Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Wild Bill]

It's not the 90s. Sub 200cm ruckmen today are no longer something to be coveted.

Jackson isn't dominant like Grundy. I'm not even sure if he is a ruckman at AFL level. I'd really like him as a sub 200cm ruckman to have a second position and maybe be more a relieving ruckman if anything.



Shifter knows their games, knows their histories and makes it to games each week.

I'd just caution him on his optimism around Jackson in this particular case.



Harry Jones showed glimpses during the Under-18 Championships and I'd agree to the extent where I feel he looks draftable. I'd just say he's more appropriate for selection mid or late draft depending on how much improvement he shows between now and seasons end. He is very physically underdeveloped but a strong mark who could go on a similar developmental journey to Nick Larkey if you want a realistic comparison.

Jones showed enough glimpses to suggest he'd be a chance for a very late pick/rookie spot.....Anything more than that would be a surprise to me.

Cal Twomey just listed Jones at pick 23 in his phantom draft today.

 

[FAITH]

Cal Twomey's 2019 Phantom Form Guide: Post U18 Champs

AFL.com.au's draft guru ranks the young talent in the wake of the U18 Champs

www.afl.com.au

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Cal Twomey just listed Jones at pick 23 in his phantom draft today.

Not even a phantom draft.

More his draft rankings.

 

[Wild Bill]

Not even a phantom draft.

More his draft rankings.

Ok - I thinking you're splitting hairs.

But if it helps - Twomey's phantom form guide - not to be confused with Twomey's phantom draft - has Jones at 23.

 

[kannonfodder]

Harry Jones just got a huge wrap in the herald sun - likened him to Nick Riewoldt. Top 20 not out of the equation.

Wild Billy Boy,What’s your take on young Harry ??

 

[briztoon]

Ok - I thinking you're splitting hairs.

But if it helps - Twomey's phantom form guide - not to be confused with Twomey's phantom draft - has Jones at 23.

Not really. In past years Twomey has gone out of his way to explain the difference between the two, and that usually is Phantom Form Guide bears little resemblance to his Phantom Draft. And even less resemblance to his final Phantom Draft which he bases on what rumours he's hearing from recruiters.

 

[Frank Gallagher]

When the name Godfrey is mentioned, are you talking former Demon player Simon Godfrey or the one with the surname Okerenyang?

Okerenyang, Wagga boy who's in either the Swans or the Giants academy, we do the athletics circuit with our boy so we've seen a bit of him, normally I'd advise talented kids to pursue football (if asked) but this kid is that good he could go all the way in athletics, same for Jack Boulton but I don't think he has the scope of Godfrey in athletics, I'd love to see them go head to head though, would be one hell of a race, think Jack might be an age group lower though, pretty sure both have won national titles, Godfrey is down to mid 10s now (just checked), very similar gait to Carl Lewis.

Off topic I know but another one to look out for is Josh Tweedale, national high jump champion and a very good footballer, my son trained with him (high jump) last year, think he's bottom age u16 ATM.

 

[Knightmare]

Cal Twomey just listed Jones at pick 23 in his phantom draft today.

Earlier than I'd rate Jones being a skinny project player. But we're all going to have different draft boards.

In you alerting me to his ratings and checking them just now, the one I find most surprising in Serong at 3. For those who watched his championships while consistent and good through the midfield, a threat forward of centre etc and having a lot of good attributes, his kicking worried me and left me very much underwhelmed. So often he just didn't place his kicks nearly reliable enough for targets to get on the end of. I'm still weighing whether he should/shouldn't be in my top 10.

Also it seems a few rate him there. But Dylan Stephens is another where I'm weighing whether he should be inside my top 20. Cal and a few others have him in their top 10s. I see him as Ben Johnson. Can only kick on the left side. Light bodied and not the contested ball winner or stoppage player I hoped, feeling very outside or even as damaging or reliable by foot as I hoped. High work rate and moves well. But there are a number who have passed him on my board and he's not longer inside my top 3 SA prospects.

A lot of other differences in draft positions beyond that. But they're the two particularly because they're inside his top 10 I personally query if I'm to contrast it to what will be my July rankings which will be on ESPN hopefully Monday.

 

[weltschmerz]

Rowell seems to have a lot of similarities to Walsh. Is there anyone in contention that you think is more like Rankine, with that x-factor and ability to blow games open, but maybe not that same solid consistency?

