Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, I’m interested in your thoughts on the Giants draft this year.

I note you haven’t been as high on Callaghan on many of the pundits and even recruitment managers that seem to constantly refer to him after the big 3.

With our selection being Pick 2 the temptation will be there to take him with the other player we are seemingly looking at being Gibcus who I note you also don’t have as high as others.

With our list sitting the way it is which way do you think we will go particularly with our two first rounders? Clearly we have a need for a key defender with Davis on the way out and long term injuries to Keeffe and Buckley but is that addressed via a trade in or the draft?

A player I am quite keen on with our 2nd 1st rounder is Wanganeen-Milera whom I think. could be a difference maker with his silky skills.

I see GWS taking Callaghan at #2 assuming Horne-Francis goes #1 to North.

GWS haven't feared taking the best available player, even if it's a midfielder before (Caldwell/Hately), and I don't see that starting now. Particularly with Callaghan a very different midfielder and one who stylistically is actually very much complementary to the likes of Green/Hopper/Taranto as something very different, and perhaps even a missing ingredient through there.

There are many opportunities to add key defenders this offseason and it doesn't require a top-5 pick.

If GWS want a key defender through the draft, and you don't just have to go through the draft, but through the draft my view is Leek Alleer is a guy to go after and a better key defender than Josh Gibcus. With the bonus being he won't cost a top-5 pick or something silly like that to secure. He's someone where probably after a bid for Fahey is matched, GWS could pretty easily trade a future pick into this years draft and secure Alleer.

Wanganeen-Milera with that second of the first round picks could be roughly worth that pick. Obviously provides something outside, and again in GWS' context is a player who provides contrast, which is needed with so many of the same types. Definitely one GWS could and probably will consider with that pick.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Do they? I don't listen to commentary. I either have it off or I'm talking all through it.

I don't disagree that Butters is Port Adelaide's best.



Gold Coast obviously don't have the history of sports teams Cleveland do, but in terms or relative patheticness in the context of the competition there are similarities, though in the case of the Suns, they've yet to make the finals, which at least the Cavs (I don't follow the other US sports teams), but at least the Cavs have had even before LeBron their reasonable playoff teams.

As cities, I guess the difference is one is a worthwhile holiday destination and the other, well, isn't if we're being honest:



Interesting he sees himself as that kind of midfielder. If he can develop the contested capabilities like either of them, that's a sensational outcome.

There are some similar aspects to Yeo I'd say a lot more than Oliver. Erasmus' special sauce, and to a much greater degree than his contested ball winning is how he reads it and his marking capabilities. He's a special level reader of the ball in flight and exceptional intercept mark. So he shouldn't just be restricted to playing inside.



Swans have great youth and have the established winning culture. Sydney's 24 and unders in particular are sensational when you go through the names.

In terms of player improvement, Sydney along with Essendon, Melbourne and Hawthorn this year have really done an astounding job developing talent I didn't see coming on to the level they have. I have to give credits to all those teams.

I'd love Erasmus, just feels he could play so many roles and at a high standard, a modern midfielder, tall, good above head and below his knees with class and ability forward of centre and in the middle and running both ways. As you said if he can add the contested stuff to all that he'll be an unreal player. As i also said i think it might be modelling on his weaknesses?

 

[The Warlord]

Powell is good but i don't see him as a really creative player, like he can create but not at an absolute elite level, i'd honestly say i feel Simpkin does. Simpkin is a gut running midfielder but also finds it inside/outside and is creative.

Powell's creativity by hand especially was stunning this year. Jy has a great step through traffic.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I see GWS taking Callaghan at #2 assuming Horne-Francis goes #1 to North.

GWS haven't feared taking the best available player, even if it's a midfielder before (Caldwell/Hately), and I don't see that starting now. Particularly with Callaghan a very different midfielder and one who stylistically is actually very much complementary to the likes of Green/Hopper/Taranto as something very different, and perhaps even a missing ingredient through there.

There are many opportunities to add key defenders this offseason and it doesn't require a top-5 pick.

