Draft Watcher ModernArtillery 2021 Draft Thread

[ModernArtillery]

Do you think Mitch O'Neill gets another chance at AFL, an excellent junior career until his untimely serious ankle injury. Seems to have his ankle issues under control now and it's only been minor soft tissue niggles that have seen him miss this year. Quite impressive yesterday and seems to have improved his inside work markedly since his draft year.

I'll preface this by saying I haven't really tracked him closely enough this year to make a call with any confidence so take my thoughts with a grain of salt. He's had two really good finals and I would've had him in my best 3 or 4 for the Panthers yesterday. He does a lot right and I think you're spot on that there's been growth and a maturity to his inside craft. I still think he probably lacks those clear AFL standard traits so my guess would be that he's probably a fairly outside chance of getting another shot at the level.

 

[DaKids]

I went down to Adelaide Oval yesterday to see Norwood play South Adelaide in their do-or-die clash. As a Norwood fan I was there primarily as a supporter and it was a tough day for my mob but it was great to see two really special performances from Jason Horne-Francis and Sam Skinner.

Jason Horne-Francis
It was a pretty special performance from Horne-Francis. He seemed to unlock some of the really special work he can do at stoppage that he demonstrated in the games he played in the U18's last year. He's got a really enviable combination of strength and speed and when he gets on the move around the contest he's really difficult to slow down. His burst is impressive and the speed in which he moves from hands and knees to feet is near identical to Patrick Dangerfield. I'm sure many have seen the highlights by now but he just seemed to find so much more time and space on the bigger Adelaide Oval and when given that time he can be really damaging with the footy. His overlap run and carry was high quality and as always, his defensive work and repeat efforts were high class. The thing that I love about Horne-Francis as a prospect is that he's got so much scope to impact the game at AFL level almost immediately because of his forward craft and inside 50 pressure, and he'll get the opportunity to spend some time through the midfield because of his elite defensive work at the contest. As he settles in at AFL level, gets those first 50 games under his belt and starts to really hone his offensive midfield craft I think he develops into an elite offensive midfielder, not incapable of applying that defensive pressure, but playing a role that maximises the talent and influence he can have forward of centre.

Sam Skinner
Skinner was BOG for me and played probably the most influential game from a key defender that I've ever seen live at SANFL level. He just reads the flight of the ball so well and positioned himself time and time again to intercept. Every time he got his hands to the footy it stuck with one touch and he was pretty efficient by foot. Some context is necessary though, as he had a pretty significant size advantage spending the majority of his game time on Norwood's undersized key forwards who come in at the 190cm (and smaller) mark. That's a luxury he will not enjoy at AFL level. As a speed and vertical athlete he's a bit behind the really good key defenders at AFL level and his size and strength, which are second-to-none at SANFL level, will not be the same weapons for him against AFL forwards. Should he be selected as a delisted FA he could get an opportunity at AFL level pretty early next season but I'm not sure his SANFL form is directly translatable to the next level.

Matthew Roberts
I think Roberts has sacrificed his draft position for the opportunity to play SANFL league footy. If this was US sports, no player agent would've allowed him to continue to play League footy and would have him dominating at SANFL U18 level every week, putting up big numbers. He's looked slow and quite uncomfortable in these outside roles as a wing/half forward and he's really struggled to find the footy. It's exposed his lack of athleticism and speed from the contest which has really inhibited his ability to win the footy and find time and space to use it effectively. If you're drafting Roberts though, I suspect it's for his inside capabilities which, after going back and reviewing some of his U18's games this week, are well above his peers in that competition. The SANFL League exposure hasn't really done him any favours and I suspect the end result will see him slide on draft night.

I think that’s a bit harsh on Matt. What he’s shown the last few weeks is he can play his role as asked - and he looks to me to have played it adequately enough. Certainly to a level of retaining his spot - and South’s aren’t picking him for fun - it’s finals.

Last week 10 touches 6 tackles 1.0
Previous weeks 13 touches 4 tackles 2.0

Recruiters will be well aware he’s not in his preferred role - they would also see he’s knuckling down putting team first and doing what hes asked. I certainly disagree that spitting his dummy and running back to the 18’s just so he can play his favourite spot would be sending any kind of positive message to AFL clubs.

