Next weeks game bigger than a final

[dogwatch]

TAB has us $1.70 to Port $2.16.

That’s not good news. They’ve had us favourites the last two weeks and it didn’t get us over the line.

 

[Hoges64]

That’s not good news. They’ve had us favourites the last two weeks and it didn’t get us over the line.

Yep, I'll be having a crack at those juicy PA odds....

 

[X_box_X]

Lycett having only six days to recover from last week could be huge. Any news on his availability?

 

[Cudi]

Lycett having only six days to recover from last week could be huge. Any news on his availability?

Injury update: Lycett expected to be available for Bulldogs clash

Two Port Adelaide key players are expected to be available for selection to face the Bulldogs.

www.portadelaidefc.com.au

 

[manutd/dogs]

Yep, I'll be having a crack at those juicy PA odds....

I just chucked a bit on a Port-Lions multi at odds of 2.73 for the old win-win bet. My logic is I'm hoping to lose, and I only need one of the legs to fail for us to make Top 4, so I may as well multi them. Desperately hoping I've offered up enough of a fiscal sacrifice to the Footy Gods. If not, I'll collect my not insignificant 30 pieces of silver and spend them on something to assuage my heartbreak.

 

[Hoges64]

I just chucked a bit on a Port-Lions multi at odds of 2.73 for the old win-win bet. My logic is I'm hoping to lose, and I only need one of the legs to fail for us to make the Top 4, so I may as well multi them. Desperately hoping I've offered up enough of a fiscal sacrifice to the Footy Gods. If not, I'll collect my not insignificant 30 pieces of silver and spend them on something to assuage my heartbreak.

Can't like this enough. Our GF win in 2016 cost me $300 in bets as I kept chasing my losses as I bet against us each week! [emoji1]

 

[Whoyagot]

I think if we lose this game our confidence will be so low we’ll drop the final too so this game is definitely more important

 

[SupercededMan]

First things first, let’s not worry at all about margins and percentages. To do that assumes we lose and if we lose 3 games in a row going into the finals then it doesn’t really matter, we aren’t doing anything once we get there.

We have to win against Port. It’s on our home deck at Marvel where we play better than anywhere else so we should be expected to win. Yes if we bring the same attitude and approach that we brought to yesterday’s game then we aren’t winning no matter where it’s played but I fully expect a big turnaround and response from the whole team and led from the front by the Bont and our other leaders. Yesterday was totally unacceptable and I think the players all know that. The season is on the line and I am confident we will win.

However, it must start at selection. The Match Committee have been f**king around at selection for weeks now trying to be too cute and it has to stop now. Pick the best team, stop resting players and get the attitude right. Pick a proper ruckman and get some structure forward of the ball. Our defence has been put under too much pressure because our forwards haven’t been able to score when given the opportunity and our midfield has been slaughtered at clearances largely due to incompetent ruck work and unaccountable mids being far too aggressive and thinking they will win every contest. They have to help the defenders and stop the ball just waltzing out of the centre into the 6 on 6 open forward line.

All year we have defended well as a team but it relies on having the control of the midfield. This is where it starts and we must address this now.

Secondly, move Tim English forward for Christ’s sake. He is not a capable ruckman and is a massive part of the problem in the middle. He also looks tired again, same as this time last year. One handed half hearted attempts to stop opponents, unable to give extra effort. Put him up forward to help Naughton, and give Sweet a go if Stef can’t do it. We just have to have someone who can break even in the ruck. This is a non negotiable.

And finally our forwards have to take their chances when they come. Cody Weightman is the only reliable kick for goal at the moment and the only one that I expect to score a goal if he is having a set shot. Naughton has lost all confidence. This week at training that should be literally the only thing he does. Nothing else! Just kick from all over the ground and get some confidence back. Same with big Tim. Not sure about Jamarra at this point but so long as English plays forward I would probably give him the spot ahead of Hannan who doesn’t offer much at all.

It all starts at selection, get the team structure right first and then get the mindset right. I think if we fix those two things we are in a good position to beat Port. We are better than them, we just have to believe it and then play like we know we can.

I believe we can do it.

Go Dogs!!!!

