Opinion Non-Crows AFL 12: It's the confectionery with 1000 uses

[BRL121]

You control Nick Daicos, you control Collingwood. Simple.

He controlled himself tonight. Was walking in the last.

 

[pjcrows]

A month ago VFL media were banging on about 4 games in Victoria in the first week of finals.

There's a legitimate chance of none.

 

[119others]

doing the ladder predictor and picking the faves (Pies beat Hawks, Crows beat Pies, and assume Freo to beat Lions) there seems to be half a game difference at end of minor round between second (Cats) and sixth (Lions)

Crows
Cats
Pies
Suns
Freo
Lions

 

[George CantStandYa]

Hawks will get smashed.

No chance. Pies aren’t in great form. Hawks need to win to keep top 8 alive, they pushed us big time last night.

Hawks like the G, have good run and won’t play 4 tall forwards again.

 

[Trigger13]

that was a very bad result. Because Brisbane were at risk of falling to fifth — leaving us to possibly play GC if we finish top.

But now we are more likely to play Cats, Brisbane or Pies in the first final. Tough.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Collingwood are 5-5 against top 9 teams this year.

& their record in the past month has been poor losing to 3 of thr lle top 9 teams wirh 2 more to come in the next 2 weeks.

Hawks season on the line against the Pies next week so a huge game.

 

[Peter Doherty]

Wow, so if Hawks beat Pies and we beat them, Lions beat Freo, it’s likely Pies finish 5th which would be huge.

In the scenario above, if Pies beat Hawks they finish 4th, first final against Pies. Wow.

Come on Hawks

I'd be tipping Freo over Brisbane and Hawks over Collingwood.

 

[kirky]

that was a very bad result. Because Brisbane were at risk of falling to fifth — leaving us to possibly play GC if we finish top.

But now we are more likely to play Cats, Brisbane or Pies in the first final. Tough.

You want to win a flag then nothing better than beating all the sides who have won the last three flags. Simple.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

that was a very bad result. Because Brisbane were at risk of falling to fifth — leaving us to possibly play GC if we finish top.

But now we are more likely to play Cats, Brisbane or Pies in the first final. Tough.

There is no way of winning a flag without beating the best sides.

The result tonight isn't bad for us.

 

[Trigger13]

Well that was unexpected. All but ensures a top 2 spot. Getting excited and nervous

It did the complete opposite of that.

 

[BRL121]

No chance. Pies aren’t in great form. Hawks need to win to keep top 8 alive, they pushed us big time last night.

Hawks like the G, have good run and won’t play 4 tall forwards again.

They played their grand final against us and Day is finished. I hope you're right.

 

[George CantStandYa]

I'd be tipping Freo over Brisbane and Hawks over Collingwood.

Depends which Freo and Brisbane rock up. We know how flakey Freo are.

Hawks are definitely a chance.

 

[Peter Doherty]

Brisbane winning also makes it unlikely now for a team like Gold Coast to sneak in to 4th.

We're gonna have to beat three (but at least two) of Brisbane, Geelong and Collingwood to win the flag.

Personally not fussed by this.

 

[BRL121]

There is no way of winning a flag without beating the best sides.

The result tonight isn't bad for us.

It's clearly worse than the alternative, in that we are no longer assured of two home finals if we lose to the Pies, full stop.

 

[pjcrows]

There is no way of winning a flag without beating the best sides.

The result tonight isn't bad for us.

It actually makes the next month laser focused - keep winning. When you look at machinations and percentage too much it stuffs things around.

We will need to beat the best sides to win the flag. No one's falling in to a premiership.

 

[Eagleboy2011]

Geelong and the Suns are both well placed to challenge for the top 4 with their draw. 1 of them may sneak top 2.

 

[Soggy2112]

This is weird. We are now top, only one win plus percentage ahead of 6th! (Assuming expected results this week, and allowing for the GCS win over Essendon).

After tonight's result, a lot of possibilities exist. Bugger!

Now, we definitely can't afford to lose to Collingwood. If we do, then percentage is very important: we can't rest on the current percentage.

As long as we take care of business against North and West Coast then the % will be okay.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

It's clearly worse than the alternative, in that we are no longer assured of two home finals if we lose to the Pies, full stop.

Meh.

Pies no guarantee like us of top 2 either.

 

[ams4crows]

Anyone doing the maths? If we win the 2 games expected... are we guaranteed top 2?

No, Brisbane winning was actually bad for us, if Brisbane and Collingwood win their last 3 each we finish 3rd.

If we lose to Collingwood we need to hope the Hawthorn can beat either Brisbane or pies, or Freo can beat Brisbane in Perth. In order to guarantee top two, and that's if Geelong don't win all the next 4 games by 80+

 

[George CantStandYa]

If we beat Pies tonight’s result is a good one.

We would more than likely play Pies in a home final and the chances of playing them on GF day is less likely.

Meaning it’s more likely to be either Cats or an interstate side if we get there.

 

[pjcrows]

It's clearly worse than the alternative, in that we are no longer assured of two home finals if we lose to the Pies, full stop.

If we lose to the Pies, at home, and Brisbane take our spot in the Top 2 then so be it. They just beat them at the G and would deserve it.

 

[119others]

The other real negative from tonight is Pies will now be 110% fair dinkum vs crows. If they had won tonight and against Hawks and having a soft Dees in the last round they could afford to take the Crows game “less seriously”. Not any longer

Oh well, it will all come down to beating Pies after all

 

[Danger Zone]

Obviously won't happen but this would be the funniest reality

 

[BRL121]

Meh.

Pies no guarantee like us of top 2 either.

So you would prefer to not finish top two, not have two home finals, and show how great we are by winning the flag anyway? I would prefer to maximise the odds.

 

[spenze]

You control Nick Daicos, you control Collingwood. Simple.