 

[Mego Red]

I think that’s a bit harsh on Matt. What he’s shown the last few weeks is he can play his role as asked - and he looks to me to have played it adequately enough. Certainly to a level of retaining his spot - and South’s aren’t picking him for fun - it’s finals.

Last week 10 touches 6 tackles 1.0
Previous weeks 13 touches 4 tackles 2.0

Recruiters will be well aware he’s not in his preferred role - they would also see he’s knuckling down putting team first and doing what hes asked. I certainly disagree that spitting his dummy and running back to the 18’s just so he can play his favourite spot would be sending any kind of positive message to AFL clubs.

He's playing a role that he won't play in the AFL, and by doing it he's highlighting his weaknesses instead of his strengths.

I think MA's point was pretty reasonable.

 

[DaKids]

He's playing a role that he won't play in the AFL, and by doing it he's highlighting his weaknesses instead of his strengths.

I think MA's point was pretty reasonable.

2 things

1. He may well need to play that role in his formative years - most kids transition to midfield after spending time developing in lesser roles

2 What’s not being considered which is very important is how he’s adapting. What’s his mental strength like. Is he team first. He’s not excelling thereof course he’s not - not his best spot. But is he throwing in the towel, worrying about his draft spot? Or is he doing enough to hold is positions while trying to develop some craft in an unfamiliar role - all for the betterment of his team?

What if the following happens

1. recruiter asks South’s coach about Roberts - right now I’m wagering he says - Matt doing a good job sacrificing his usual game and playing the exact role I want him to play for team benefit

2. I had to drop Matt because he wouldn’t play his role and was worried about his draft spot so we sent him back to 18’s so he’s happy now getting his 35 touches.

Which kid would you prefer ?

Recruiters already know he can beat up on his age groups in his preferred role - they know he can turn a game like 2nd quarter of state game where he was highest ranked player on the ground.

This is now team stuff, selfless stuff - I think in the end it helps him

 

[Mutineer]

2 things

1. He may well need to play that role in his formative years - most kids transition to midfield after spending time developing in lesser roles

2 What’s not being considered which is very important is how he’s adapting. What’s his mental strength like. Is he team first. He’s not excelling thereof course he’s not - not his best spot. But is he throwing in the towel, worrying about his draft spot? Or is he doing enough to hold is positions while trying to develop some craft in an unfamiliar role - all for the betterment of his team?

What if the following happens

1. recruiter asks South’s coach about Roberts - right now I’m wagering he says - Matt doing a good job sacrificing his usual game and playing the exact role I want him to play for team benefit

2. I had to drop Matt because he wouldn’t play his role and was worried about his draft spot so we sent him back to 18’s so he’s happy now getting his 35 touches.

Which kid would you prefer ?

Recruiters already know he can beat up on his age groups in his preferred role - they know he can turn a game like 2nd quarter of state game where he was highest ranked player on the ground.

This is now team stuff, selfless stuff - I think in the end it helps him

So you expect him to go higher in the draft than many are predicting?

If I had to have a shot at where he goes I'd take a stab at mid to late teens?

 

[DaKids]

So you expect him to go higher in the draft than many are predicting?

If I had to have a shot at where he goes I'd take a stab at mid to late teens?

Yes absolutely agree he goes around 12-20. My overall point is that I don’t think he slides a long way down just because he’s playing a minor role is South’s league team.

Not like recruiters only start watching in September.

 

[ModernArtillery]

I think that’s a bit harsh on Matt. What he’s shown the last few weeks is he can play his role as asked - and he looks to me to have played it adequately enough. Certainly to a level of retaining his spot - and South’s aren’t picking him for fun - it’s finals.

Last week 10 touches 6 tackles 1.0
Previous weeks 13 touches 4 tackles 2.0

Recruiters will be well aware he’s not in his preferred role - they would also see he’s knuckling down putting team first and doing what hes asked. I certainly disagree that spitting his dummy and running back to the 18’s just so he can play his favourite spot would be sending any kind of positive message to AFL clubs.

