Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Knightmare - a few whispers linking us to Rozee at our first pick. How much of a reach do you personally believe that would be, and what's holding him back from being worth that selection in your opinion?

I've heard some clubs like Rozee early. And he's got a lot of talent - skills/athleticism/brings the pressure.

Should he be an early pick? I know he has played forward a lot, but he hasn't found or won enough of the footy for me to feel top-5 enthused. Somewhere around 10 feels more appropriate with his talent more on parr with a Collier-Dawkins or Curtis Taylor than a Bailey Smith/Walsh/Rankine.

Have you heard any whispers about Fremantle? cheers cobba

Have heard interest in Max King and Ian Hill early.

Jason Carter is also of interest as an academy prospect and is a likely choice either late or as a rookie.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Collingwood father-son prospect Will Kelly: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...lingwood-magpies-set-land-rising-key-defender

 

[M Malice]

Hey Knightmare you selected Connor McFadyen early in the BF PD and I know you rate him highly but what sort of range are you expecting a bid to be made on him on draft night.

Have you seen much of another academy boy of ours Keidean Coleman and if so what do you think of him?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare you selected Connor McFadyen early in the BF PD and I know you rate him highly but what sort of range are you expecting a bid to be made on him on draft night.

Have you seen much of another academy boy of ours Keidean Coleman and if so what do you think of him?

15-35 at this stage is my best guess for when a bid will come for McFadyen. With good NEAFL form though his stocks may increase.

Coleman is one for consideration. Has some pace, one touch at ground level. Quiet in most of the u18 champs games though had his moments. Not sure how much I love him down back, I'm intrigued as a forward whether he would look better. I'd be tempted to rookie him and take that chance on him developing.

 

[Lach72]

At the time of his draft cohort I was a big fan of Cox.

I was amused by the knocks on him:
1. Not tall enough to be a power KPP.
2. Not nimble enough not an athlete.

People missed the most important bit he was a very smart and natural footballer, very good overhead mark.

Fremantle got excellent value for money where they took him.

I scratch my head with observers fasination with potential over current production. Good to be able to project but at the expense of current form is folly.

He's almost the complete opposite. Compensates height with ability to jump and great hands and I find him quite mobile

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

KM I am of the opinion that Carlton need as many top 20 picks as we can get this year.. even if that means trading away our 2019 1st.. With Carlton very likely to finish bottom 4 again next year who are the likely candidates for the top 4 in 2019?? For example would Freo's pick 7 this year be better than 2019 pick 4?

 

[Human Person]

Hey Knightmare, with Max King's acl, how likely is he to make improvements on he set shot kicking by next season?

 

[Magpiesweloveu]

Tarryn Thomas and Ian Hill for mine have played their best footy running out of the back half.

Xavier Duursma and Tom McKenzie late first - second round could be worth a look as rebounders who can also push through the midfield.

Quaynor and Khamis from the Collingwood and Western Bulldogs academies are handy as general defenders who can beat their opponents, intercept and rebound some. Martin Frederick with his pace from Port's academy can really generate drive with his run from defence. Thomas Matthews from Brisbane's Academy I've really liked with the way he intercepts and rebounds.

For some others more accessible to other clubs, Tom Sparrow could start as a general defender and become more a mid with time. He has all the attributes - ultra explosive, very strong and aggressive, good kick. Matthew McGannon with his ball use I like down back. Louis Miller as a medium back from WA is worth taking late.

To categorise the standouts:
Run: Frederick, Hill, T.Thomas (the latter two are up there with anyone for pace but could use it more, and I sense with a move back would show it more)
Aerial/intercept: Khamis, Matthews, Miller



I wasn't shocked Carlton took O'Brien. Perhaps not optimal being more an outside type but he has the skills and pace. He's a talented footballer. He's playing which is a good sign. As per my thoughts pre-draft, he'll need to develop the contested side of his game if he wants to become good. If he can do that, he could become something like a Mitch Duncan. For a more realistic projection - he probably becomes something like a Jared Polec. That's roughly going into last years draft what I thought and my I'm pretty unchanged on that. He's someone I see making the grade, but unless he really improves the contested side of his game, I see him being more a good rather than a great player.



