Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare. Do you have any info on the crows rookie ruck pick up Kieran Strachan and whether if Sauce Jacobs goes down he could come in and do a decent job?

Still a developing ruckman. Doesn't feel like he is AFL ready yet. Needs at least another year of development I would have thought to play at AFL level having done little in his four VFL games over the past two seasons either as a ruckman or key forward.

Reilly O'Brien should be comfortably ahead of Strachan in the depth charts.

The selection of Strachan is one of those cases of few ruckman outside the AFL being worthwhile.

 

[Crow till I die]

Still a developing ruckman. Doesn't feel like he is AFL ready yet. Needs at least another year of development I would have thought to play at AFL level having done little in his four VFL games over the past two seasons either as a ruckman or key forward.

Reilly O'Brien should be comfortably ahead of Strachan in the depth charts.

The selection of Strachan is one of those cases of few ruckman outside the AFL being worthwhile.

Thanks for that info Knightmare. hopefully ROB can stay healthy this year as he has had a wretched run with injury over the last few years

 

[Blue fish]

Hi Knightmare, how would you compare RCD to Cripps in his draft year?

 

[Browny123]

I don't see who they pass.

Who could they pass to get to 12th?



Lukosius fits on a wing on Carlton. He creates more space and better delivery into Carlton's other forwards rather than making the team feel too tall/unbalanced.

I wouldn't have traded Carlton's 2019 first round pick to need to take RCD. Just at pick 19 if I had it, RCD would have been my choice.



1. More blue chip guys is always good. The more the better. I also do feel the equation heavily involves bringing in the most talent, but talent that fits and compliments the talent already there - particularly during the trade/free agent period this is the way to go about things to maximise results. Depth is a complete waste of time. The best depth is in the form of projected future best 22 players coming through and pushing the established guys and making a selection dilemma. To find those latter half of best 22 types, the state leagues are substantially underutilised and are ideal compliments for your blue chip types and a route Carlton would be wise to explore with much greater frequency.

2. I haven't followed where people project Adelaide for 2019 but they're a 1-14 team (with that whole group wide open and no standouts such is the dynamic of the competition at the moment). This year they dropped off with the losses of Lever/Cameron hurting structurally and injuries hurting more than should have been the case. I happen to disagree on their midfield - I feel that's a real strong point. It's for mine one of the better 2-3 in the competition with only Collingwood and probably Geelong having better.

3. I feel Hannebery helps St Kilda and they've had their injuries this year. I don't feel they're rise, but they have a shot at being more competitive. Brisbane I feel will take another step forward - their young core is coming together and with the leadership of Hodge that group is fast-tracking in a hurry with their second half of the season suggesting they aren't far away from a top 8 berth. Only Gold Coast and maybe St Kilda I have lower than Carlton. Those other bottom sides I don't consider all that bad, with the competition 1-15 likely to be pretty even in 2019. Carlton will make up ground and likely improve by around 10%-15% on the ladder which is still a nice stride, but not enough to get Carlton all that far back into the game with regard to say top 8 contention.

If I'm guessing. Adelaide get pick 3 (sorry Saints fans - could go either way), Carlton get pick 10 from Adelaide - though it could be a lot worse. To put some hypothetical names to the picks. I might be able to get Thomas Green from GWS at 3 (who is a Cripps level stoppage beast) - and GWS aren't certain to match. Or if they do, Sam Flanders or Noah Anderson depending on availability with Matthew Rowell if things hold as they are probably going 1. I'd take those guys over say Stocker and a say Caleb Serong who could be a best available around that pick gained from Adelaide to put a name to a pick.
I really like that top 4 - not ordered and probably won't be the order in my power rankings next year as I don't want to give that away just yet - but any of Rowell/Green/Flanders/Anderson I'd place a very high value premium on in my own mind. Others may like Taheny/Stephens from SA or H.Young. But that top 4 of mine, I'd be incredible keen to get my hands on. Much more so than Stocker or anyone likely available around 10.



Walsh isn't a dud. He can play. No one will compare him to Fiora.

No exact comparison, but it's more like a Haselby/Pavlich situation to reference the '99 draft. I feel Walsh will have more lasting power than Haselby. But that's not far off the talent disparity I see.

