Myth: This is a weak draft

[-VC-]

I hear a lot of people saying this is a weak draft. I've seen a fair bit of junior footy this year - mainly TAC Cup and a fair bit from the Div 2 National Championships. I also caught a bit of the Div 1 Champs, but not too much so I admit I haven't seen much of the WA and SA players.

From what I have seen I think it's a bit unfair to call this a weak draft. It's certainly not very deep, but it's important that we don't get a lack of depth confused with weak. I can only figure that this is for two reasons:

1) The media said so.

2) Last year's draft was both incredibly strong and deep.

They're both pretty closely related points. The media are pretty quick to jump on this years draft because of how good last years was. If this was the second strongest draft ever then the media would still be proclaiming that it's no 2006. We need to be careful not to fall into the trap of calling it a weak draft because at the top end there's some very good talent on offer.

Depth is certainly an issue and that is the obvious downfall with this draft, but I'm just getting a little tired of hearing things from different fans (not necessarily Crows - just in general) "Why would we trade for X pick in a weak draft?" or people flippantly suggesting first round picks get traded based on their perceived weakness.

The thing is, Pick 10 in this draft is as good as most years in reality. I've got my eye on a couple of guys for the first two round that I would love to see on our list. I'm sure the club will value our early picks come trade time we won't be so desperate to offload Pick 10. If we get a good deal then go for it, but no need to be silly with it.

Later on, hopefully our recruiting team can find some gems as we tend to do, but they'll probably be few and far between this year.

 

[james Dean]

They say that the draft is good up until about pick 30 odd

 

[GlaCial]

Only time will tell how many juniors will go on a play at the highest level. Most junior coaches say how difficult it is to predict who will and who will not go on to play at the highest level. Attitude counts for a lot more than skill in most cases.

BTW, if last year was so strong, then why did Adelaide draft Sellar (18 y.o.), Tippett (20), MacKay (18), Campbell (22) and Gill (24)? 2 out of 5 were juniors. It's a pity all Adelaide's 2006 draftees picked up injuries in the pre-season. Is that just back luck, or something else?

 

[Vader]

BTW, if last year was so strong, then why did Adelaide draft Sellar (18 y.o.), Tippett (20), MacKay (18), Campbell (22) and Gill (24)? 2 out of 5 were juniors. It's a pity all Adelaide's 2006 draftees picked up injuries in the pre-season. Is that just back luck, or something else?

I think you need to look at the bigger draft picture, rather than looking at Adelaide in isolation.

Tippett was very much regarded as a "junior" (he was still 19yo on draft day). It's just that he came to the game so late, having come from a basketball background. From memory he'd played less than 20 games of Australian Rules football in his entire life before being drafted. Certainly the total was less than 50.
Gill was drafted because we needed a "plug and play" KPP forward to cover for the loss of Hentschel. I would definitely regard him as a "mature age" player.
Campbell was drafted for entirely different reasons. To understand his drafting, you need to examine the demographics of Adelaide's list. Thanks to the drafting talents of Adolph Ayres, we have a dearth of talent in the 22-23 year old age bracket - prior to Campbell we had just Jericho (useless), Porplyzia (drafed under NC), and Reilly. Campbell had been an outstanding performer for the redlegs and earned his drafting the hard way.

Reportedly, if we had one more draft pick, we would have used it on Mitchell Farmer (who is almost certain to be drafted this year) - another teenager.

If you look at the bigger draft picture, you will find that very few mature aged players (ie aged 20+) were drafted. Of the 81 players drafted, the following were aged 20 by draft day:
#36 Alwyn Davey
#64 Nick Gill
#71 Justin Westhoff
#74 Matthew Ferguson
#78 Bryce Campbell
#82 Aaron Edwards
#86 David Rodan (last selection used)

So.. only 7 out of 81 players had previously celebrated their 20th birthdays. Of those 7, 5 were amongst the last 11 draftees selected.

And MacKay didn't pick up his injury in the pre-season. He was injured playing in the SANFL during the season proper (albeit very early in the season).

 

[Slick Dog Johnson]

Edit: I'm blind.

 

[Cap]

heres hoping we can get two top 10 draft picks

(obviously due to the fact we have players leaving)

 

[-VC-]

Only time will tell how many juniors will go on a play at the highest level. Most junior coaches say how difficult it is to predict who will and who will not go on to play at the highest level. Attitude counts for a lot more than skill in most cases.

BTW, if last year was so strong, then why did Adelaide draft Sellar (18 y.o.), Tippett (20), MacKay (18), Campbell (22) and Gill (24)? 2 out of 5 were juniors. It's a pity all Adelaide's 2006 draftees picked up injuries in the pre-season. Is that just back luck, or something else?

As Vader pointed out, you're pretty insular with your views. Just because we took a couple of older players doesn't mean there wasn't some remarkable junior talent on offer.

The 2006 draft provided a rare ensemble of junior talent. It was nothing short of remarkable. Whether they become superstar AFL players is a different story, but at this stage we talk about drafts providing prospects because it's all about potential and upside.

Even the 2006 draftees (apart from Joel Selwood, who is already a gun) are still prospects. So Bryce Gibbs is an exciting prospect. Matthew Kreuzer from this years draft is an exciting prospect. My whole point is that this year there are still 20-30 prospects as good as most other years, but after that it's a bit bare. You'll always find a few that come good late in the draft but at this stage that looks a less likely prospect than other years.

 

[J-Ro-20]

heres hoping we can get two top 10 draft picks

(obviously due to the fact we have players leaving)

Id love it if we were able to secure 2 top 10 picks..

 

[WALL-e]

yeh 2 top 10's would be good but i think were looking at our 10th pick for C Wood. unfortunatly because im in vic i dont get to see many SANFL games a week, just 1 on a tuesday at 11.45 at night....yeah.

beside Ebert who i have seen play and am high on who else is out there for us to snatch up and load up on some home grown i wont leave talent.

