Draft Expert ModernArtillery 2022 Draft Thread

ModernArtillery · May 16, 2022

Given we've got some predictions of what the Vic teams might look like, I thought I'd offer my thoughts on the SA team.

FF Jack Delean Isaac Keeler Tom Scully

HF Ashton Moir Harry Lemmey Kelsey Rypstra

C Max Blacker Nick Sadler Charlie Duncan

HB Jakob Ryan Brodie Tuck Archie Lovelock

FB Max Michalanney Kyle Marshall Blake Hansen

1R Harry Barnett Kobe Ryan Adam D'Aloia

IC Mattaes Phillipou, Jaiden Magor, Will Patton, Jake Walker, Billy Dowling

Emergencies Will Verrall, Trent Tattoli, Tyson Walls, Shaun Bennier

That forward line is as talented as I've seen SA put out in a while. The thing to watch for me is how well Scully and Keeler compete against the best key position talent from other states. If they compete aerially and bring the likes of Delean, Moir and Rypstra into the game, then that forward line could be really dangerous. I'd expect Magor and Phillipou to spend some time in the forward half as well. Let's hope the midfield can give them enough looks.

The toughest position for me to fill was that second wing spot. I initially had Trent Tattoli in, but I've replaced him with Charlie Duncan, purely because Duncan is draft eligible this year and deserves to get some exposure at the level. There's every chance Rypstra, Lovelock, Hansen, Dowling or J Ryan end up filling that position.

Brodie Tuck probably doesn't make the side as a key forward because of the depth there, but gets his opportunity in defence. J Ryan, Michalanney and Marshall I'd say are pretty much locks. I'm probably the biggest Archie Lovelock fan going around, so I was always going to find a spot for him. He could play anywhere, but gets a spot in defence. Blake Hansen slots into the back 50 to take the kick-ins.

Barnett leads the ruck, with Keeler the likely reliever. I feel K Ryan, D'Aloia and Sadler complement each other quite nicely as the midfielder core, while there's some bigger inside midfielders on the bench that will get their opportunity too.

Phillipou and Magor will rotate through the midfield and up forward. Bottom-ager Will Patton will be part of the defensive group and can take a few different assignments. Walker has won me over as an inside midfielder, but might have to find another role to make this team. It might even come down to one of him and Dowling. In that case, I'd lean Walker despite Dowling's numbers.

Verrall is incredibly stiff and only misses because of the incredible depth in the ruck/forward department. I wouldn't be opposed to shifting Barnett to CHB and playing Verrall as the lead ruck, but that's probably unlikely at this stage. Walls is another with great numbers but probably just misses for me. Tattoli could easily take up one of the wing positions, particularly if Duncan gets the first opportunity and isn't up to the level, while Bennier offers depth as a KPD.

ModernArtillery · Jul 5, 2022

I've been a bit MIA of late but I've caught up on a fair bit of footy, so I'm starting to piece together some thoughts on this years crop.

Overall I'm pretty down on this class. I'm not sure if it's a result of them missing a heap of footy or whether it's just a lean year but I'm really struggling to get excited about anyone after pick 8 or 9. It's soft as hell but I'll half commit to a rankings here to give a bit of an idea of where I'm rating guys in this group.

1. Harry Sheezel
Sheezel ticks all my boxes and whilst he may not be the safest option in that top group, I think he's got the most upside of the lot. I love what he offers in the forward half. He's special overhead, capable on the ground and has the size, speed and strength to create space for himself on the lead or inside the contest. He's really classy by foot and can be pretty clinical in front of goal. He just has all the tools to be a weapon at the next level.

2. George Wardlaw
I think Wardlaw is close to the safest option with maybe the only concern being that his health has prevented him from getting on the ground a bit this year. Assuming that's not a sign of things to come, Wardlaw projects as a quality midfielder at the next level. He's physical on the interior but also has the explosiveness to exit the contest at speed. Not an elite user but more than competent. Short of him missing the rest of the year through injury, I find it hard to not see him picked in the first few selections.

3. Elijah Tsatas
I've been well and truly sucked into the size, speed, athleticism and class of Tsatas. The contested ball-winning hasn't been there enough for me yet, but I still can't look past his ceiling as being at the level of someone like Josh Kelly. Whilst he definitely has a lower floor than someone like Ashcroft, I think the best version of Tsatas is a touch above.

4. Will Ashcroft
Easily the best performed player in the draft to date. Ashcroft gets a heap of the pill and uses it really well by both hand and foot. He's got a bit of zip from the contest so there's little doubt for me that he'll be able to find time a space at the next level. Like Daicos in last years draft, I love his appetite for the footy. The kid just wants the footy in his hands as much as possible and with his skills, that's where you want it too. I view his ceiling as slightly lower than the other three I have ahead of him, but he's as close to a sure thing as it comes.

I've got a slight dip here. I don't think it's a whole tier below, more like a 1B situation.

5 & 6 Elijah Hewett and Jhye Clark
I haven't really decided on the order yet, but I have these two next. I like Hewett's size and burst and feel like he's going to be able to physically exert himself on a contest at the next level. Clark just doesn't do a lot wrong. I feel like his kicking has improved and whilst I think he's slightly inside leaning, he's now more than capable on the outside too.

7 & 8 Mattaes Phillipou and Cam Mackenzie
I like Phillipou as an extractor and love what he can do aerially. His talent in the forward half is exceptional and he's going to be a tough match-up even at the next level. I have him a fraction behind the others because his kicking feels a bit one-dimensional at the moment (it's a lot of long down the line), but that could be a result of playing in the worst SANFL U18 side. He might be a touch slower than some of the others in this early group too, but if he keeps finding his way through traffic, I don't think that will restrict him too much at AFL level.

