Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[King Cripps]

SOS will only get credit when Carlton rise from the bottom four. Surely as Carlton fans, you guys expect results rather than microwins on moneyball trades?


Adelaide losing McGovern is about as relevant as Carlton losing Cam O'Shea. Neither were in their side's best 22 by the end of the season.


Really? Setterfield aside, you guys are no better than you were in 2018. Add to that, Silvagni overlooked a generational forward prospect with an engine as good as any under 18 I've seen since Nick Riewoldt, in favour of the third best midfielder in the draft.



I think Chris' reputation is far above clickbait stories. Shame on you.

Seriously your trolling of Carlton has become tiresome, give it up why don't you

 

[THE_GUN]

I go to alot of Carlton games and have done so for over 30 years due to a few good friends being supporters and i must say that they feel same as i do that this year a climb is expected and anything less that a top 12/13 finish is extremely disappointing but finals in 2020 is a MUST

Im not sure how the carlton supporters here feel but if in 2020 Carlton are not at least competing for finals and finish lower than 10/11 then the Silvagni / Bolton partnership has been a failure and would seriously need to look at replacing both.

 

[MITSUHIRATO]

I go to alot of Carlton games and have done so for over 30 years due to a few good friends being supporters and i must say that they feel same as i do that this year a climb is expected and anything less that a top 12/13 finish is extremely disappointing but finals in 2020 is a MUST

Im not sure how the carlton supporters here feel but if in 2020 Carlton are not at least competing for finals and finish lower than 10/11 then the Silvagni / Bolton partnership has been a failure and would seriously need to look at replacing both.

I think competing for finals and not finishing lower than 10/11 is a fair expectation.

If it doesn't happy for one reason or another (e.g. injuries - although with Andrew Russell on board that risk should be minimised), I don't think its a reflection of the Silvagni/Bolton partnership.

One of their jobs would be on the line though (I'd say Bolton).

 

[briztoon]

A 6.56 2km time trial the week before the draft says he's got work to do to be a full time AFL midfielder from the get go. Rayner played zero midfield this season.

Sorry Bicks this is incorrect. Rayner played limited midfield minutes. There were a few games towards the end of the season where Rayner was moved in to the midfield a little more often. He still has to make significant improvement before he plays more than spot minutes through the midfield though. Still the poorest runner at the club this preseason, but he does it with a smile.



You might be pleased to know that reports from the training ground is that Berry snr is the strongest runner, and reports are that no one passes him, though McCluggage sits in his slipstream.



I hope Section 5 does not mind me sharing his photo's from training on Monday.

 

[Bicks]

Sorry Bicks this is incorrect. Rayner played limited midfield minutes. There were a few games towards the end of the season where Rayner was moved in to the midfield a little more often. He still has to make significant improvement before he plays more than spot minutes through the midfield though. Still the poorest runner at the club this preseason, but he does it with a smile.



You might be pleased to know that reports from the training ground is that Berry snr is the strongest runner, and reports are that no one passes him, though McCluggage sits in his slipstream.



I hope Section 5 does not mind me sharing his photo's from training on Monday.

No surprises there with Berry senior always been an endurance beast and Berry junior is not too far behind him endurance wise, Tommy would gap him over 20 - 100m though Edit : Hughey's improved if he's keeping up with Jarrod over longer journeys, looks to have muscled up significantly too.

I'll take your word for it re Rayner, a watched quite a few Lions games this year with my interest in the local lads and can't say I saw Rayner featuring to much in the midfield the games I watched, certainly didn't start there, I do recollect seeing him at some stoppages in the forward lines.

 

[Section 5]

Sorry Bicks this is incorrect. Rayner played limited midfield minutes. There were a few games towards the end of the season where Rayner was moved in to the midfield a little more often. He still has to make significant improvement before he plays more than spot minutes through the midfield though. Still the poorest runner at the club this preseason, but he does it with a smile.



You might be pleased to know that reports from the training ground is that Berry snr is the strongest runner, and reports are that no one passes him, though McCluggage sits in his slipstream.



I hope Section 5 does not mind me sharing his photo's from training on Monday.

No problems. Share any of my photos

 

[briztoon]

No surprises there with Berry senior always been an endurance beast and Berry junior is not too far behind him endurance wise, Tommy would gap him over 20 - 100m though Edit : Hughey's improved if he's keeping up with Jarrod over longer journeys, looks to have muscled up significantly too.

I'll take your word for it re Rayner, a watched quite a few Lions games this year with my interest in the local lads and can't say I saw Rayner featuring to much in the midfield the games I watched, certainly didn't start there, I do recollect seeing him at some stoppages in the forward lines.