Walsh may not be the best mid in the draft let alone the best pick while Lukosius can be that all time special kpp.

I rate O’Neill over green and Anderson

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare, how would you compare RCD to Cripps in his draft year?

There are similarities. Both have had their moments and some big games but lack consistency. Cripps some bigger games in WAFL Colts, RCD less midfield time in TAC Cup but when he has been there his influence has been on another level - perhaps higher than anyone else in the pool even which is what separates him from Cripps at same age/stage - influencing games in a way more similar to a Bontempelli as he has the explosiveness and skills.

I rate O’Neill over green and Anderson

Some may. O'Neill looked good during the U18 champs and has his tricks.

For me personally, I don't think they're in the same conversation.

Green and Anderson are two of the four I'm looking at next year as having the scope to be the best i the pool.

O'Neill is someone I see as around 10th on quality at the moment and someone who I may drop from there if others come good in 2019.

 

[bl4ke]

Went much earlier than expected.

Not all that high production, low impact, lacks that distinct point of difference. Not one that stands out. Would have been more appropriate for selection late/rookie.

A lot of Oakleigh Chargers went earlier than they should have this year. Quaynor/Rowbottom/O'Neill/Kelly/Jordon all should have gone 10+ picks later than they went for mine.

Podhajski who went undrafted from Oakleigh I feel is better than all of them honestly.

Appreciate your thoughts! Must admit I knew nothing about him when his named was called by us. Highlights look good, but that's what they're designed for. Watched the TAC Cup grand final and he seemed to me to spend a lot of it on the bench, are there questions over his tank? Looked like a smooth mover when he did get the ball though. In his first interview with the club he mentioned that he'd been cut from a few rep sides but apparently we've been eyeing him off for a while so hopefully he pulls through with the goods.

 

[curnow inferno]

hi KM, with the addition of walsh to carlton where do you rate him among the other up and comers at carlton aged under 25 in terms of how good they will become in the future? to me i am hoping he is right up there maybe something in order like curnow, cripps, walsh, weitering, dow, docherty, fisher, petrevski-seton, mckay, setterfield, marchbank, o'brien, plowman?

 

[Knightmare]

Appreciate your thoughts! Must admit I knew nothing about him when his named was called by us. Highlights look good, but that's what they're designed for. Watched the TAC Cup grand final and he seemed to me to spend a lot of it on the bench, are there questions over his tank? Looked like a smooth mover when he did get the ball though. In his first interview with the club he mentioned that he'd been cut from a few rep sides but apparently we've been eyeing him off for a while so hopefully he pulls through with the goods.

In 2017 the stats I used to get from Champion Data included minutes spend on the field of each player but it doesn't seem to be included in what I'm getting this year, so I can't fill you in on the minutes on/off.

Without being someone I've had on my watchlist during the year, O'Neill I haven't noticed on the bench beyond normal rotations an extreme amount more than the next player.

Endurance seems about average for a midfielder at this age/stage. Haven't noticed him struggling to cover the ground without his work rate being something I've credited him for in my notes.

Positive to hear he has persevered though and continued with his footy despite being cut from teams previously.

hi KM, with the addition of walsh to carlton where do you rate him among the other up and comers at carlton aged under 25 in terms of how good they will become in the future? to me i am hoping he is right up there maybe something in order like curnow, cripps, walsh, weitering, dow, docherty, fisher, petrevski-seton, mckay, setterfield, marchbank, o'brien, plowman?

If I'm to rate Carlton's younger players in terms of my perceived desirability of those under 25. And it's a good core those I consider worthwhile long term players: *leaving Docherty out because he is 25
--stars--
1. Cripps (best pure inside mid in the game)
2. Curnow (one of the best KPFs under 25)
3. Weitering (has disappointed the past two seasons but still for mine can become one of if not the best KPD in the game)
4. Walsh (should have a more immediate impact/production than Dow. Has a different game and won't be as strong of a contested baller but endurance/accumulation should be higher)
5. Dow (can become an exceptional mid)
6. Setterfield (if he overcomes injuries can become an exceptional mid)
--good pieces all teams should want--
7. SPS
8. H.McKay
9. Kennedy
10. Stocker
-- suitable for AFL play without being best 22 on every team--
11. Plowman
12. Marchbank
13. McGovern
14. Fisher
15. O'Brien
16. Williamson

Those under 25 not on this list weren't included because I don't view them as AFL standard or likely to become AFL standard.

