Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[TheMcManusNose]

Why do you say that?

We have an abundance of non-KPP types who are either already playing there in Ryan, Wilson, Hughes, Logue, Nyhuis, Spurr a few mid types who tend to play more off half back in Tucker, Sheridan, Sutcliffe and occasionally S.Hill/Mundy. Plus whatever Blakely does this year (should be a starting mid but whatever).

Plenty of youth and experience there. Probably about the last thing on our shopping list.

 

[Knightmare]

A level 12.9 beep and 3.05 second 20-metre sprint is by no means flashy, but not sure about incredibly poor.

Regardless, the past has shown inital athleticism isn't the be all and end all. Patrick Cripps recorded a level 13.2 beep and 3.1+ second 20-metre sprint in his draft year.

They're not good numbers.

The issue less than testing (I don't care about testing) is what he does in game. He is immobile. At stoppages he is almost never on the move, nor is he when he wins the ball. He doesn't cover much ground and doesn't get up to any speed on match day. Those are his issues.

KM what is this late buzz re Nathan Murphy? I see you haven’t rated him highly.

Murphy is developable but will need a couple of years developing. Good athlete, versatile, can take a mark. There is something to work with. He's one I'd be more comfortable looking at mid-draft than I would early draft. He's a 30-50 type in my extended power rankings, and with clubs rating him around the 20s or thereabouts, he's one I'd let someone else draft.

If Cerra is gone before pick 4 for North which of Dow, Rayner or LDU do you think is the one most likely to slide? If it is Rayner do you think North would pass him up as well for someone like Brayshaw who may be seen has having better midfield prospects?

Great question and possible. Fremantle like Cerra and may for all we know look at him with pick 2.

Whichever of LDU or Dow that doesn't go pick 1, may make it to pick 4, is my feel.

Hey KM. Given that the Pies yesterday delisted Sinclair (technically retired) Ramsay & Oxley, and there has been talk that Maynard may move to a more midfield role, in your opinion do you think that brings Coffield into the equation for pick 6?

Collingwood are ok down back. Maynard, Scharenberg, Howe and Langdon with Varcoe rotating back. Sam Murray was added and Collingwood intend to play him and may allow Maynard some midfield minutes and Varcoe more time up the field. Aish also best suited to play back (but as depth until he's not). That's a fair number of pretty good options down back. I'm not stressed by those back half stocks, and would probably more rookie draft or maybe late draft if it's the right option, look to fill the need, rather than with the clubs first choice.

Coffield is a possible. If drafted with pick 6 though, Collingwood would have to develop him into a midfielder eventually. Pick 6 is entirely too much to spend on someone who will be a career general defender and probably doesn't become a star by position with his 1v1 stuff only so-so.

So what you're just saying is Richmond lack guys who have both pace and skill. Again, I think Richmond have guys like Edwards, Martin and Cotchin who fit that well.

And be wary about using DE% as a stat to determine club needs or determine the skill levels of a side. For starters a team DE% includes everything, handballs in traffic, switches by backman, kicks by forwards so it's hard to use that stat and then draw specific conclusions about what certain parts of the ground need. Secondly Richmond midfielders were instructed to kick forward as much as possible knowing the forwards could lock it up, so accuracy wasn't prioritised as much, with some teams looking to play a more deliberate slow play. If you look at the teams which dominate DE% they also tend to be high possession teams who chip the ball around a lot which inflates their DE%. St Kilda finished 3rd on that stat, with Fremantle finishing 6th, North 8th and Collingwood 9th, yet all those teams have been criticised for their kicking skills especially in the midfield. This is why I don't rate the stat to judge disposal skills, because teams are playing different games. To use a specific player example Martin has a DE% of 65% and Tom Rockliff has a DE% of 69% because he handballs more. But who's a better kick going forward? My thing with Hayes is once you take away his ruck skills is there a guy who can make it as a forward? If so then Richmond should give him a go, but as you said he's not a dominant forward. I think ruckmen are overrated in the modern era and with Grigg rucking in the grand final, Richmond dominated the clearances. Relieving rucks are overrated. Give me a proper forward. Hayes has also very "big man athleticism" about him too poor endurance not overly agile or quick and not great at his feet. It's not his fault he's 200cm+ but it does hurt him in the modern era of endurance, speed and pressure. In general every team, not just Richmond puts more pressure on than say 5, 10 years ago. I feel like Hayes types are dinosaurs.

