Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Shannin]

Interesting you mentioned Dogs would ask for Lynch for Lipinski, the one at the Dogs I'd like would be Ed Richards

20

Ed Richards

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.4

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.5

3star

T

2.4

4star

CL

0.7

3star

D

11.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

5.3

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.1

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

9.8

4star

HB

4.8

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

, his first year at the dogs was quality playing off the HB. Would love Ed and IQ as our running defenders. if they threw in West or Lipinski even better. Max Lynch has currency.

 

[Davo-27]

I'm actually a little surprised there is that much separation, or separation at all. Interesting, and not what I expected.

Probably speaks to how Lipinski is valued or not valued if West is valued more highly.

Having watched West in the VFL, he feels underutilised and like someone who could be a part of a midfield on another team, so that's positive to hear Dogs fans who probably see more of him than I do feel there is something there with him.

I'd probably ask in that case for Lipinski and a future second for Lynch as the Dogs like Collingwood won't want to reduce their draft position for this year.



Do you feel West will ever best best-22 for the Dogs? Through the midfield the question is who he could play ahead of.

My view with Lipinski is the same re. him playing inside. I loved him through there in the preseason and feel like if he mostly plays there and for patches rotating forward, that's his best use case.



To confirm, I have seen more of JHF than other prospects this year. And with the Victorian lockdowns and the Victorian games not streamed on YouTube to be able to go back over and watch again as I'm accustomed to in recent seasons, I'd imagine it would be the same for most draft observers. South Adelaide have the most interesting combination of players, so of the certainly SA teams, they're the one people should be watching relatively speaking the highest concentration of this year as I have.

What I would caution is overconcentrating on one team as there is the law of diminishing returns.

If you support a team, you may feel compelled to watch your team every week. From a junior or state league perspective though, I'd rather spread myself thinner and across a lot more teams so that my understanding of the broader landscape is a lot better and certainly to some extent less concentred, understanding that law of diminishing returns.

You get to a point with teams and players where you know their games, you know what they do and you know what to expect. When you know their games well enough, you can look at the stat sheet and have an idea of 90% of what has happened for those games you haven't seen. If you get to that level of feel with what's happening, then you're going pretty well and would be advised to do the same with other teams.

I can know looking at Horne-Francis, Roberts, Draper and Skinner even that I rate them and to what extent I rate them. There isn't a lot more to learn and nothing that surprises me. It's just general interest at this time of season as to how they each close the season out, to see if they can take any final steps in any of their last games and show anything new/different. And it's a lot easier to do at this time of year with the season coming to a close and less games to watch.

i agree regarding diminishing returns, after i've seen a player in 5 games or so, i get very little if anything from watching more games of that player, unless they play a new position or something, it really is a waste of time seeing the same plays time and time again, maybe if you have a poor memory watching more than 5 games of the same player could be handy?, because with a bad memory people might be able to remind themselves how good or bad they are in certain situations as they might have forgotten?

 

[Knightmare]

Interesting you mentioned Dogs would ask for Lynch for Lipinski, the one at the Dogs I'd like would be Ed Richards, his first year at the dogs was quality playing off the HB. Would love Ed and IQ as our running defenders. if they threw in West or Lipinski even better. Max Lynch has currency.

Richards has re-signed. So he's not available.

i agree regarding diminishing returns, after i've seen a player in 5 games or so, i get very little if anything from watching more games of that player, unless they play a new position or something, it really is a waste of time seeing the same plays time and time again, maybe if you have a poor memory watching more than 5 games of the same player could be handy?

Largely right. After that it's diminishing returns.

For those like me with an awful short term memory, it just means you have to compensate by taking extensive notes while watching so you can refer back. When I'm at games or watching games online, I'm relentlessly taking notes the whole time. Re-winding, watching through plays again that I want to take more extensive notes on. I watch a lot of games, but I'd like to think my focus is on quality of analysis rather than quantity.

It doesn't mean you can't see more of a player or a team. Sometimes they may play against different levels of competition and there are new things you can learn, or they may translate to another level better or worse than expected.

