Ladder (and Future) Predictor

[Leg End]

I assumed we would lose 2 matches - Crows and GWS - between now and finals - finishing 6th. Finals series - we will run through St Kilda, both SA teams then smack GWS in the grand final (with Toby Greene carried off whining in first 2 minutes).

Quite simply, with a relatively healthy list, I rate Swans as one of the best, most complete, all-round talented teams this year (and for years to come). crows, port and GWS do not over'y impress me - they are all very beatable.

There's one big caveat here.

Friday night proved again that Melbourne umpiring will again be our greatest danger. The free kicks gifted to McKernan and Daniher were nothing short of fraud. The free kicks not given to Buddy for pushes, armchops etc are corrupt in the extreme.

Never forget the contrived Bulldogs fairytale of last year. It is our biggest threat.

But we are good enough to win everything this year. A level playing field would be nice - but it won't happen. Go Swans.

 

[Jewelsbon]

Totally agree but the elephant in the room is the team we played on Friday night. I truly believe the AFL will do whatever it can to get Essendon the flag, that is the fairy tale for them this year.
As someone said on another thread, it's starting to look as staged as the wrestling!

 

[scaryness]

Totally agree but the elephant in the room is the team we played on Friday night. I truly believe the AFL will do whatever it can to get Essendon the flag, that is the fairy tale for them this year.
As someone said on another thread, it's starting to look as staged as the wrestling!

Even if the AFL wanted to rig their competition, they would not pick the recently disgraced drug cheats win the flag, no matter what the narrative is.

 

[mtooler]

I ran through the remaining matches on afl.com.au and have us tied for 8th with Dees so % important. I think we lose 3 games to end the year, anymore and we miss the finals. We really need the top 3 teams to go on massive winning streaks and teams around us lose as much as possible.

 

[Kapanis]

Even if the AFL wanted to rig their competition, they would not pick the recently disgraced drug cheats win the flag, no matter what the narrative is.

Spot on. GWS on the other hand.

 

[momentbymoment]

Spot on. GWS on the other hand.

Or Melbourne ...
Might be a good idea to smash them next week.

 

[Kapanis]

Or Melbourne ...
Might be a good idea to smash them next week.

Yeh, I can see a melbourne/ GWS gf being the ideal script for the afl

 

[momentbymoment]

Yeh, I can see a melbourne/ GWS gf being the ideal script for the afl

So ....
#bravemelbourne v #draftcheats

I can see the Melbourne media getting behind that narrative.

 

[Kapanis]

So ....
#bravemelbourne v #draftcheats

I can see the Melbourne media getting behind that narrative.

#brave melbourne vs #returnoninvestment

 

[melbournehammer]

I really dont see it. We have ridden our luck for two weeks in a row and just scraped home. Its not like we are blowing teams off the park.

We will drop other games.

But its been a game effort to get back to where we are.

 

[RW]

When everyone is fit and healthy, I think our team can beat anyone... but realistically I have to say that the gap between our best and our worst is more of a factor than the umpires (and the umpiring has been bad, we know that, but it's not going to change). I still think our game plan is a bit odd, particularly the way we structure our forward line, but our midfield is winning the ball again which means you would have to give us a chance against most sides. But we'll almost certainly drop other games.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

I really dont see it. We have ridden our luck for two weeks in a row and just scraped home. Its not like we are blowing teams off the park.

We will drop other games.

But its been a game effort to get back to where we are.

Maybe. Or maybe we've evened up the Hawthorn/Collingwood results. I don't think Geelong or Adelaide are unwinnable, and I suspect we'll get one of those and lose elsewhere. Still think we'll make it, but I'll have my doubts if we lose to Melbourne with them off a six day break after a trip to Perth.

 

[melbournehammer]

Maybe. Or maybe we've evened up the Hawthorn/Collingwood results. I don't think Geelong or Adelaide are unwinnable, and I suspect we'll get one of those and lose elsewhere. Still think we'll make it, but I'll have my doubts if we lose to Melbourne with them off a six day break after a trip to Perth.