At no point did I say that I think he should spit the dummy and run back to the U18's. I merely said that if this was the US system then I'm sure he would be advised to play in the U18's which would limit the exposure of his weaknesses and most likely prevent him from sliding down the order on draft night. I understand that Roberts himself might prefer the opportunity to play at League level, particularly given South were playing finals footy and even if the cost was playing out of position and potentially exposing some of his weaknesses.

I honestly don't really think that Clubs would care that he's "done the team thing" and played out of position. That would be an expectation rather than something that would elevate him.

2 things

1. He may well need to play that role in his formative years - most kids transition to midfield after spending time developing in lesser roles

2 What’s not being considered which is very important is how he’s adapting. What’s his mental strength like. Is he team first. He’s not excelling thereof course he’s not - not his best spot. But is he throwing in the towel, worrying about his draft spot? Or is he doing enough to hold is positions while trying to develop some craft in an unfamiliar role - all for the betterment of his team?

This is exactly my concern. I completely agree that he would likely need to play a similar role early in his career and I think this has exposed Roberts as not having some of those key traits that typically translate to success in the half forward/wing role at AFL level. Again, at no point have I said that he should throw in the towel and go back and play U18's. It is just my belief that his League exposure can only have negatively impacted his draft stock.

 

[DaKids]

At no point did I say that I think he should spit the dummy and run back to the U18's. I merely said that if this was the US system then I'm sure he would be advised to play in the U18's which would limit the exposure of his weaknesses and most likely prevent him from sliding down the order on draft night. I understand that Roberts himself might prefer the opportunity to play at League level, particularly given South were playing finals footy and even if the cost was playing out of position and potentially exposing some of his weaknesses.

I honestly don't really think that Clubs would care that he's "done the team thing" and played out of position. That would be an expectation rather than something that would elevate him.




This is exactly my concern. I completely agree that he would likely need to play a similar role early in his career and I think this has exposed Roberts as not having some of those key traits that typically translate to success in the half forward/wing role at AFL level. Again, at no point have I said that he should throw in the towel and go back and play U18's. It is just my belief that his League exposure can only have negatively impacted his draft stock.

Thank you for a detailed response - I much admire your observations and will continue to enjoy them.

The only small thing I’ll respond to is your assessment of character. Shouldn’t underestimate how important it is to coaches to know a player has it in them to both excel at their chosen role AND to sacrifice for team success. Easy to say at an interview- better to show it.

 

[ModernArtillery]

Thank you for a detailed response - I much admire your observations and will continue to enjoy them.

The only small thing I’ll respond to is your assessment of character. Shouldn’t underestimate how important it is to coaches to know a player has it in them to both excel at their chosen role AND to sacrifice for team success. Easy to say at an interview- better to show it.

Equally I appreciate your responses!

I think we're mostly on the same page. You're absolutely right, always good to have the physical evidence opposed to empty interview answers. And no question that character is a critical component of the recruiting process. I'm just not overly convinced that this example elevates Roberts from a character perspective all that much but I'm sure there would be some recruiters that would value it differently.

 

[anotherletdown]

Thank you for a detailed response - I much admire your observations and will continue to enjoy them.

The only small thing I’ll respond to is your assessment of character. Shouldn’t underestimate how important it is to coaches to know a player has it in them to both excel at their chosen role AND to sacrifice for team success. Easy to say at an interview- better to show it.

Fairly highly respected by interstate recruiters I would expect.

 

[ModernArtillery]

I've updated my draft board again with a little bit of movement. I've been re-watching the Vic Metro v Vic Country trials + Challenge game, specifically focusing on Callaghan, Gibcus, Chesser and Andrew given they're the prospects that I've ranked with the biggest discrepancy from the consensus/industry view. I've added a bit of commentary to explain the risers/sliders.

