Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Knightmare]

Devon Smith?

He's a terrific player already but again as a small is he likely to continue to elevate his game much further than what it is now? For me that's unclear. It might be a small improvement but not like what some of the others I feel are capable of with their mix of traits.

 

[Demonheart]

Melbourne are reportedly keen on signing Ben Newton as a DFA, if successful, would that change your draft prognosis (re Brayshaw at 2), and instead look to take a couple of the best KPP's and set themselves up for the next decade? (Wright as a 2nd rck/fwd and a KPD along with Hogan would be something to behold)

I really wish you'd drop this obsession you have with us taking two talls with pick 2 & 3.

 

[Stylo]

I really wish you'd drop this obsession you have with us taking two talls with pick 2 & 3.

I think bombers fans want all the talls taken before their picks so they can have Brayshaw and Weller

 

[fronkalicious]

Apologies. Half asleep after a big week.

I'll get up a top 50 for 2010-2014 to include this year. A five year sample size is always more fun than three.

1. Jeremy Cameron
2. Jonathan Patton
3. Thomas Boyd
4. Thomas Lynch
5. Jaeger O'Meara
6. Oliver Wines
7. Adam Treloar
8. Marcus Bontempelli
9. Brad Crouch
10. Dyson Heppell
11. Christian Petracca
12. Angus Brayshaw
13. Joe Daniher
14. Tom Liberatore
15. Luke Parker
16. David Swallow
17. Isaac Heeney
18. Chad Wingard
19. Jackson Macrae
20. Darcy Moore
21. Brodie Grundy
22. Harley Bennell
23. Dylan Shiel
24. Jesse Hogan
25. Patrick McCartin
26. Tom Nicholls
27. Jarrod Witts
28. Scott Lycett
29. Dion Prestia
30. Tim Broomhead
31. Brodie Smith
32. Martin Gleeson
33. James Aish
34. Luke McDonald
35. Kade Kolodjashnij
36. Jack Billings
37. Dom Tyson
38. Jared Polec
39. Brandon Ellis
40. Matthew Scharenberg
41. Jack Martin
42. Josh Kelly
43. Stephen Coniglio
44. Lachie Whitfield
45. Peter Wright
46. Charlie Dixon
47. Rory Thompson
48. Adam Tomlinson
49. Blake Acres
50. Connor Blakely


I'm sure someone will let me know if I've missed some guys.

So you're saying carlton are screwed. Finished 13th and no top 50 young talents from the last 5 years.

 

[Ricky90]

Knightmare, general question - how accurate have your phantom drafts been and where do they start to drop away and really differ from the actual draft? I assume over the years you're getting better at spotting the talent and, I guess, the 'type' of guys recruiters like to draft.

Also, when you're doing your final phantom draft do you take into account what you hear being in the business and talking to the kids and others in the business/media, or do you base it entirely on what you've seen in their footy? It'd be fantastic to know how close you get based entirely on what you've seen and not what you've heard. I certainly love reading your work and would love to see you really nail it year and year out and if it's something you're keen on, perhaps even pick up some paid work in the industry - because you certainly seem to have a passion and that should never go unrewarded.

 

[Cringle]

So you're saying carlton are screwed. Finished 13th and no top 50 young talents from the last 5 years.

Because Carlton would be in a better position with Witts, Nicholls, Lycett, Gleeson and Acres then with shit talents like Menzel and Cripps. You're right. That list really has condemned us.

 

[HARKER]

So you're saying carlton are screwed. Finished 13th and no top 50 young talents from the last 5 years.

Seems as though Hawthorn & Geelong are screwed also then

Gee, Collingwood are flying with Sharenberg, Witts, Moore and even Broomhead at 30
How did that come about.........oh hang on..................Just kidding Knightmare

 

[Knightmare]

So you're saying carlton are screwed. Finished 13th and no top 50 young talents from the last 5 years.

With the nature of the compromised drafts being dominated by GWS and Gold Coast it has made it challenging for other clubs to find these top end guys.

Hawthorn (Hill) and West Coast (Darling and Gaff) can be considered unlucky not to have any names in there and they would have names in the next 10-20 at worst. Geelong are another where they have a terrific young core group coming through and are unlucky not to have any names in there but for me they lack that starpower coming through with no guys I look at as franchise players.