I mentioned that Twomey stole my Callum Mills comp in another thread but jokes aside, that's the ceiling I see for Mackenzie. I think he's a death by accumulation kind of guy, rather than impact per possession but Mackenzie can win it inside and out. I think his kicking as dropped a touch at the Champs with the added pressure, but it's not broken. Like Phillipou, I don't think he's the same speed athlete as some of the other early options, but it hasn't inhibited him one bit at U18 level.

This is where I start to get less excited.

9. Jedd Busslinger
10. Harry Lemmey
11. Harry Barnett

These are my three favourite keys at the moment, though none of them have really overwhelmed me. Busslinger is the best performed but I'm far from convinced he'll be a star at the next level. Lemmey I think is the most talented and I haven't completely lost faith in him being a special prospect, but it's hard to overlook how ordinary his year has been so far. I LOVE Barnett's contested marking and the way he moves for his size, but his kicking and decision-making can be erratic at times.

12-15 Mitch Szybkowski, Charlie Clarke, Alwyn DaveyJr and Oliver Hollands
These four guys get me to 15 and I'm really not super attached to this group at all. I think I like the upside of Alwyn the most but he's probably been the least productive of the group. I'm really optimistic about what Charlie Clarke could be at AFL level, but I like him as a value pick in the second round onwards, rather than as a genuine first rounder. I'm not overly excited by Szybkowski and Hollands but I think they could be pieces in a midfield group at AFL level.

A few other comments to wrap up:

I think Brayden George will be pretty close to this top group, but I just need to see a bit more of him.

I just can't get all the way there yet on Keeler, Cadman and Jefferson yet. Obviously Jefferson's performance was pretty special on the weekend and Keeler and Cadman have had their moments too. I think they're genuinely the 4-5 year project type key forwards which is fine, but I'm not quite there on them being a a number one option inside 50. If I'm picking one at the moment I think it's Jefferson (definitely recency bias).

Probably a bit surprising (and maybe a bit crazy), but I think I like Walker, Lovelock and Sadler more than D'Aloia, Kobe Ryan and Dowling out of the SA group. I like Walker's speed and burst in the contest. He has great hands and I think his tank will improve as he gets some continuity in his footy. I'm pretty sure I hold all the Archie Lovelock stock that exists. He's never done anything wrong in my eyes. Sadler is another that is super clean and has great speed and class with the footy.

Make no mistake, D'Aloia is incredibly special at underage level but his speed, tank and kicking is a bit of a worry for me. I love Kobe Ryan and he's performed at every level he's played, but he has to be a midfielder at AFL level and I'm just starting to worry a little bit about what that looks like. There's probably a bit more versatility to Dowling's game and the numbers are great. I think I could be talked into him but I'm not quite there yet.

To finish on a positive note, and I'll do some more on these guys in the coming days, a few other names I like: Noah Long, Max Michalanney, Coby Burgiel, Lachie Cowan, Finn Emile-Brennan, Jonti Schuback, Lewis Hayes and Tom McCallum.

ModernArtillery · Jul 27, 2022

It's only been a few weeks since my last rankings but we've got a fair bit of footy in since then.

1. Harry Sheezel
2. George Wardlaw
3. Elijah Tsatas
4. Will Ashcroft

I'm really hesitant to drop Wardlaw and Tsatas without them playing, but Ashcroft has just been phenomenal. He sits at four only because I think the ceiling of the other three prospects is higher. It's probably unlikely that all three end up better than Ashcroft though, so I may have to reconsider. It really should be a criminal offence to not have him higher but I'm stubborn (stupid).

5, 6 & 7 Elijah Hewett, Jhye Clark and Mitch Szybkowski
Szybkowski the big mover for me. I really like his size, burst and use by foot. I think he's got a nice inside/outside balance and feel like he has a lot of ways he can fit into a midfield at AFL level.

8 & 9 Mattaes Phillipou and Cam Mackenzie
10. Jedd Busslinger

11 & 12 Harry Lemmey and Harry Barnett
Keeping Lemmey here isn't really defensible, especially given I have him ahead of all the other key forwards in this draft. I just can't quite let go of the picture I had of him from last year. Not quite ready to jump off yet (again, stubborn/stupid). Barnett has everything that I want to see from a key position player and is pretty close to jumping Lemmey (he may have already).

13-15 Harry Cole, Alwyn DaveyJr and Oliver Hollands
Clarke slides out of this group on the back of others showing a little more of what I wanted to see through the Champs. Harry Cole is one I'm really loving at the moment and is my recency bias riser. I just love his size, speed and athleticism. He's got forward craft too and if he can ever put it together as a midfielder I think he could be pretty special.

16-24 Charlie Clarke, Max Michalanney, Noah Long, Aaron Cadman, Isaac Keeler, Matthew Jefferson, Lachie Cowan, Lewis Hayes, Jaspa Fletcher
I think this is where I'd have to strongly consider the keys. Even if I'm not all the way there yet, I'd rather take the upside of Cadman, Keeler or Jefferson in this range compared to most other prospects. I like the smalls that can get up and down the ground, move the ball well, apply forward pressure and hit the scoreboard. I think Long and Clarke can do all of those things at AFL level and while they can, I think there is a role for them there. I believe in what Michalanney looks like at AFL level and can see him fitting in as a versatile defender and attacking option out of the back half. Lewis Hayes is the second best KPD in my view and I think Fletcher is a super smooth operator. I think he forges a career at AFL level. Cowan's inclusion is less on recent form and more just an assessment of the physical attributes and weapons.

Jakob Ryan, Billy Dowling and Reuben Ginbey are all pretty close. I still like what I see from Walker, Lovelock and Sadler more than Dowling in particular, but I think Dowling probably has the higher ceiling. Lovelock is still my guy though.

