Melbourne Demons v Port Adelaide- Game Day Thread 16/7/2011

[Wonaeamirri33]

vs

WHERE AND WHEN: TIO Stadium, Saturday 16 July, 8.10pm
HEAD TO HEAD: Melbourne 10 wins, Port Adelaide 12 wins
LAST TIME: Port Adelaide 17.10 (112) d Melbourne 11.17 (83), round 21, 2010, at AAMI Stadium
FORM: Melbourne: LWWLB Port Adelaide: BLLLL

SUMMARY:

Melbourne had their second bye on the weekend and entered the break after a disappointing 64-point loss to the Western Bulldogs. Had the Demons beaten the Dogs, they would have consolidated their position in the top eight with three consecutive wins after notching victories against Fremantle and Richmond.

Instead, the loss - and other results in round 16 - has seen them slip to 10th on the ladder, behind the Dogs, and one game behind eighth-placed Essendon.

Saturday's match is the second of two Darwin home games the Demons secured as part of the 2009 agreement struck between the Northern Territory Government and the AFL that also included Port Adelaide, Richmond and the Bulldogs. The last time the Demons played at TIO Stadium was against the Power in round nine last year; a match they won by one point.

Meanwhile, the Power haven't fared well this year with just two wins, but their most recent victory was in Darwin in round 10 against the Tigers. It was the club's first win at the Top End venue in five starts, having lost to the Bulldogs three times and the Demons once since 2006.

On Sunday afternoon, the Power were easily overrun by St Kilda in greasy conditions at AAMI Stadium, which equalled their fifth loss since the 15-point win against Richmond. Chad Cornes returned to the field for his first game since round six and won his battle with Sam Fisher, while Hamish Hartlett was a positive for the home side with 32 touches on what was otherwise a bleak afternoon.

QUESTION MARKS:

The Demons, desperate to avoid the inability to adjust to the heat of the Top End the Tigers displayed in late May, have traveled up early and got two training sessions in at the venue before tonight's match. Will that make a difference?

While the Power aren't actually playing home games in the Territory, they appear there more than any other team. Their recent record might not show that as a positive, but surely their experience at TIO Stadium and in adapting to the conditions must become a factor at some point. 


Will the Demons' trip north and potential reunion with absent forward Aussie Wonaeamirri be beneficial in luring the homesick Tiwi Islander back to the club? The signs aren't good in this regard, but I still hope for some sort of good news.

Obviously Aussie has been home in the Top End since May, after requesting a leave of absence to deal with the loss of his father Matthew and mentor Maurice Rioli late last year.

PREDICTION:

Melbourne by 18 points.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

WALKING WOUNDED:

Hometown favourite Aaron Davey has come up short in a spirited bid to play in front of family and friends following a knee injury. Coach Dean Bailey rated Davey a 50-50 shot of playing early in the week, but the general feeling was if the game wasn't in Darwin, he would be no chance anyway.

Luke Tapscott has played the last two matches in the VFL to prove he is over a hamstring injury, and is back in the team today. Joel Macdonald will need to overcome a fitness test on the knee that saw him miss the loss to the Bulldogs. Rohan Bail (knee, 3-4 weeks), Michael Newton (foot, 4 weeks) and Neville Jetta (hand, 2 weeks) are making steady progress with their rehabilitation, while Jack Grimes and Jake Spencer are the two season-ending injuries.

Port Adelaide's veteran ruckman Dean Brogan remains a week-to-week proposition with that Achilles complaint and hamstring soreness. A trip up to Darwin would not have been ideal, so he finds himself staying at home. Fellow big man Jackson Trengove bruised his forearm in the loss to St Kilda, but is in the team for this match.

Simon Phillips is working his way back after missing the Saints match with a shoulder injury. The Power's defensive stocks have been depleted by the hip flexor injury to Alipate Carlile (four weeks), while emerging youngster Jasper Pittard (hamstring) is also out for a month. Paul Stewart (shoulder) won't be back this season, while their other injuries are no concern for the senior side.

