keitel's measurements at 194cm are correct and if they are then assuming he performs and continues to get played forward and improves he looks to me like a top 10 quality pick and a real shot to be a high level key forward at AFL level - but being as far out from the draft as it is I do reserve judgement to change my mind as I see more of his games.

Really disappointed with Paine can't believe we traded for him dose nothing on the field will need to seriously lift soon. Or players like Paparone will go past him in fact he probably already has. Probably only getting games because Staker is injured would Keitel be a good pick up for Brisbane

 

[dlanod]

Really disappointed with Paine can't believe we traded for him dose nothing on the field will need to seriously lift soon. Or players like Paparone will go past him in fact he probably already has. Probably only getting games because Staker is injured would Keitel be a good pick up for Brisbane

Karnezis wouldn't be doing a whole lot for us on the field either...

 

[Pykie]

Hansen is still recognized as close to the best defender to play in the TAC Cup for his age.

Short memories if you are bagging him for his underage career.

He still remains in the top 3 for contested marks taken in the comp.

 

[Knightmare]

Of course Keitel is the better prospect, he hasn't already struggled at the top level. And new is always better.

It's just interesting, that's all.

It is an all too common view in recruiting, I would agree with that.

But for me give me the guy with the proven performance at AFL level and I'd be taking them 9 times out of 10.

Would you take David Swallow or Isaac Heeney first? I'd be taking Swallow. Would I be taking Oliver Wines or Angus Brayshaw first? I'd be taking Wines. Would I be taking Lewis Jetta or Jarrod Pickett? I'd be taking Jetta.

When the talent is speculated as being roughly comparable you take the guy who is producing now and you can say with certainty is doing it over the guy you speculate may be able to do the same thing because there is no doubt, particularly when you're doing it at AFL level.

In the case of Paine it's more a case of we know who he is at AFL level and who he is, isn't good enough. Whereas Keitel projects again based on a small viewing size to this point as a better talent and with better chances of making the grade which is why you would take him first.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Hansen is still recognized as close to the best defender to play in the TAC Cup for his age.

Short memories if you are bagging him for his underage career.

He still remains in the top 3 for contested marks taken in the comp.

Hansen is now a very reliable player, it is fair to say he's taken a while to get there though.

 

[Knightmare]

On the Paine for Karnezis trade it was a depth for depth trade where it's guys who weren't ever going to make it on their respective lists were rightly moved on going to situations where relatively they both had better best 22 chances going forward.

Paine was a depth key forward who could when required come into the team but he wasn't a high enough level player to hold down that key forward post long term and as a shorter guy who already had developed physically it was a case of we knew who he was and who he was, and he wasn't good enough so we let him.

For Brisbane with Karnezis it was a case of go-home factor. He wasn't happy in Brisbane as a guy who is incredibly tight with his family and he mentally struggled with that adjustment and his play for Brisbane and in the reserves was reflective of that with his inconsistency of performance and effort.
For Collingwood interestingly despite a restricted preseason and missing the start of the season he's pushing for senior selection with some strong performances in the VFL which reflects that he does have talent and seems happier and more settled now, he's mostly just being kept out of the senior side at this stage because of the unusually strong competition for places in the best team and the whole 22 performing (other than the underperforming key position players - not including Frost).
Will Karnezis be best 22 come finals time or down the road? I have others in front of him but he's a guy where if/when he receives games I expect he'll hold his own and go pretty well when that opportunity comes so he's someone who should receive another year or two before any definite decision is made on him as to whether he's made of AFL level stuff.

 

[TerryWallet]

On Goddard, he along with Durdin looked exceptional in the Big Champs games last year, which are played in AFL conditions and environment.

If they repeat that this year, i would put them right at the pointy end of the draft.

Sometimes elite kids just have their minds focused and juices stirred by the elite level.

I get the feeling that not all top level 17yo's put the same efforts into, or are suited by TAC Cup games and the conditions and atmosphere played in.

Goddard and Durdin can come to my Club if we have a Top 3 or 4 pick.

 

[Dragonss]

Thoughts on Harrison Wigg? No mention of him

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Thoughts on Harrison Wigg? No mention of him

I saw Shifter on afl.com.au compared Wigg to Suckling and he has a deadly left foot that 'opens up play.' His disposal looked very good. Really penetrating kick on him.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

Of course Keitel is the better prospect, he hasn't already struggled at the top level. And new is always better.

It's just interesting, that's all.

Keitel can turn a game in a very short period.
Has that xfactor Paine doesn't, weather its crashing a pack and taking a great mark,
or picking it up of the deck for a great snap.

 

[Chris25]

Keitel can turn a game in a very short period.
Has that xfactor Paine doesn't, weather its crashing a pack and taking a great mark,
or picking it up of the deck for a great snap.

Jackson Paine was good at that. At the U18 level, he'd crash packs, could take a big pack mark and would bob up with a couple of goals in quick succession. He could really turn a game.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Jackson Paine was good at that. At the U18 level, he'd crash packs, could take a big pack mark and would bob up with a couple of goals in quick succession. He could really turn a game.

I remember watching the U18 TAC Cup GF and Paine was a standout for Sandy.

 

[Knightmare]

On Goddard, he along with Durdin looked exceptional in the Big Champs games last year, which are played in AFL conditions and environment.

If they repeat that this year, i would put them right at the pointy end of the draft.

