Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Mullayo]

Looks like your man Patfull has requested a trade to NSW Knightmare and Giants are favourities to get him. I know you would of liked him but it works in our favour still as Brisbane could package that up with pick 4. Sheils manager made it pretty clear he is happy a GWS yesterday, my next 3 would be treloar, hoskin-elliot and devon smith, what are your thoughts on them 3? Im assuming giants say boyd and cameron are untouchable. Trelour would still make us very young, but i think he already has the talent to fill in beams hole

I don't get this who gets the 4th pick? Collingwood or GWS?

It would have to come to GWS for anything to get done, we're in the strongest position in these trades both Collingwood and Brisbane are being exited.

Plus our players are younger and better than what's involved. Even if you remove upside and use AFL rankings. Beams (104) Patfull (148) and 28yrs old.

As a GWS supporter (Cameron and Boyd are no-go) we also wouldn't let Treolar (61) Devon Smith (94) go at all or WHE who is on the verge of becoming a star.
Maybe Shiel (122) + 4th or Coniglio (265) or someone like Jaksch, O'Rourke, Giles (153) who are on the way out.

 

[Oddhawk]

Drummond has had a brilliant Combine chances of him being drafted?

 

[Pendles!]

I don't get this who gets the 4th pick? Collingwood or GWS?

It would have to come to GWS for anything to get done, we're in the strongest position in these trades both Collingwood and Brisbane are being exited.

Plus our players are younger and better than what's involved. Even if you remove upside and use AFL rankings. Beams (104) Patfull (148) and 28yrs old.

As a GWS supporter (Cameron and Boyd are no-go) we also wouldn't let Treolar (61) Devon Smith (94) go at all or WHE who is on the verge of becoming a star.
Maybe Shiel (122) + 4th or Coniglio (265) or someone like Jaksch, O'Rourke, Giles (153) who are on the way out.

Wtf is this AFL ranking thing?

 

[Knightmare]

KM Shane Rogers said in trade radio carlton to look for a ruck in late of the national draft or rookie just wondering who would be a ruckman for carlton ?

Braydon Preuss from QLD, Tom Reed from SA, Rowan Marshall and Mark Pittonet from VIC and Billy Frampton from WA are the ruckmen who were at the national combine.

Wouldn't pick any of them and certainly not in the national draft, but presumably one of them.

I'd be more inclined to look at one of those American ruckmen, say Marvin Baynham as a category 2 rookie. Doesn't waste a list position that way.

Knightmare,
Food for thought.
McCartin, Wright, Brayshaw & Petracca are the clear top 4 in the pure draft.
Heeney & Moore who go to Sydney/Collingwood round out the top 6 players.
Heeney is close to the best mid in it and Moore with his finals finish is nearly at the level of the two big forwards. On a talent and versatility scale, he has both covered. His leadership is very impressive too.
Picks 6/7 to about Pick 14/15 in this draft are very even.
You could throw a blanket over them, no possible standout like the top 6.
Watch Adelaide's recruiter Hamish Ogilive discuss this at 4.57 in this video as confirmation.
http://www.afl.com.au/video/2014-10-02/combine-wrap-day-four

I'm starting to prefer Moore to McCartin and Wright and I certainly have Heeney rated more highly also. I'm cooling on McCartin and Wright personally, have some long term questions regarding both of them
- Wright with his lack of ability to take a grab when his opponent gets any body contact on him and McCartin as a really short looking key forward who doesn't look like he will lose any weight or build the tank to push up the ground. I'm just not convinced by either the more I look at them.
But clubs will come to their own conclusions as we all will.

I've got a top 3 to 13 in my power rankings then 14 through to 29 as that next group. But my assessment on a number of players will be extremely different to clubs so we'll all have our different views on that.

If the dogs trade up for 2-3 what ever Melb get, who would they go for maccartin or wright?

I'd be inclined to say McCartin. He is the more dominant of the two. But a few clubs might see it the other way and favour Wright's scope to improve.

I hear Hammelmann hasn't been nominated by the lions with the academy picks. Whats your thoughts on this knight...is there a chance he will slide into the rookie draft?

Hammelmann may slide into the rookie draft. He is a one trick pony in that he is a terrific mark on the lead but that's about the extent to his game. I'd like to see another club mid-late draft take a shot at time. In my mind he is worth a top 50 selection and certainly a national draft selection.

I don't get this who gets the 4th pick? Collingwood or GWS?

It would have to come to GWS for anything to get done, we're in the strongest position in these trades both Collingwood and Brisbane are being exited.