I see Collins getting drafted. I've spoken about him a lot over the past couple of months as he's deserving of the praise he is getting. Third round onwards he is worth picking for mine. If he plays 20 games he probably gets 220 marks. He's playing incredible football. If you can afford him that freedom to intercept and play off his man at times as he is doing so well this year, he can find a niche at AFL level.

I have been reliably told by someone who works at one of the WA clubs that Ian Hill has done a Chad Wingard and wont be leaving WA or if drafted out of WA, will be returning as soon as contract finishes

 

[Joao]

I have been reliably told by someone who works at one of the WA clubs that Ian Hill has done a Chad Wingard and wont be leaving WA or if drafted out of WA, will be returning as soon as contract finishes

Well then. Let's hope we don't draft him then.

 

[Bicks]

He's almost the complete opposite. Compensates height with ability to jump and great hands and I find him quite mobile

Might be part of the trade if the Mitch McGovern to Freo rumour has any legs...

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Might be part of the trade if the Mitch McGovern to Freo rumour has any legs...

Keep your grubby mitts off our Cox

 

[briztoon]

KM I am of the opinion that Carlton need as many top 20 picks as we can get this year.. even if that means trading away our 2019 1st.. With Carlton very likely to finish bottom 4 again next year who are the likely candidates for the top 4 in 2019?? For example would Freo's pick 7 this year be better than 2019 pick 4?

I don't believe any current team with a top 10 pick would trade it for a 2019 first round pick from a likely bottom 5 club.

I've said on the Brisbane board that I would trade our 2019 first for a pick in the 11 to 15 range in this years draft.

The most likely clubs would be either Sydney or North, as they will lose their picks in matching early bids on their academy kids. But they would need something like an early second round pick back to help pay for their academy kid.

My trade would be:
Brisbane out (to North): 2018 second round pick and 2019 first round pick.
Brisbane in (from North): Norths 2018 first round pick and Norths 2019 first round pick.

Realistically North would only do this if Bailey Scott chose the Gold Coast and not North as a father son prospect. Otherwise North need all the points they can muster this year and next to pay for this years academy kids.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Keep your grubby mitts off our Cox

Did you realise what you said?

 

[Crowman32]

I know you really rate lukosious but I'm not sure he is worth 8,14& 20. That could be three potential stars you are giving up for one potential star. How many top 5 pick kpf's have gone on to be stars of late.

I remember watching jack watts dominate the u18s championships and look how he turned out. It would have been a massive mistake for a club to have traded three picks for him back then.

I know the crows will have to pay overs for pick 1 but hopefully they aren't stupid about it.

I think if the crows could find a top 5 pick and a solid player to trade to carlton that would be fair.

 

[Knightmare]

KM I am of the opinion that Carlton need as many top 20 picks as we can get this year.. even if that means trading away our 2019 1st.. With Carlton very likely to finish bottom 4 again next year who are the likely candidates for the top 4 in 2019?? For example would Freo's pick 7 this year be better than 2019 pick 4?

I disagree with this thought process if I'm in Carlton's position.

Carlton are poor at drafting talent and poor at developing young talent. Consider only nine players drafted from 2014 or earlier remain at the club.

Continuing to build through the draft with masses of picks doesn't develop a list. Look at Gold Coast, even with all the AFL's concessions. They're still terrible all these years later.

What continues not to be understood and I've spoken to a now former club list manager on this subject but the concept of veteran leadership being necessary to promote young player development was a completely foreign concept and it showed with the way he managed his clubs list.

You can look at GWS as one club. They had even greater concessions than Gold Coast. An incredible amount of first round picks. They only became a good team when they went out and secured veteran leaders. Look at the effect Luke Hodge is having on Brisbane. They're actually a competitive team now!

