Analysis Making the Top 4 and building to a flag. 4TH is IRRELEVANT, MAKE IT TOP 3

[MrChow]

comparing to the other teams in the 8 this year.

I feel that our half backs/midfield are too scared to run in waves to get the overlap, and support. We need this in our game. It's like they are not confident in our mids to win the 50/50s. Or are they not fast enough?

 

[tribey]

comparing to the other teams in the 8 this year.

I feel that our half backs/midfield are too scared to run in waves to get the overlap, and support. We need this in our game. It's like they are not confident in our mids to win the 50/50s. Or are they not fast enough?

Riley Bonner pulling out that would-be matchwinning burst which Boak and Impey botched was scintillating and completely unexpected. Made even his own teammates look like witches hats, let alone the visibly horrified WCE guys he was leaving in his dust.

Quick, decisive, smart, damaging. All attributes the team has lacked for too long.

May he keep improving for everyone's sake.

 

[TeeKray]

Riley Bonner pulling out that would-be matchwinning burst which Boak and Impey botched was scintillating and completely unexpected. Made even his own teammates look like witches hats, let alone the visibly horrified WCE guys he was leaving in his dust.

Quick, decisive, smart, damaging. All attributes the team has lacked for too long.

May he keep improving for everyone's sake.

Yeah, where the hell did that come from?

What was his development curve like in the SANFL this year? He looked nothing like the circa 2011 Jasper Pittard clone that was running around in the JLT games.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Riley Bonner pulling out that would-be matchwinning burst which Boak and Impey botched was scintillating and completely unexpected. Made even his own teammates look like witches hats, let alone the visibly horrified WCE guys he was leaving in his dust.

Quick, decisive, smart, damaging. All attributes the team has lacked for too long.

May he keep improving for everyone's sake.

Was that the bit of play just inside the centre square near the CHB line, that he zig zagged his way thru 3 WCE players in the 4th quarter kicking to the southern end?

 

[El_Scorcho]

comparing to the other teams in the 8 this year.

I feel that our half backs/midfield are too scared to run in waves to get the overlap, and support. We need this in our game. It's like they are not confident in our mids to win the 50/50s. Or are they not fast enough?

Again, as Janus says, up to this point this is because they need to be in a position to defend if the ball is turned over. Defending comes first and support running for the ball carrier comes second.

It's why the likes of an in-form Pittard, Polec, Boak and Bonner going forward are so important to our side, because our game plan is going to rely on a bit of solo line breaking effort from time to time.

I'm really hoping this year has been spent effectively as a wax on wax off/paint the fence/sand the floor at Mr Miyagi's house "making defence automatic" season, and next season we're going to unleash a little bit on the attacking end.

 

[Us against the rest]

Forwards like this.

 

[Andre]

Riley Bonner pulling out that would-be matchwinning burst which Boak and Impey botched was scintillating and completely unexpected. Made even his own teammates look like witches hats, let alone the visibly horrified WCE guys he was leaving in his dust.

Quick, decisive, smart, damaging. All attributes the team has lacked for too long.

May he keep improving for everyone's sake.

If Broadbent replaces Bonner start of next season I'll pitch in some for the truck of manure to be dumped on Kens car.

 

[Power Girl]

If Broadbent replaces Bonner start of next season I'll pitch in some for the truck of manure to be dumped on Kens car.

Car? I was waiting for some pitchfork action.

 

[yepits2020]

If Broadbent replaces Bonner start of next season I'll pitch in some for the truck of manure to be dumped on Kens car.

A real dilemma for our back seven.

Howard is our tall lock. We need another. 195 cm plus tall. I wish Westhoff would do it for team balance.

Hartlett, Houston, Pittard, Jonas, Clurey are the other five.

Then we have Lienert at 193 cm, who is the closest we have to Houston in kicking ability and is coming along nicely.

That leaves Bonner, Broadbent, Impey and possibly Trengove out in the cold.

I think Broadbent has a problem. I was hoping for big strides from Bonner in 2017. I think 2018 will be his year if we can find a spot for him. Could be the wing.

 

[El_Scorcho]

A real dilemma for our back seven.

Howard is our tall lock. We need another. 195 cm plus tall. I wish Westhoff would do it for team balance.