1. Jason Horne-Francis
2. Nick Daicos
3. Neil Erasmus
4. Tyler Sonsie
5. Josh Ward

6. Finn Callaghan
I'm happy to put my hand up and say I got this one wrong having Callaghan so low on my board (still might be too low!). My reason for having him lower was based on my question marks over his ability to win the contested footy. I'm not sure I've completed convinced myself of that yet but I grossly underrated what he can do with the footy. Those "first receivers" for want of a better description are incredibly valuable at AFL level and his ability to navigate his way through traffic and deliver the footy is first class. He may never be that elite inside midfielder but I think his contested footy will grow enough to compliment his outside skill set which is already pretty special.

7. Ben Hobbs
8. Sam Darcy
9. Josh Rachele
10. Matthew Johnson

11. Josh Gibcus
I tend to err on the side of caution when evaluating key position talent and that's even more so the case with key position defenders. This ranking is still reflective of that caution. Gibcus has a really balanced skill set which I think I probably underrated in past assessments. His athleticism and intercept marking is a great strength but he's more than capable one on one and his ball use is solid enough. I think the AFL system will suit his strengths and that gives me a greater level of confidence in his ability to transition to the level.

12. Zac Taylor
13. Josh Goater
14. Connor MacDonald
15. Mitch Owens
16. Darcy Wilmot
17. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
18. Tom Brown
19. Kai Lohmann
20. Jye Amiss
21. Rhett Bazzo
22. Arlo Draper
23. Paul Curtis
24. Josh Sinn
25. Matthew Roberts
26. Brady Hough
27. Jacob Van Rooyen
28. Marcus Windhager
29. James Willis

30. Campbell Chesser
Chesser is a tough one because I just don't have enough exposure to justify a higher ranking. He's definitely one where I'd recommend viewing other draft watchers notes as they'll be a better reference than me. The reason he rises is because the class and upside is obvious when you watch him. His blend of size, speed and skill is pretty special. He's such a good mover and he just kicks the ball so smoothly. I still don't have much clarity on his ability to win his own footy, and to be honest just the contested side of his game in general, but at this stage I'd rather take a 'punt' on him over those I have a greater feel for below him.

31. Judson Clarke
32. Jamieson Ballantyne
33. Mitch Knevitt
34. Miller Bergman
35. Cooper Murley
36. Sam Butler

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

37. Charlie Molan
38. Ethan Regan
39. Leek Alleer
40. Josh Fahey

41. Hugh Jackson
Jackson's year hasn't trended the way he would've hoped. His form for North Adelaide tapered off towards the end of the year and he's not been able to have the influence he would've liked in the National Championship games against WA, where he's found himself playing outside the centre square, on a wing or across half forward. It's a little unsettling to see him not able to adapt to other roles which perhaps limits his scope at the next level. I still have a level of confidence in his ball winning and accumulation through the midfield but the lack of growth does raise concerns about his ability to transition to the next level.

42. Eric Benning
I've been really impressed with Benning over the past month as I think his football has really started to catch up to his athletic ability. He's starting to really time his leads and present with confidence. When he's got a full head of steam there aren't many at this level that can go with him. His follow up from marking and ruck contests is impressive too and he's more than capable of applying pressure and tackling when the ball hits the deck. I think Fremantle have a really nice prospect here.

43. Sam Banks
44. Lewis Rayson
45. Taj Woewodin
46. Lachlan Rankin
47. Cooper Beecken
48. Blake Howes
49. Youseph Dibb
50. Toby Murray

Mac Andrew
I've got Mac Andrew in a group of his own because I have no idea what the hell to do with him. On the one hand his talent is freakish. The way he moves and kicks the footy is incredible for a kid his size. On the other, how does that translate as a ruck/forward at the next level? Is his body capable of adding the size? I'm not even going to pretend to know where to view him. If I was a club with a bevvy of picks I'd certainly consider him, however if I was a club going to this draft with a small hand I'd probably steer clear.

 

[Lore]

With your threadmarks, would be a good idea to differentiate between them, maybe the date or something? "September Draft Board Update" or something?



At the moment they're all kind of similar

Great job with your latest draft board btw!

 

[ModernArtillery]

With your threadmarks, would be a good idea to differentiate between them, maybe the date or something? "September Draft Board Update" or something?

Probably a good idea! I just figured you could click down to the most recent version given they're pretty much all draft board related but I also didn't anticipate so many updates
I'll add something to differentiate them now!