I need to do more work on Brayden George (still), Oli Hotton, Bailey Humphrey and Jack O'Sullivan. There's a world where each of them fits into my top 25.

ModernArtillery · Aug 16, 2022

Final Siren Podcast with Mattaes Phillipou

Mattaes is a really impressive kid. Super confident and you can tell how much he just loves playing footy. I knew he'd played basketball at a pretty high level, but I probably didn't realise that he favoured basketball for much of his junior career. I remember Jackson Hately being similar, though we always felt we'd lose him to footy at some point.

I interviewed Mattaes at the start of the year and he mentioned one of his goals was to be a top 5 draft pick. I remember being a little bit surprised at the response at that point, but after spending more time with him you get a little insight into how driven he is to be really, really good.

Mattaes also confirmed he was carrying an injury through the Vic Metro game at the Champs and speaks a little bit about that. He also gives us a few names of players that surprised him at the Champs. One of the more enjoyable chats we've had this year.

ModernArtillery · Aug 29, 2022

I think I'm starting to get a feel for my tiers now. I feel like the gap between the floor and ceiling of this draft is as big as I've seen over the last few years. You could tell me we'd get a handful of stars or none and I'd believe both. I haven't contributed as many of my thoughts on each of the players, which is something I like to do, so I've added a few quick notes on each.

1. Harry Sheezel
Sheezel is elite forward of centre. He's strong aerially and on the ground. He's a classy distributor and finisher in front of goal. He's got speed, power and burst. He pretty much has all the weapons required to be an elite modern-day AFL player. His midfield craft has a little way to go, but I'm confident it will come.

2. George Wardlaw
I see Jack Viney-like hardness and impact at the contest. Wardlaw is just so combative in the way he attacks the footy. What separates him from someone like Viney is he has the speed and agility to separate from the contest and ability to be damaging with his ball use. He's not a special kick, but he's consistent and effective enough to be damaging with his disposal.

*I've flipped Ashcroft and Tsatas. Balls on the line, if I had to pick between Ashcroft and Tsatas, I'd pick Ashcroft. I still feel like the ceiling for Tsatas is higher, but I've got far more confidence that Ashcroft gets near his ceiling at AFL level. Basically I'm a coward.

3. Will Ashcroft
Easily the best performed player in the draft. There's not a lot that Ashcroft doesn't do well. It's only perceived ceiling that separates him from Sheezel and Wardlaw in my view.

4. Elijah Tsatas
I love his size and speed. I think I've probably overrated his kicking a touch, but I actually think his inside work is underrated and I'd much rather utilise him on the ball than on the wing. I think Tsatas has the greatest variance in terms of ceiling/floor out of my top 10.

5. Elijah Hewett
I'm still pretty enamored by Hewett's weapons despite a somewhat underwhelming Carnival. I'm not sure if he was carrying something or if the tank needs to improve, but I feel like he didn't cover the ground as well as I would've hoped throughout the Champs. Finding some consistency in his ability to get to and impact contests will go a long way. In the meantime, his power, speed and burst make him a real threat at stoppage where he's capable of separating and distributing at a really high level.

6. Jhye Clark
I find it pretty hard to believe that Clark won't just be a good AFL footballer. His kicking has certainly improved and he's just a relentless competitor. He's not going to blow you away with speed or athleticism, and that probably limits his ceiling to an extent, but he's going to overwhelm you with consistency and tenacity.

7. Mitch Szybkowski
I've done a bit of a 180 on Szybkowski. I probably wasn't as high on him earlier in the year but I was impressed with the way he used the ball at the Champs. He can have an impact inside and outside the contest. He can be damaging with his disposal and has the physical tools to compete at AFL level. I haven't seen him have much of an impact in the forward half, so he feels like a pure mid at this stage, but a very good one at that.

8. Cam Mackenzie
I don't think Mackenzie has the ceiling of the other midfielders I have ranked ahead of him, but he has very few deficiencies. He's a good ball winner at stoppage and is capable of separating from the contest. He seems to cover the ground well and has an appetite to accumulate the footy. I'd describe his ball use as effective rather than classy, but I certainly don't view it as a weakness. I think he projects as a well-balanced midfielder at AFL level.

9. Mattaes Phillipou
I think Phillipou, like Tsatas, has one of the larger ceiling/floor gaps of those in my top 10. I think the Fyfe stylistic comparison is probably the best, though I view Phillipou as a better finisher in front of goal. I think the floor probably looks like Mason Wood. I fully expect him to exceed that, which should be obvious based on where I rank him. His strengths are his aerial ability and finishing in front of goal. He's a strong stoppage presence, though he doesn't separate from the contest in the same way that others in my top 10 do. I haven't been overly impressed with his field kicking and decision-making but that can at times be impacted by things outside of his control.

10. Jedd Busslinger
I don't usually get overly excited about key position defenders but I think Busslinger can have a really impactful career at AFL level. I like that he can negate and intercept, but it's his ability to use the footy that I like most. He's really comfortable as a distributor in the back half and that will allow him to impact the game offensively from a key position defensive post.

11. Bailey Humphrey
Humphrey is an explosive, shifty midfielder that is equally damaging inside forward 50. As a forward, he's strong on the lead and equally as capable on the ground as he is overhead. Humphrey is already pretty well developed and his ability to be damaging as a forward could earn him some opportunities in an AFL side next season. His kicking, particularly in front of goal, needs some work and I feel like he's going to need a few pre-season's to build an AFL-standard tank, but he's looking like a special talent.