Hartlett, Houston, Pittard, Jonas, Clurey are the other five.

Then we have Lienert at 193 cm, who is the closest we have to Houston in kicking ability and is coming along nicely.

That leaves Bonner, Broadbent, Impey and possibly Trengove out in the cold.

I think Broadbent has a problem. I was hoping for big strides from Bonner in 2017. I think 2018 will be his year if we can find a spot for him. Could be the wing.

Hombsch

edit: Next in line as a tall would be Austin I guess.

 

[yepits2020]

Hombsch

edit: Next in line as a tall would be Austin I guess.

Yeah, and I forgot about Hombsch one of my favourites. Embarrassed. Austin seems out of sorts right now.

 

[jack_black16]

A real dilemma for our back seven.

Howard is our tall lock. We need another. 195 cm plus tall. I wish Westhoff would do it for team balance.

Hartlett, Houston, Pittard, Jonas, Clurey are the other five.

Then we have Lienert at 193 cm, who is the closest we have to Houston in kicking ability and is coming along nicely.

That leaves Bonner, Broadbent, Impey and possibly Trengove out in the cold.

I think Broadbent has a problem. I was hoping for big strides from Bonner in 2017. I think 2018 will be his year if we can find a spot for him. Could be the wing.

Westoff is too skinny and weak to be a permanent key back. It's also why he isn't a KPF.

 

[Andre]

Car? I was waiting for some pitchfork action.

You can go all 1950's teacher and repeatedly whack Ken over the knuckles with a ruler until he promises to behave

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Since 2014 I have played around with list demographics to try to work out where the spread of players should be in 3 year age brackets and assuming most players over 27 have played 120+ games ( ie Eddy is a rarity) and that most premiership sides have 12 to 13 100+ gamers and have 1, 2 or 3 on the list who dont make the GF because of injury or form. We will soon find out if last year was an aberration by the Bulldogs or its become the new norm. Its also why I reckon if GWS are to have a dynasty, as I have written previously, you wont see it until years 8 thru to 13 of their existence.

I'm not sure if I should stick this in here or in a list management thread but I will put it in here for now. Below is my guess for the spread across a list of age demographics in 3 year brackets and across positions.

We have failed in the past from having too many gaps in our age profile and experience. To go 2 age brackets with nobody in them is piss poor list management IMO. The exception of course is utilities you dont need lots of them but a couple are good. If you have 2 consecutive zeros for a position it means that over 6 year of age you don't have someone who can fill that position unless you trade some in at the end of the season. I have put players age as at 31st of March each year and one or two who are born in April have been thrown into the older bracket.

Now my preferred list demographics spread below is if you think you are close to a flag, and each year will vary a bit as you delist players and bring new ones in. Now I can see some posters shaking their heads at having 5 x 30+ year olds, but that's probably as tribey has written about the last couple of days, we seem to get multiple injuries to so many stars who barely play past 30 or 31. In 2004 on GF day we had 4 x 30+ year olds and 7 x 27-29 year olds and in the squad who didn't play Primus 29, Francou 30, Poulton 27 and 8 x 24-26 year olds.

Premiership squads age at start of year and Flag team
2012 Syd 5 x 30+ players and 9 x 27-29 year olds.
GF day 5 x 30+, 5 x 27-29, 6 x 24-26 and 2 x 300+ games, 2 x 200-299 games 4 x 150-199 games 3 x 100-149 games 7 x 50-99 games 4 less than 50 games

2013 Haw 5 x 30+ players and 6 x 27-29 year olds
GF day 4 x 30+, 5 x 27-29, 10 x 24-26 and 5 x 200-299 games 6 x 150-199 games 2 x 100-149 games 6 x 50-99 games 3 less than 50 games

2014 Haw 6 x 30+ players and 4 x 27-29 year olds
GF day 6 x 30+, 3 x 27-29, 7 x 24-26 and 7 x 200-299 games 2 x 150-199 games 3 x 100-149 games 8 x 50-99 games 2 less than 50 game

2015 Haw 6 x 30+ players and 9 x 27-29 year olds.
GF day 6 x 30+, 6 x 27-29, 8 x 24-26 and 4 x 250-299 games, 4 x 200-249 games 3 x 150-199 games 8 x 100-149 games 3 x 50-99 games 0 less than 50 games

2016 WB. 5 x 30+ players and 5 x 27-29 year olds
GF day 3 x 30+, 4 x 27-29, 2 x 24-26 and 2 x 200-299 games 1 x 150-199 games 3 x 100-149 games 7 x 50-99 games 9 less than 50 games




Blue are 2017 rookie players at the start of the season before Rd 1 elevations. Positions are where players spent 2017 playing rather than what they were drafted to play.

