Melb Cup form talk 9pm Mon

[sethlad]

Anyone who's up for a form discussion on the 24 MC runners chances,lets get together here around 9pm Monday night (Melb time)

Hopefully it could steer us in the right direction
Almost all welcome

So if youre around,come & have your say on the Great Race

seth

 

[Dingster]

Great idea Seth. I'm up for it. Yet to see the all important barrier draw.

 

[sethlad]

I heard the Yeats camp wanted to draw outside 10.
Only connections who would have been unhappy with barrier 4

seth

 

[roostersgal4eva]

thats a good idea seth

I can get some good tips (cause im not that good at it)

 

[sethlad]

Well,everyones got an opinion on the Cup

See ya here

seth

 

[angus6]

i have posted the full barrier draw in another thread named m/cup barrier draw

 

[sethlad]

Cheers angus6

seth

 

[Dingster]

What was your idea Seth? Run through the field discussing the chances of each horse and a final analysis or did you have something else in mind?

 

[sethlad]

Yeh,just horse by horse,can it win,why or why not etc
Then everyone gives their quinella & best roughie?

Good way to learn about each one,Im sure everyone knows various runners better than others.

At least then theres no excuse for not finding the winner.

Im going to the Call of the Card Monday so will have the official prices & idea of where the $$$$ were.

seth

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Good idea Seth, I should be around.
Might have a lager or two while Im at it, might be half cut by Maybe Better.

 

[sethlad]

Me too,Call of the Card's a massive day,12 o'clock start.
Never miss it,great start to Cup week

seth

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

In that case is this a good idea?
Will we be finished by the 2 year old on Tuesday.

 

[sethlad]

Should be ok,theres about 5 doubtful,might be smallest Cup field for a while.

 

[Ginola]

Should be ok,theres about 5 doubtful,might be smallest Cup field for a while.

Seth,

Am i welcome???

 

[roostersgal4eva]

I would like to start early with a silly question

which is the best barrier to be - my guess are the middle barriers but Im not sure

 

[Dingster]

I would like to start early with a silly question

which is the best barrier to be - my guess are the middle barriers but Im not sure

I think around 7-9 is ideal, so Tawqeet's connections will be very happy. Yeats drew 4 which is fine by me.

I noticed that Maybe Better won from 20 and Tuesday Joy from 19 in a couple of the distance races today, so it might be more where you settle and how the race is run if the track performs the same way on Tuesday.

 

[Angus1]

Good idea Seth, I should be around.
Might have a lager or two while Im at it, might be half cut by Maybe Better.

Sounds like a fine idea Bobby. I might have one with ya mate.

 

[Iknowyouloveme]

No Horse Barrier
1 YEATS (IRE) 4

Awesome international horse and was always going to be a great chance, will probably come into favouritsm imo when the race is about to start. Awesome barrier and wouldn't be suprised if it won. Top Quality horse.

2 DELTA BLUES (JPN) 11

Run in CC was magnificent, wouldn't get on it atm as it is a little shorter than it should be. Will get the distance well. It's a great stayer and again, will go close. Each/Way Bet.

3 RAILINGS 2

**** form coming in, another fail today, will be suprised if it gets even close. Getting $41 for Railings is terrible. Should drift past $50.

4 TAWQEET (USA) 9
The more i think of it the more i think it will be a good chance, at first I was thinking nah no chance. But it's a horse of great class and there is no denying it's great run.

5 GEORDIELAND (FR) 10

Another international horse and another good chance. Will be in top 8 favortism come race time and deserves to be. Wind's up well and Flemington will suit. Could get a place.

6 HEADTURNER 19

God awful run today, not a chance imo. If you had've gotten fixed odds on it you'd be dissapointed. Barrier 19 will also hurt. If it gets in top 6, I will be very suprised.

7 SHORT PAUSE (GB) 17

Don't no much about it but from what I have heard, no chance whats'o'ever. It's at 300-1 and apparnatley thats where it deserves to be.

8 ACTIVATION 22

Activation is a group 2 horse won't get distance, had the same chance in the CC that Tawqeet got but decided not to take it. It couldn't go. Especially on such a wide barier.

9 LAND 'N STARS 6

Can only base what I know on one run that I have seen where it came in as an emerg and from what I saw, i wouldn't be getting on this one too quickly Wink - 100-1 odds genorous.

10 MAHTOUM 7

Got no idea - its at $201.

11 ON A JEUNE 15

Last years second place getter a real chance and it's odds don't do it justice. Get on this horse for the place, it can get distance and have a bit of nift too him. Place Bet.