 

[FAITH]

Serong wont be top 10 imo.

 

[Knightmare]

Rowell seems to have a lot of similarities to Walsh. Is there anyone in contention that you think is more like Rankine, with that x-factor and ability to blow games open, but maybe not that same consistency?

Anderson blows games open with consistency.

Kemp can inconsistently, but has big moments and at big stages of game.

Ash really breaks games open with his run and then has the kicking/vision to go with it.

Jeremy Sharp. Really half of that WA side I can make cases for as having major x-factor.

Some nice forwards on the Allies (Oea/Rosas/Gore) + Weightman from VIC.

There are unbelievable numbers of x-factor types this year. More than any draft we've had outright.

 

[Ducky Tie]

Knightmare I’ve got around to watching 3 and a quarter of Vic Country’s games and watched the obvious names closely. Serong kicked the ball pretty poorly throughout the games I found. The commentators would label him a great kick every time he got it but I found him to miss way too many targets when under no pressure. Flanders by contrast I found to be a very composed and accurate kick. I’m not sure if this goes against the grain of popular opinion but three games is more than just a couple of mis kicks. Interested in your thoughts.

 

[Wild Bill]

Not really. In past years Twomey has gone out of his way to explain the difference between the two, and that usually is Phantom Form Guide bears little resemblance to his Phantom Draft. And even less resemblance to his final Phantom Draft which he bases on what rumours he's hearing from recruiters.

Last year was very similar - of his top 20 in July - 16 were in his final top 20 November phantom draft.

2017 was the same with 16 of the 20 making both his top 20.

If he was picking the Nov draft factoring in F&S selections then its closer again.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare I’ve got around to watching 3 and a quarter of Vic Country’s games and watched the obvious names closely. Serong kicked the ball pretty poorly throughout the games I found. The commentators would label him a great kick every time he got it but I found him to miss way too many targets when under no pressure. Flanders by contrast I found to be a very composed and accurate kick. I’m not sure if this goes against the grain of popular opinion but three games is more than just a couple of mis kicks. Interested in your thoughts.

Your observations mirror my own here.

And that's the key with assessing junior talent. Make your own observations. Don't follow the heard.

That's why I intentionally sit away from recruiters at games. I don't want to be influences by what they're seeing. I want to see the game with a different set of eyes which gives me the greatest chance to spot out a talent no one else is seeing or rating as highly as they should, or alternatively not overrating players as clubs will with some.

If someone has an opinion on talent they share with me and it differs to your own. I critically analyse it and see if there is truth or to what extent there is truth behind their claim.

Serong is one of those cases and there are many I put in a similar boat where his kicking placement was consistently poor. Under pressure or in space, he wasn't hitting targets or placing it out in front of them with good enough placement to be marked. It proved a glaring weakness of his throughout the series in what otherwise has been an excellent carnival that he showed up for in a big way.

Flanders I have in the good kick category. Not elite, but good finding his targets both in space and under pressure. For mine he's the better prospect of the two.

 

[FAITH]

i don't trust Ash when the going gets tough, reminds me of Shaun Atley as a kid.

out of the VC boys i like Kemp>Young>Flanders>Ash>Serong

 

[Knightmare]

i don't trust Ash when the going gets tough, reminds me of Shaun Atley as a kid.

out of the VC boys i like Kemp>Young>Flanders>Ash>Serong

Atley had the speed and I liked him as a junior (thinking he would become a ball winning mid who could explode from stoppages - not that that ever eventuated) but I have Ash in an entirely different category. He doesn't have the array of tricks of Ash. Doesn't move like him - agility/evasion/composure in addition to the speed making him even more dangerous. Doesn't intercept like him. And is nothing close to the vision or kick Ash is. Nor the hurt factor.

Ash I favour to Young and Flanders and he's neck and neck with Kemp for mine.

 

[Bicks]

Anderson blows games open with consistency.

Kemp can inconsistently, but has big moments and at big stages of game.

Ash really breaks games open with his run and then has the kicking/vision to go with it.

Jeremy Sharp. Really half of that WA side I can make cases for as having major x-factor.

Some nice forwards on the Allies (Oea/Rosas/Gore) + Weightman from VIC.

There are unbelievable numbers of x-factor types this year. More than any draft we've had outright.