That core of 16 + Docherty who after Cripps is that clear next best player and maybe Nic Newman who is still only mid career is the core group I'd be looking to build around. And if those 11-16 types from the above list can be improved upon while that best 22 is filled out, that's a bonus.

 

[M Malice]

In 2017 the stats I used to get from Champion Data included minutes spend on the field of each player but it doesn't seem to be included in what I'm getting this year, so I can't fill you in on the minutes on/off.

Without being someone I've had on my watchlist during the year, O'Neill I haven't noticed on the bench beyond normal rotations an extreme amount more than the next player.

Endurance seems about average for a midfielder at this age/stage. Haven't noticed him struggling to cover the ground without his work rate being something I've credited him for in my notes.

Positive to hear he has persevered though and continued with his footy despite being cut from teams previously.



If I'm to rate Carlton's younger players in terms of my perceived desirability of those under 25. And it's a good core those I consider worthwhile long term players: *leaving Docherty out because he is 25
--stars--
1. Cripps (best pure inside mid in the game)
2. Curnow (one of the best KPFs under 25)
3. Weitering (has disappointed the past two seasons but still for mine can become one of if not the best KPD in the game)
4. Walsh (should have a more immediate impact/production than Dow. Has a different game and won't be as strong of a contested baller but endurance/accumulation should be higher)
5. Dow (can become an exceptional mid)
6. Setterfield (if he overcomes injuries can become an exceptional mid)
--good pieces all teams should want--
7. SPS
8. H.McKay
9. Kennedy
10. Stocker
-- suitable for AFL play without being best 22 on every team--
11. Plowman
12. Marchbank
13. McGovern
14. Fisher
15. O'Brien
16. Williamson

Those under 25 not on this list weren't included because I don't view them as AFL standard or likely to become AFL standard.

That core of 16 + Docherty who after Cripps is that clear next best player and maybe Nic Newman who is still only mid career is the core group I'd be looking to build around. And if those 11-16 types from the above list can be improved upon while that best 22 is filled out, that's a bonus.

Hi KM, if you have time and the inclination I'd love a similar look at our Lions youngsters.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, if you have time and the inclination I'd love a similar look at our Lions youngsters.

--stars--
1. Andrews
2. Hipwood (improves every year but for mine would be even better as a key defender)
3. Rayner
4. McCluggage
5. Witherden
6. Cameron
7. J.Berry
--good pieces all teams should want/highly developable--
8. McFadyen (the bargain of the 2018 draft. As a midfielder or forward has the scope to move up a category)
9. Bailey (a good talent who should continue to get better)
10. E.Smith (a good midfielder who should come on)
11. Ballenden (another like Hipwood I feel as a key defender would be a lot better)
12. Taylor
--potentially developable--
13. Keays (hasn't come on as expected but based on junior performances still feel he has more than enough ability to come good with his play both as a mid and forward excellent and even as a junior AFL quality. Needs greater opportunity or an opportunity on another list)
14. Starcevich
15. T.Joyce
16. Wooller
17. T.Berry
18. Answerth
19. Allison (felt like he was delisted too early. His NEAFL play from what I've watched has been solid. Still for mine has scope to develop as a late grower and it's too early to write him off)

I'd look at that 12 as the core group to build around and hope some from the 13-19 group develop though they're all in the too early to tell basket but guys who I give a chance to develop.

As per my notes on Carlton's list. Those not included on this list from Brisbane in that u25 age group I don't rate unless there is someone I've completely forgotten.