It's ultimately just a personal decision and one where if you've done it long enough, you should have enough of a feel for how much viewing of one player is enough to have enough of a feel for their games.

*Mostly unrelated rant:
But my frustration this year has been how little I've been able to see of the Victorians. Without the games being on YouTube this year, there is no watching replays of the games, and I'm also missing the opportunity to go back and re-watch/re-wind particular moments in games and take some further notes of those. It's been just a case of, watch every game possible, and those that are played at the same time, it's just picking which teams are more important to watch in that gives week to help build up that log of notes and feel for as many players as possible, as best as can possibly be achieved.

I'd need to buy several computers to have set up screen recording all the games at once if I wanted to replay and review games in the kind of depth I'd like.

All I can say is bring back the games on YouTube!

 

[eDPS]

There are players like Rowell, Walsh and Daicos in their draft year where if you have watched one of their games you have watched them all pretty much. In some cases with players that have some upside seeing how they play early and see if they improve as the year goes on is a big thing, Wanganeen-Milera a good example this year.

 

[Shannin]

Richards has re-signed. So he's not available.

So has Lynch

 

[Knightmare]

There are players like Rowell, Walsh and Daicos in their draft year where if you have watched one of their games you have watched them all pretty much. In some cases with players that have some upside seeing how they play early and see if they improve as the year goes on is a big thing, Wanganeen-Milera a good example this year.

Don't disagree.

 

[Knightmare]

Shannin

Has Max Lynch extended his contract? I haven't read/noted anything.

Footywire lists Lynch still as unsigned, so unless it has just happened or they haven't updated it?

 

[YeOldTiger]

I'm finding this year more than any single year past there is greater separation in my views to other draft watchers, and by a considerable margin. It will show up in a big way when my September Power Rankings are up on ESPN next week, with my level of conviction much higher on a lot of players who aren't receiving much or in some cases any coverage. And with the small sample size this year and limited to none last year for some states, that should be expected.

I make no apology for having my own position on any prospect, state leaguer, or AFL footballer past or present. Nor should anyone need apologise for having their own positions on players.

What this dynamic of such vast difference in opinion of players, and I'm not just talking about Horne-Francis who still fundamentally I rate on my board where others will have him on theirs, just with much milder expectation, it's a draft I'd be very happy to be largely trading out of in the early rounds to capitalise on the opportunities I'm seeing late to secure a number of guys who can outperform a good number of players projected to feature first round.

Jack Avery was a bit of a shock being ranked so high, but more that others hadn't already had him in the Top 20. Seems to have gone under the radar. Looks like a plug and play type to me.

 

[YeOldTiger]

My thing with Johnson is, that's the fourth game of his I've seen this year.

The first three were complete flops that I saw, and it was during the first half of the season. That's why he has dropped so far down my board compared to where he started the year.

He has however come good in more recent weeks and was for mine the best midfielder afield and was my choice of best afield. He certainly has the tricks with ball in hand. But he will need to show he can find and win it every week and become that consistently influential player. He'll need to continue improving.

For me he's a real boom/bust pick. His ceiling is incredibly high if everything really works out, but it's going to come down to how he develops. He reminds me a lot of Will Setterfield as that skilled tall mid who I just hope can become that consistent accumulator and ball winner through the midfield. He might be one where if drafted by a good team, he could be really good, but if picked by a team without the veteran leadership and good coaching may as with Setterfield have a hard time developing to potential. If things go right, there are those Pendlebury-esque vibes. No way he will be as good from my viewings this year, but perhaps he could be somewhere inbetween the two and maybe be a David Mundy or something closer to that calibre if things work out.

Yep I think Mundy is a good comparison for Johnson. Let's hope he's even half as good.

 

[Knightmare]

Jack Avery was a bit of a shock being ranked so high, but more that others hadn't already had him in the Top 20. Seems to have gone under the radar. Looks like a plug and play type to me.

Avery will be a shock that high as he wasn't invited to the national combine.