 

[MrChow]

Another thought is that conversion is a big issue- yet Houston, Hartlett and Doogs are now defenders. If our better kicks were forwards....?? Thoughts? Maybe Houston goes forward, with the emergence of Bonner

 

[mic59]

If Broadbent replaces Bonner start of next season I'll pitch in some for the truck of manure to be dumped on Kens car.

If Broadbent is back from injury and in form next year I would really like to see someone like him in the forward line. Having players with big kicks open up the game on the back lines is great but unless everyone else plays well too the advantage is lost. Whereas a well-placed long kick on the forward line can open up a shot on goal with that one kick.

 

[SureBuddy]

There is huge improvement in this list. So many players that are ready to take it to the next level.

Doogs after a full preseason?! flipping watch out!
Bonner, Howard, Clurey, Houston, SPP, Atley, Drew and Frampton. What about all these lads with another pre season? Watch out!

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Normal transmission has resumed ladies and gentlemen.

Finish top 4 and you are likely to get to the Preliminary Final. Teams have worked out how to deal with the bye.

 

[shewho]

Normal transmission has resumed ladies and gentlemen.

Finish top 4 and you are likely to get to the Preliminary Final. Teams have worked out how to deal with the bye.

It's the second bye that's the challenge, not the first. Geelong and GWS with an advantage going into next week.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

It's the second bye that's the challenge, not the first. Geelong and GWS with an advantage going into next week.

No top 4 side went out in straight sets. Further confirms best chance to win the flag is finish top 4 win the QF and get a home PF.

 

[Chrizzt]

It's the second bye that's the challenge, not the first. Geelong and GWS with an advantage going into next week.

We will have to see how it pans out obviously, but it's a tough argument.

If both Richmond and crows make the Gf we can relatively safely say it's not an issue. If Geelong and GWS make the GF it's still too small a sample size to make conclusions about (although all and sundry in the media will attempt to anyway).

Clubs struggled a little post bye when it was introduced as a permanent rotating bye week, but they've figured how to cope with it now. It'll be no different to this current set up. I'd much rather finish top 2 - particularly as a non-Vic team who get a more pronounced home ground advantage (although ironically enough Port seem to be the exception to that)

 

[Power Raid]

Normal transmission has resumed ladies and gentlemen.

Finish top 4 and you are likely to get to the Preliminary Final. Teams have worked out how to deal with the bye.

I wonder who wins next week. Teams that have played one game in 25 days or those that have played two in a row?

 

[Schulzenfest]

No top 4 side went out in straight sets. Further confirms best chance to win the flag is finish top 4 win the QF and get a home PF.

Based on?

Last year both teams who won a QF missed the Grand Final. This year it's still up in the air. As we speak there are still precisely zero teams since the bye was introduced who have booked a spot in the Grand Final after winning a qualifying final. So I'm not sure what's happened to suddenly make you come out and post that?

 

[noffle]

No top 4 side went out in straight sets. Further confirms best chance to win the flag is finish top 4 win the QF and get a home PF.

If you assume all finals games are 50-50 then you would have a 3-in-8 chance of making the grand final from top four and 1-in-8 chance from 5-8. The reason you don't see 5-8 so much though is that top 4 teams are generally stronger so the games aren't 50-50. Add in home ground advantage and you swing it towards the top 4 a bit more.

I think we'll see more sides 5-8 doing well in years to come. Increased salary cap, 18 teams and free agency have meant the playing field is a lot more even and the teams 5-8 are stronger.

 

[1954]

Forwards like this.

Lockwood could have been anything, him and Tredrea as the key forwards would have been sensational.