If GWS want a key defender through the draft, and you don't just have to go through the draft, but through the draft my view is Leek Alleer is a guy to go after and a better key defender than Josh Gibcus. With the bonus being he won't cost a top-5 pick or something silly like that to secure. He's someone where probably after a bid for Fahey is matched, GWS could pretty easily trade a future pick into this years draft and secure Alleer.

Wanganeen-Milera with that second of the first round picks could be roughly worth that pick. Obviously provides something outside, and again in GWS' context is a player who provides contrast, which is needed with so many of the same types. Definitely one GWS could and probably will consider with that pick.

I notice you didn't mention Kelly? Considering the Giants history with selecting the best available midfielder every season and many subsequently leaving due to lack of opportunity, i'll be pretty surprised if they call out Finns name. Especially considering how vocal they've been about Gibcus. Plus Callaghan being likened to Kelly in style.

If they are taking Callaghan then the midfield squeeze becomes Kelly, Taranto, Green, Hopper, Coniglio, O'Hallaran, Callaghan and Bruhn. Something has to give IMO. Whether that's Cogs being traded in a salary dump or O'Hallaran seeking opportunity elsewhere. But that would need to play out before the draft.

The GWS pick is the most intriguing one IMO, regardless of who North take.

 

[theGav56]

I'd always be willing with any pick to have it on the table for the right price as a concept.

But personally no if it's two 2021 1sts. I'd prefer Horne-Francis.

Horne-Francis I look at as safe and he's someone I'd be comfortable taking.

One dynamic I feel we'll see in coming years is a lot of the names being touted as first round picks/who go first round - among those, there will be a lot of misses, and more than usual.

I'm sure my view differs to many others, but I really like the options mid/late and feel like with good talent ID there are opportunities there. There are guys I rate top-10 and top-15 who won't be early picks. So I wouldn't feel any particular desire to hold any early picks, as I'd be looking this year if I'm a selector to capitalise on that value. I'll bring up those high conviction names in my upcoming AFL Draft Power Rankings next week. So if I'm selecting for North Melbourne, I could pretty easily draft Horne-Francis and still get the players I'd be targeting, or maybe add a further second round pick just to make sure.

A trade I would do is something like Adelaide's 2021+2022 first round picks for pick 1, then the value would appeal. And I'd feel like I can move that Adelaide 2021 pick down for other appealing assets - players and picks. With a view towards through making those deal bringing in several players who can add to the best-22 over the long run, and not just two.

If it was pick 1 for Cerra and 8 would there need to be any other picks involved?

 

[Knightmare]

I'd love Erasmus, just feels he could play so many roles and at a high standard, a modern midfielder, tall, good above head and below his knees with class and ability forward of centre and in the middle and running both ways. As you said if he can add the contested stuff to all that he'll be an unreal player. As i also said i think it might be modelling on his weaknesses?

Yeo struggled a lot by foot as a junior. So there is that component with Erasmus.

I notice you didn't mention Kelly? Considering the Giants history with selecting the best available midfielder every season and many subsequently leaving due to lack of opportunity, i'll be pretty surprised if they call out Finns name. Especially considering how vocal they've been about Gibcus. Plus Callaghan being likened to Kelly in style.

If they are taking Callaghan then the midfield squeeze becomes Kelly, Taranto, Green, Hopper, Coniglio, O'Hallaran, Callaghan and Bruhn. Something has to give IMO. Whether that's Cogs being traded in a salary dump or O'Hallaran seeking opportunity elsewhere. But that would need to play out before the draft.

The GWS pick is the most intriguing one IMO, regardless of who North take.

Kelly is one of GWS' best mids. I just didn't mention him because Green/Hopper/Taranto as slower mids are the ones GWS need to find contrasts to.

Could GWS be trying to suck people into thinking they'll pick Gibcus? I can't say I know what game they're playing. I do worry Gibcus could be another O'Rourke if picked at 2, as that guy who really shouldn't be picked anywhere near that high.

