Late Picks vs. Early Picks

[GmeUP]

After reading in one of the numerous trade threads how a rookie can be delisted after 1 year merely because he was nabbed at pick 40 odd i thought i'd run some past hits and misses from 1-10 and 40-49.

2000

Pick 4 L.Livingston
5 A.McDougall
6 D.Smith
7 L.Angwin
8 D.Motlop

Pick 40 C.Hyde
43 M.Williams
44 J.Hunt

2001

Pick 4 G.Polak
5 X.Clarke
6 A.Sampi
7 D.Hale
9 L.Molan
10 S.Power

Pick 40 G.Ablett
46 J.Waite
47 A.Welsh


2002

Pick 3 J.Brennan?
4 T.Walsh
8 L.Brennan
10 J.Laycock

Pick 40 J.Watson
45 K.Simpson
46 L.Fisher



​

 

[Daytripper]

2001

Pick 4 G.Polak
5 X.Clarke
6 A.Sampi
7 D.Hale
9 L.Molan
10 S.Power

Pick 40 G.Ablett
46 J.Waite
47 A.Welsh

​

I always find it amusing when people call the 2001 draft a 'superdraft'. It seems to be one of those cases where if you repeat it often enough, people will believe it to be true.

From the top 10, Judd, Hodge and Bartel are great players.
However Ball is now a tagger and the rest are just average to terrible.

 

[GmeUP]

I don't think i'd call Ball a tagger, just a guy whose impact is reduced due to severe injuries, and guys like dal Santo are a bit more than average. In fact St.Kilda basically built their core group from the '00 & '01 draft.

 

[jodo27]

I am not sure what you are trying to say with this ? half the picks in the 40s that you are citing are F/S picks. They may well have been taken much earlier.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Smart picks are the most crucial. Look at West Coast..Kerr was in the 60's..priddis was at 16, etc. Sampi was a dud but he was rated very highly before the draft.

 

[daveyboy3]

Smart picks are the most crucial. Look at West Coast..Kerr was in the 60's..priddis was at 16, etc. Sampi was a dud but he was rated very highly before the draft.

Kerr was around the 17 mark not the 60's

 

[KING-JAMES]

Kerr was around the 17 mark not the 60's

Yes your right, 1 pick before James Davies I believe. And On Priddis i don’t no where you get pick 16 from unless your talking rookie draft, as he was a rookie selection.

While you can call the 2001 draft not a superdraft the raw talent and depth it possessed was that of a 'superdraft'. Sure there are some duds looking back at it. But doesn’t the player’s application influence that as well? Graham Polak has moved to Richmond this season and has been one of the shining lights for them in a dismal season. He has a ton of talent and just needed the application to produce it. He may still prove to be worthy of that selection #4. Ashley Sampi is also extremely talented, but has let his attitude get the better of him. It’s a shame really, as he had the raw talent to be a very good player at AFL level.

Every draft has it duds, and the 2001 certainly has its share but it also had a lot of great players to come out of it. These players are all from the 2001 draft. Hodge, Ball, Judd, Bartel, Dal Santo, Reilly, Ladson, Kelly, Gram, Maguire, Steve Johnson, C.Brown, Rodan, Mitchell, Montanga, A. Hansen, Ablett jr, Waite, Welsh, Miller, Medhurst, Swan, Schnieder, D.White, Hyde and B.Harris. That crop of players makes up for the dud picks, and at least makes the 2001 a good one, even if it wasn’t a 'superdraft'. I'm pretty sure there are some very handy names that were passed up on the day as well. Can’t find a 2001 rookie list though.

In my opinion there is no real argument as to early picks being overrated or late picks being just as good, as its really just a matter of how good you are at picking talent. Obviously when you have a high pick you have more to choose from and will probably have a higher strike rate. If you use your picks well you can get talent anywhere in the draft. During a patch in Essendon's history we obviously didn’t.

 

[BluesRules]

Your wrong with motlop.

 

[Houli Class1]

I don't think i'd call Ball a tagger, just a guy whose impact is reduced due to severe injuries, and guys like dal Santo are a bit more than average. In fact St.Kilda basically built their core group from the '00 & '01 draft.

He can be a gr8 player but his groin n ostetis pubis is restrictin him

 

[Houli Class1]

I always find it amusing when people call the 2001 draft a 'superdraft'. It seems to be one of those cases where if you repeat it often enough, people will believe it to be true.