Irrespective of what Carlton do with that first pick, and same goes with Gold Coast who currently own pick two, both clubs need to go out and get veteran leaders who can promote young player development so that the constant rebuilding cycle we've long seen from Carlton, Brisbane in recent times being too young, Melbourne in recent times until Paul Roos came aboard, Richmond before they started to identify mature talent and talent from other lists - doesn't have to continue.

--
Getting back to answering your question though. For 2019 Sam Flanders, Thomas Green (GWS Academy), Noah Anderson and Matthew Rowell is a hastily put together top 4 for 2019. If pick 4 next year better than pick 7 this year? I don't think there will be a whole lot of difference, with the top 6/7 that sweet spot this year (maybe even top 8/9 depending on if any of the top talents slide). In saying that, I don't see a great deal of benefit in Carlton's situation being in that 6/7 range as one of the King boys may slide into that range rather than someone who fills a pressing list need. Maybe if Bailey Smith is still available that might be an attractive position to have a pick, but I think with more games he'll only rise up draft boards rather than fall. So in short, as with pick 1 this year, I wouldn't be getting ahead of myself and moving next year's first round pick this offseason unless it's in a swap for a Dylan Shiel or someone else of equivalent or higher quality and a second piece - noting that Carlton probably again next season are right down the bottom.

In trades of early picks, I'd be advising Carlton as a general thought process more-so to target established players rather than picks, or at least established players in addition to picks - understanding that the draft is a lottery, and the further down you are, the less likely you are to hit.

Hey KM, with Max King's acl, how likely is he to make improvements on he set shot kicking by next season?

I wouldn't expect much improvement is likely by next season if any.

He should probably spend next year developing in the reserves for whichever club he ends up with, with ACL's even after that 12 months out really needing a further 12 months on top of that for players to hit their stride and get back to who they were.

Player develop is typically a slow process and with KPPs it's a several year process. And assuming players will improve in something they're not strong in is dangerous because more often than not, what they're weak at as juniors doesn't become a strength.

It's a maybe that King improves his kicking at some point.

You have to draft players on who they are and if you're not ok with who they are and what they can/can't do against junior competition, you probably shouldn't be drafting them.

I have been reliably told by someone who works at one of the WA clubs that Ian Hill has done a Chad Wingard and wont be leaving WA or if drafted out of WA, will be returning as soon as contract finishes

It will come through during the clubs interview process I'm sure.

I know you really rate lukosious but I'm not sure he is worth 8,14& 20. That could be three potential stars you are giving up for one potential star. How many top 5 pick kpf's have gone on to be stars of late.

I remember watching jack watts dominate the u18s championships and look how he turned out. It would have been a massive mistake for a club to have traded three picks for him back then.

I know the crows will have to pay overs for pick 1 but hopefully they aren't stupid about it.

I think if the crows could find a top 5 pick and a solid player to trade to carlton that would be fair.

I'd wager Lukosius is worth more than picks 8,14 and 20 and if pick 1 is traded for that combination of picks that Carlton would come out the loser in the deal.

What if all three choices are misses as per 2008?

For some history/discussion around the last 10 years:

Pick 8s:
Ty Vickery
John Butcher
Dyson Heppell
Billy Longer
Sam Mayes
Luke McDonald (F/S)
Peter Wright
Callum Ah Chee
Griffin Logue
Nick Coffield
*Heppell and McDonald are the only two clear best 22 players on any team.

Pick 14s:
Ayce Cordy (F/S)
Lewis Jetta
Brodie Smith
Devon Smith
Aidan Corr
Cam McCarthy
Jake Lever
Eric Hipwood
Harry Perryman (Academy)
Matthew Ling
*Lever, Hipwood, B.Smith and D.Smith are the clear best 22 on any team players.

Pick 20s:
Tom Swift
Nat Fyfe
Jayden Pitt
Hayden Crozier
Tim Broomhead
Jack Leslie
Jayden Laverde
Brayden Fiorini
Isaac Cumming
Callum Coleman-Jones
*Only Fyfe would be clear best 22 on any team.

Of those 30 players, that's only 7 guys who any team would view as clear best 22 players today. Sure, a few others can develop and boost that list to 8/9/10. That's still on average one clear any team best 22 type, and going through the other names you can get one other potentially serviceable player and one who doesn't make the grade.