Coniglio I presume leaves GWS given his irregular status? I haven't followed the news around him, but he's one I'd target if I'm a rival team as he doesn't seem essential to GWS' midfield or even a priority to give games to (albeit he's one I'd personally keep and prioritise as I still rate him). While O'Halloran for mine isn't worthy of being in that midfield mix when you look at the others ahead of him. He's need to improve dramatically as a ball winner and accumulator to be worth giving a meaningful look through there. He's an other GWS could put on the trade table while he has some value.

If it was pick 1 for Cerra and 8 would there need to be any other picks involved?

Not sure North Melbourne would do the trade and I suspect Cerra gets to his chosen club anyway.

If I'm in North Melbourne's position however and Cerra was open to moving to North Melbourne, I'd explore the trade as I don't rate Cerra far behind Horne-Francis from a long term perspective, which I'm sure will differ to how many would view the comparison. I'd go for a further sweetner (perhaps a second rounder) as I'd be confident I can gain more value for my pick one, but I'd be likely to settle for something like that in North Melbourne's position. I am a Cerra fan though and probably more-so than many others are. I still see further untapped scope to keep improving beyond how good he already is. And I could always make that pick 8 into a few other pieces to improve the best-22 further. It's just a case of whoever is trading for Cerra has a good deal of leverage in the deal because they know he's going, so there is that scope to ask for a little more as per this example. It's just a deal I'd be more pleased to do than others even at that valuation.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Coniglio I presume leaves GWS given his irregular status? I haven't followed the news around him, but he's one I'd target if I'm a rival team as he doesn't seem essential to GWS' midfield or even a priority to give games to (albeit he's one I'd personally keep and prioritise as I still rate him).

Would you pay another $5m for the privilege?

 

[Knightmare]

Would you pay another $5m for the privilege?

I don't see a move for Coniglio in quite that same light.

What I mean by that is, as we saw with Treloar last year, I don't see why you can't trade for Coniglio and ask GWS to pay a lot of that money if they're keen to get rid of him. Then the equation comes down less to money, and more to whether he can still play and be an asset to a playing group, and what price is suitable to give up in an exchange. And I'd be expecting to get Coniglio for largely nothing. If I can, and his salary is being in large part paid for by GWS. I'd do a deal as I do still believe in Coniglio with the view that he does have a few more good years in him.

If say a Gold Coast could do something like that as an example. Coniglio would be great for that group as another experienced, established player. And they wouldn't be the only group a Coniglio could add to. Maybe it's a contender needing a midfield boost if it works with their salary cap and doesn't impact on their flexibility for upcoming offseasons to continue to add rival talent and bring back their own.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Why would GWS ship him out if they're still stuck with his salary? The salary is the key motivation, and they aren't in blown-cap straits like Collingwood were.

 

[Knightmare]

Why would GWS ship him out if they're still stuck with his salary? The salary is the key motivation, and they aren't in blown-cap straits like Collingwood were.

Do GWS see Coniglio as best-22 beyond this year?

I don't know the answer to that. He has been dropped both last year and this year. It feels like he'll get phased out if retained.

Even if no one pays Coniglio's full salary, they may just want him out to make room for their younger midfielders.

 

[danielG]

Do GWS see Coniglio as best-22 beyond this year?

I don't know the answer to that. He has been dropped both last year and this year. It feels like he'll get phased out if retained.

Even if no one pays Coniglio's full salary, they may just want him out to make room for their younger midfielders.

GWS list is so full of midfielders that they don’t even get a chance to show how good they are, I’m not sure how another one not being able to demonstrate their talent would help.. Next cab off the rank to crack their midfield is Greene and Bruhn, when would a Callaghan even get a run in there, he’d be played off the half back flank for 3 years and stagnate his development. They should take Gibcus as help for Taylor. The GWS recruiting manager loves his athletic profile. They also really need a marking forward so they may target Amiss though maybe with their second at which point he’s gone.
Crows would swoop on Callaghan Would be my guess. He’d provide a point of difference. I can see GC trading their pick to Tigers for Chol and CCJ and their first pick. I also hope GC look seriously at Parker and Coniglio, but somehow they’re tight on cap space. AFL should not bother with compo picks for GC but give them cap space, they need to get ready made players in, and good ones not Atkins and Brandon Ellis types.