Plus our players are younger and better than what's involved. Even if you remove upside and use AFL rankings. Beams (104) Patfull (148) and 28yrs old.

As a GWS supporter (Cameron and Boyd are no-go) we also wouldn't let Treolar (61) Devon Smith (94) go at all or WHE who is on the verge of becoming a star.
Maybe Shiel (122) + 4th or Coniglio (265) or someone like Jaksch, O'Rourke, Giles (153) who are on the way out.

Remember with AFL rank Beams is rated at 104 because he missed the majority of the 2013 season with injury. The AFL rank system is based on a sample size of games over two years. If you miss games essentially your rating will be low. Beams would be top 20 in AFL rank otherwise.

Drummond has had a brilliant Combine chances of him being drafted?

In the mix. 50/50.
Overager. Can win the contested footy. Very explosive. Footskills and decision making more specifically are what let him down. Clubs will be weighing that up and likely whether they can live with his ball use.

Wtf is this AFL ranking thing?

http://www.afl.com.au/stats/player-ratings/ratings-hub

http://www.afl.com.au/stats/player-ratings/ratings-explained

The reason overlooked by the poster above regarding Beams and is low rating is this:
"A player's rating is determined by aggregating his points tally based on a rolling window of the previous two seasons."
Given Beams played very little in 2013 due to returning late season from injury, that is why he is not rated inside the top 20, or top 10 or wherever he would be placed based on that rating system.

 

[Pendles!]

http://www.afl.com.au/stats/player-ratings/ratings-hub

http://www.afl.com.au/stats/player-ratings/ratings-explained

The reason overlooked by the poster above regarding Beams and is low rating is this:
"A player's rating is determined by aggregating his points tally based on a rolling window of the previous two seasons."
Given Beams played very little in 2013 due to returning late season from injury, that is why he is not rated inside the top 20, or top 10 or wherever he would be placed based on that rating system.

Thanks mate, I was having a bit of crack to be honest but cheers.

 

[Suns of Anarchy]

Cockatoo blitzed the kicking, won repeat sprints, top 5 in verticals. Huge upside. One club will take a punt late first round.

 

[Knightmare]

Cockatoo blitzed the kicking, won repeat sprints, top 5 in verticals. Huge upside. One club will take a punt late first round.

Depends on how sucked in clubs get with the testing.

Cockatoo may go first round, but if he does I would hope it is because teams are convinced they can play as opposed to liking how he tested.

It's a risky business drafting guys based on superior testing. As a Gold Coast fan I'm sure the name Joel Wilkinson will ring a bell. Unlike Wilkinson, Cockatoo can apply that pace offensively in game. But the point regarding the limited stock that should be put into testing still applies.

 

[Suns of Anarchy]

Depends on how sucked in clubs get with the testing.

Cockatoo may go first round, but if he does I would hope it is because teams are convinced they can play as opposed to liking how he tested.

It's a risky business drafting guys based on superior testing. As a Gold Coast fan I'm sure the name Joel Wilkinson will ring a bell. Unlike Wilkinson, Cockatoo can apply that pace offensively in game. But the point regarding the limited stock that should be put into testing still applies.

He was first up after a long spell in that pre-GF trial game and he was explosive. Small sample true, but we're in need of a quick half forward type going forward.
Last year Clayton identified that we needed run off the back flank and drafted accordingly with Kade K & Lemmens. Who do you see as that half forward type between 7-15?

 

[Knightmare]

He was first up after a long spell in that pre-GF trial game and he was explosive. Small sample true, but we're in need of a quick half forward type going forward.
Last year Clayton identified that we needed run off the back flank and drafted accordingly with Kade K & Lemmens. Who do you see as that half forward type between 7-15?

Laverde, De Goey and Ahern on half forward would be the guys to look at in that range. Laverde is more a classy type by position, but very strong, evasive and explosive. De Goey is more a marking forward who can also play through the midfield. Then Ahern is a quicker forward.
I'll have all three bios up late Sunday night so if you check back Monday they would for that specific role be the guys to look out for.

Cockatoo I'm slightly unsure about best role. He can have a terrific impact but I'd be inclined to say he is best suited up the ground as more of a linebreaker so for that specific role he wouldn't be a consideration for me anyway.

 

[Suns of Anarchy]

Laverde, De Goey and Ahern on half forward would be the guys to look at in that range. Laverde is more a classy type by position, but very strong, evasive and explosive. De Goey is more a marking forward who can also play through the midfield. Then Ahern is a quicker forward.
I'll have all three bios up late Sunday night so if you check back Monday they would for that specific role be the guys to look out for.