But it is the hawthorn collingwood and carlton games that make the season so hard for us. we've dropped games we should have won. we haven't really won any (other than maybe richmond) that we should have lost. we can beat anyone on our day but you only need a bit of bad luck (2 injuries before half time ?) and it cant be done.

 

[The King!]

we are not winning a flag with Dean Towers and Callum Sinclair in the side

We need Tippett to pull his finger out

 

[The King!]

if the afl was rigged i think theyd love essendon to win

you could also see the delusional scum getting Hird to present the cup too

Afl would love essendon, carlton, collingwood, Richmond top 4

as much as GWS have drafted well etc i dont think the afl ever wanted them to be this good, they are meant to be good enough to be up and about not win it all

The umps decided to ride the fairytale last year for some ****en reason

 

[SwansProudly]

% % % %

 

[Kirkswan]

I don't think it's rigged, I do think we are good enough to win the flag... at our best!

But, and its a big but, we have only produced our best form in short patches this year. Last week and the week before provide to me that we have the skills, structure and most importantly, the will to win regardless of the odds. But some of the football we have been serving up has been nothing short of crap... and I can't really understand why. I haven't heard anything about Reid or Buddy carrying an injury, and yet in the last two games neither of them could kick a goal!?? Early in the season our defence forgot how to defend, and our mids before that seemed to forget what pressure and contested footy was about! We had lots of players out with injuries, and players playing with injuries, but I don't really think that that accounts for it. I don't blame Horse (or the rest of the coaching team) as if there was something seriously wrong with the structures and game plans they are putting in place, then we wouldn't have made this comeback and wouldn't have achieved the results that we have. I wonder if the changing of the guard (all those debuts and players with little to no experience) may have had an impact as the pressure built early in the season without a win.

Having said all of that, if we do get it right and retain our mojo for an extended period of time, then we win the flag cause nobody is good enough to beat us when we are flying, not even GWS. If we don't, then regardless of whether we make the 8, we won't get very far...

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

I don't think it's rigged, I do think we are good enough to win the flag... at our best!

But, and its a big but, we have only produced our best form in short patches this year. Last week and the week before provide to me that we have the skills, structure and most importantly, the will to win regardless of the odds. But some of the football we have been serving up has been nothing short of crap... and I can't really understand why. I haven't heard anything about Reid or Buddy carrying an injury, and yet in the last two games neither of them could kick a goal!?? Early in the season our defence forgot how to defend, and our mids before that seemed to forget what pressure and contested footy was about! We had lots of players out with injuries, and players playing with injuries, but I don't really think that that accounts for it. I don't blame Horse (or the rest of the coaching team) as if there was something seriously wrong with the structures and game plans they are putting in place, then we wouldn't have made this comeback and wouldn't have achieved the results that we have. I wonder if the changing of the guard (all those debuts and players with little to no experience) may have had an impact as the pressure built early in the season without a win.

Having said all of that, if we do get it right and retain our mojo for an extended period of time, then we win the flag cause nobody is good enough to beat us when we are flying, not even GWS. If we don't, then regardless of whether we make the 8, we won't get very far...

I think there's an underestimation of just how difficult it is to be successful at the top level for the length of a game, and for the length of a season, and for the length of an era. You have 22 blokes on each side and are trying to get all of those moving parts operating in a particular way, and to stop all of the moving parts on the other side moving a particular way. It's bloody difficult. And if a couple of parts are missing for whatever reason (like against Hawthorn) you can look downright second rate.

Goalkicking. There's never been a season where games haven't been lost by sides who, for some inexplicable reason, just can't kick straight for goal. I just think it's one of those things that can only be fixed by a psychologist, and probably not mid game. Every player can kick straight from 30m out. I can. Brandon Jack can. Foote can. Towers can. Buddy, for whatever reason, couldn't on Friday. I don't think that issue will be resolved in my lifetime.

You're correct about the changing of the guard. That, coupled with injuries to senior players, is the simple cause of our early season slump. The Heeney and Rampe outs were the two straws that broke the camel's back.