Then a few other teams have only 1-2 I have in that top 50.

Carlton historically if you go through the years are a poor and probably one of the worst clubs when it comes to drafting talent. A part of that would relate to poor player development, but it's hard to see any even top 5 on list type talents coming through for Carlton. In making that comment Carlton are far from "screwed" and probably I expect come close to making the top 8 next year as a list with some pretty good mid career - veteran talent along with an injection of further mid career talent. They're not winning a premiership with their current list, but few are likely to in the near future, my team (Collingwood) included which is starting to look more like a youth development academy more than a team that looks a threat to contend.

Knightmare, general question - how accurate have your phantom drafts been and where do they start to drop away and really differ from the actual draft? I assume over the years you're getting better at spotting the talent and, I guess, the 'type' of guys recruiters like to draft.

Also, when you're doing your final phantom draft do you take into account what you hear being in the business and talking to the kids and others in the business/media, or do you base it entirely on what you've seen in their footy? It'd be fantastic to know how close you get based entirely on what you've seen and not what you've heard. I certainly love reading your work and would love to see you really nail it year and year out and if it's something you're keen on, perhaps even pick up some paid work in the industry - because you certainly seem to have a passion and that should never go unrewarded.

The top 10 is usually pretty close. After that you'll as the draft progresses see a greater level of variation. Generally I get the draft ranges pretty well right but actually connecting players to particular clubs after the top 10 is generally just guesswork.

My bios are based on what I see and my power rankings are my views of where I'd take particular guys. But when creating my phantom draft I think about who clubs are actually going to selection - taking into account media rumours and a degree of common sense while also fitting guys as best as can practically be achieved into roughly their expected draft range.

 

[Knightmare]

Seems as though Hawthorn & Geelong are screwed also then

Gee, Collingwood are flying with Sharenberg, Witts, Moore and even Broomhead at 30
How did that come about.........oh hang on..................Just kidding Knightmare

I also forgot Jamie Elliott who should also be in there. I knew I forgot someone.

I like Collingwood's young talent a lot, Collingwood draft consistently well, I just don't see Collingwood contending any time soon with the list so heavily geared towards developing young talent, with veterans declining prematurely and mid career guys not progressing either. It's not a winning formula, as much as it looks good on the above list when you look at it in isolation.

 

[HARKER]

I also forgot Jamie Elliott who should also be in there. I knew I forgot someone.

I like Collingwood's young talent a lot, Collingwood draft consistently well, I just don't see Collingwood contending any time soon with the list so heavily geared towards developing young talent, with veterans declining prematurely and mid career guys not progressing either. It's not a winning formula, as much as it looks good on the above list when you look at it in isolation.

..............and Freeman of course. GUN!!!!! .......................and Kennedy.

I agree that other than Menzel and Cripps there are no other names that jump out where Carlton are concerned.
Tip: Keep an eye out for the two Irishmen in Sheehan and Byrne.

 

[kaistar]

Knight this my top 10 for each position since 2010 till now.
Key forwards
Jeremy cameron
Tom lynch
Darcy moore
Joe daniher
Tom Boyd
Jonathan patton
Jack darling
Scott Lycett
Patrick Mccartin
Adam tomilnson
Mid sized high half forwards
will Hoskin elliot
Jack Martin
Chad wingard
Harley bennel
Devon smith
Brandon matera
Jamie elliot
Jake stringer
Tim broomhead
Jayden laverde
Wingman:
Lachie Whitfield
Josh kelly
Andrew swallow
Brandon ellis
Jackson macrae
Andrew gaff
Brad hill
Isaac smith
Cameron Guthrie

Stars:
Treloar
O'meara
Shiel
Wines
Heppel
Bontempelli
Parker
B.crouch
Whitfield
Petracca

Rebounding defenders
Trent mckenzie
Brodie smith
Lachlan plowman
Matt scharenberg
Kade kolodjsnij
Tom bugg
Nick vlaustin
Matt buntine
Jake lever

Key defender
Daniel talia
Sam may
Rory Thompson
Jack Frost
hugh Goddard
Sam frost
Sam durdin
Tom McDonald
Caleb Marchebank
Jonathan marsh.
Thoughts km?