12. Alwyn DaveyJr
I think Davey Jr has all the tools to thrive in a role at AFL level. I don't think he's ever a pure midfielder at AFL level, but I see him as someone who can operate across half forward and push up to impact the contest. I think his speed and craftiness are really desirable attributes and with greater application defensively, I think the path for him to play a lot of AFL football is clear.

13. Aaron Cadman
The thing that separates Cadman from the other KPF's in this draft for me is the fact that he consistently makes something happen. Even when the supply isn't great or the conditions don't suit him, he still finds a way to impact the game. He's become my top ranked KPF, not because I think he's the most talented, but because I feel more confident that he'll find a way at the next level. I feel like Cadman is solid at everything, without being particularly elite at any one thing.

14. Harry Barnett
Contested marking is something I value really highly in key position players and that's something that Barnett does extremely well. His movement for a kid his size is impressive and while his kicking can be hit or miss, some of his hits are pretty special for a ruck/key position player. Like Cadman, I like that he always finds a way to impact the contest. Barnett has separated himself as the best ruck in the draft, but there's a world where he finds a role as a key forward or a centre half back, that I find very exciting.

15. Harry Lemmey
Unfortunately there's not a great deal of positives to take out of this year for Lemmey. From what I've been told, I'm not sure he was particularly well supported in the State set-up, which could explain why he was spat out devoid of any confidence. I'll continue to evaluate him on his whole body of work and with that comes some pretty impressive football as a bottom-ager. I still view him as the most talented KPF in the pool and I desperately hope he captures that 2021 form again.

16. Lewis Hayes
For a guy who doesn't get excited by KPD's, I've even surprised myself by having Lewis Hayes this high. He's another that I just see a clear path for him to have an AFL career. I like that he can defend and intercept and that he's comfortable with the ball in his hands. He's a great size at 197cm and one that I would be comfortable taking in the back end of the first round.

17. Oliver Hollands
This is a harsh criticism but Hollands is just a bit vanilla for me. I'm not seeing the really elite traits that I think are required to crack and maintain a position in an AFL midfield. Having said that, there's not a lot that he does wrong, so perhaps the sum of all his talent will be enough for him to forge a career.

18. Max Michalanney
I just feel really confident in what I'm going to get from Michalanney and that's someone who can play on a number of types and hurt the opposition offensively if they're not accountable. I think there are some Dylan Grimes/Tom Stewart elements to his game and whilst I'm not suggesting he's going to get to their level, I think there's scope for him to fulfill a similar role at AFL level.

19. Jaspa Fletcher
I really like Fletcher. He only sits this low because I don't see a super high ceiling for him, but I like his game and see the path for him to play a number of different roles at AFL level.

20. Jonti Schuback
I love Schuback's speed and drive from the defensive half. He's got line-breaking pace and he changes lanes really quickly with high level agility. I'd like him to be a more impactful user at times and I think he'll have to grow a bit more defensively, but I can see a world where he can be a half back at AFL level.

21. Isaac Keeler
I think I might've seen more of Keeler than any other prospect the last few years and I still can't quite get there on him. He certainly does some things that are incredibly unique for his size, but I've often felt he does the key position stuff poorly. I think his ruck work has been pretty good at all levels this year though and I think if he can become more competitive aerially, the pathway to that forward/second ruck role at AFL becomes even clearer.

22. Matthew Jefferson
Jefferson is another who I feel has a sizeable gap between his floor and ceiling. I've seen him compared to Harrison Jones from Essendon and that probably reflects the level of player I'm projecting Jefferson to be. This is no doubt too low for him, but I just don't have a super high level of confidence that he makes it at AFL level.

23. Harry Cole
Cole had some pretty nice moments in the carnival this year for WA and possesses some traits that I really value. He's a nice size at around that 186cm, he has good speed and he's really capable aerially. He's a dual position threat as someone who can hit the scoreboard, but can also push up and add some speed and class around the footy. He's got a fair bit of work to do on his contested game if he's going to be a pure midfielder (which is probably unlikely), but I see a pathway for him to be a solid wing/half forward option at AFL level.

24. Brayden George
I probably haven't seen enough of George's midfield ability to properly evaluate him. He's been pretty special at times throughout the NAB League season as a forward. He's strong on the lead, capable on the ground and he's a really nice finisher. When you project the ceiling, it's not hard to see why he's so highly rated amongst this crop. I just can't have him higher without seeing (and being convinced) by that midfield capability.

25. Charlie Clarke
Clarke has slid down in my rankings as a result of others with higher ceilings moving up. Clarke is one that I'm confident finds a role at AFL level as a small forward that can apply pressure and hit the scoreboard. I think he'll always be at risk of being overtaken by someone more talented, but in the right situation I think he can have an impact at the next level.

The next few

Lachie Cowan
I'm really intrigued by Cowan's athletic attributes. I've seen moments where he's had an impact at stoppage or inside the contest and been impressed, but until I see that consistently, it seems like he's destined to be a half back. He's talented enough to forge a career back there though and he's one I'd be prepared to hand a list spot.

Luke Teal
I think Teal will be one of those most impacted by Oakleigh's season finishing earlier than expected. I would've loved to have a seen a bit more of him. The talent and physical attributes might be enough to get him a look in, but a bit more footy certainly would've helped. He looks pretty comfortable at half back as a rebounding defender. He can intercept, accumulate and use the footy at a pretty impactful level.

Sam Gilbey
Gilbey is a really classy user of the footy and one who was far too good for the WAFL Colts competition. It was really disappointing to see him get hurt last weekend after already having an interrupted season. I suspect he's done enough to get his name called, but a shame not to see more of him nonetheless.

Jasper Scaife
I'm actually a bit of a Scaife fan and he's one who I'd target towards the back end of the draft or as a rookie. He's a good athlete and a really powerful kick of the footy. His ruck work has a fair way to go if he's going to be able to chop out at the next level, but he's not one you'd be taking with any plans to throw into an AFL game for some time.