That's three guys and two of them play inside roles. The outside quality doesn't impress me.

I am like you very familiar with the nature of the DE% stat. And your points and examples are right. Though it doesn't make the stat invalid as much as it just requires the correct interpretation and understanding of the stat, balancing the playing style of the team into the equation. Looking at that stat and also not seeing guys who do a great deal of damage by foot, I can't class Richmond as a good kicking side. Martin has the hurt factor and reliability, and Cotchin uses it well. I don't look at Richmond as a whole team as a good kicking team. Prestia? Lambert? Graham? Butler? Castagna? Townsend? McIntosh? That's a lot of guys who are poor kicks. And that's before looking at those who don't do damage which I'd oRucnly be prepaired to say of Martin. With Cotchin, Riewoldt, Edwards who only others I'd say who are above average kicks.

For pressure and following up Hayes is actually very good at the ruck contests. His movement also is fine - which is aided by getting to the right spots around the ground to be involved as a ruckman. Overall, the evaluation of Hayes as someone who probably goes around pick 20 I feel is fairly reflective of his potential. Ruckmen don't get drafted as early anymore, with Tim English the last ruckman since Brodie Grundy to go first round (and that's back end of first round), with clubs understanding that many have come as rookies or late draft and there have been enough early ruck misses for clubs to be cautious.

Also what's a general defender?

Includes back flankers and back pockets. Basically anyone who plays back that isn't a key defender.

 

[rog1995]

Knightmare apologies if this has been asked before. What would you say would be the dream/realistic pick up for Carlton at pick 3 and pick 10.

 

[McCraeBF]

Hi Knight

Bill call with Bulldogs now not taking R.Smith on main list.

Who do you think they are looking at for pick 82..must be a spec pic

 

[unplugged]

Hi knightmare, I see your power rankings extend to 30 on post 6. Is that the largest list you've got available?

 

[Footywizard]

I watched some of Tim Kelly's work last night. I'd love him at the roos and I'd be prepared to use our pick 23 on him.
I don't think that's too much of a reach. Thoughts knightmare?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare apologies if this has been asked before. What would you say would be the dream/realistic pick up for Carlton at pick 3 and pick 10.

Rayner probably is the dream choice at 3.

No clear best/dream choice at 10 with the draft evening out after those first four. 10 is very subjective.

Hi Knight

Bill call with Bulldogs now not taking R.Smith on main list.

Who do you think they are looking at for pick 82..must be a spec pic

Could the Dogs go for a delisted free agent?

Maybe a mature ager with 82? Adam Sambono as a crumbing forward is one who may be considered around that range.

Hi knightmare, I see your power rankings extend to 30 on post 6. Is that the largest list you've got available?

I normally run a top 50 each year (to match what clubs normally go into each draft with). Out of habit I'll probably do the same again this year. Have been time poor and ESPN only want my top 20, so have been lazy after that top 20 in putting together my extended power rankings.

I watched some of Tim Kelly's work last night. I'd love him at the roos and I'd be prepared to use our pick 23 on him.
I don't think that's too much of a reach. Thoughts knightmare?

Kelly may not be there at pick 64, so if North want Kelly, pick 23 may be what needs to be paid.

With pick 23, while it's earlier than I'm expecting him to go and earlier than I'd pick him (30s I'd personally feel more comfortable looking at him). If he has a solid AFL career, with a pick in the 20s, you do it.