Cockatoo I'm slightly unsure about best role. He can have a terrific impact but I'd be inclined to say he is best suited up the ground as more of a linebreaker so for that specific role he wouldn't be a consideration for me anyway.

Good work Km. Will tune in then.

 

[kenneje]

Hey Knightmare, what's the lowest you think Weller could fall in the draft if Gold Coast trade away their pick 14 (compensation)? Do you know what clubs might be heavily into him?

 

[Prochard123]

Hey Knightmare, is Goddard in the top 10 or top 8 contention now as a bolter?

 

[West#side]

Strongly agree with top 5.

 

[Mr Anderson]

KM Shane Rogers said in trade radio carlton to look for a ruck in late of the national draft or rookie just wondering who would be a ruckman for carlton ?

One player Carlton has kept tabs on is Josh Marchbank in the Goulburn Valley League. Previously played at Northern Blues. Very tall and athletic, has filled out a bit. Not sure if you have any more info, KM?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, what's the lowest you think Weller could fall in the draft if Gold Coast trade away their pick 14 (compensation)? Do you know what clubs might be heavily into him?

I would expect Weller is gone by pick 14 but it's not out of the question he is there depending on who other clubs like.

Closer to the draft there will likely be further indications as to exactly where players will land, with most of it at this point guesswork based on playing ability.

But if Gold Coast want Weller, pick 7 would be the pick to ensure he is secured if keen.

Hey Knightmare, is Goddard in the top 10 or top 8 contention now as a bolter?

I will have Goddard at 11 in my next update. He doesn't look like a bolter, most likely going somewhere around pick 10-15 to really narrow down his draft range. I just like him a little more than the media seem to, as evidenced by rating him a top 10 quality prospect in this draft (see my power rankings on p1).

 

[RedmanWasHere]

One player Carlton has kept tabs on is Josh Marchbank in the Goulburn Valley League. Previously played at Northern Blues. Very tall and athletic, has filled out a bit. Not sure if you have any more info, KM?

Any relation of Caleb?

 

[Knightmare]

One player Carlton has kept tabs on is Josh Marchbank in the Goulburn Valley League. Previously played at Northern Blues. Very tall and athletic, has filled out a bit. Not sure if you have any more info, KM?

He used to play ruck/key forward back in the TAC Cup and for Vic Metro back in 2010. Can mark at the highest point. Has from what I'm aware since mostly played VFL development league. Perhaps Carlton want him back with Northern Blues? He as far as I'm aware has not been invited to even the state screenings so he doesn't seem to be on the draft radar of clubs.

 

[Wooly23]

Who do you think North Melbourne should take with their picks throughout the draft?
Also when is your next update on the phantom draft?

 

[Knightmare]

Who do you think North Melbourne should take with their picks throughout the draft?
Also when is your next update on the phantom draft?

I plan weekly to update late every Sunday night.

One player I would love to see North Melbourne take is Caleb Daniel. I'd love to see what he could learn off Brent Harvey as that similar type extreme small (also 167cm). He is an incredible little player (had a disposal efficiency of over 91% through his 3 games during the U18 champs as a mid/fwd, averaging around 20 disposals per game in reduced length games). He is also well performed in the SANFL at League level. Get him late draft and you're laughing.

Toby McLean late draft I also like as a small marking forward who can push into the midfield and has some tricks. Has some Jamie Elliott to him and won the B.O.G. in the TAC Cup Grand Final.

That first round pick in North Melbourne's situation I would be inclined to shop for another established player given it is mostly key defenders representing value at that selection unless the club are ok reaching for a Menadue, Garlett or Cockatoo for some pace. Reece McKenzie as a key forward while he likely doesn't go that high either could be a further consideration as a real power mark and goal key forward.

 

[Wooly23]

I plan weekly to update late every Sunday night.

One player I would love to see North Melbourne take is Caleb Daniel. I'd love to see what he could learn off Brent Harvey as that similar type extreme small (also 167cm). He is an incredible little player (had a disposal efficiency of over 91% through his 3 games during the U18 champs as a mid/fwd, averaging around 20 disposals per game in reduced length games). He is also well performed in the SANFL at League level. Get him late draft and you're laughing.

Toby McLean late draft I also like as a small marking forward who can push into the midfield and has some tricks. Has some Jamie Elliott to him and won the B.O.G. in the TAC Cup Grand Final.

That first round pick in North Melbourne's situation I would be inclined to shop for another established player given it is mostly key defenders representing value at that selection unless the club are ok reaching for a Menadue, Garlett or Cockatoo for some pace. Reece McKenzie as a key forward while he likely doesn't go that high either could be a further consideration as a real power mark and goal key forward.