12 POP ROCK (JPN) 12

Similar Horse to Eye Popper imo but probably got a bit more class to him. 4th or 5th in CC and looked well. Should get distance well enough, but I am not convinced.

13 ZIPPING 20

No chance at getting the distance, and just gets nothing from me at all. Not an awesome horse and just not quality enough to win a race of this caiber.

14 DIZELLE 21

A horse that seems to just get the job done and probably not as classy as the top 6 horses in this one but I wouldn't count it out. You can get about $20 for it atm and if you can get around $4-6 for the place i'd get on it. Place Bet.

15 ICE CHARIOT 1

Drawn barrier one may help. It needs all the help it can get. $201.
16 KERRY O'REILLY (NZ) 5

17 ZABEAT (NZ) 16

Another NZ stayer that has come to the Cup. Don't no much about it except it isn't much of a chance Wink.

18 ART SUCCESS (NZ) 13

Yet again, a NZ stayer. 50-1 odds are a bit argy-bargy. It should be back at around 150-1 for mine. I'd give you 10000-1 if you'd like. No chance in hell.

19 DEMERGER 23

I know the odds say he is no chance, but he is my roughie of the cup. He's at $151 and I have chucked on $1 for the win and $3 for the place. It's a kind of horse that can suprise and just likes it a bit physical, if it gets the right run and can handle to barrier okay. I think he's a chance.

20 GLISTENING (GB) 24

Don't know much. Sorry.

21 MANDELA (NZ) 14

NZ horses feauture promanetly and also feature a lot at the bottom of the odds .

22 DOLPHIN JO 18

****ty barrier, needed barrier 6-9 to be any chance. Likes to be in the middle of the field and then to just move up slowly. Can't see it getting close.

23 MAYBE BETTER 3

Maybe Better a good chance imo, looks good and got 2.5 easily. Backing up will be hard but has been on ice all week apparnley. It's a chance. E/way bet.

24 EFFICIENT (NZ) 8

Efficient won't get there, may run top 8 will be hard to back up and still under-devolped. Will probably run though. A bit immature and although it's run today was ****en sensational i doubt there will be that much room to do that on Tuesday.

My early bets

Yeats - Win
Demerger - A bit each way
Maybe Better - e/way
Delta Blues - e/way
Tawqeet - e/way
On a Jenune - e/way.

1st - Yeats
2nd - Demerger
3rd - On a Jenune
4th - Tawqeet

 

[Delidio]

No Horse Barrier

8 ACTIVATION 22

Activation is a group 2 horse won't get distance, had the same chance in the CC that Tawqeet got but decided not to take it. It couldn't go. Especially on such a wide barier.

the reason why activation wasnt up with tawqeet was that he had to come wide, whilst tawqeet was able to stay reasonanbly close to the rail. was coming hard at tawqeet in the metrop

 

[sethlad]

Just bumping this,if youre around tomorrow night, join in.
The more the merrier

seth

 

[a_peterson05]

8 ACTIVATION 22

Activation is a group 2 horse won't get distance, had the same chance in the CC that Tawqeet got but decided not to take it. It couldn't go. Especially on such a wide barier.


Thats a fair statement to make. Group 2 horse? I am not going to go out on a limb here but i think this horse is a big chance and think the barrier wont be a factor if he settles of the fence in a good spot early.

 

[bulletproof]

Don't totally disagree with the Group 2 assesment of Activation but it might have been a bit unlucky in the metrop and not suited at Caulfield when it got out of its ground. Beaten half a length in what i thought was a strange finish, none of them seemed to want to win it and the winner Tawqeet just seem to get the luck. I think you need winning form to win a Melbourne Cup but 20-1 is a tempting price and i might back it yet. Without a genuine Australian Wfa horse (a Ethereal, Makybe, Jeune, Saintly etc) in the race a handicapper or a international could win it this year.

 

[go fullta]

yeats, delta blues, tawqeet,pop rock, and maybe better are the only chances to win the race i believe.
everyother horse in the race cant win!!

best barrier is 1-10, saving ground is vital in this race

 

[HeLMie]

yeats, delta blues, tawqeet,pop rock, and maybe better are the only chances to win the race i believe.
everyother horse in the race cant win!!

best barrier is 1-10, saving ground is vital in this race

I agree with your five, but would like to add Activation its been following tawqeet and also on a juene (pathetic prep, but only gains 2 KG form last years cup). And ill also add Efficient, i dont think he is up to it just yet, but horse racing is a fairytale sport.

 

[The Dustbin]

Barrier 4 is a disadvantage to Yeats, not a advantage. Talk more about this tonight. I'll check in around 9pm...