That's why I've been talking about seeing a lot of value outside the first round. There are guys like Avery and Uwland among others I rate a lot more highly than others will and actually like a lot more than a number of those who will feature in the first round.

Avery is an incredible footballer. Asked to play v Keitel (the WAFL's premier key forward on the weekend). Held him to 2 goals. He was named rightly one of the bests. He's one of those guys who performs every week and he's a great all-around defender who will go under the radar. Plug and play, and that kind of tweener I've learnt not to underrate based on others with similar capabilities I haven't rated as highly as I should have in the past.

Yep I think Mundy is a good comparison for Johnson. Let's hope he's even half as good.

If he can have half the career. Win.

 

[Shannin]

Shannin

Has Max Lynch extended his contract? I haven't read/noted anything.

Footywire lists Lynch still as unsigned, so unless it has just happened or they haven't updated it?

I thought he mentioned it on his Insta page, I'm probably wrong as usual.

 

[Big_Newon]

Who is Conor Macdonald and what are his traits?

 

[briztoon]

If others have. Fantastic.

I'll always back myself in with my own talent ID. And for those I've seen a good amount of as I have with Horne-Francis, I'll back myself in with a high level of conviction.

I get in the maximum volume of games broadly as I can with the time I have available to me across NAB League/AFL/SANFL/WAFL/VFL. That's what I'm interested in doing.

If people choose to overconcentrate their time on one state league team, there is an opportunity cost to making that decision.

My comment had nothing to do with your assessment of Horne.

It had everything to do with you claiming something that blatantly wasn’t true.

You have repeatedly made claims of not reading other draft watchers threads or the media. That’s cool.

But don’t make all encompassing statements that include all these other people if you don’t actually know what they do or don’t do.

There’s three or four draft watchers here who work for AFL Draft Central, plus another couple who aren’t on BigFooty.

I can guarantee as a full time publication, with full time and part time staff, and interns, AFL Draft Central covers way more football.

They aren’t concentrating on one team. They are watching every team, every player.

 

[briztoon]

Apologies if you meant you have watched more of Horne than any other kid. I didn’t read it that way, obviously.

 

[Knightmare]

I thought he mentioned it on his Insta page, I'm probably wrong as usual.

Possible. Can't say I'm an instagramer.

Others follow the news cycle more closely than me. I'm a game watcher.

Who is Conor Macdonald and what are his traits?

Power rankings can be found on page one. I go through his strengths and weaknesses there.

My comment had nothing to do with your assessment of Horne.

It had everything to do with you claiming something that blatantly wasn’t true.

You have repeatedly made claims of not reading other draft watchers threads or the media. That’s cool.

But don’t make all encompassing statements that include all these other people if you don’t actually know what they do or don’t do.

There’s three or four draft watchers here who work for AFL Draft Central, plus another couple who aren’t on BigFooty.

I can guarantee as a full time publication, with full time and part time staff, and interns, AFL Draft Central covers way more football.

They aren’t concentrating on one team. They are watching every team, every player.

When I said "I've watched more Horne-Francis than anyone this year." my meaning is, to clarify, as you seem to have the meaning of what I said confused is: of all the players in this year's draft, there is no one player I have watched more games of this year, or from this pool broadly.

I can't say I have a negative word to say about Draft Central or any of their contributors. I routinely direct people who want to start writing about the draft and covering the draft to them as a potential starting point. I think it's great that there is a small business in the AFL draft space to give people with a passion for the game a possible employment opportunity. I'd love to see them continue to grow as a website. I have no animosity towards Draft Central, I'd like broadly for the draft and trading space to continue to grow and expand and for there to be a growing number of voices. And Draft Central no doubt will play a part in that vision if that is to occur.

I'm an analysis guy. The game itself is why it's played and broadly in the AFL industry I support more analysis and respect those who take an analytical approach to the game. So anyone in that space broadly has my support, as a part of the game that really should be front and centre within all our media publications rather than all the non football issues that take up too much website/newspaper/tv space.

I'll always be as long as I'm covering footy doing my own analysis and vocally encouraging others to do their own and back themselves in.