Ok I'll be reading them.
Yeh I would love Daniels would be perfect to take over from boomer.
I hope we are really interested in cockatoo seen he trained with us in the preseason and his game and testing were unreal, would happily use our first or second pick on him or even Garlett and menadue.
Then go tall with our other picks.

 

[Demon 16]

Hey KM,

apologies as I can see you have fielded a number of questions on Nakia Cockatoo who has obviously impressed with his GF day match, plus excellent testing results.

I am very hopeful Melbourne take a punt on him with pick 22.

Could you please take a stab at what range you think he will go at? Early/late teens, twenties, thirties??

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,

apologies as I can see you have fielded a number of questions on Nakia Cockatoo who has obviously impressed with his GF day match, plus excellent testing results.

I am very hopeful Melbourne take a punt on him with pick 22.

Could you please take a stab at what range you think he will go at? Early/late teens, twenties, thirties??

Cockatoo's draft range feels up in the air and there are some varied opinions at the moment making it unclear. Some are claiming he could go as high as the 10-20 range, others see him more a second or third round selection and we might not know for certain until draft day.

If I was to hazard a guess where he goes, probably somewhere 20-30 given the recent hype and that would in my view feel around right for him.

I imagine Melbourne need to use that second round pick on Stretch so it is unlikely unless a further pick around that range is added that Cockatoo would be available to Melbourne unless Cockatoo slides into the third round which while possible is increasingly against the odds.

 

[SugarCoat]

Hey Knightmare.
Did you see Hamish Oligive's comments yesterday?
He said Moore would be a 1, 2 or 3 pick in this draft if not F/S.
Said on a talent basis, he has the most natural talent of any draftee.
Also said he could be considered equal of McCartin & Wright and thought he was more versatile than McCartin.
Are you surprised by these comments?
He also said Picks 7 to Pick 15 are very even with no real standout.

 

[Demon 16]

Cockatoo's draft range feels up in the air and there are some varied opinions at the moment making it unclear. Some are claiming he could go as high as the 10-20 range, others see him more a second or third round selection and we might not know for certain until draft day.

If I was to hazard a guess where he goes, probably somewhere 20-30 given the recent hype and that would in my view feel around right for him.

I imagine Melbourne need to use that second round pick on Stretch so it is unlikely unless a further pick around that range is added that Cockatoo would be available to Melbourne unless Cockatoo slides into the third round which while possible is increasingly against the odds.

Thanks KM.

I'm still (perhaps naively) hopeful that Stretch may fall to the third round - someone will effectively need to nominate him with their first round pick otherwise.

Most people seem to be pinning him at our second rounder though so I will probably be disappointed there.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare.
Did you see Hamish Oligive's comments yesterday?
He said Moore would be a 1, 2 or 3 pick in this draft if not F/S.
Said on a talent basis, he has the most natural talent of any draftee.
Also said he could be considered equal of McCartin & Wright and thought he was more versatile than McCartin.
Are you surprised by these comments?
He also said Picks 7 to Pick 15 are very even with no real standout.

I did hear the interview.

I can't say I disagree with any of that. McCartin and Wright I've cooled on the past couple of months. McCartin looks shorter than what he is listed at, is carrying a bit too much weight and I'm not convinced he loses it, he is a deep forward only and doesn't look like he will build the tank to go higher up the field. Then Wright as big and tall as he is with any body contact just drops his marks as a clean uncontested mark who at training would take the mark 10/10 times but put a body on him and that drops to 2/10, even against smaller opponents.

Moore just feels the safer and higher upside of the key position players as the guy I have the least questions about and most confidence in the development of.

I slightly prefer the midfielders early - Petracca, Brayshaw and Heeney I also rate higher but I've as of about Tuesday this week had Moore at 4 on my draft board and as my top rated tall in this draft.

After those first two for me (most will say four with McCartin and Wright) it is really that next group through till about 20, then that next group to about 30, and just pick your preference from that group. So that comment is also about right.

Thanks KM.

I'm still (perhaps naively) hopeful that Stretch may fall to the third round - someone will effectively need to nominate him with their first round pick otherwise.

Most people seem to be pinning him at our second rounder though so I will probably be disappointed there.

Stretch is worth that second round pick so sleep easy if you get him there. Exceptionally well performed through the U18 champs and SANFL at League level. He gives Melbourne what is needed with his pace and footskills on the outside. But you never say never until you know the outcome, it is entirely possible the other clubs late first round like others more.