 

[M Malice]

--stars--
1. Andrews
2. Hipwood (improves every year but for mine would be even better as a key defender)
3. Rayner
4. McCluggage
5. Witherden
6. Cameron
7. J.Berry
--good pieces all teams should want/highly developable--
8. McFadyen (the bargain of the 2018 draft. As a midfielder or forward has the scope to move up a category)
9. Bailey (a good talent who should continue to get better)
10. E.Smith (a good midfielder who should come on)
11. Ballenden (another like Hipwood I feel as a key defender would be a lot better)
12. Taylor
--potentially developable--
13. Keays (hasn't come on as expected but based on junior performances still feel he has more than enough ability to come good with his play both as a mid and forward excellent and even as a junior AFL quality. Needs greater opportunity or an opportunity on another list)
14. Starcevich
15. T.Joyce
16. Wooller
17. T.Berry
18. Answerth
19. Allison (felt like he was delisted too early. His NEAFL play from what I've watched has been solid. Still for mine has scope to develop as a late grower and it's too early to write him off)

I'd look at that 12 as the core group to build around and hope some from the 13-19 group develop though they're all in the too early to tell basket but guys who I give a chance to develop.

As per my notes on Carlton's list. Those not included on this list from Brisbane in that u25 age group I don't rate unless there is someone I've completely forgotten.

Thanks for the reply KM, I appreciate it.

There were a few under 25 who I thought you missed and deserved to be in your list eg. Darcy Gardiner, Tom Cutler and Oscar McInerney.

The other 2 who haven't really demonstrated much yet who I personally still have hope for are Rhys Mathieson and Daniel McStay.

 

[briztoon]

--stars--
1. Andrews
2. Hipwood (improves every year but for mine would be even better as a key defender)
3. Rayner
4. McCluggage
5. Witherden
6. Cameron
7. J.Berry
--good pieces all teams should want/highly developable--
8. McFadyen (the bargain of the 2018 draft. As a midfielder or forward has the scope to move up a category)
9. Bailey (a good talent who should continue to get better)
10. E.Smith (a good midfielder who should come on)
11. Ballenden (another like Hipwood I feel as a key defender would be a lot better)
12. Taylor
--potentially developable--
13. Keays (hasn't come on as expected but based on junior performances still feel he has more than enough ability to come good with his play both as a mid and forward excellent and even as a junior AFL quality. Needs greater opportunity or an opportunity on another list)
14. Starcevich
15. T.Joyce
16. Wooller
17. T.Berry
18. Answerth
19. Allison (felt like he was delisted too early. His NEAFL play from what I've watched has been solid. Still for mine has scope to develop as a late grower and it's too early to write him off)

I'd look at that 12 as the core group to build around and hope some from the 13-19 group develop though they're all in the too early to tell basket but guys who I give a chance to develop.

As per my notes on Carlton's list. Those not included on this list from Brisbane in that u25 age group I don't rate unless there is someone I've completely forgotten.

Thanks for the reply KM, I appreciate it.

There were a few under 25 who I thought you missed and deserved to be in your list eg. Darcy Gardiner, Tom Cutler and Oscar McInerney.

The other 2 who haven't really demonstrated much yet who I personally still have hope for are Rhys Mathieson and Daniel McStay.

Was going to say Darcy Gardiner and Big O were unlucky not to be mentioned.

 

[Islanddoggy]

Hi KM

With the dogs having one list space available who is out there that would be a good fit for the dogs?

 

[Knightmare]

Was going to say Darcy Gardiner and Big O were unlucky not to be mentioned.

Gardiner a possible and this was his best year. Something like Brisbane's Plowman equivalent but not quite as good. I'd probably prefer slightly better, but he's one where who is fine for AFL play and an able component in the back half.

McInerney is for mine ideally depth. I'd like to see him at more than one goal per game and finding more of the footy. Taking some contested grabs is the positive.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM

With the dogs having one list space available who is out there that would be a good fit for the dogs?

A Mitch Maguire or Haiden Schloithe as plug and play forwards who can push up through the midfield would be my recommendations. Both have had terrific seasons in the NEAFL and WAFL respectively.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for the reply KM, I appreciate it.

There were a few under 25 who I thought you missed and deserved to be in your list eg. Darcy Gardiner, Tom Cutler and Oscar McInerney.

The other 2 who haven't really demonstrated much yet who I personally still have hope for are Rhys Mathieson and Daniel McStay.

There are the likes of Lester/Robertson/Cox/Skinner even beyond those guys.

Gardiner is for mine the better of those. Mathieson early days I liked as a mid but hasn't come on.

At the end of the day they're all low level role players/depth so they're not players I'd be looking at as core pieces going forward with those from my original list those I'd be prioritising games to if performing/showing signs.