Great post, but I want to address a comment that is made frequently on this board (and no, I''m NOT saying that people can't criticise).

The feeling that the MC and/or coach are being to cute or clever I don't think is accurate. I'd be gobsmacked if they weren't trying their damndest to put the best team on the track, every week.

Some decisions (many?) may be frustrating or puzzling, I get it. I am not necessarily taking you literally, BTW.

Like I said, great post.

 

[SupercededMan]

And while I’m at it, if Naughton is doing goal kicking practice, make it be with a man on the mark, not just kicking for goal with no one in front of him. The same for English. Sometimes they both seem to get too close to the man before they kick and it then causes them to pull the kick rather than kick straight through it.

It’s a simple thing but there is no point practicing just kicking with no one in front of you because that hardly ever happens in a game and especially to those two. They are usually taking set shots over a man on the mark so practice that way.

If they do take shots at goal, they could have Schache behind the goals, kicking it back. You know it would land on their chest without them having to move.

Bailey Dale, Little Fella, and Schache are pinpoint kicks. Not that I would move Schache, but maybe in "break glass' moments?

 

[BoydOHboyd]

I know West Coast is not very good but why is everyone expecting them to roll over to Brisbane? They’re in the same boat as us - win to guarantee yourself a proper chance. Or in their case, any chance. They’ll show up.

Worst case scenario we lose and finish 5th. We all forgetting we won the flag from 7th? Stranger things have happened and it was only 5 years ago.

 

[SupercededMan]

I just chucked a bit on a Port-Lions multi at odds of 2.73 for the old win-win bet. My logic is I'm hoping to lose, and I only need one of the legs to fail for us to make Top 4, so I may as well multi them. Desperately hoping I've offered up enough of a fiscal sacrifice to the Footy Gods. If not, I'll collect my not insignificant 30 pieces of silver and spend them on something to assuage my heartbreak.

How could you? :-(

By all means, but don't make it public ;-)

 

[The Inbetweener]

I know West Coast is not very good but why is everyone expecting them to roll over to Brisbane? They’re in the same boat as us - win to guarantee yourself a proper chance. Or in their case, any chance. They’ll show up.

Worst case scenario we lose and finish 5th. We all forgetting we won the flag from 7th? Stranger things have happened and it was only 5 years ago.

Beat Port and we have 2 locked in home (neutral) finals. Lose and finish 5th we’ll have to beat one or even both of Port or Brisbane at home to make the GF. Pretty big disadvantage finishing 5th vs top 4

 

[MYOB]

I really think if we lose this week, we'll go straight out the following week.

That would mean we would have lost 4 of out last 5 games.

 

[Jeff 1975]

Such a good year has come to this

 

[Del165892]

I just chucked a bit on a Port-Lions multi at odds of 2.73 for the old win-win bet. My logic is I'm hoping to lose, and I only need one of the legs to fail for us to make Top 4, so I may as well multi them. Desperately hoping I've offered up enough of a fiscal sacrifice to the Footy Gods. If not, I'll collect my not insignificant 30 pieces of silver and spend them on something to assuage my heartbreak.

I did the same. I consider it a form of "emotional insurance." If the worst happens at least I'll win enough money to buy myself a gram of yayo.

 

[Dog 36]

I just chucked a bit on a Port-Lions multi at odds of 2.73 for the old win-win bet. My logic is I'm hoping to lose, and I only need one of the legs to fail for us to make Top 4, so I may as well multi them. Desperately hoping I've offered up enough of a fiscal sacrifice to the Footy Gods. If not, I'll collect my not insignificant 30 pieces of silver and spend them on something to assuage my heartbreak.

Roll it over to the Southampton vs Man U game !

 

[X_box_X]

I did the same. I consider it a form of "emotional insurance." If the worst happens at least I'll win enough money to buy myself a gram of yayo.

I often make money at the expense of a Bulldogs loss and believe me, it does absolutely nothing to ease the pain. Similarly, when I lose money and the Bulldogs win, the fact I have lost money doesn't take away my excitement of having won. It's only recently when my stakes have increased that I realise this to be the case.