Outside the top 30 favourites
This post is already obnoxiously long, so I'll keep these notes as brief as possible. I wanted to give some love to a few other kids that don't necessarily have the ceiling to warrant a top 30 selection (in my view) but who I'd be really keen to add in the back end of the draft. Their versatility and flexibility to fulfill a number of roles gives me a high level of confidence that they could be part of a best 22 if they found the right situation.

Archie Lovelock remains a favourite of mine. He just does everything well. He's courageous, clean below his knees and strong overhead for his size.
Coby Burgiel has the versatility to play anywhere at the next level. He can fumble a touch below his knees, but he does everything at a pretty high level. Hugh Bond is one I love as a two-way midfielder who is capable of a filling a few different roles.
Jake Walker has really creative hands and exciting burst from stoppage.
Nick Sadler's speed on the ball and class by foot makes him one of my favourites from SA.

Not sure yet basket
Oli Hotton
Billy Dowling
Reuben Ginbey
Jack O'Sullivan

ModernArtillery · Sep 19, 2022

2022 SANFL U18 Team of the Year

For those interested, we've pulled together a 2022 SANFL U18 Team of the Year. We set out some pretty strict criteria. Only SANFL U18 form has been considered and players qualify only if they've played in at least 50% of games in the home and away season. This rules out a couple of the bigger names, with school and representative football keeping them under the games played threshold.

I'd suggest there's scope for five players selected in this team to be drafted in either the National or Rookie draft:
Billy Dowling
Isaac Keeler
Nick Sadler
Jaiden Magor
Tom Scully

A few of bottom-agers that made the side who I think are ones to watch for next year:
Ashton Moir
Trent Tattoli
Logan Evans
Ben Ridgway
Oscar Pearce

ModernArtillery · Sep 20, 2022

Round 1

Brisbane – Will Ashcroft (matched bid)
North Melbourne – Harry Sheezel
West Coast – George Wardlaw
GWS – Bailey Humphrey
Essendon – Aaron Cadman
Gold Coast (from Adelaide) - Elijah Tsatas
Hawthorn – Olli Hotton
Gold Coast – Jedd Busslinger
Port Adelaide – Jhye Clark
St Kilda – Cam Mackenzie
Carlton – Matthew Jefferson
Western Bulldogs – Lewis Hayes
Richmond – Mattaes Phillipou
Fremantle – Reuben Ginbey
Brisbane – Jaspa Fletcher (matched bid)
Sydney – Henry Hustwaite
Collingwood – Elijah Hewett
Sydney – Coby Burgiel
Geelong – Oliver Hollands

I've probably got Humphrey, Hotton and Hayes at their ceilings from a draft position perspective. I have them there without any confidence, but I do feel like they would at least be in the conversation for those clubs in that range.

I've obviously given Gold Coast the extra selection from the Crows in anticipation of the Rankine trade. I think Gold Coast walk away pretty well with Tsatas and Busslinger from both a needs and talent perspective. Retention will of course be the challenge.

I'm not really a fan of Ginbey or Hustwaite, but there seems to be a strong indication that Ginbey in particular will be a first round selection. Who knows where Fremantle's picks will land with the Jackson trade + Lobb/Logue/Acres all seemingly on their way out.

Collingwood and Geelong walk away looking pretty good here with Hewett and Hollands respectively. I think this will very much be the theme of the draft, with clubs selecting later in the piece being perceived to have got real value due to the depth of the tiers in this group.

Also - huge props to anyone who has managed to do a phantom beyond the first round. I quit after pick 25.

ModernArtillery · Oct 1, 2022

Harry Barnett Profile

I'm not one to get overly excited by ruck prospects but I'd genuinely consider picking Barnett late in the first round. If you look at his listed strengths, he ticks all the boxes for me, and I think there's still a fair bit of untapped potential. There's just too many ways that he can impact the game from a ruck perspective that I'd be very surprised if he didn't have a career at AFL level.

ModernArtillery · Oct 4, 2022

Adam D'Aloia Profile

You could genuinely make a case that D'Aloia is the best-performed junior footballer in the country not named Will Ashcroft. The athletic attributes are obviously the biggest concern and the ball use is not AFL-standard at this point in time, but if you want a good kid that can find the footy and do absolutely every right, D'Aloia is your man.

ModernArtillery · Oct 5, 2022

Billy Dowling Profile

After working on Dowling's profile I really feel like I've underrated him as a prospect. I've probably judged him too harshly because he wins a lot of empty calorie possessions, but putting that aside, he's got a lot of scope to fill a variety of roles at AFL level. I think I like him best as a winger at the next level where I see a pretty clear path for him to be a best 22 player.

ModernArtillery · Oct 14, 2022

Harry Lemmey Profile
Isaac Keeler Profile
Phoenix Foster Profile

I thought it might be worth sharing these profiles in the one post given they're all SA KPF's with varying degrees of ability in the ruck.

It's hard not to be worried about Lemmey given the trajectory he was heading after his 2021 season. The talent hasn't disappeared though and I'd still be willing to draft him. I do have some concern that if things don't fall exactly his way at AFL level that he may struggle to put together a meaningful career. I'm curious to see how recruiters view Lemmey and can't help but wonder if there's a chance he misses out altogether.

I've probably seen Keeler live more than any other prospect in this years draft pool, but he just never won me over. I see the talent, the athletic attributes, the movement, but it's the floating in and out of games and the lack of physicality that worries me.