 

[Knightmare]

..............and Freeman of course. GUN!!!!! .......................and Kennedy.

I agree that other than Menzel and Cripps there are no other names that jump out where Carlton are concerned.
Tip: Keep an eye out for the two Irishmen in Sheehan and Byrne.

I don't rate Freeman or Kennedy so highly. Freeman maybe top 90, he can be a Luke Shuey equivalent for Collingwood. Kennedy perhaps top 110 or so as someone who can be a long term player but probably not a star.

Carlton are hitting with some of those Irishmen. You never quite know just how good they can become.

Knight this my top 10 for each position since 2010 till now.
Key forwards
Jeremy cameron
Tom lynch
Darcy moore
Joe daniher
Tom Boyd
Jonathan patton
Jack darling
Scott Lycett
Patrick Mccartin
Adam tomilnson
Mid sized high half forwards
will Hoskin elliot
Jack Martin
Chad wingard
Harley bennel
Devon smith
Brandon matera
Jamie elliot
Jake stringer
Tim broomhead
Jayden laverde
Wingman:
Lachie Whitfield
Josh kelly
Andrew swallow
Brandon ellis
Jackson macrae
Andrew gaff
Brad hill
Isaac smith
Cameron Guthrie

Stars:
Treloar
O'meara
Shiel
Wines
Heppel
Bontempelli
Parker
B.crouch
Whitfield
Petracca

Rebounding defenders
Trent mckenzie
Brodie smith
Lachlan plowman
Matt scharenberg
Kade kolodjsnij
Tom bugg
Nick vlaustin
Matt buntine
Jake lever

Key defender
Daniel talia
Sam may
Rory Thompson
Jack Frost
hugh Goddard
Sam frost
Sam durdin
Tom McDonald
Caleb Marchebank
Jonathan marsh.
Thoughts km?

Daniel Talia was 2009 but close enough.

A number of players I see very differently. Whitfield isn't/won't be a star.

Andrew Swallow or even David Swallow are not wings. Andrew was drafted back in 2005ish, David was 2010.

Lycett while capable up front is more a ruckman - just behind Naitanui/Cox he has been forward. Expect him to share the ruck duties with Naitanui from next season.

 

[HARKER]

I don't rate Freeman or Kennedy so highly. Freeman maybe top 90, he can be a Luke Shuey equivalent for Collingwood. Kennedy perhaps top 110 or so as someone who can be a long term player but probably not a star.

Carlton are hitting with some of those Irishmen. You never quite know just how good they can become.

#27 GWS (Via Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs) - Tim Broomhead (SA – Util)
Height: 182cm, Weight: 73g, DOB: 22/03/1994
Recruited from: Port Adelaide
Profile: Broomhead is a versatile type who can play midfield, forward or back to a high level. Broomhead has a solid all round game. Wins his own ball, has a good but not great skill set, has some real pace and is strong overhead. Broomhead will start his career in more of an outside role and hopefully work his way inside as that part of his game develops further and he adds more size to his frame.

This is what you thought of Broomhead in his draft year.
He's only played 8 games in two years and showed a bit in two of them. How does he become the 30th best player in the past 3 years?

How do you see him as a better bet than let's say Docherty or even Buckley.
Not having a go at you but just trying to understand your reasoning.

 

[SugarCoat]

Carlton have close to or if not the worst quality youth depth in the AFL.

 

[HARKER]

Carlton have close to or if not the worst quality youth depth in the AFL.

Because you've watched all the kids or just wanting to be hero?
Don't be a parrot and tell me something about Holman, Byrne and Giles.

Scharenberg won't be seeing a game until 2016 but he's going to be a gun. Right?

 

[SugarCoat]

Because you've watched all the kids or just wanting to be hero?

Don't be a parrot and tell me something about Holman, Byrne and Giles.

Holman played some VFL games for our VFL side in 2013 as a designated 23rd player.
He didn't standout and it reflects his late selection.
Is he meant to be an example of your quality in your youth department?

 

[HARKER]

Holman played some VFL games for our VFL side in 2013 as a designated 23rd player.
He didn't standout and it reflects his late selection.
Is he meant to be an example of your quality in your youth department?