Liam Henry would be top of my list.

 

[Blood red]

KM. Are the days of the tagger gone?
Or do you see value in a player who could shut Anderson, Rowell or even Green down, and still win some hard possessions?
Or is offense the only way to view young players?

 

[Knightmare]

Liam Henry would be top of my list.

No question. Henry and about 10 other WA boys. An unbelievable amount of talent on that list. So many guys who just get the ball moving in a hurry.

Thorne, Anderson, Clarke, Taylor, Bennell to name a few more top of mind.

KM. Are the days of the tagger gone?
Or do you see value in a player who could shut Anderson, Rowell or even Green down, and still win some hard possessions?
Or is offense the only way to view young players?

With taggers I feel the key is that you're winning as much of the ball and having as much of an impact as your opponent. If you can do that, play that role and you're helping your team win.

If you've got an opponent who normally gets 30d, 2g, and only gets 20d and 1g, but you only get 10d yourself and have no impact, I'm not personally taking that. I don't want to be losing a positional battle so comprehensively. I'd rater let the guy go 30 and 2 against me and have my midfielder get more comparable numbers and have a more comparable impact.

My hope is the pure stopper is dead. But I don't feel tagging is dead, conditional on you winning enough of it yourself and doing some damage offensively at times. It's more a role I'm seeing as evolved into more of a still 90% close checking role but with some balance of ball winning and pushing forward to provide an option to keep the opponent accountable and thinking.

 

[FAITH]

Atley had the speed and I liked him as a junior (thinking he would become a ball winning mid who could explode from stoppages - not that that ever eventuated) but I have Ash in an entirely different category. He doesn't have the array of tricks of Ash. Doesn't move like him - agility/evasion/composure in addition to the speed making him even more dangerous. Doesn't intercept like him. And is nothing close to the vision or kick Ash is. Nor the hurt factor.

Ash I favour to Young and Flanders and he's neck and neck with Kemp for mine.

You don't think Ash tends to spray the ball and make silly decisions when a little heat is put on him?

 

[Bicks]

You don't think Ash tends to spray the ball and make silly decisions when a little heat is put on him?

You sure the player you were watching was actually #12 Lachlan Ash because he does neither? He's an absolute

 

[Blood red]

No question. Henry and about 10 other WA boys. An unbelievable amount of talent on that list. So many guys who just get the ball moving in a hurry.

Thorne, Anderson, Clarke, Taylor, Bennell to name a few more top of mind.



With taggers I feel the key is that you're winning as much of the ball and having as much of an impact as your opponent. If you can do that, play that role and you're helping your team win.

If you've got an opponent who normally gets 30d, 2g, and only gets 20d and 1g, but you only get 10d yourself and have no impact, I'm not personally taking that. I don't want to be losing a positional battle so comprehensively. I'd rater let the guy go 30 and 2 against me and have my midfielder get more comparable numbers and have a more comparable impact.

My hope is the pure stopper is dead. But I don't feel tagging is dead, conditional on you winning enough of it yourself and doing some damage offensively at times. It's more a role I'm seeing as evolved into more of a still 90% close checking role but with some balance of ball winning and pushing forward to provide an option to keep the opponent accountable and thinking.

I agree.
But it seems that it's a rarity in the championships because players are living and dieing by possession stats.
Some players are being labeled as elite due to pure numbers without even looking at efficiency.

 

[jjami15]

Not really. In past years Twomey has gone out of his way to explain the difference between the two, and that usually is Phantom Form Guide bears little resemblance to his Phantom Draft. And even less resemblance to his final Phantom Draft which he bases on what rumours he's hearing from recruiters.

Which in all fairness he does the day before as well.

 

[Knightmare]

You don't think Ash tends to spray the ball and make silly decisions when a little heat is put on him?

Not at a frequency that has me concerned when pressured.

He's relatively a risk taker. Will look into the corridor and look for the most damaging option. Can try to do too much at times, but still often pulls off what he intends hitting meaningful options in the corridor or up the field.

When pressured perhaps he could play it safer than he sometimes does, or sometimes he can overestimate his ability. But seeing him have that confidence and go for it, I don't mind given the rate with which he pulls it off.

 

[Mojorisin]

Following on with the conversation about the wa kids. Who do you think'll be the first 5 names called out?