 

[jackess]

There are the likes of Lester/Robertson/Cox/Skinner even beyond those guys.

Gardiner is for mine the better of those. Mathieson early days I liked as a mid but hasn't come on.

At the end of the day they're all low level role players/depth so they're not players I'd be looking at as core pieces going forward with those from my original list those I'd be prioritising games to if performing/showing signs.

Must have missed Dizzy shutting down Buddy this year. It's taking him a while to win over a lot of Lions fans as well.

 

[gillo94]

There are the likes of Lester/Robertson/Cox/Skinner even beyond those guys.

Gardiner is for mine the better of those. Mathieson early days I liked as a mid but hasn't come on.

At the end of the day they're all low level role players/depth so they're not players I'd be looking at as core pieces going forward with those from my original list those I'd be prioritising games to if performing/showing signs.

Knightmare.

How do the King brothers compare to the McKay brothers? Both sets of twins over 200cm and both sets taken in the first round in their respected drafts.

Max King and Harry McKay both drafted as key forwards. Both have had interrupted starts to their football. If you were playing school football and had first pick, who would you take out of Max and Harry? and Why?

Ben King and Ben McKay both drafted as tall utilities. If you went to high school across the road which both Ben King and Ben McKay attend and had first pick in school football, who would you take? and Why?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare.

How do the King brothers compare to the McKay brothers? Both sets of twins over 200cm and both sets taken in the first round in their respected drafts.

Max King and Harry McKay both drafted as key forwards. Both have had interrupted starts to their football. If you were playing school football and had first pick, who would you take out of Max and Harry? and Why?

Ben King and Ben McKay both drafted as tall utilities. If you went to high school across the road which both Ben King and Ben McKay attend and had first pick in school football, who would you take? and Why?

The King's are much more advanced at the same age. They're roughly two years ahead of the McKay's in their development and standard of performance.

The McKay's in their draft years were fairly speculative from the perspective of - young (late year birthdays), have attributes but didn't have the performances on the board. The King's on the other hand had the attributes, but they have the performances on the board in a big way and have for more than a year but still with the continued growth.

Max King is the clear choice ahead of Harry McKay. Max King in a lot of years past would go pick 1. He's of that quality.

Ben King similarly is the clear choice over Ben McKay who isn't AFL standard yet. I also favour Ben King to Harry McKay - again with junior performances of a much higher standard and still projecting to have the better pro career whether used back or forward unless Gold Coast's player development fails to develop him to the standard that would be reasonably expected.

Getting into the nitty gritty of their games. The King's have the extra height, they're better at ground level, have the better mobility and also are the even more dominant marks though in the latter category Harry McKay and Ben King are comparable.

 

[Pykie]

The King's are much more advanced at the same age. They're roughly two years ahead of the McKay's in their development and standard of performance.

The McKay's in their draft years were fairly speculative from the perspective of - young (late year birthdays), have attributes but didn't have the performances on the board. The King's on the other hand had the attributes, but they have the performances on the board in a big way and have for more than a year but still with the continued growth.

Max King is the clear choice ahead of Harry McKay. Max King in a lot of years past would go pick 1. He's of that quality.

Ben King similarly is the clear choice over Ben McKay who isn't AFL standard yet. I also favour Ben King to Harry McKay - again with junior performances of a much higher standard and still projecting to have the better pro career whether used back or forward unless Gold Coast's player development fails to develop him to the standard that would be reasonably expected.

Getting into the nitty gritty of their games. The King's have the extra height, they're better at ground level, have the better mobility and also are the even more dominant marks though in the latter category Harry McKay and Ben King are comparable.

Yeah, that's wrong.

He'd be playing at a bunch of AFL clubs right now, Daw ranking as the 2nd best intercept marking key defender of 2018 kept him out. The kid is a physical beast and will play most of 2019, there's a chance he pushes Tarrant back to the 2nd forward given his size/speed of development, Shaun Higgins as early as Friday said on the radio that he could of played all of 2018, but the club held him back to give him another year in the VFL and a year on weights, Thompson a full year given his form etc. He averaged 15 touches, 11 marks (2.67 contested) as a CHB in the VFL in 2018. Pretty much every North players ranks him as North's best kid on it's list.