Did you watch much of Ely Smith this year.

 

[Bicks]

Did you watch much of Ely Smith this year.

Out of interest where do you have Bushies Eli Smith going, I've liked him when I've seen him play, good size , plenty of grunt and he's really starting to rack the numbers up.

This in D_P_S draft thread in June.

Several mentions..

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...-included-pg-37.1186073/page-20#post-56500548

 

[JasRulz63]

Sorry Bicks this is incorrect. Rayner played limited midfield minutes. There were a few games towards the end of the season where Rayner was moved in to the midfield a little more often. He still has to make significant improvement before he plays more than spot minutes through the midfield though. Still the poorest runner at the club this preseason, but he does it with a smile.

I'll take your word for it re Rayner, a watched quite a few Lions games this year with my interest in the local lads and can't say I saw Rayner featuring to much in the midfield the games I watched, certainly didn't start there, I do recollect seeing him at some stoppages in the forward lines.

Rayner found himself at 144 centre bounces which was just second behind Dow for 2017 draftees. (link)

 

[Dunny82]

Really liked the top end this year.

Lukosius is the best prospect from my time analysing the draft. Any year, he's my pick 1. Whatever pick I know I can get Lukosius, it's not a pick I would give up unless something radical was offered. Rankine would be in that top 5 conversation from my 10 years following the draft - he's another I'd be seriously uncomfortable offering up. Smith and Walsh that next group down and up there with the most elite of those top picks with Smith ahead - they're all in that Coniglio/Shiel etc company on quality and would require that kind or better currency to have gotten from me. Max King better than a lot of the recent early draft KPFs (better than McCartin/Wright at time of draft, loads better than Schache). Blakey, B.King and Caldwell that next group down and would all be in the top 5 mix for me in any given year on my draft board depending on the year. That's how special the very top end is. It's a year where I've never been as high on the very pointy end.

Saints this draft? Should have taken Smith for mine, but M.King is still good. Bytel a good mid but not sure of the fit. Like the mature age flavour. Wilkie I can see earning games at the highest frequency of the new ones.

As a club where St Kilda stand. Not want you want to hear, but in terms of young core groups, the bleakest in the competition. Max King can be a great i50 target. Gresham good. Coffield and Hunter can be long term pieces. Paton/Clavarino/Bytel may develop. Otherwise you've got those born 1995 and earlier where we pretty well know who they are. So it's probably not unfair to suggest St Kilda's drafting hasn't been great.

My projection of St Kilda in 2019 is 16th/17th, and more likely 16th behind Carlton. A lot of veteran leadership has been lost in a hurry which I feel hurt in 2018 and I'm not sure where the talent is coming from to elevate St Kilda ahead of anyone other than Gold Coast and maybe Carlton - though I'm leaning towards Carlton passing St Kilda.

I like the Ratten and O'Shaughnessy signing also. Good experience. They're gains.

Billings - and it's a similar story with a lot of Saints. He was a MUCH better kick as a junior. I'm not even talking in general play, but on set shots. I feel like kicking has been the club's major weaknesses with Membrey another top of mind to have regressed in front of goal after initial success. Billings I feel is AFL standard and a good piece, but he's not pushing to be a top 50 midfielder or one of the better forwards as he would reasonably have been expected to. He has work to go. Can get better, but hasn't come on as expected. Same issue with so many.

Dunstan hasn't improved as much as expected. He's much the same as he was year one. Acres has taken some positive strides, but he's one of few. Steele I like, same with Ross. But the midfield needs more pizzazz which wasn't found in Bytel who is more of the same type.

McCartin I didn't regard anywhere close to the best in his draft. I had him at 5 in my power rankings that year - behind Petracca/Brayshaw/Heeney/Moore. I feel he was taken too high - with his health concerns too great to take so early - though it's been all the concussions and injuries which have done the harm and preventing him from becoming anything relevant which is a shame. Goddard I liked that year, but I probably shouldn't have getting sucked too much into his athletic profile and genes. He's too shutdown first and not enough of an intercepter by position and a bad choice I've learnt from.

It feels like it's been a combination of poor talent ID, poor player development and somehow players becoming worse kicks in the St Kilda system.

The only positive from recent years I can award the Saints is their opposition talent ID - particularly with recycled players. Membrey and Robertson coming to mind. It's very rare those delisted types become anything and St Kilda have taken two of the better ones from recent years.