My personal belief is, there isn't such a thing as oversaturation. If everyone is doing their own analysis, I see it as you might notice content from one publication, take an interest, then look at others and seek out other opinions and then become absorbed in the space. It's like if you watch YouTube, you get one player grow big in a space, then you'll have a bunch of others really emerge in that same space, and having those numbers in the space helps with that growth, and growth of interest from the public.

That's why I've been consistent in saying, I don't view anyone on Bigfooty or in the media as competition. I'm here to compete against myself. Better myself. And go try and make a better draft board than clubs - call some they don't rate and call some that they overrate.

 

[dylan93]

Melbourne needs a key project forward. Any idea who the Dees should be targeting.

I think we could still jump up and snag Mac Andrew if we're invested in him due to developing him over the past 5 or so years, but it's looking increasingly difficult.

 

[flipper83]

Do you feel West will ever best best-22 for the Dogs? Through the midfield the question is who he could play ahead of.

My view with Lipinski is the same re. him playing inside. I loved him through there in the preseason and feel like if he mostly plays there and for patches rotating forward, that's his best use case.

The feel is that Libba might not have that long left with his injury history so we need a developing replacement for him.
Hard player to replace and West probably never gets near Libbas level for contested ball winning but he shows far more appetite for it than Lipinski. He also could be best 22 as a half forward pressure player, he just needs to improve his composure.

Interesting you mentioned Dogs would ask for Lynch for Lipinski, the one at the Dogs I'd like would be Ed Richards, his first year at the dogs was quality playing off the HB. Would love Ed and IQ as our running defenders. if they threw in West or Lipinski even better. Max Lynch has currency.

I know Richards is often mentioned as a fringe player in articles but he is pretty regularly picked when he isn't injured.
The role he usually plays doesn't lead to a lot of stats or tend to be recognised by fans or media but I think the club values him very highly.

 

[Knightmare]

Melbourne needs a key project forward. Any idea who the Dees should be targeting.

I think we could still jump up and snag Mac Andrew if we're invested in him due to developing him over the past 5 or so years, but it's looking increasingly difficult.

Mac Andrew is more a ruck than key forward (once developed physically), so he'd be drafted, if Melbourne can find a way to move up in the draft to secure him more-so to one day share the ruck minutes.

I'm not all that enthusiastic about the key forwards in this pool. If I had to take one late/rookie though, a Josh Rentsch is one I like the physical presence of. Nothing wrong with waiting for the next draft

It's not a draft where there is a particular key forward I'm enthusiastic about, so it's a need where I'd say trade for one if you need one or wait another year as there should be more worthwhile available options from a price to performance perspective, or with better long term scope.

This is more the year I'm seeing as the year to load up on key defenders more-so than key forwards.

The feel is that Libba might not have that long left with his injury history so we need a developing replacement for him.
Hard player to replace and West probably never gets near Libbas level for contested ball winning but he shows far more appetite for it than Lipinski. He also could be best 22 as a half forward pressure player, he just needs to improve his composure.

Libba is playing some incredible football. He was someone I would have picked for All-Australian selection even. If West can be that successor, or get some minutes in that same midfield, that would be interesting to see.

 

[chopflop]

Don't disagree.

Double negative. Agree works here also. Edit for conciseness

 

[ummmbont]

I have been told that Treloar will ask dogs to be traded to qld.
If this is right dogs will ask for future 1st rounder 2022.
Dogs will keep west but lipinski will go to hawthorn second rounder.

Dogs will try to load up picks for 2022 when Wood,Duryea,Martin retire

This year they no what’s coming Darcy now 206cm KPP and they will take a few spec pics.

Jong retire
Cavarra delist
Lipinski trade
Wallis trade
Hayes delist
Treloar-maybe 2022 first

Bevo does not stress over ruckman and will go with Sweet,Martin,English,and a open when needed Darcy.
Think we are in a fantastic position moving forward.

 

[Morro]

Hey Mate, any chance Ward makes it to the Tigers first pick? Seems the most well rounded of the mids likely to be thereabouts? Would be perfect for us IMO.