 

[Kirkswan]

I think there's an underestimation of just how difficult it is to be successful at the top level for the length of a game, and for the length of a season, and for the length of an era. You have 22 blokes on each side and are trying to get all of those moving parts operating in a particular way, and to stop all of the moving parts on the other side moving a particular way. It's bloody difficult. And if a couple of parts are missing for whatever reason (like against Hawthorn) you can look downright second rate.

Goalkicking. There's never been a season where games haven't been lost by sides who, for some inexplicable reason, just can't kick straight for goal. I just think it's one of those things that can only be fixed by a psychologist, and probably not mid game. Every player can kick straight from 30m out. I can. Brandon Jack can. Foote can. Towers can. Buddy, for whatever reason, couldn't on Friday. I don't think that issue will be resolved in my lifetime.

You're correct about the changing of the guard. That, coupled with injuries to senior players, is the simple cause of our early season slump. The Heeney and Rampe outs were the two straws that broke the camel's back.

Yes, I totally agree that the difficulty of maintaining top level standards on a footy field is seriously underestimated, and that the main cause is the other 43 moving parts. Add in the umpires, whether the are goal, line or field, and that's 52 other entities that are impacting any single players ability to play at the top level. It's amazing really that we have been top 8 every season bar 3 since 1995! When you stop and think about, that's truly outstanding!!!

I'm not too worried about either Buddy or Reid and their kicking... they will come good, and generally with good wins, the spread of goal kickers means that any one person having the yips isn't a real issue.

I think that it's really important to keep the same team playing together now as much as possible, but can see why they (the coaching team) would want either Jack or McVeigh playing wherever possible. Of the two, at the moment I prefer Jack, as I am not yet convinced that McVeigh is over his soft tissue injuries. But the fact that they don't have the touches they once had, or the visible impact they used too, does not mean that they don't impact in ways unseen, directing structures, on-field coaching etc. I think that anyone who hasn't played a part in the last 7 wins isn't likely to get a look in now for the rest of the season.

Still, I'm incredibly proud of them and believe they will make the 8 once again... and who knows from there!

 

[CheapCharlie]

1. Adelaide
2. GWS
3. Port Adelaide
4. Melbourne
5.Geelong
6. Richmond
7. Sydney
8. West Coast or Bulldogs

 

[kelpie_X]

I assumed we would lose 2 matches - Crows and GWS - between now and finals - finishing 6th. Finals series - we will run through St Kilda, both SA teams then smack GWS in the grand final (with Toby Greene carried off whining in first 2 minutes).

Quite simply, with a relatively healthy list, I rate Swans as one of the best, most complete, all-round talented teams this year (and for years to come). crows, port and GWS do not over'y impress me - they are all very beatable.

There's one big caveat here.

Friday night proved again that Melbourne umpiring will again be our greatest danger. The free kicks gifted to McKernan and Daniher were nothing short of fraud. The free kicks not given to Buddy for pushes, armchops etc are corrupt in the extreme.

Never forget the contrived Bulldogs fairytale of last year. It is our biggest threat.

But we are good enough to win everything this year. A level playing field would be nice - but it won't happen. Go Swans.

I love this guy

 

[kelpie_X]

I don't think it's rigged, I do think we are good enough to win the flag... at our best!

But, and its a big but,

I like big buts and I can not lie

 

[The Swans Blog]

We haven't played at our best but that will happen with an unsettled team that's constantly changing. Throw youth and inexperience into the mix, and a form dip or two, and certainly an injury, then your best is a long way off.

Having won 6 from 7 is a fantastic reflection on the club and the way they've turned it around. We beat Richmond and Essendon playing some of the best footy they've played this season. Richmond should have been clear on top if they had a clue how to finish out games.

 

[DST]

5 wins plus a decent % could get us in the top 8 but we would need to rely on other results.

6 wins and good % and we are in.

7 wins and good % we may jag a home final in first week.

Taking into account expected wins, we need to win 3 of Melbourne, GWS, Geelong, Hawthorn and Adelaide.

It will be tough, but current form suggests we can do it.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app