Though I have Foster ranked the lowest of the three, there's a world where he has the longest AFL career as a serviceable ruck/forward. His willingness to compete in the air and versatility to play deep, push up the ground and then go through the ruck suggests there's plenty to work with. Foster also has an element of rawness that indicates there may be a fair bit of untapped potential with him.

My gut tells me that all three get drafted, with Keeler the only of the two I'd be comfortable betting my house on.

ModernArtillery · Oct 19, 2022

Very busy period for me but I'll try to get at least one more update of my rankings out before the draft. I've had to do my due diligence on Jack O'Sullivan and Max Gruzewski, who are both risers as a result.

I've always believed in Phillipou's talent, but aside from the aerial capability, I've always had a little bit of concern about his speed around stoppage. His testing put to bed any concerns about his speed and with further development I'm sure he'll be able to utilise it more effectively to exit the contest. I'm still a strong believer in Elijah Hewett as a borderline top 5 talent and would happily use an early selection on him. It seems as if he's likely to feature in the second half of the first round (and beyond) which I think represents extremely good value. I think Cadman's rise to a top selection is partially to do with his form (which has obviously been strong) and partly to do with the lack of top-end key position talent. I prefer some of the top end midfielders in isolation, but list structure and composition would obviously play a role if I was coming from a club perspective.

1. Harry Sheezel
2. George Wardlaw
3. Will Ashcroft
4. Mattaes Phillipou
5. Elijah Tsatas
6. Elijah Hewett
7. Jhye Clark
8. Bailey Humphrey
9. Aaron Cadman
10. Mitch Szybkowski

There's not a lot of separation between Mackenzie and Szybkowski, with the two pretty interchangeable for me. I feel like Szybkowski has a bit more speed from stoppage and can be more damaging with his kicking, however I'm relying primarily on tape so defer to others on that one. I think Busslinger and Hayes are 100+ game key defenders at AFL level and would gladly take them in the first round. Hotton is the big riser for me. I value his stoppage-craft and ability to impact the scoreboard when going forward. I have Michalanney really high and Jacob Weddle really low. You could mount a genuine case that they're the wrong way around and I wouldn't argue against it. I just really believe in Michalanney's ability to impact the game defensively, against a variety of opposition, and I think the offensive tools are there to be damaging the other way. Stylistically, I'm thinking Dylan Grimes. I just need Max to grab himself a couple of extra cm's height-wise.

11. Cam Mackenzie
12. Jedd Busslinger
13. Lewis Hayes
14. Harry Barnett
15. Olli Hotton
16. Harry Lemmey
17. Alwyn DaveyJr
18. Oliver Hollands
19. Max Michalanney
20. Jaspa Fletcher

Gruzewski and O'Sullivan the big risers here. I've liked O'Sullivan for a while, but had to go back to some vision to remember why I was so high on him. I also got a couple of Gruzewski's early NAB League games too and was really impressed with what I saw from him down back. I think that's the position I see him having the greatest success in at AFL level. After pulling together the Dowling profile, I felt like I'd really underrated his versatility and how well his game translates to AFL footy. I like him on the wing at the next level.

21. Max Gruzewski
22. Jonti Schuback
23. Matthew Jefferson
24. Isaac Keeler
25. Charlie Clarke
26. Jack O'Sullivan
27. Jacob Konstanty
28. Billy Dowling
29. Jakob Ryan
30. Lachie Cowan

I continue to be the biggest Archie Lovelock fan. He's one that I think could just find a way at the next level. I love Burgiel's versatility, but wonder what the game looks like for him at the next level. D'Aloia would've been an incredible prospect in an earlier era, but wonder how the running and athletic limitations impact him at the next level. I like what Will Verrall has to offer as a ruck prospect and am intrigued by Phoenix Foster's size and skill-set.

31. Harry Cole
32. Brayden George
33. Reuben Ginbey
34. Josh Weddle
35. Coby Burgiel
36. Archie Lovelock
37. Sam Gilbey
38. Adam D'Aloia
39. Will Verrall
40. Phoenix Foster

ModernArtillery · Oct 22, 2022

Round 1
1. GWS – Aaron Cadman
2. Brisbane – Will Ashcroft *Bid matched
3. North Melbourne – Harry Sheezel
4. North Melbourne – George Wardlaw
5. Essendon – Elijah Tsatas
6. Gold Coast – Bailey Humphrey
7. Hawthorn – Mattaes Phillipou
8. Geelong – Jhye Clark
9. West Coast – Reuben Ginbey
10. St Kilda – Cam Mackenzie
11. Carlton – Oliver Hollands
12. Western Bulldogs – Jedd Busslinger
13. West Coast – Elijah Hewett
14. Melbourne – Matthew Jefferson
15. Sydney – Edward Allan
16. GWS – Jacob Konstanty
17. Collingwood – Lewis Hayes
18. Sydney – Olli Hotton
19. GWS – Max Gruzewski

Hawthorn was the first really troubling pick for me as I felt they could go any of Clark, Mackenzie or Phillipou. I ultimately went Phillipou because I like that mix for them. I debated between Allan and Hustwaite for Sydney's first pick and then couldn't find a landing spot for Hustwaite that I liked.