 

[Blackhawk42]

GWS list is so full of midfielders that they don’t even get a chance to show how good they are, I’m not sure how another one not being able to demonstrate their talent would help.. Next cab off the rank to crack their midfield is Greene and Bruhn, when would a Callaghan even get a run in there, he’d be played off the half back flank for 3 years and stagnate his development. They should take Gibcus as help for Taylor. The GWS recruiting manager loves his athletic profile. They also really need a marking forward so they may target Amiss though maybe with their second at which point he’s gone.
Crows would swoop on Callaghan Would be my guess. He’d provide a point of difference. I can see GC trading their pick to Tigers for Chol and CCJ and their first pick. I also hope GC look seriously at Parker and Coniglio, but somehow they’re tight on cap space. AFL should not bother with compo picks for GC but give them cap space, they need to get ready made players in, and good ones not Atkins and Brandon Ellis types.

Ellis has been good for them to be fair.

 

[Knightmare]

GWS list is so full of midfielders that they don’t even get a chance to show how good they are, I’m not sure how another one not being able to demonstrate their talent would help.. Next cab off the rank to crack their midfield is Greene and Bruhn, when would a Callaghan even get a run in there, he’d be played off the half back flank for 3 years and stagnate his development. They should take Gibcus as help for Taylor. The GWS recruiting manager loves his athletic profile. They also really need a marking forward so they may target Amiss though maybe with their second at which point he’s gone.
Crows would swoop on Callaghan Would be my guess. He’d provide a point of difference. I can see GC trading their pick to Tigers for Chol and CCJ and their first pick. I also hope GC look seriously at Parker and Coniglio, but somehow they’re tight on cap space. AFL should not bother with compo picks for GC but give them cap space, they need to get ready made players in, and good ones not Atkins and Brandon Ellis types.

GWS would do better with another pick getting a Leek Alleer. He's the better key defender if committed to drafting one.

Jesse Hogan I view as that marking key forward for the Giants. He's taking his contested grabs again and is good for his 2 goals per game.

Riccardi could have been that, but GWS haven't shown any meaningful faith in him, so he'll presumably go. A Hogan/Himmelberg/Finlayson combination is strong with Sproule there as depth.

I see some more pressing problems in other parts of the field in their situation. On the outside, in defence and up forward with their general forwards I can see opportunities to upgrade to a greater extent more-so than key forward. If they go get a key forward, it needs to be a meaningful upgrade rather than more of the same or similar calibre players, which is what I'd be thinking with Amiss, or for that matter any of those they could secure this offseason.

I agree with you completely on Gold Coast and how they need to be supported though. The key for them is adding more capable, established footballers and veteran leaders. Young talent isn't going to do much as per each of their attempts to date if they don't have that support around them to facilitate and maximise their development.

Gold Coast with their first pick would need more than Chol and CCJ to move it back to Richmond's first. They might move later picks for either/or/both of those guys, but nothing so early. As a concept I don't mind that kind of moving back, but they're not the guys to do that for at least in my view.

 

[Wild Bill]

Browns and Freo. That’s tough. Let’s hope Freo brings you some joy soon.

A lot to like about the Browns this year.

 

[Wild Bill]

If it was pick 1 for Cerra and 8 would there need to be any other picks involved?

I would do that. Cerra is a very good player.

 

[LittleG]

A lot to like about the Browns this year.

Can they stop Lamar and take the division?

Probably a better discussion in an NFL thread.

 

[briztoon]

Knightmare, I’m interested in your thoughts on the Giants draft this year.

I note you haven’t been as high on Callaghan on many of the pundits and even recruitment managers that seem to constantly refer to him after the big 3.

With our selection being Pick 2 the temptation will be there to take him with the other player we are seemingly looking at being Gibcus who I note you also don’t have as high as others.

With our list sitting the way it is which way do you think we will go particularly with our two first rounders? Clearly we have a need for a key defender with Davis on the way out and long term injuries to Keeffe and Buckley but is that addressed via a trade in or the draft?