Thanks KM. Sounds like if you were to have held a pick in the top 6-8 yourself this year it would've taken something special to have made you take an offer that was put on the table. I think that's fair enough. I'm a big fan of the top end but also see some decent value in some of the players picked from the second round onwards.

I personally think the Saints will be battling it out for the spoon next year but we'll see how those thoughts pan out in 10 months time. Interesting point you make regarding Billings' kicking compared to his draft year. I wonder if that's a confidence or mental thing for him or a development issue at the club itself.

I hope that with the Suns taking 3 of the top end talent this year that the club now have the development structures in place to ensure these guys fulfill their potential. I'd hate to see them tease us with their potential and not quite make it to A grade status.

 

[TooBlue14]

Some perspective - 9/13 recruiting managers pick Walsh above everyone else. Knightmare is definitely in the minority. Carlton can’t afford to take a risk on another tall like lukosius and wait and he could very well be the next jack watts. Who knows.

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-22/walsh-lukosius-or-rankine-recruiters-have-their-say

 

[eDPS]

Some perspective - 9/13 recruiting managers pick Walsh above everyone else. Knightmare is definitely in the minority. Carlton can’t afford to take a risk on another tall like lukosius and wait and he could very well be the next jack watts. Who knows.

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-22/walsh-lukosius-or-rankine-recruiters-have-their-say

A few of those that went Walsh did it purely on how he is a safe bet with a few saying Rankine is the most talented but they would overall go with the leader/safe bet. The fact that those other players are even considered shows Walsh isn’t the absolute clear best player in the draft.

Walsh is the right pick for Carlton regardless which it all comes down to in the end with the number 1 pick.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks KM. Sounds like if you were to have held a pick in the top 6-8 yourself this year it would've taken something special to have made you take an offer that was put on the table. I think that's fair enough. I'm a big fan of the top end but also see some decent value in some of the players picked from the second round onwards.

I personally think the Saints will be battling it out for the spoon next year but we'll see how those thoughts pan out in 10 months time. Interesting point you make regarding Billings' kicking compared to his draft year. I wonder if that's a confidence or mental thing for him or a development issue at the club itself.

I hope that with the Suns taking 3 of the top end talent this year that the club now have the development structures in place to ensure these guys fulfill their potential. I'd hate to see them tease us with their potential and not quite make it to A grade status.

It would have taken a fair bit for me to make a trade certainly inside the top 7 - particularly with Smith available at 7 who is basically a pick one quality mid. Pick 8 I'd be more open to persuasion but even then bid on Blakey and take Caldwell and I'd feel like I've got a good one.

I hope Gold Coast have the development structures in place now also given my claims that they've got the two best in the pool. I just have my doubts. They don't have enough established players to follow and no evidence of young players developing since their inception other than a few odd examples who only had a few years of development.

I don't think the Saints will battle it out for the spoon. Gold Coast shouldn't have any competition.

 

[db26]

Knightmare great work as usual happy with tigers haul needed some inside grunt and a good runner in Turner.I think Ross may suprise. As your aware Stack training with tigers on footy abilities were do you rate him in talent in draft comparison ?.Had a great carnival and was good in wafl colts to.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare great work as usual happy with tigers haul needed some inside grunt and a good runner in Turner.I think Ross may suprise. As your aware Stack training with tigers on footy abilities were do you rate him in talent in draft comparison ?.Had a great carnival and was good in wafl colts to.

As per page one I rate Stack the 22nd best in the draft pool.

He has some Sam Petrevski-Seton to him - unlikely to be as good but a similarly talented midfielder.

You can find my bio of Stack in my October Power Rankings.

 

[Marcel Proust]

As per page one I rate Stack the 22nd best in the draft pool.

He has some Sam Petrevski-Seton to him - unlikely to be as good but a similarly talented midfielder.

You can find my bio of Stack in my October Power Rankings.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Some perspective - 9/13 recruiting managers pick Walsh above everyone else. Knightmare is definitely in the minority. Carlton can’t afford to take a risk on another tall like lukosius and wait and he could very well be the next jack watts. Who knows.

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-22/walsh-lukosius-or-rankine-recruiters-have-their-say

Could be the next wayne carey

Looks like an incredible talent

 

[McCraeBF]

Mark my words

Hamill will be a steel

 

[Soups]

Mark my words

Hamill will be a steel

Plays like Sidey?

 

[Knightmare]

Mark my words

Hamill will be a steel

He can run, intercept and take on the game. He's developable.

 

[captain cotch 9]

Hi Knightmare,

Have you seen Maurice Rioli Jnr play yet?
He will be in the 2020 draft.
He was named best on for St Mary's a couple of weeks ago.