Round 2
20. GWS – Lachlan Cowan
21. Brisbane – Jaspa Fletcher *Bid matched
22. West Coast – Harry Barnett
23. Adelaide – Max Michalanney *Bid matched
24. Western Bulldogs – Jakob Ryan
25. Essendon – Alwyn DaveyJr *Bid matched
26. North Melbourne – Josh Weddle
27. Hawthorn – Mitch Szybkowski
28. Collingwood – Isaac Keeler
29. West Coast – Sam Gilbey
30. Collingwood – Henry Hustwaite
31. St Kilda – Bailey Macdonald
32. Carlton – Nick Sadler
33. Fremantle – Billy Dowling
34. GWS – Toby McMullin
35. St Kilda – Brayden George
36. Port Adelaide – Charlie Clarke
37. Melbourne – Jack O'Sullivan

I strongly considered Bailey Macdonald at pick 20 for GWS but then couldn't find a landing spot for Cowan that I liked and didn't want to have him sliding too far. The Michalanney bid comes earlier than I anticipated. I'm making the assumption the Crows have some mail that there was interest prior to their second round pick which would be motivation for the trade with North. I couldn't decide between Jack O'Sullivan and Noah Long for Melbourne at 37, but settled on JOS. I'm struggling to find a suitor for Davey Jr in the first round and wonder if he could slide to the second round with clubs knowing the Bombers will match. No room for Coby Burgiel inside the first two rounds doesn't feel right. I strongly considered him at 34 for GWS.

*Edited to fix bulleting issue.

ModernArtillery · Nov 16, 2022

These are my final rankings for the 2022 crop. I've separated them into tiers and offered a general comment of how I view each group. The tier descriptions are not a perfect formula, but I'm hoping it offers a bit of an explanation as to why some players sit higher/lower than others.

Tier 1
I'm selecting any of these guys if possible, regardless of list needs/fit. I obviously rate their talent but also see significant upside. I think there's scope for each of these players to be a number 1 or number 2 midfielder in a strong AFL side.

1. Harry Sheezel
2. George Wardlaw
3. Will Ashcroft
4. Elijah Hewett
5. Mattaes Phillipou

Tier 2
There's a little bit more fluidity for me within each tier after that top group. I'd be prepared to overlook Cadman or any of the midfielders for a KPD if it made most sense from a list need perspective. I view the ceiling of this group a shade below that of Tier 1 and probably see more things that could prevent them from reaching their ceiling than any of the prospects in that top group.

6. Aaron Cadman
7. Elijah Tsatas
8. Jhye Clark
9. Bailey Humphrey
10. Cam Mackenzie
11. Jedd Busslinger
12. Lewis Hayes
13. Harry Barnett

Tier 3A
I could have these prospects in any order and be equally satisfied. I think their floor is a fringe best 22 level prospect, but a ceiling of top 10 on an AFL list.

14. Mitch Szybkowski
15. Olli Hotton
16. Oliver Hollands

Tier 3B
Lemmey gets his own category because his ceiling fits into 3A, but I think his floor is lower than 3C. However, in isolation, I'd be prepared to take Lemmey over any of the guys in 3C.

17. Harry Lemmey

Tier 3C
I think the floor for these guys is fringe best 22, with a ceiling of 10-22 on a list. Essentially, I see a small gap between the best and worst case scenario for their careers, but have a fairly high level of confidence that they'll have a career at AFL level.

18. Coby Burgiel
19. Alwyn DaveyJr
20. Jaspa Fletcher
21. Charlie Clarke
22. Max Michalanney

Tier 4
One of my bigger groups, Tier 4 represents players who have the largest gap between ceiling and floor. My view is that the players in this group could legitimately represent top 10 on a list value or could be in and out of the system relatively quickly. I think it's highly likely that some of the guys in this group hit in a big way. Fit/role/opportunity will be critical for their development and ultimate success at the level.

23. Max Gruzewski
24. Jacob Konstanty
25. Jonti Schuback
26. Matthew Jefferson
27. Reuben Ginbey
28. Lachie Cowan
29. Billy Dowling
30. Isaac Keeler
31. Josh Weddle
32. Harry Cole
33. Jakob Ryan
34. Henry Hustwaite
35. Sam Gilbey
36. Brayden George
37. Darcy Jones

Tier 5
This group consists of players that I view as lower end role players whose success I feel will be very dependent on opportunity at AFL level.

38. Jack O'Sullivan
39. Archie Lovelock
40. Adam D'Aloia
41. Phoenix Foster
42. Will Verrall
43. Nick Sadler
44. Harry Rowston
45. Seth Campbell
46. Hugh Bond
47. James Van Es
48. Harvey Gallagher
49. Blake Drury
50. Jed Hagan

ModernArtillery · Nov 25, 2022

This has been about a week in the making, but I've finally completed my final phantom draft. I've listed some interesting tidbits and called out some of the more challenging picks below, with some notes on who else I considered for those clubs. I'm sure there's a serious blunder or omission somewhere, but I had to get this out before Twomey

Round 1
1. GWS - Aaron Cadman
2. Brisbane - Will Ashcroft* (matched bid)
3. North Melbourne - Harry Sheezel
4. North Melbourne - George Wardlaw
5. Essendon - Mattaes Phillipou
6. Gold Coast - Reuben Ginbey
7. Hawthorn - Jhye Clark
8. Geelong – Ed Allan
9. West Coast - Elijah Tsatas
10. St Kilda - Cam Mackenzie
11. Carlton - Bailey Humphrey
12. Western Bulldogs – Oliver Hollands
13. West Coast – Jedd Busslinger
14. Melbourne – Harry Barnett
15. Sydney – Matthew Jefferson
16. GWS – Jacob Konstanty
17. Brisbane – Jaspa Fletcher* (matched bid)
18. Collingwood – Lachie Cowan
19. Sydney – Brayden George
20. GWS – Charlie Clarke

Round 2
21. GWS – Elijah Hewett
22. West Coast – Darcy Jones
23. Western Bulldogs – Lewis Hayes
24. GWS – Harry Rowston* (matched bid)
25. Essendon – Olli Hotton
26. Adelaide – Max Michalanney* (matched bid)
27. North Melbourne – Josh Weddle
28. Essendon – Alwyn Davey Jr* (matched bid)
29. Hawthorn – Coby Burgiel
30. Collingwood – Jakob Ryan
31. West Coast – Sam Gilbey
32. Collingwood – Henry Hustwaite
33. St Kilda – Max Gruzewski
34. Carlton – Isaac Keeler
35. Fremantle – Jed Adams
36. St Kilda – Noah Long
37. Port Adelaide – James Van Es
38. Melbourne – Phoenix Foster