From the top 10, Judd, Hodge and Bartel are great players.
However Ball is now a tagger and the rest are just average to terrible.

Dont forget gary ablett even though he was father son

 

[RED AND BLACK SOLDIER]

Players picked up in the 2001 rookie draft (i think)were Ben Rutten, Max Rooke, Marty Mattner, Bret Thornton, Sandilands, Copeland, Matthew Boyd and Q.Lynch i think? Some of them are probably wrong so feel free to correct me.

 

[monty1104]

After reading in one of the numerous trade threads how a rookie can be delisted after 1 year merely because he was nabbed at pick 40 odd i thought i'd run some past hits and misses from 1-10 and 40-49.

2000

Pick 4 L.Livingston
5 A.McDougall
6 D.Smith
7 L.Angwin
8 D.Motlop

Pick 40 C.Hyde
43 M.Williams
44 J.Hunt

2001

Pick 4 G.Polak
5 X.Clarke
6 A.Sampi
7 D.Hale
9 L.Molan
10 S.Power

Pick 40 G.Ablett
46 J.Waite
47 A.Welsh


2002

Pick 3 J.Brennan?
4 T.Walsh
8 L.Brennan
10 J.Laycock

Pick 40 J.Watson
45 K.Simpson
46 L.Fisher



​

Its unfair to include the bolded players as good "late" picks. They were all father son selections and all could have gone earlier otherwise.

 

[GmeUP]

I am not sure what you are trying to say with this ? half the picks in the 40s that you are citing are F/S picks. They may well have been taken much earlier.

Just pointing out that there as many hits in the 40s as there are misses in the early picks as someone named that as a reason to trade one of our first year players earlier.

If your not happy with the f/s selections how about these?

2002 draft

pick 72 B.Fisher
64 N.Malceski
55 R.Crowley
53 A.Selwood
51 T.Boyle

That's just one draft where players picked over #50 are performing well and establishing their own roles at their clubs.
​

 

[monty1104]

Still, you are isolating players that have become good. There are players in every section of the draft that have been both good and bad. But the players that dont make it that were drafted early get all the attention, just as players that are drafted late and do make it are given recognition. But generally, players that are picked early do become good players, and the percentage of players that make it drops as you go down the draft order.

 

[GmeUP]

I'm not isolating players that have come good. My first post included top picks who were duds or on the verge of it along with good pickups from further down the order. This was designed to show that whilst the top few (Hodge, Ball, Judd) may have been great their are players at the other end of the draft who have still carved out handy careers without necessarily becoming star names of the comp, and other top picks who never made it to their expected heights.

 

[monty1104]

But you never mentioned the top picked players who played well, or the bottom drafted players who eventuated to nothing. As an example, have a look at this list.

2000:

Pick 1: Reiwoldt
2: Koschitzke
3. Didak
9: Kayne Pettifer
10: Jordan McMahon

42: Daniel Pratt
45: Trent Carrol
46: Sean O'Keefe
47: Jordan Bannister
48: Matthew Smith


2001 Draft
Pick1: Hodge
2: Ball
3: Judd
8: Bartel

41: Henry Playfair
42: Kieran McGuinness
43: Mark McGough
44: Ben Finnin
45: Nathan Clarke
49: Josh Houlihan

2002 Draft:
Pick 1: Goddard
2: Wells
6: Salopek
7: Mackie
9. McIntosh

41: Tim Fleming
43: Cam Cloke
44: Anthony Corrie
47: Bill Nichols
48: Greg Edgcumbe
49: Cameron Wight


You see, you can make the draft suit any arguement you want to make really. Yo just picked the duds from the top 10 and the good players from 40-49. I did the opposite. It doesnt make either list corect, it just proves what a lottery the draft can be.

 

[Darealrath]

Bit harsh on Pratt. Getting a game every week for a side who is 3rd.

 

[monty1104]

Drafted in 2000 and only recently he is getting a regular game. What happened in his other 6 years?

 

[Darealrath]

Drafted in 2000 and only recently he is getting a regular game. What happened in his other 6 years?

He's been getting a regular game since 2005 when he moved to the Roos. Was pretty hard to get into the lions team in their grand final years.