 

[Lore]

Probably a good idea! I just figured you could click down to the most recent version given they're pretty much all draft board related but I also didn't anticipate so many updates
I'll add something to differentiate them now!

Looks good

 

[RedmanWasHere]

When the Essendon, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and Sydney AFLW signings thread I created starts having players being signed by these clubs Lore, can I please try the same?

Edit: I'd have to phrase it a certain way but we'll wait for then.

 

[Lore]

When the Essendon, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and Sydney AFLW signings thread I created starts having players being signed by these clubs Lore, can I please try the same?

Edit: I'd have to phrase it a certain way but we'll wait for then.

I don't quite know what you're referring to? Do you mean on the Essendon board or the Women's Footy board? (I don't mod women's footy)

 

[RedmanWasHere]

I don't quite know what you're referring to? Do you mean on the Essendon board or the Women's Footy board? (I don't mod women's footy)

The latter.

As to the modding, OH!

I didn't know you didn't mod it.

My apologies.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

When the Essendon, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and Sydney AFLW signings thread I created starts having players being signed by these clubs Lore, can I please try the same?

Edit: I'd have to phrase it a certain way but we'll wait for then.

You can create your own threadmarks in any thread you've started - there's a button at the bottom of each post.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

You can create your own threadmarks in any thread you've started - there's a button at the bottom of each post.

Thank you GUMBLETRON.

It wasn't until I checked a thread I created that I saw one.

 

[theGav56]

I've updated my draft board again with a little bit of movement. I've been re-watching the Vic Metro v Vic Country trials + Challenge game, specifically focusing on Callaghan, Gibcus, Chesser and Andrew given they're the prospects that I've ranked with the biggest discrepancy from the consensus/industry view. I've added a bit of commentary to explain the risers/sliders.

1. Jason Horne-Francis
2. Nick Daicos
3. Neil Erasmus
4. Tyler Sonsie
5. Josh Ward

6. Finn Callaghan
I'm happy to put my hand up and say I got this one wrong having Callaghan so low on my board (still might be too low!). My reason for having him lower was based on my question marks over his ability to win the contested footy. I'm not sure I've completed convinced myself of that yet but I grossly underrated what he can do with the footy. Those "first receivers" for want of a better description are incredibly valuable at AFL level and his ability to navigate his way through traffic and deliver the footy is first class. He may never be that elite inside midfielder but I think his contested footy will grow enough to compliment his outside skill set which is already pretty special.

7. Ben Hobbs
8. Sam Darcy
9. Josh Rachele
10. Matthew Johnson

11. Josh Gibcus
I tend to err on the side of caution when evaluating key position talent and that's even more so the case with key position defenders. This ranking is still reflective of that caution. Gibcus has a really balanced skill set which I think I probably underrated in past assessments. His athleticism and intercept marking is a great strength but he's more than capable one on one and his ball use is solid enough. I think the AFL system will suit his strengths and that gives me a greater level of confidence in his ability to transition to the level.

12. Zac Taylor
13. Josh Goater
14. Connor MacDonald
15. Mitch Owens
16. Darcy Wilmot
17. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
18. Tom Brown
19. Kai Lohmann
20. Jye Amiss
21. Rhett Bazzo
22. Arlo Draper
23. Paul Curtis
24. Josh Sinn
25. Matthew Roberts
26. Brady Hough
27. Jacob Van Rooyen
28. Marcus Windhager
29. James Willis

30. Campbell Chesser
Chesser is a tough one because I just don't have enough exposure to justify a higher ranking. He's definitely one where I'd recommend viewing other draft watchers notes as they'll be a better reference than me. The reason he rises is because the class and upside is obvious when you watch him. His blend of size, speed and skill is pretty special. He's such a good mover and he just kicks the ball so smoothly. I still don't have much clarity on his ability to win his own footy, and to be honest just the contested side of his game in general, but at this stage I'd rather take a 'punt' on him over those I have a greater feel for below him.