 

[Sunnyjim]

Hi KM, do you know if the saints are interested in Stephenson ?

 

[dajesmac]

Hey KM,

I was wondering if you could give us your view on Oscar Allen as a midfield prospect?

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

Rayner probably is the dream choice at 3.

No clear best/dream choice at 10 with the draft evening out after those first four. 10 is very subjective.



Could the Dogs go for a delisted free agent?

Maybe a mature ager with 82? Adam Sambono as a crumbing forward is one who may be considered around that range.



I normally run a top 50 each year (to match what clubs normally go into each draft with). Out of habit I'll probably do the same again this year. Have been time poor and ESPN only want my top 20, so have been lazy after that top 20 in putting together my extended power rankings.



Kelly may not be there at pick 64, so if North want Kelly, pick 23 may be what needs to be paid.

With pick 23, while it's earlier than I'm expecting him to go and earlier than I'd pick him (30s I'd personally feel more comfortable looking at him). If he has a solid AFL career, with a pick in the 20s, you do it.

That's interesting KM I see WCE using pick 26 on Tim Kelly, and I think he is value there.
Apart from us wce, carlton are into him big time and expect they would use pick 30 on him.
He is also a main part with why wce traded next years first for those second rounders

 

[Daniels Riches]

That's interesting KM I see WCE using pick 26 on Tim Kelly, and I think he is value there.
Apart from us wce, carlton are into him big time and expect they would use pick 30 on him.
He is also a main part with why wce traded next years first for those second rounders

Think the Lions may have some interest there too

 

[M Malice]

Think the Lions may have some interest there too

I'd love to get Tim Kelly to the club but 18 is probably too early and our next picks are in the 40s and they will more than likely be used on matching a bid for Connor Ballenden, unfortunately it would be a massive long shot to get Kelly.

 

[Moeydw]

I know its hard to predict but which players do you think will slide out to the 3rd/4th round that could potentially become the steals of the draft?

 

[Daniels Riches]

I'd love to get Tim Kelly to the club but 18 is probably too early and our next picks are in the 40s and they will more than likely be used on matching a bid for Connor Ballenden, unfortunately it would be a massive long shot to get Kelly.

Totally agree mate. Would love him at the Lions, but with the picks we have seems unlikely.

 

[Mojorisin]

Could the Dogs go for a delisted free agent?

Maybe a mature ager with 82? Adam Sambono as a crumbing forward is one who may be considered around that range.

I have been keen for sambono at the dogs for a few months now. This just makes it that little bit easier. I would be over the moon.

 

[king rising]

Is Dow a good chance to land at Norths pick #4?

 

[RJC91]

Is Dow a good chance to land at Norths pick #4?

Unfortunately, I don’t think so.
I would be stoked if did but.

 

[RedBulls]

Just curious who you might see being on the board still when Port enters the draft. I'd love to look at some talls maybe a ruckman and KPD.

On SM-G920V using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

We don't need more mids.

Then why is there a rumor about Slone being courted by your side then.

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

I would be genuinely surprised if Pies went Naughton with 6, given what else is available and key defenders traditionally not taken that early. Marchbank being the exception but if he is that good well done to them.

I live 15 minutes from Peel thunders home oval but never made an effort to watch Naughton. Any 2018 draftees from Peel worth noting?


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Plowman

 

[_RT_]

Richmond have a lot of guys who can heap on pressure, but in terms of pace and skill, I do look at Richmond as deficient.

Menadue has promising attributes with his pace and evasion but isn't clearly AFL standard with his ball winning not up to scratch. Markov has pace and can leap and take a mark, but his skills and decision making is a ? for me. Both are possibles but neither are convincing yet.

Richmond do have enough speedy types and aren't a slow team, but I find myself not rating a lot of those speedy types, with a lot of Richmond's quicker players having poor skills or decision making. Richmond I feel need good quality players with good skills and decision making back, outside and through the midfield.