FORM:

Demons' Last Five:

Round 15: Loss, 8.15 (63) - 19.13 (127) v Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium
Round 14: Win, 17.16 (118) - 13.13 (91) v Tigers, MCG
Round 13: Win, 22.17 (149) - 8.12 (60) v Dockers, MCG
Round 12: Loss, 6.5 (41) - 19.15 (129) v Pies, MCG
Round 11: Win, 15.11 (101) - 10.8 (68) v Bombers, MCG

Power's Last Five:

Round 16: Loss, 8.5 (53) - 17.7 (109) v Saints, AAMI Stadium
Round 15: Loss, 13.10 (88) - 15.9 (99) v Lions, Gabba
Round 14: Loss, 14.7 (91) - 21.10 (136) v Kangaroos, AAMI Stadium
Round 13: Loss, 13.10 (88) - 15.20 (110) v Eagles, Patersons Stadium
Round 11: Loss, 7.7 (49) - 16.15 (111) v Blues, AAMI Stadium

The Demons' rollercoaster ride hasn't looked like abating. Melbourne opened the past five weeks with a stirring win over Essendon, just when their credentials were being challenged following that insipid Round 10 loss to Carlton. Next came the Queen's Birthday disaster against Collingwood where the Demons were restricted to just six goals and were on the receiving end of an 88-point demolition.

Less than a week later it was Melbourne doing the belting, thumping an ordinary Fremantle combination by 89 points, the Demons then followed that up with a 27-point triumph over Richmond at the MCG in Round 14. But any hopes of three wins on the trot were squashed when the Western Bulldogs romped to a 64-point triumph at Etihad Stadium.

It's been a tough past five weeks for the Power. Fremantle belted Port at home by 52 points in Round 9 before Carlton scored a 62-point victory at AAMI Stadium two rounds later. They ventured to Perth for a 22-point defeat against West Coast before suffering their seventh loss from eight home matches this season to North by 41 points.

The closest the Power got to winning during that period was against Brisbane Lions when they led at three-quarter time, but went down by 11 points. There wasn't much to write home about in last weekend's 56-point drubbing from St Kilda. Lucky the Power kicked four goals in the final quarter to add some respectability to the scoreboard.

WHO'S HOT:

Jordie McKenzie- In just his third season in the AFL, 21-year-old McKenzie has emerged as one of Melbourne's prime midfield movers. A handball merchant in the mould of a young Jobe Watson, in seven games this season, McKenzie's haul of 151 possessions can be broken down to 38 kicks and 113 handballs.

McKenzie had 26 possessions (nine kicks, 17 handballs) to be one of the Demons best in that loss against Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium, just a fortnight after his 28 touch (two kicks, 26 handballs) effort in the win over Fremantle.

Hamish Hartlett - Season 2011 has been a mighty difficult one for the Power and it will get all the more harder when Hartlett goes in for shoulder surgery after this weekend. The 20-year-old has only 28 games to his credit, but is already carrying a great burden in a Port midfield desperate for some star power.

Hartlett found the footy 32 times in last weekend's loss to the Saints, surpassing his previous best of 29 earlier this season. The chance to come up against some contemporaries in Scully and Trengove may well be the spur for Hartlett to lead Port to a rare victory.

WE THINK:

The big question is whether Melbourne will make the same mistake Richmond did in Darwin? The answer - no. Unlike the Tigers, the Demons have been to Darwin before and tasted success in this corresponding game last season by a point.

At that stage, both sides were at a similar level on the AFL ladder, but in the period since, Melbourne have improved slightly, while Port Adelaide have gone downhill. The Demons need to overcome the bye hoodoo and will have the benefit of fielding at least one, if not two Territorians in the line-up, depending if Aaron Davey overcomes his knee injury.

Port Adelaide may also have two local boys in the side, with Tom Logan a certain starter and Daniel Motlop pressing for a recall after some solid SANFL form at North Adelaide.