Round 3
39. Western Bulldogs – Jaxon Binns
40. North Melbourne – Cooper Harvey
41. Hawthorn – Harry Lemmey
42. Hawthorn – Cooper Vickery* (matched bid)
43. Sydney – Harvey Gallagher
44. Fremantle – Billy Dowling
45. Fremantle – Jed Hagan
46. Gold Coast – Kaleb Smith
47. Carlton – Nick Sadler
48. Richmond – Jovan Petric
49. Geelong – Mitch Szybkowski

Remaining picks
50. Port Adelaide – Jason Gillbee
51. Richmond – Blake Drury
52. Adelaide – Hugh Bond
53. Essendon – Jayden Davey
54. Brisbane – Ethan Phillips

1. I've long been unsure what Melbourne will do with their first round selection. I get the impression that they're not sold on Jefferson, despite being heavily linked to him. Jason Taylor's comments yesterday suggested that they could use their second round pick to address their KPF needs and with a number of options likely to be available in that range (ie Keeler, Gruzewski, Foster, Lemmey, Scully etc), perhaps it makes sense for them to go in a different direction with that first selection.

Taylor also gave some indication that they felt confident a player they liked would be available at their second pick, but were nervous about their first selection. Reading between the lines, I'm taking a guess that Ed Allan is the guy they were hoping to get and I would've had him landing at Melbourne if available at their first pick.

Once I'd decided against Jefferson it came down to Barnett and Brayden George. I think Barnett represents a greater long term need and so he gets the nod in a very close call.

2. I always find Sydney hard to read and with two picks inside the first round it makes phantom drafting really difficult. Jefferson sliding through got the edge over Lachie Cowan with the first of their two picks and Brayden George nudged Darcy Jones for the second selection.

3. St Kilda's pick 33 on-wards has taken me days (which I've only had thanks to catching COVID while on parental leave) and is the part of the draft I'm least satisfied with.

4. The range of some of these players threw me for a loop. In earlier versions I had Max Gruzewski as a first rounder. He ends up at pick 33. I felt most comfortable about Keeler in the 40's but couldn't find an option that made more sense than him for clubs in the 30's. I still wouldn't be overly surprised if he landed in the first round. Jed Adams was another I liked in the 40's but ended up late second round. Harry Lemmey at 40 feels a bit too early. He doesn't really seem like a Sam Mitchell type, but I wanted a KPF there and he felt like the best option left on the board.

5. I couldn't find a club for Adam D'Aloia in the National Draft. I think this is probably closer to 50/50 than many of us expected. When I started the exercise, I didn't expect to land here, but unfortunately it was harder to find a landing spot for him than I anticipated.

6. No Munkara bid might surprise some too. I'm a bit skeptical that a club will bid. Similar to D'Aloia, I think it's probably closer to 50/50 than we think.

ModernArtillery · Nov 30, 2022

I've just been reflecting on the draft and pulled together a bit of a gimmicky read with some lessons/reflections. I'll have to make myself read this before finalising my 2023 pre-draft rankings next year to make sure it sticks!

If you can't run, you can't play.
I'm thinking of Adam D'Aloia and Mitch Szybkowski specifically here. It's pretty devastating to see guys who genuinely have the talent miss out on an opportunity because their running isn't up to the level. This is something that I've known for some time, but that didn't stop me falling into the Szibba trap. After working through my final phantom, it became clearer and clearer to me that D'Aloia was a strong chance to miss out. I think it's easy to fall into the trap of saying the clubs got it wrong, but the reality is, if you can't get your running up to the standard, you can't compete at the level.

Form is temporary, attributes are forever
I could call this the Harry Lemmey award, but there are a number of players who were favoured over their better-performed peers based on attributes rather than form. Testing and athletic data is such a key component to projecting the scope and success of these prospects and as an amateur who gets limited access to data outside of pre-season and combine testing, it's probably the biggest barrier I face in building my rankings.

There's a place for tweeners
I kind of expected some of the defenders in that 'not quite key position, not quite flanker' zone to be viewed less favourably. That just wasn't the case with Michalanney and Weddle selected as first rounders and Gruzewski and McCallum (and Hustwaite depending on how you view him) taken in the second round. In hindsight, perhaps I should've predicted that backman with both defensive and offensive capabilities would be valued highly, but I did anticipate them being graded a little lower on the basis of them being a little in between positions.

Bigger is better, even if bigger isn't better
You're certainly at an advantage if you're a key position size who's shown a little bit of promise vs a talented small who's performed well through their junior career. Van Es, Adams, Davies, Knobel, Lemmey, Scully, and Marshall all got a look-in through the second half of the draft, while Drury and Campbell had to wait for the rookie draft, and the likes of Hagan, Sadler, Lovelock, Ryan and Schuback all missed out. This isn't a knock or a complaint, I completely get it. It does create a bit of a dilemma when creating my own rankings though. I'm not really sure whether I should be excluding guys I rate higher, knowing they won't get drafted, for guys who I don't rate as highly, but know are more likely to be on a clubs radar.

Leave the Phantom's to Cal
Was the draft more fun when we didn't know every single first round pick before it happened? Took Kinnear's huge EFF YOU to actually create something interesting on that first night.

It's mostly a pointless exercise, but I'll probably pull together a draft winners and losers/grading post sometime tonight or tomorrow. Just for a bit of fun.

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