Add onto this rough feel a Carlton team who are historically poor drafting talent and lack the veteran leadership to help their youth develop and a playing list that aren't buying in? And the odds of getting that high level player from one of those picks drops considerably when contrasting that to the odds of an Adelaide by contrast who historically have been one of the best performing teams through the draft over the past 10 years.

With the knowledge that Lukosius has the scope to be an all-time special player, is the best potential number one choice I've seen during my time following the draft, and looking back at the names before him, he may well be the best number one selection ever. I'm rolling with Lukosius and I'm going fishing for some veteran leaders who buy into the coaches message and help direct the young players out on the field, show them the example on the training track and in the weights room and help them in their development. That's how Carlton can start to develop a winning list.

To be clear. Jack Lukosius isn't Jack Watts. He's more like Nick Riewoldt with the best kick/vision from a standing start in the draft. He has the performances behind him against SANFL League competition. The transition to playing at AFL level shouldn't trouble Lukosius.

 

[mrb1]

KM I agree with you on the Carlton situation. We need to keep pick 1. It gives us a better chance of getting a quality young player in Lukosius, Walsh or Rankine. Either player will be brilliant for us.

The last time we traded down we gave up pick 7 for Jaksch, Whiley and pick 19 (Boekhurst) while pick 7 eventually was Ahern with Wright and Lever still on the table. I never want to see my club doing that again.

When we trade up we get Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow.

Getting a Luke Hodge type would be great for our club to provide the leadership we sadly lack. Maybe Jared McVeigh or Brendon Goddard might be suitable.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Knightmare - a few whispers linking us to Rozee at our first pick. How much of a reach do you personally believe that would be, and what's holding him back from being worth that selection in your opinion?

Where have you heard this?

 

[Human Person]

I disagree with this thought process if I'm in Carlton's position.

Carlton are poor at drafting talent and poor at developing young talent. Consider only nine players drafted from 2014 or earlier remain at the club.

Continuing to build through the draft with masses of picks doesn't develop a list. Look at Gold Coast, even with all the AFL's concessions. They're still terrible all these years later.

What continues not to be understood and I've spoken to a now former club on this subject but the concept of veteran leadership being necessary to promote young player development was a completely foreign concept and it showed with the way he managed his clubs list.

You can look at GWS as one club. They had even greater concessions than Gold Coast. An incredible amount of first round picks. They only became a good team when they went out and secured veteran leaders. Look at the effect Luke Hodge is having on Brisbane. They're actually a competitive team now!

Irrespective of what Carlton do with that first pick, and same goes with Gold Coast who currently own pick two, both clubs need to go out and get veteran leaders who can promote young player development so that the constant rebuilding cycle we've long seen from Carlton, Brisbane in recent times being too young, Melbourne in recent times until Paul Roos came aboard, Richmond before they started to identify mature talent and talent from other lists - doesn't have to continue.

--
Getting back to answering your question though. For 2019 Sam Flanders, Thomas Green (GWS Academy), Noah Anderson and Matthew Rowell is a hastily put together top 4 for 2019. If pick 4 next year better than pick 7 this year? I don't think there will be a whole lot of difference, with the top 6/7 that sweet spot this year (maybe even top 8/9 depending on if any of the top talents slide). In saying that, I don't see a great deal of benefit in Carlton's situation being in that 6/7 range as one of the King boys may slide into that range rather than someone who fills a pressing list need. Maybe if Bailey Smith is still available that might be an attractive position to have a pick, but I think with more games he'll only rise up draft boards rather than fall. So in short, as with pick 1 this year, I wouldn't be getting ahead of myself and moving next year's first round pick this offseason unless it's in a swap for a Dylan Shiel or someone else of equivalent or higher quality and a second piece - noting that Carlton probably again next season are right down the bottom.

In trades of early picks, I'd be advising Carlton as a general thought process more-so to target established players rather than picks, or at least established players in addition to picks - understanding that the draft is a lottery, and the further down you are, the less likely you are to hit.