But Melbourne will win and do it fairly comfortably, not only re-affirming their ability to put the foot on the throat of the league's battlers, but add another up on the rollercoaster.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Team lineups:

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

5 comparative stats:

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Ladder position
Melbourne: 10th
Port Adelaide: 16th

Head-to-head
Played: 22
Melbourne: 10 wins
Port Adelaide: 12 wins
Drawn: 0

At this ground:
Played: 1
Melbourne: 1 win
Port Adelaide: 0 wins
Drawn: 0

Coach v coach
Dean Bailey: 1
Matthew Primus: 1
Drawn: 0

Injury list:

Melbourne:

Rohan Bail (knee) - 2 weeks, Aaron Davey (knee) - 4 weeks, Jack Fitzpatrick (ankle) - 4-6 weeks, Colin Garland (jarred ankle) - test, Jack Grimes (foot) - season, Mark Jamar (knee) - test, Neville Jetta (hand) - 2 weeks, Michael Newton (foot) - 4 weeks, Jake Spencer (knee) - season
Luke Tapscott (hamstring) - 1 week

Port Adelaide:

Dean Brogan (achilles) - test, Alipate Carlile (hip) - 5 weeks, Jarrad Irons ( shoulder) - season, Tom Jonas (hand tendon) - 4 weeks, Ben Newton (groin) - 3 weeks, Simon Phillips (shoulder) - season, Jackson Trengove (bruised forearm) - test, Justin Westhoff (turf toe)- 3 weeks

Summary

Placed six positions above Port Adelaide on the ladder, this is a game the Demons need to win. With Tapscott back from injury and regular players being fresh from the bye, the Demons are well positioned to take the four points.
Although officially a Melbourne home game, playing on an unfamiliar turf of TIO Stadium, Darwin, will ensure no home ground advantage, making for an interesting contest.

Players to watch:

Melbourne: Ricky Petterd

After last game's flying mark and Mark of the Week nomination, Petterd's current form cannot be disputed. In the past weeks, Ricky has played an integral part in Melbourne's forward line, while increasing his defensive pressure. Consequently, Ricky currently ranks 8th in tackle count. Originally hailing from the Gold Coast, the warm conditions of Darwin will favour Ricky's style of play.

Port Adelaide: Hamish Hartlett

Hartlett has been a valuable inclusion for the Power this season. Despite an injury ridden 2010 and preseason, Hartlett has truly proven himself as a valuable backman, ranking highly in the Club’s leader boards for marks, tackles, kicks and handballs. Despite missing the first two rounds of the year, the high draft pick has played consistently each week and will no doubt have a solid impact on Saturday’s game.

Match-up to watch: James Frawley/ Jay Schulz

After missing the start of the season with a torn pectoral muscle, Frawley is returning to his All-Australian form and is consistently playing an important role in the Demons backline. Schulz has kicked 12 goals in the past three rounds to lead the Power’s goal kicking, and it will most likely be up to Frawley to shut him down.

Most disposals in 2011
Melbourne: Brent Moloney (341)
Port Adelaide: Travis Boak (309)

Most marks in 2011
Melbourne: Jack Watts (88)
Port Adelaide: Troy Chaplin (91)

Most tackles in 2011
Melbourne: Brent Moloney (78)
Port Adelaide: Matt Thomas (98)

Most goals in 2011
Melbourne: Liam Jurrah (30)
Port Adelaide: Jay Schulz (24)

Memorable match

The first and most recent time the two sides met in Darwin - Round Nine, 2010 - was a close-fought contest that resulted in a one-point victory to Melbourne. Leading all day, the Demons held a 33-point lead at the final break, before Port Adelaide kicked eight goals in the final quarter to Melbourne’s three, effectively leveling the scores. There was just one minute remaining when a rushed behind to Melbourne gave them the lead and the victory - 17.9.111 to Port Adelaide’s 16.14.110.

What Dean Bailey says…

“We’ll see where we went wrong and learn from it. We’ve got to get back on the track and train well and then we’ve got to focus on Port Adelaide.”