A player I am quite keen on with our 2nd 1st rounder is Wanganeen-Milera whom I think. could be a difference maker with his silky skills.

Just on what recruiters say.

It would suit recruiters to run with the media’s narrative, to keep their own draft orders secret, hoping to get their preferred target/s.

Most recruiters are still evasive with Twomey when talking about this year’s prospects.

 

[CapCotch21]

Thoughts on Richmond's draft hand KM? Have pick 7 and they have not had a pick that high for a long time. Will there be a really high quality generational type in that range or should they package 7 and 16 (Geelong first rounder) for Gold Coast pick 3? How quickly does the top end talent run dry? My thoughts are that they have a few good young players on their list currently (especially young mids - Martyn, Dow, Ross, RCD, Bolton), so adding a really high quality type such as Rachele would be great as he provides a little more forward flare, something that the others don't necessarily posess. Also Neil Erasmus could be a good option at 7, but do you think Rachele may be gone by 7? From the surface doesn't appear that pick 7 this year will be as strong as previous years (Elijah Hollands, Hayden Young

26

Hayden Young

Age

23

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.4

3star

MG

160.0

3star

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

2star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.4

2star

MG

160.0

3star

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

MG

160.0

3star

, Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

), so trading up the order may be a good idea. What are your thoughts on the top echelon of the draft?

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Yeo struggled a lot by foot as a junior. So there is that component with Erasmus.



Kelly is one of GWS' best mids. I just didn't mention him because Green/Hopper/Taranto as slower mids are the ones GWS need to find contrasts to.

Could GWS be trying to suck people into thinking they'll pick Gibcus? I can't say I know what game they're playing. I do worry Gibcus could be another O'Rourke if picked at 2, as that guy who really shouldn't be picked anywhere near that high.

Coniglio I presume leaves GWS given his irregular status? I haven't followed the news around him, but he's one I'd target if I'm a rival team as he doesn't seem essential to GWS' midfield or even a priority to give games to (albeit he's one I'd personally keep and prioritise as I still rate him). While O'Halloran for mine isn't worthy of being in that midfield mix when you look at the others ahead of him. He's need to improve dramatically as a ball winner and accumulator to be worth giving a meaningful look through there. He's an other GWS could put on the trade table while he has some value.



Not sure North Melbourne would do the trade and I suspect Cerra gets to his chosen club anyway.

If I'm in North Melbourne's position however and Cerra was open to moving to North Melbourne, I'd explore the trade as I don't rate Cerra far behind Horne-Francis from a long term perspective, which I'm sure will differ to how many would view the comparison. I'd go for a further sweetner (perhaps a second rounder) as I'd be confident I can gain more value for my pick one, but I'd be likely to settle for something like that in North Melbourne's position. I am a Cerra fan though and probably more-so than many others are. I still see further untapped scope to keep improving beyond how good he already is. And I could always make that pick 8 into a few other pieces to improve the best-22 further. It's just a case of whoever is trading for Cerra has a good deal of leverage in the deal because they know he's going, so there is that scope to ask for a little more as per this example. It's just a deal I'd be more pleased to do than others even at that valuation.

Yeah ig, i don't think his foot skills are bad at all and he looks comfortable on both feet. That much i didn't know his pref foot and he has a good technique when he kicks aswell.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Knightmare Can you tell me anything about Cooper Hamilton? Haven't really heard much about him but noticed from his highlights on Baseline Footy that he is well-built, looks strong and has some agility. Draft range?

 

[Knightmare]

Thoughts on Richmond's draft hand KM? Have pick 7 and they have not had a pick that high for a long time. Will there be a really high quality generational type in that range or should they package 7 and 16 (Geelong first rounder) for Gold Coast pick 3? How quickly does the top end talent run dry? My thoughts are that they have a few good young players on their list currently (especially young mids - Martyn, Dow, Ross, RCD, Bolton), so adding a really high quality type such as Rachele would be great as he provides a little more forward flare, something that the others don't necessarily posess. Also Neil Erasmus could be a good option at 7, but do you think Rachele may be gone by 7? From the surface doesn't appear that pick 7 this year will be as strong as previous years (Elijah Hollands, Hayden Young, Bailey Smith), so trading up the order may be a good idea. What are your thoughts on the top echelon of the draft?