I.e.
In 2016 I lost $200 by backing Hawthorn to beat us in the SF. Still very happy. The financial loss meant nothing.
PF - Exactly the same stake lost. Still incredibly happy.
GF - Ditto.

I made $1,500 a few weeks ago by backing Geelong to beat us. I was physically sick for the next few days. Worse H&A loss ever. I'd have given that $1,500 back, and another $1,500 in an instant if it meant that result was reversed. Absolutely no questions asked. The fact I won that amount did absolutely nothing to ease the pain. I upped the stakes to see what effect it would have, and it made absolutely no difference.

I haven't repeated this stupid exercise of arbing with my emotions since because I know a financial result (profit or loss) has no impact whatsoever.

 

[X_box_X]

I get the sentiment and love for the club, but I must say I find it difficult to believe that there's no amount that would at least begin to assuage the pain of a loss? Say, for some crazy reason you wagered $250,000 on the outcome of the Cats game, winning half a mill and buying you a house? I know some say footy is a religion, but surely there's a number. Would make a good poll, actually...

That's why I experimented by upping the stakes by involving my most hated team and the team I am always most desperate to beat.

I'm not sure what parity of a Dogs loss and financial win would be, but I'm guessing other factors would have to be considered.
I.e. I reckon I speak for most here, if not everyone, that a loss in a season where you're travelling well (like 2021) emotionally affects you more than having a loss in a season where you're not travelling well (like 2014). If we were bottom four, in a rebuild, and struggling, I'd probably be happy to trade $100 for a loss.

 

[Del165892]

I often make money at the expense of a Bulldogs loss and believe me, it does absolutely nothing to ease the pain. Similarly, when I lose money and the Bulldogs win, the fact I have lost money doesn't take away my excitement of having won. It's only recently when my stakes have increased that I realise this to be the case.

I.e.
In 2016 I lost $200 by backing Hawthorn to beat us in the SF. Still very happy. The financial loss meant nothing.
PF - Exactly the same stake lost. Still incredibly happy.
GF - Ditto.

I made $1,500 a few weeks ago by backing Geelong to beat us. I was physically sick for the next few days. Worse H&A loss ever. I'd have given that $1,500 back, and another $1,500 in an instant if it meant that result was reversed. Absolutely no questions asked. The fact I won that amount did absolutely nothing to ease the pain. I upped the stakes to see what effect it would have, and it made absolutely no difference.

I haven't repeated this stupid exercise of arbing with my emotions since because I know a financial result (profit or loss) has no impact whatsoever.

The trick is to bet an amount you can't afford to lose. Like an amount that would cause you to be homeless, in debt, bankrupt, lose your wife and kids etc.
You'll be praying that we lose.

 

[Libbaaaa]

The optimistic side of me says Port have beaten nobody who is a true threat since they knocked off Richmond back in April (Tigers were still the standard then). They beat a Sydney team which had yet to turn the corner in late June and that is it. Granted if we hadn't just come off one of the worst losses in the Bevo era my optimism might be more warranted.

 

[Northernsoul74]

The optimistic side of me says Port have beaten nobody who is a true threat since they knocked off Richmond back in April (Tigers were still the standard then). They beat a Sydney team which had yet to turn the corner in late June and that is it. Granted if we hadn't just come off one of the worst losses in the Bevo era my optimism might be more warranted.

My concern is that Port are very physical in midfield with their rucks and the likes of Wines, Boak, SPP. Physicality has been an issue recently and if the attitude stats the same we’ll struggle.

 

[Merlins Revenge]

Thing that helps us somewhat is that Martin will be back, which really will help us in the clearances. Also, port don’t have a fast midfield.

 

[Libbaaaa]

My concern is that Port are very physical in midfield with their rucks and the likes of Wines, Boak, SPP. Physicality has been an issue recently and if the attitude stats the same we’ll struggle.

Wines is the barometer no doubt, he is fearless, almost to the point of recklessness.

 

[Chicago1]

I shan't allow us to lose. I just shan't!

 

[perro_loco]

That’s not good news. They’ve had us favourites the last two weeks and it didn’t get us over the line.

They will eventually get it right. Hopefully it is third time lucky