31. Judson Clarke
32. Jamieson Ballantyne
33. Mitch Knevitt
34. Miller Bergman
35. Cooper Murley
36. Sam Butler
37. Charlie Molan
38. Ethan Regan
39. Leek Alleer
40. Josh Fahey

41. Hugh Jackson
Jackson's year hasn't trended the way he would've hoped. His form for North Adelaide tapered off towards the end of the year and he's not been able to have the influence he would've liked in the National Championship games against WA, where he's found himself playing outside the centre square, on a wing or across half forward. It's a little unsettling to see him not able to adapt to other roles which perhaps limits his scope at the next level. I still have a level of confidence in his ball winning and accumulation through the midfield but the lack of growth does raise concerns about his ability to transition to the next level.

42. Eric Benning
I've been really impressed with Benning over the past month as I think his football has really started to catch up to his athletic ability. He's starting to really time his leads and present with confidence. When he's got a full head of steam there aren't many at this level that can go with him. His follow up from marking and ruck contests is impressive too and he's more than capable of applying pressure and tackling when the ball hits the deck. I think Fremantle have a really nice prospect here.

43. Sam Banks
44. Lewis Rayson
45. Taj Woewodin
46. Lachlan Rankin
47. Cooper Beecken
48. Blake Howes
49. Youseph Dibb
50. Toby Murray

Mac Andrew
I've got Mac Andrew in a group of his own because I have no idea what the hell to do with him. On the one hand his talent is freakish. The way he moves and kicks the footy is incredible for a kid his size. On the other, how does that translate as a ruck/forward at the next level? Is his body capable of adding the size? I'm not even going to pretend to know where to view him. If I was a club with a bevvy of picks I'd certainly consider him, however if I was a club going to this draft with a small hand I'd probably steer clear.

I was wondering what you think Fremantle should do based on your draft board in their quest for a KPF.

- take best available players with picks 8* and 10, and see who is left later.
- take best available and have faith in Benning
- trade down one of their first picks
- take one of the KPFs early and be done with it

 

[ModernArtillery]

I was wondering what you think Fremantle should do based on your draft board in their quest for a KPF.

- take best available players with picks 8* and 10, and see who is left later.
- take best available and have faith in Benning
- trade down one of their first picks
- take one of the KPFs early and be done with it

I'd probably take Amiss with pick 8. I don't mind Van Rooyen but I think it'll be pretty difficult for Freo to navigate that one as it would likely require a live trade to guarantee it. So I'd lock Amiss away, then I'd match on Benning (which would likely require splitting 27). I think Amiss + pick 10 + Benning (+ leftover draft capital from pick 27 split) would be a decent draft hand if you're looking to add to your KPF stocks.

 

[Vimal Anand]

I'd probably take Amiss with pick 8. I don't mind Van Rooyen but I think it'll be pretty difficult for Freo to navigate that one as it would likely require a live trade to guarantee it. So I'd lock Amiss away, then I'd match on Benning (which would likely require splitting 27). I think Amiss + pick 10 + Benning (+ leftover draft capital from pick 27 split) would be a decent draft hand if you're looking to add to your KPF stocks.

@MA how do you rate draper's mid field ability? Is he more of a forward?

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ModernArtillery]

@MA how do you rate draper's mid field ability? Is he more of a forward?

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

My view is that he's more likely to be a flanker at the next level, either across half forward or half back. He has midfield craft so he absolutely could have bursts through there but I don't necessarily think that his skill set translates to a permanent midfield role at AFL level.

 

[botts]

Question for you modern artillery. Can saints match bids for there nga players at pick 20 or does it have to be 21. Also I know you have Owens at 15 and I know some team rate him in that bracket. What do you think the odd are of the saints jagging the both of them. What clubs do you think would be keen on him. I reckon Richmond at that later pick because most of those others are interstate clubs

 

[briztoon]

Question for you modern artillery. Can saints match bids for there nga players at pick 20 or does it have to be 21. Also I know you have Owens at 15 and I know some team rate him in that bracket. What do you think the odd are of the saints jagging the both of them. What clubs do you think would be keen on him. I reckon Richmond at that later pick because most of those others are interstate clubs

21.

Apologies ModernArtillery for jumping in