Unlikely you'll get a generational type with either of those first round picks. You're more likely to miss on one of those picks, with a few projected top-10 picks even I'm just not sure on and are types where I'd let someone else pick.

It's generally seen as there is a top roughly 4 in Daicos (F/S)/Horne/Darcy (F/S)/Callaghan and after that there should be more interpretation.

Rachele may be there at 7, but that's not assured. Same story with Erasmus. It's roughly around where their likely range is in both cases.

Others may disagree, but I don't place as high of a premium on first round picks this year. No single pick inside the first round for me holds more than usual value. It's more in the second and third rounds, late draft, perhaps as rookies with good talent ID I see opportunities, and some that can be better than those projected to feature inside the first round.

Probably not what you want to hear, but if I'm picking in this draft and I have first round picks, I'd be more than happy to do some one for twos, moving an early pick down for a slightly low pick and player, or pick and a future pick. And that's just based on where I feel like I can get draft value. The next observer depending on who they're liking may feel there are different sweet spots in this draft.

Knightmare Can you tell me anything about Cooper Hamilton? Haven't really heard much about him but noticed from his highlights on Baseline Footy that he is well-built, looks strong and has some agility. Draft range?

He's a running defender who can push through the midfield and win the footy. He has his fans and could be a 30-late pick. I wouldn't be surprised if he featured late second or early third round.

 

[ummmbont]

Unlikely you'll get a generational type with either of those first round picks. You're more likely to miss on one of those picks, with a few projected top-10 picks even I'm just not sure on and are types where I'd let someone else pick.

It's generally seen as there is a top roughly 4 in Daicos (F/S)/Horne/Darcy (F/S)/Callaghan and after that there should be more interpretation.

Rachele may be there at 7, but that's not assured. Same story with Erasmus. It's roughly around where their likely range is in both cases.

Others may disagree, but I don't place as high of a premium on first round picks this year. No single pick inside the first round for me holds more than usual value. It's more in the second and third rounds, late draft, perhaps as rookies with good talent ID I see opportunities, and some that can be better than those projected to feature inside the first round.

Probably not what you want to hear, but if I'm picking in this draft and I have first round picks, I'd be more than happy to do some one for twos, moving an early pick down for a slightly low pick and player, or pick and a future pick. And that's just based on where I feel like I can get draft value. The next observer depending on who they're liking may feel there are different sweet spots in this draft.



He's a running defender who can push through the midfield and win the footy. He has his fans and could be a 30-late pick. I wouldn't be surprised if he featured late second or early third round.

Hi mate
I would just like to pump you up
You new how good Bailey smith was going to turn into this bull /well picked

 

[Knightmare]

Hi mate
I would just like to pump you up
You new how good Bailey smith was going to turn into this bull /well picked

Bailey Smith is a ripper and it looks like now a match-winner. Clutch.

 

[Giant Pete]

Be interesting to see if the Giants take a kpd with either of their first round picks.

 

[Giant Pete]

GWS list is so full of midfielders that they don’t even get a chance to show how good they are, I’m not sure how another one not being able to demonstrate their talent would help.. Next cab off the rank to crack their midfield is Greene and Bruhn, when would a Callaghan even get a run in there, he’d be played off the half back flank for 3 years and stagnate his development. They should take Gibcus as help for Taylor. The GWS recruiting manager loves his athletic profile. They also really need a marking forward so they may target Amiss though maybe with their second at which point he’s gone.
Crows would swoop on Callaghan Would be my guess. He’d provide a point of difference. I can see GC trading their pick to Tigers for Chol and CCJ and their first pick. I also hope GC look seriously at Parker and Coniglio, but somehow they’re tight on cap space. AFL should not bother with compo picks for GC but give them cap space, they need to get ready made players in, and good ones not Atkins and Brandon Ellis types.

We need more outside run. Callaghan would spend time on a wing.