I wouldn't expect much improvement is likely by next season if any.

He should probably spend next year developing in the reserves for whichever club he ends up with, with ACL's even after that 12 months out really needing a further 12 months on top of that for players to hit their stride and get back to who they were.

Player develop is typically a slow process and with KPPs it's a several year process. And assuming players will improve in something they're not strong in is dangerous because more often than not, what they're weak at as juniors doesn't become a strength.

It's a maybe that King improves his kicking at some point.

You have to draft players on who they are and if you're not ok with who they are and what they can/can't do against junior competition, you probably shouldn't be drafting them.



It will come through during the clubs interview process I'm sure.



I'd wager Lukosius is worth more than picks 8,14 and 20 and if pick 1 is traded for that combination of picks that Carlton would come out the loser in the deal.

What if all three choices are misses as per 2008?

For some history/discussion around the last 10 years:

Pick 8s:
Ty Vickery
John Butcher
Dyson Heppell
Billy Longer
Sam Mayes
Luke McDonald (F/S)
Peter Wright
Callum Ah Chee
Griffin Logue
Nick Coffield
*Heppell and McDonald are the only two clear best 22 players on any team.

Pick 14s:
Ayce Cordy (F/S)
Lewis Jetta
Brodie Smith
Devon Smith
Aidan Corr
Cam McCarthy
Jake Lever
Eric Hipwood
Harry Perryman (Academy)
Matthew Ling
*Lever, Hipwood, B.Smith and D.Smith are the clear best 22 on any team players.

Pick 20s:
Tom Swift
Nat Fyfe
Jayden Pitt
Hayden Crozier
Tim Broomhead
Jack Leslie
Jayden Laverde
Brayden Fiorini
Isaac Cumming
Callum Coleman-Jones
*Only Fyfe would be clear best 22 on any team.

Of those 30 players, that's only 7 guys who any team would view as clear best 22 players today. Sure, a few others can develop and boost that list to 8/9/10. That's still on average one clear any team best 22 type, and going through the other names you can get one other potentially serviceable player and one who doesn't make the grade.

Add onto this rough feel a Carlton team who are historically poor drafting talent and lack the veteran leadership to help their youth develop and a playing list that aren't buying in? And the odds of getting that high level player from one of those picks drops considerably when contrasting that to the odds of an Adelaide by contrast who historically have been one of the best performing teams through the draft over the past 10 years.

With the knowledge that Lukosius has the scope to be an all-time special player, is the best potential number one choice I've seen during my time following the draft, and looking back at the names before him, he may well be the best number one selection ever. I'm rolling with Lukosius and I'm going fishing for some veteran leaders who buy into the coaches message and help direct the young players out on the field, show them the example on the training track and in the weights room and help them in their development. That's how Carlton can start to develop a winning list.

To be clear. Jack Lukosius isn't Jack Watts. He's more like Nick Riewoldt with the best kick/vision from a standing start in the draft. He has the performances behind him against SANFL League competition. The transition to playing at AFL level shouldn't trouble Lukosius.

Thanks for the reply km, Appreciated.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

interesting perspective and you have almost turned me to taking Lukosius with pick 1. My next thought is that if we take Lukocious we should trade Harry McKay and use what we get for Harry to draft or trade for a midfielder which is our most pressing need. What do you think would be fair value for McKay?

 

[PMBangers]

interesting perspective and you have almost turned me to taking Lukosius with pick 1. My next thought is that if we take Lukocious we should trade Harry McKay and use what we get for Harry to draft or trade for a midfielder which is our most pressing need. What do you think would be fair value for McKay?

2nd round + 4th round for Mckay and a 5th round, maybe Carlton throw in a 6th as well if it's a team that'll need points to match bids, like a Collingwood for example

 

[Lach72]

Might be part of the trade if the Mitch McGovern to Freo rumour has any legs...

Looks like Mitch is staying then

 

[bigdog43]

I disagree with this thought process if I'm in Carlton's position.