 

[bl4ke]

Thoughts on Xaviar O'Neill KM?

 

[fridgeman]

Hey Knightmare now the draft is done and you have had a chance to look through your selections what are the key outtakes from this years draft?
Also how did you go with your mature age selections?
I know you don't pay much attention to the combine results but prefer game time when you rate players but how much do you think phantom draftees miss out because they do not have any real access to interview the players?
For example most people rated Stack and Taylor higher than they were actually taken or passed over, the other ones it would be good to get your comment on why they slid from where you and others rated them are Bailey Scott and Macfadyn
Thanks

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare,

Have you seen Maurice Rioli Jnr play yet?
He will be in the 2020 draft.
He was named best on for St Mary's a couple of weeks ago.

Have heard positive things but have not yet seen.

Hopefully will some time next season.

Thoughts on Xaviar O'Neill KM?

Went much earlier than expected.

Not all that high production, low impact, lacks that distinct point of difference. Not one that stands out. Would have been more appropriate for selection late/rookie.

A lot of Oakleigh Chargers went earlier than they should have this year. Quaynor/Rowbottom/O'Neill/Kelly/Jordon all should have gone 10+ picks later than they went for mine.

Podhajski who went undrafted from Calder I feel is better than all of them honestly.

Hey Knightmare now the draft is done and you have had a chance to look through your selections what are the key outtakes from this years draft?
Also how did you go with your mature age selections?
I know you don't pay much attention to the combine results but prefer game time when you rate players but how much do you think phantom draftees miss out because they do not have any real access to interview the players?
For example most people rated Stack and Taylor higher than they were actually taken or passed over, the other ones it would be good to get your comment on why they slid from where you and others rated them are Bailey Scott and Macfadyn
Thanks

Guys who missed out? Sydney Stack, Mitch Podhajski, Mitch Grigg, Mitch Maguire, Jye Bolton, Jon Marsh, Haiden Schloithe Marcus Lentini, Marlion Pickett and Michael Gibbons from my extended power rankings are all players I felt were more than good enough for AFL list positions. Stack is the only of those of draft age, Podhajski and Lentini overagers and the rest of those mature agers. I find with mature agers clubs have a blindspot towards those in their mid-late 20s particularly with all of those guys plug and play types who can fit straight into a senior side and play round one.

My other mature age ranked players were selected in: Collins, Hore, Corbett, Cavarra, Kreuger, Butts (overager), Wilkie and Burgess. Interesting with those, none of those are midfielders while of those I rate who didn't get picked up, the greater majority of those are midfielders. So it seems like clubs also like going to the state leagues to fill those other non midfield list needs. Though I'd be querying whether a Gold Coast have a single midfielder presently better than a Mitch Grigg, Jye Bolton or Haiden Schloithe.

With interviews, there is a bit more to it. Clubs don't just interview the prospects. The families, teachers. Other people who know them are also interviewed. And the interviews are a lot deeper than if I approached one of the prospects and started talking to them. Clubs also can have different takeaways from these interviews and feels for these prospects from one another, so there is a lot more to it still.

With Stack, it was known he had off-field issues without needing to interview him. He missed the first u18 champs game due to disciplinary reasons, but then came back for the other games and dominated.

With Taylor, he's one I didn't see dropping. I know talking to some people in the industry that he in their words is 'lazy' and hasn't improved his physical conditioning or athleticism as expected this season. So it's something I was aware of, but I didn't really see him dropping that much for it. And I suggest with Taylor he's one where a few clubs may have had him 2nd or 3rd on their draft board at a few choices through the 20s and 30s but just had one or two others they wanted more.

Bailey Scott is a worker and his drop had nothing to do with work ethic. Just a case of clubs liking other prospects more. I believe the same of McFadyen who I haven't heard any issues surrounding either. Though I tend as with Taylor to hear more about the Victorian prospects in terms of work ethic/personality and those kinds of things admittedly.

If I was to say 'this guy was the bargain of the draft.' Last year I said it was Brayden Crossley who I viewed as a first rounder. This year I'm saying McFadyen. It feels like clubs continue to underrate Div 2 talent. McFadyen is one of the best midfielders and best forwards in this draft. He can be a big time ball winning mid with his ground ball stuff among the best in the draft and being able to rest forward and provide a legit 190cm marking target is a great weapon to have.

 

[Crow till I die]

Hi Knightmare. Do you have any info on the crows rookie ruck pick up Kieran Strachan and whether if Sauce Jacobs goes down he could come in and do a decent job?