Sometimes elite kids just have their minds focused and juices stirred by the elite level.

I get the feeling that not all top level 17yo's put the same efforts into, or are suited by TAC Cup games and the conditions and atmosphere played in.

Goddard and Durdin can come to my Club if we have a Top 3 or 4 pick.

It's an interesting comment and I think clubs would probably agree with you on Goddard and Durdin and they're probably two I imagine in Carlton's situation would be right up the top of the list with the lack of quality young talls.

Durdin and Goddard are both definitely pieces you can build around. I'll give you that much.

Thoughts on Harrison Wigg? No mention of him

Haven't seen enough of his games. Those outside VIC I'm most familiar with are the AIS boys and those who have played SANFL/WAFL seniors specifically.

By the end of the champs expect that to change. But from the limited bits I've seen I've liked. Not tall and light bodied but can kick. At present is on my watchlist until I see a larger sample size.

Jackson Paine was good at that. At the U18 level, he'd crash packs, could take a big pack mark and would bob up with a couple of goals in quick succession. He could really turn a game.

Royal Eagle is talking about ground level ability and x-factor. Paine at no level showed he has that.

 

[Bailey01]

Clem Smith sliding???????

 

[Bailey01]

Knightmare Any idea if Durdin will slide to us?

 

[Knightmare]

Clem Smith sliding???????

I'm not a huge wrap for Smith. Others are and have him top 10.

He plays with a hard edge for a small and has pace but his footskills aren't great.

He has the ability to be a role player and be a component for a team somewhere but I wouldn't be spending a top 10 pick to make it happen. I imagine he goes somewhere roughly late 1st round.

Knightmare Any idea if Durdin will slide to us?

Durdin assuming he closes out the season strongly should go top 5.

 

[Bailey01]

I'm not a huge wrap for Smith. Others are and have him top 10.

He plays with a hard edge for a small and has pace but his footskills aren't great.

He has the ability to be a role player and be a component for a team somewhere but I wouldn't be spending a top 10 pick to make it happen. I imagine he goes somewhere roughly late 1st round.



Durdin assuming he closes out the season strongly should go top 5.

Hope he has a poor end to the year then need him

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

I'm not a huge wrap for Smith. Others are and have him top 10.

He plays with a hard edge for a small and has pace but his footskills aren't great.

He has the ability to be a role player and be a component for a team somewhere but I wouldn't be spending a top 10 pick to make it happen. I imagine he goes somewhere roughly late 1st round.

Do you think it's more he's very inconsistent by foot? I think there's a bit to work with as I've seen him hit some bullets as well as butchering it.

 

[Knightmare]

Do you think it's more he's very inconsistent by foot? I think there's a bit to work with as I've seen him hit some bullets as well as butchering it.

His kicking is not unlike that of Marley Williams. An occasional good kick but just lacks consistency and shanks it more than you'd like. Can and you'd hope will with time clean it up but early draft unless you're probably not getting drafted unless you can consistently hit their targets. Particularly as more a flanker/outside running type.

 

[steve hucka]

Who do you think Eagles will take for there first selection, jarred picket ?

 

[Dragonss]

Who do you think Richmond should pick up if they get a top 5 pick?
Brayshaw the vanilla?
Pickett the x-factor?
Petrecca the dusty clone?
Lever the defender?
Or someone else?

 

[Knightmare]

Who do you think Eagles will take for there first selection, jarred picket ?

I have Pickett in the first round for West Coast - see page 1.

Who do you think Richmond should pick up if they get a top 5 pick?
Brayshaw the vanilla?
Pickett the x-factor?
Petrecca the dusty clone?
Lever the defender?
Or someone else?

Early draft I'm a best available man. Why taken Graham Polak when you can have Chris Judd? Or Aaron Fiora when you can have Matthew Pavlich?

If Wright, McCartin, Durdin and Goddard are taken then Brayshaw is the guy or certainly should be in my mind at this stage. You can never have too many dominant midfielders and Brayshaw is that most dominant midfielder available in this draft.

If a Goddard or Durdin make it to pick 5 they also would prove major upgrades on the existing talent.

Later rounds is when Richmond can add some more outside pace and quality ball users to compliment the existing playing list.

 

[Dragonss]

Early draft I'm a best available man. Why taken Graham Polak when you can have Chris Judd? Or Aaron Fiora when you can have Matthew Pavlich?

If Wright, McCartin, Durdin and Goddard are taken then Brayshaw is the guy or certainly should be in my mind at this stage. You can never have too many dominant midfielders and Brayshaw is that most dominant midfielder available in this draft.

If a Goddard or Durdin make it to pick 5 they also would prove major upgrades on the existing talent.

Later rounds is when Richmond can add some more outside pace and quality ball users to compliment the existing playing list.

However, i'm a bit worried about Goddard and the reports about his intensity. Is there any warrant to that?

 

[Shoota Welsh]

Who do you think should be adelaide's main target? If pickett slides to us then I think we should take him due to a lack of genuinely quick wingers but we are also in need of a backup ruckman and a top class key position defender to partner talia

 

[Punter!]

KM saints may look to get into the first round with another 2 picks by off loading players and upgrading a pick exactly like last year.

Say we had picks 16 and 19 to come after taking wright or McCartin at pick #2 - who do you think saints would take and do you think they are comparable on talent to say Dunstan and Acres? Ie. Is the first round of the draft deeper than last year or weaker?

Thanks!