 

[Knightmare]

I have been told that Treloar will ask dogs to be traded to qld.
If this is right dogs will ask for future 1st rounder 2022.
Dogs will keep west but lipinski will go to hawthorn second rounder.

Dogs will try to load up picks for 2022 when Wood,Duryea,Martin retire

This year they no what’s coming Darcy now 206cm KPP and they will take a few spec pics.

Jong retire
Cavarra delist
Lipinski trade
Wallis trade
Hayes delist
Treloar-maybe 2022 first

Bevo does not stress over ruckman and will go with Sweet,Martin,English,and a open when needed Darcy.
Think we are in a fantastic position moving forward.

Can't say I've heard Treloar will request a trade, though I'm hardly exposed to all the rumours.

I've only heard Lipinski to either Carlton or Collingwood at this stage.

Seeing Darcy in 2022 in the ruck similarly would be a surprise. He's still skinny. He needs to develop physically and become durable before that exposure.

Hey Mate, any chance Ward makes it to the Tigers first pick? Seems the most well rounded of the mids likely to be thereabouts? Would be perfect for us IMO.

Possible but against the odds. Take him if there but develop a contingency plan would be my tip.

 

[THE A5]

Been a bit out of the loop with the draft but KM who do you think would be an ideal pick for WC first pick? Was thinking a mid. Like the sound of Draper purely cause WC have a tendency to chuck young mids into HFF and let them rot there for a bit. Sheed probably the only one in recentish times thats done ok. Luke Shuey

13

Luke Shuey

Age

35

Ht

184cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.7

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

10.7

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

4.9

5star

CL

5.6

5star

D

18.7

4star

K

10.8

4star

HB

7.8

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

4.3

5star

D

17.0

5star

K

9.2

4star

HB

7.8

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.8

5star

CL

1.4

4star

going back a decade was the last player that transitioned well from HFF/mid to mid for us.

Also thought on Trew? Had some ok moments at WAFL this season but never really set it on fire but also suffered a few injury. The vive I'm getting is that he isn't big or strong atm to play his style of footy against big bodies but the club seem to rate his inside work

 

[Knightmare]

Been a bit out of the loop with the draft but KM who do you think would be an ideal pick for WC first pick? Was thinking a mid. Like the sound of Draper purely cause WC have a tendency to chuck young mids into HFF and let them rot there for a bit. Sheed probably the only one in recentish times thats done ok. Luke Shuey going back a decade was the last player that transitioned well from HFF/mid to mid for us.

Also thought on Trew? Had some ok moments at WAFL this season but never really set it on fire but also suffered a few injury. The vive I'm getting is that he isn't big or strong atm to play his style of footy against big bodies but the club seem to rate his inside work

Draper more likely than not I feel like will be gone by West Coast's pick.

With West Coast's history of taking guys with performances on the board from years past, Matthew Roberts I'd expect would be very high up the list. He can play both mid and across half-forward and is ready-to-go.

Trew for me is on the vanilla side. As per my comments last year, not sure what that trick will be that will see him become AFL calibre. It's possible he is retained for another year, but I'm not sure given he's really exclusively that mid only type, I'm just not seeing what that path to being a best-22 player is at this point in time.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Jordan Lukac:

Splitting his time between playing up forward and through the ruck, the athletic Jordan Lukac outleapt rival ruckmen regularly at centre bounces, while around the ground displayed a midfielder-like fluidity to his movement. At 196cm, he was also just as threatening forward of centre, creating separation on the lead and looking like a threat whenever he leapt for the ball or had front position one-on-one.

Question of discussion: Am I on my own in being high conviction on Jack Avery and Sam Skinner

31

Sam Skinner

Age

28

Ht

197cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.0

2star

K

4.0

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.0

1star

T

3.0

5star

MG

101.0

2star

No current season stats available

D

9.0

3star

K

4.0

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.0

1star

T

3.0

5star

MG

101.0

2star

?

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...ruckman-jordan-lukac-shows-shades-paddy-ryder