 

[Damp Squarie]

High draft picks are over-rated.
There are a litany of players "> 30 or 40 pick" that have become good and great players.

 

[Geoffa32]

High draft picks are over-rated.
There are a litany of players "> 30 or 40 pick" that have become good and great players.

I agree

Once drafrted it is up to the Club to develop the player...

Gibbs wasa gun, hopefully he wil develop into an AFL gun player...But at Carlton who knows...Non of their other earlier picks ahve come on yet...ie they still finished enar to bottom...and have been for most of this decade..Similar story at Richmond...

 

[-VC-]

beside Ebert who i have seen play and am high on who else is out there for us to snatch up and load up on some home grown i wont leave talent.

From what I've seen (I've already said that it's not too much of the SA kids) then there's not a lot there from U/18 level. I've heard some mature aged guys talked about and I'll leave those assessments to people who get to watch more SANFL that I do! Ebert is a high prospect likely to go before our Pick 10 so we'd have to trade up to get him. Greenwood would be a handy second round selection but I think we could do better than that. He's a good even player - doesn't have too much about his game that stands out but doesn't have many flaws if you get what I'm saying.

I really like Petrenko and a few people have wood over McNamara but I barely noticed him when I saw him. Not saying he's no good, just didn't stand out.

High draft picks are over-rated.
There are a litany of players "> 30 or 40 pick" that have become good and great players.

Not that what I say is gospel but did you even read my original post? This draft lacks depth and those diamonds are probably going to be much harder to find this year. The whole point is that this draft drops off pretty steeply after the second round.

Yeah, there's plenty of 40+ players that have gone on to be fantastic and there'll be some this year, but this isn't really one of those drafts where you'll find too many. It's full of talent early on though.

 

[GlaCial]

As Vader pointed out, you're pretty insular with your views. Just because we took a couple of older players doesn't mean there wasn't some remarkable junior talent on offer.

What views are they exactly? I merely posed a question of why Adelaide drafted the players that it drafted if the draft was so strong. I am challenging Adelaide's drafting, not the strength of the draft.

 

[-VC-]

What views are they exactly? I merely posed a question of why we drafted the players that we drafted.

I thought you were making a suggestive comment rather than asking a question. My mistake.

The names of older players that Vader posted certainly does show that our techniques were interesting to say the least. Seven players 20 years or older in the whole draft and we took two of them...

 

[GlaCial]

The names of older players that Vader posted certainly does show that our techniques were interesting to say the least. Seven players 20 years or older in the whole draft and we took two of them...

My point exactly.

Adelaide will argue that Gill was coverage for Hentschel. It would be fair to say that Gill getting injured and only playing 6 games, meant that if that was the only reason to recruit him then it didn't quite work. Maybe it was bad luck he got injured, maybe it was bad fitness management?

Tippett showed something in the pre-season. Some on this forum want him to be a forward, some want him to be a ruckman. Either way big men typically take their time to develop, and so I don't have a problem drafting Tippett.

But Campbell got a game, and then was dropped. Doesn't make much sense to me recruiting a 22 year old mid-fielder if he is not ready to play straight away. Will he have to wait (lets say) 2 years before Goodwin and Edwards retire before he gets his chance. In which case he's 25 before he can establish himself. Don't get me wrong, I'm not doubting his ability. But I do feel uneasy about Adelaide's list management and talent ascertainment.

 

[jumpman5]

I agree

Once drafrted it is up to the Club to develop the player...

Gibbs wasa gun, hopefully he wil develop into an AFL gun player...But at Carlton who knows...Non of their other earlier picks ahve come on yet...ie they still finished enar to bottom...and have been for most of this decade..Similar story at Richmond...

Geoffa, you're an idiot....do you even watch any AFL footy...

You talk about Bryce Gibbs as if he's gone....he actually played 21 league games in his first year off footy, as an 18 year old...quite impressive i would've thought

Marc Murphy, as Nick Stevens went down early, took the No.1 tagger for the majority of the year and still continued to show class....you tell me how many 20 year olds got tagged week after week this year...

people like you have to understand that not every draft pick is Chris Judd...

your comments just infuriate me, complete lack of football knowledge....

 

[Geoffa32]

[/B]

Geoffa, you're an idiot....do you even watch any AFL footy...

You talk about Bryce Gibbs as if he's gone....he actually played 21 league games in his first year off footy, as an 18 year old...quite impressive i would've thought

Marc Murphy, as Nick Stevens went down early, took the No.1 tagger for the majority of the year and still continued to show class....you tell me how many 20 year olds got tagged week after week this year...

people like you have to understand that not every draft pick is Chris Judd...

your comments just infuriate me, complete lack of football knowledge....

My point is, that at Carlton there is no winning culture....Where is the development of the players they took two years ago...They get told "hang on boys dont play to your abilities"....and this sticks...

The proof will be in two years time wont it....If Carlton are top four I was wrong....But I doubt it

 

[jumpman5]

My point is, that at Carlton there is no winning culture....Where is the development of the players they took two years ago...They get told "hang on boys dont play to your abilities"....and this sticks...

The proof will be in two years time wont it....If Carlton are top four I was wrong....But I doubt it

is that what they're told is it???

please....

 

[earlsta]

2007 draft will be okay, but no where near the strength of last years, the top 16 of last year all are hyped up to become AFL superstars.

Look at someone like Everitt who was taken at 11, who knows how good he'll be in 5 years, but one things for sure he'll be very good.

Then you have guys like Shane Edwards at 26.
Bachar Houli was at 42 and racking tons of touches in the VFL.

In a few years we'll see how good last years draft is, and it will be pretty impressive.