Carlton are poor at drafting talent and poor at developing young talent. Consider only nine players drafted from 2014 or earlier remain at the club.
.

Anything prior to 2014 for us is a wash. Completely new recruiting department who have been as good as anyone since 2015. Issue is player development, not drafting it.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

2nd round + 4th round for Mckay and a 5th round, maybe Carlton throw in a 6th as well if it's a team that'll need points to match bids, like a Collingwood for example

Points stop after the 4th round, 5ths and 6ths won't help a team that needs points.

 

[Knightmare]

KM I agree with you on the Carlton situation. We need to keep pick 1. It gives us a better chance of getting a quality young player in Lukosius, Walsh or Rankine. Either player will be brilliant for us.

The last time we traded down we gave up pick 7 for Jaksch, Whiley and pick 19 (Boekhurst) while pick 7 eventually was Ahern with Wright and Lever still on the table. I never want to see my club doing that again.

When we trade up we get Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow.

Getting a Luke Hodge type would be great for our club to provide the leadership we sadly lack. Maybe Jared McVeigh or Brendon Goddard might be suitable.

Trading down conceptually I'm fine with if the player you want is available later, just trading this pick one down this year I'm obviously against holding Lukosius in such high regard.

Any veteran who is willing to come in and lead I consider a positive. Travis Boak if he can get pried free for Port Adelaide, A few of those would do Carlton the world of good.

interesting perspective and you have almost turned me to taking Lukosius with pick 1. My next thought is that if we take Lukocious we should trade Harry McKay and use what we get for Harry to draft or trade for a midfielder which is our most pressing need. What do you think would be fair value for McKay?

Securing Lukosius doesn't necessarily mean you have to cut down your KPP stocks because you can stick him on a wing and he'll be your Richo on the wing and you won't lose any run/mobility at the position. It just gives you that flexibility to move a McKay for someone who fills a more pressing need.

Moving McKay on in the scenario you go Lukosius at pick 1 I'd consider conditional on the return being solid. If McKay = a top 20 pick or an established player. I'd probably do the deal with the top 20 looking pretty good this year. If he doesn't attract that currency, and he probably doesn't, then he can be held.

I'd be looking personally to build those KPP stocks around Lukosius, Curnow and Weitering. Adding a further key forward to that group doesn't make Carlton too tall. Then a couple of key defenders can be paired with Weitering with one of those able to play tall/small. Plowman is adequate and could be that 3rd tall back who can play tall/small, maybe Marchbank competes with him for that, but I'd say another key defender of high quality would complete that group, though there is still plenty of time.

Carlton certainly have a lot of KPPs, but I'd say maybe not this offseason but probably the 2019 offseason there will have to be a fairly major cull of those 'others.' If you want to beat the curve and get some currency for some of them, maybe as per your thought process with McKay, if you can get suitable offers, it's worth consideration.

Anything prior to 2014 for us is a wash. Completely new recruiting department who have been as good as anyone since 2015. Issue is player development, not drafting it.

2016 has been Carlton's better haul since, and I'm not going to take anything away from the Dow choice either last year, but I still need convincing that Carlton's new recruiting department are all that strong.

Player development is the big one though and is always the hardest for any low finisher, particularly a perennial low finisher to get right. A club can pick the best guy in the draft, but if the player development isn't there - those drafted later to better teams can develop past them. We've seen it with Murphy, Gibbs and Kreuzer to use Carlton as an example. Melbourne with Watts/Scully. Gold Coast with Swallow. If you don't have the veteran leadership around those guys, that quality coaching group and that club culture. They're not going to become those best in the competition types going into the draft you probably expect them to develop into.

 

[Bicks]

Izak Rankine named on the HBF for West Adelaide, Jack Lukosius on the wing for the Eagles, Connor Rozee on the HFF for North Adelaide, Jez McLennan in for his 1st SANFL game in the Back Pocket for Centrals, Jackson Hately on the Int Bench for Centrals and Boyd Woodcock in for his 1st SANFL game for North Adelaide on the Int Bench. Luke Valente named in the U18's for Norwood.