As for Hayes. He is a genuine ruckman. He was an Under-18 All-Australian ruckman as an underager. He's just a genuine ruckman who happens to be equally capable as a key forward, which is why so many are attracted to his game. At 203cm, he is no tweener. It's just a question of talent ID and how much you like his game and what you see his upside as being.

Bolton Butler Castagna Markov Menadue Rioli Short & Stengle are our young outside run and carry types coming through. All have played under 50 games and most still trying to establish themselves in the line up. Add Naish to the mix and IMO it is a good group coming through. Don't get me wrong I understand what you're saying about them lacking decision making but as young inexperienced types they will still be prone to the odd error in decision making as they understand what they are capable and incapable of doing on the field.

I like the Hayes pick and reckon he'd be a perfect addition to our list, with Hampson carrying a back injury, Griffiths a head knock away from possibly having to retire and Soldo as our only other ruck option we need a good young ruck to come in and develop. It could allow is in years to come to play Nankervis in a Brendan Gale type of role where he played CHF and provided relief in the ruck.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, do you know if the saints are interested in Stephenson ?

Haven't heard to be certain, but if there, I'm expecting Saints take him for the value he would represent with one of their choices.

Hey KM,

I was wondering if you could give us your view on Oscar Allen as a midfield prospect?

I'm not aware of Allen playing any midfield so there isn't any evidence to go off that I'm aware of. It's not something I'd discount though. Has genuine football smarts and is very good at ground level. Willing tackler. I'm not sure it's something he would make his main go, but he is someone who could pinch-hit through there potentially if that's what a club wanted him to do for periods.

That's interesting KM I see WCE using pick 26 on Tim Kelly, and I think he is value there.
Apart from us wce, carlton are into him big time and expect they would use pick 30 on him.
He is also a main part with why wce traded next years first for those second rounders

It's earlier than I've heard of Kelly (at this stage), but that's not to say he couldn't or wouldn't be a suitable selection. I actually quite like him as a selection for West Coast.

I know its hard to predict but which players do you think will slide out to the 3rd/4th round that could potentially become the steals of the draft?

To give you a few names top of mind.

James Worpel should go around that range and is the first one that comes to mind. Charlie Ballard could push up more into the second round, but if he is there 3rd/4th round I like the value he represents.

Charlie Thompson and Cassidy Parish are two who are probably overlooked who I see strong value in late in the rookie draft.

After that, a lot of overagers and mature agers I see significant value in. Ben Paton as a defender is excellent as an overager. Liam Ryan of the mature agers is one I see also as underrated - despite kicking 73 goals in the WAFL this year.

Is Dow a good chance to land at Norths pick #4?

Dow may go to Brisbane at 1. If he doesn't, he may make it to pick 4.

Just curious who you might see being on the board still when Port enters the draft. I'd love to look at some talls maybe a ruckman and KPD.

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Port should have a chance at a KPD or ruckman. Oscar Clavarino and Sam Taylor are two good key defenders who may go somewhere around when Port enter the draft.

As a ruckman Jordan Sweet as a local overager may be there in the rookie draft. Lloyd Meek is another who should be there late as another overage ruckman.

There will still be some finds late/rookie this year. There is enough variety of opinion and some good players not rated as high as I'd argue they should be, for a few to be there when Port enter the draft.

 

[irish]

Hi KM I get the feeling pick 1 is coming down between LDU and Rayner , tough choice for the lions , if you were them which way would you go ?

Hearing Clark and Allan mentioned for later , but Clark would be unlikely , any likely lion picks you think may happen

Cheers

 

[Dormammu]

Hi KN, just wondering who you rate as the best dual-sided player in this draft? And not from combine testing perspective but real game time where they're actually under pressure?

 

[Ysaye]

Hi KN, just wondering who you rate as the best dual-sided player in this draft? And not from combine testing perspective but real game time where they're actually under pressure?

I'd guess Knightmare would say Hunter Clark.