He just finished 6th in our club time trial and is weighing in at 106kg's. Both Ben and Harry are the next legitimate monster KPP's of the AFL, genetically they are just completely abnormal. The King's may have 2-3 cm's on them, but they don't have the genetics of the McKay boys.

Remembering the McKay's are still only 20 years old. Ben himself didn't start playing TAC Cup until around Rnd 7 of his top age year.


I agree with your sentiment in general, the Kings have been bluechip recruits for the last 5 years and both should end up better than the McKay boys, that's purely reflected in their draft rankings in what is a very strong draft. I think they are naturally better footballers, they read the play extremely quickly.


If you ask most North supporters who our most exciting prospect is, most will tell you Ben McKay. He's miles ahead of someone like Robbie Tarrant at the same age, he's a legitimate potential AA defender with his size, motor and intercept/contested marking ability.

 

[jackess]

Classic North post; has played 1 AFL game and is a potential All Australian....

 

[Pykie]

Classic North post; has played 1 AFL game and is a potential All Australian....

Classic uninformed response.

Research some other players in the league for once.

Yes I think he can be in the best 10-15% of KPD's in the league at some point in his career.


As people love to state in this thread "It's just an opinion"

 

[jackess]

Classic uninformed response.

Research some other players in the league for once.

Yes I think he can be in the best 10-15% of KPD's in the league at some point in his career.


As people love to state in this thread "It's just an opinion"

It's just an unnecessary way to pump up a player. We've got Jack Payne who was injured all year and played well against Buddy in the preseason before getting injured. We could say he's a potential All Australian but it means bugger all.

 

[Pykie]

It's just an unnecessary way to pump up a player. We've got Jack Payne who was injured all year and played well against Buddy in the preseason before getting injured. We could say he's a potential All Australian but it means bugger all.

Of course it means bugger all.

I'm not exactly going to start taking measurements for his jacket... It's not an earth shattering claim, there were 12 x AA key defenders on an AFL list in 2018.


It's my opinion and I'm basing it from seeing him week in week out dominate the VFL as a 19 year old, the fact he is a former 1st rnd draft pick in his own right (Not that that really means anything) the fact that Ben Brown acknowledges he's the toughest defender at the club to play on and the fact he's up there with Majak in terms of the best overall athlete at the club. I'm sure Carlton supporters appreciate how unique Harry is in that regard as well.

I was merely responding to "not AFL standard" which was an uninformed comment given how well he is going for a 20 year old.

 

[curnow inferno]

If I'm to rate Carlton's younger players in terms of my perceived desirability of those under 25. And it's a good core those I consider worthwhile long term players: *leaving Docherty out because he is 25
--stars--
1. Cripps (best pure inside mid in the game)
2. Curnow (one of the best KPFs under 25)
3. Weitering (has disappointed the past two seasons but still for mine can become one of if not the best KPD in the game)
4. Walsh (should have a more immediate impact/production than Dow. Has a different game and won't be as strong of a contested baller but endurance/accumulation should be higher)
5. Dow (can become an exceptional mid)
6. Setterfield (if he overcomes injuries can become an exceptional mid)
--good pieces all teams should want--
7. SPS
8. H.McKay
9. Kennedy
10. Stocker
-- suitable for AFL play without being best 22 on every team--
11. Plowman
12. Marchbank
13. McGovern
14. Fisher
15. O'Brien
16. Williamson

Those under 25 not on this list weren't included because I don't view them as AFL standard or likely to become AFL standard.

That core of 16 + Docherty who after Cripps is that clear next best player and maybe Nic Newman who is still only mid career is the core group I'd be looking to build around. And if those 11-16 types from the above list can be improved upon while that best 22 is filled out, that's a bonus.

Wow what a super detailed response much much appreciated!! The only thing i dont agree with is i think you are criminally underrating fisher but time will tell!

I know this is really pushing it but last question (as we are slightly veering off thread topic) but if you get a chance can you please rank JUST the stars section of both carlton and brisbane under 25s combined? As these two clubs seem to be the two who are at same stage of rebuilding.

So its out of Andrews, Hipwood, Rayner
4. McCluggage 5. Witherden 6. Cameron 7. J.Berry

And cripps, curnow, weitering, walsh, dow and setterfield.