That's all you have?

That will be be enough from you. Thanks.

 

[SugarCoat]

That's all you have?

That will be be enough from you. Thanks.

What else is there?
Can you tell me what Holman has done to be touted as a quality player?
When you are delisting players such as Tom Temay only 2 years after he was drafted, along with your first pick the year before, it's easy to see why Carlton don't have a lot of quality youth.

 

[Knightmare]

This is what you thought of Broomhead in his draft year.
He's only played 8 games in two years and showed a bit in two of them. How does he become the 30th best player in the past 3 years?

How do you see him as a better bet than let's say Docherty or even Buckley.
Not having a go at you but just trying to understand your reasoning.

I saw only a small sample size of Broomhead in his draft year and he didn't stand out.

Since seeing him in the VFL and more recently at AFL level my view has changed drastically re. Broomhead. That happens as you see guys more.

Broomhead is already only of Collingwood's best players despite having only played a small number of games at AFL level. He is damaging anywhere, forward, midfield or back, skillset is excellent as a guy who can hit his targets inside 50 and finish, strong 1v1, exceptionally quick and can take on the game. He has a complete and damaging game. Don't sleep on him for the rising star next year. If he gets a full preseason he'll come close if not win it.

 

[HARKER]

I saw only a small sample size of Broomhead in his draft year and he didn't stand out.

Since seeing him in the VFL and more recently at AFL level my view has changed drastically re. Broomhead. That happens as you see guys more.

Broomhead is already only of Collingwood's best players despite having only played a small number of games at AFL level. He is damaging anywhere, forward, midfield or back, skillset is excellent as a guy who can hit his targets inside 50 and finish, strong 1v1, exceptionally quick and can take on the game. He has a complete and damaging game. Don't sleep on him for the rising star next year. If he gets a full preseason he'll come close if not win it.

So in effect you've watched Collingwood games and maybe not others.

That's what I thought would be the case. That's O.K.
It's impossible to track the development of every kid once they hit an AFL environment.

It's odd that people just don't seem to rate any Carlton players and that's their entitlement but I'm pretty happy for:

Menzel, Cripps, Buckley, Docherty, Byrne, Sheehan, Jaksch, Giles and Holman............because I've watched them.

 

[Stylo]

So in effect you've watched Collingwood games and maybe not others.

That's what I thought would be the case. That's O.K.
It's impossible to track the development of every kid once they hit an AFL environment.

It's odd that people just don't seem to rate any Carlton players and that's their entitlement but I'm pretty happy for:

Menzel, Cripps, Buckley, Docherty, Byrne, Sheehan, Jaksch, Giles and Holman............because I've watched them.

In all honesty, it's not a particularly intimidating list compared to others.

 

[HARKER]

In all honesty, it's not a particularly intimidating list compared to others.

Maybe because there may be less than 50 games between the lot there and most wouldn't even know for some of the guys capabilities.
Time will tell.

Anyway, this is a 2014 draft thread. Sorry for the hijacking.

 

[SugarCoat]

In all honesty, it's not a particularly intimidating list compared to others.

It's funny how all of a sudden Jacksch is considered a good player.

 

[Knightmare]

So in effect you've watched Collingwood games and maybe not others.

That's what I thought would be the case. That's O.K.
It's impossible to track the development of every kid once they hit an AFL environment.

It's odd that people just don't seem to rate any Carlton players and that's their entitlement but I'm pretty happy for:

Menzel, Cripps, Buckley, Docherty, Byrne, Sheehan, Jaksch, Giles and Holman............because I've watched them.

I watch essentially all games I can watch.

I view the weekly replays of the VFL/SANFL/WAFL weekly games so I see roughly as much of each team.

As it turns out Broomhead is just a better talent than any of Carlton's young players. He just impacts games on another level.

 

[Stylo]

Maybe because there may be less than 50 games between the lot there and most wouldn't even know for some of the guys capabilities.
Time will tell.

Anyway, this is a 2014 draft thread. Sorry for the hijacking.

Any fan of another club could do the same though and probably throw in some more highly touted names on top. Just because you've seen more of Carlton's obscure young talent than others doesn't make them any better than that of other sides.