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Last 20 results & ladder positions:

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Head-to-head & full results:

 

[Crimson Azure]

Good work mate, when I got here Fred had already taken care of the other thread. It's gone now.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Results summary, odds and Demons recent form:

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Port recent form & both injury lists:

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Best-performed players in this fixture:

 

[Crimson Azure]

Cale has a solid average against port, better that any other player.

Look for him to dominate tonight's game.....

 

[BigSexc]

Pumped for this game tonight! Port looked good at TIO against the tigs. MASSIVE DANGER GAME! need to win this one as we have a horror month coming up.

 

[melbournemartin]

So....much....Excel....

 

[Dez!]

So....much....Excel....

All in different posts as well, use the freaking edit button.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Good work mate

Cheers mate - and hopefully we do show up tonight. Like Big S said, this is an absolute must-win game.

PS- Bet even if I were able to perform divine miracles, like parting the sea with my mind, Dezzie would still get stroppy about it...

 

[melbournemartin]

As I have said before, we have 4 very winnable games and 4 almost certain losses (West Coast, Carlton, Hawthorn and Geelong).

Win these 4 games and we have 10.5 wins which might just get us into the 8.

Given an inability to win 4 of our games, every one of the winnable games is a must win. Pessimistic perhaps, but if we lose this one our season is gawn

But hey, I reckon we'll win and win easily.

 

[Ando727]

As I have said before, we have 4 very winnable games and 4 almost certain losses (West Coast, Carlton, Hawthorn and Geelong).

Win these 4 games and we have 10.5 wins which might just get us into the 8.

Unfortunately, I don't think 10.5 wins is going to be enough to get into the 8.

Our competitors:
Essendon: have 8.5 and a superior percentage, we are unlikely to overtake them.

Freo: have a tough draw, but they are 1.5 ahead of us on 8 wins. We could overtake them if they win only 2 more games, we won't if they win 3 more.

Bulldogs: 2pts ahead, are playing well and have a decent draw.

St Kilda:: Dead level with us, better draw.

So there is plenty of competition for those two spots. It's quite possible that all 4 of those teams will end up on 10 wins, plus draws, plus percentage. I think it will take 11 wins to take a finals spot, 10.5 only with a good percentage (which we won't have). I can see us missing out by percentage at best.

 

[Tulip]

Dons have played 2 more games than us on 6.5. Their bye is rd 24 too

 

[Tempy Tiger]

Great work Wonna, your pregame write ups are fantastic mate.

 

[Crimson Azure]

Great work Wonna, your pregame write ups are fantastic mate.

Yeah they are, I taught him everything he knows.

Now that he ignores all of it, he has become a good poster.

 

[syl]

Worried about this one, but I am always worried...

 

[CowboyFromHell]

Worried about this one, but I am always worried...

Me too, especially with the Gold Coast winning today which leaves Port stuck on the bottom of the ladder. There is a part of me that is confident we can crush them but you just never know with us...

 

[melbournemartin]

Unfortunately, I don't think 10.5 wins is going to be enough to get into the 8.

Our competitors:
Essendon: have 8.5 and a superior percentage, we are unlikely to overtake them.

Freo: have a tough draw, but they are 1.5 ahead of us on 8 wins. We could overtake them if they win only 2 more games, we won't if they win 3 more.

Bulldogs: 2pts ahead, are playing well and have a decent draw.

St Kilda:: Dead level with us, better draw.

So there is plenty of competition for those two spots. It's quite possible that all 4 of those teams will end up on 10 wins, plus draws, plus percentage. I think it will take 11 wins to take a finals spot, 10.5 only with a good percentage (which we won't have). I can see us missing out by percentage at best.

Hopefully Hawthorn are still riddled with injuries when we play them next week.

Maybe Buddy can go smack someone down at the pub?

 

[syl]

Me too, especially with the Gold Coast winning today which leaves Port stuck on the bottom of the ladder. There is a part of me that is confident we can crush them but you just never know with us...

Yeah, they'll have a fair rocket up their arse!

Love the new avatar btw, Phil is so deep nowadays