Opinion Non-Crows AFL 13: Offseason

[MrBarry]

They should have beaten us at AO a couple of mths ago. We got very lucky.

I don't buy this narrative, we piled on 5 or 6 goals straight when the game was there to be won and then yes we sat back after getting the lead. But the game was an arm wrestle

 

[FR0GGY]

They should have beaten us at AO a couple of mths ago. We got very lucky. If they beat Freo

Did they get lucky that we missed our first 6 shots?
It’s like looking at free in the last qtr and saying it cost the game.

 

[119others]

Did they get lucky that we missed our first 6 shots?
It’s like looking a free in the last qtr and saying it cost the game.

I am trying to be big picture here Frogman. Lions had 28% more I50s and 28% more scoring shots. They are very material differentials.

They relentlessly attacked in the last half of the fourth qtr and butchered the ball. Not normal Lions play. Certainly an outlier. IIRC the predictor model had them winning relatively comfortably.

You don’t often see respectful coach Fagan say in the press conference “we should have won that game”.

Look I would love nothing more than beating them wherever but my honest opinion is they are the team to beat.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

I am trying to be big picture here Frogman. Lions had 28% more I50s and 28% more scoring shots. They are very material differentials.

They relentlessly attacked in the last half of the fourth qtr and butchered the ball. Not normal Lions play. Certainly an outlier. IIRC the predictor model had them winning relatively comfortable.

You don’t often see respectful coach Fagan say in the press conference “we should have won that game”.

Look I would love nothing more than beating them wherever but my honest opinion is they are the team to beat,

They have thrown up some stinking performances this year, can be incosisten
yet our biggest loss has been 19 points

 

[George CantStandYa]

I don't buy this narrative, we piled on 5 or 6 goals straight when the game was there to be won and then yes we sat back after getting the lead. But the game was an arm wrestle

Well you should. They dominated inside 50s after we kicked those 5, they kicked what 8 points? Including Neale running into an open goal. Hell even Nicks said we got lucky.

 

[George CantStandYa]

Did they get lucky that we missed our first 6 shots?
It’s like looking at free in the last qtr and saying it cost the game.

23 scoring shots to 18, 8 points in the last quarter, they dominated inside 50s after we hit the lead but missed sitters. Clearly we were lucky they missed.

 

[119others]

They have thrown up some stinking performances this year, can be incosisten
yet our biggest loss has been 19 points

100% agree re some bad losses both home (Pies, Dees etc) and away (Suns game).

I just feel come September they won’t have those down weeks. They have been in the big dance the last 2 years, and around the mark for about 5-6 years now. They clearly know what’s required to win in September. If they finish top 2 you would be brave betting against them making the GF again. And finishing top 2 is now in their own hands.

Hopefully a cracking September coming up as there is some real quality even in the bottom half of the 8.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

100% agree re some bad losses both home (Pies, Dees etc) and away (Suns game).

I just feel come September they won’t have those down weeks. They have been in the big dance the last 2 years, and around the mark for about 5-6 years now. They clearly know what’s required to win in September. If they finish top 2 you would be brave betting against them making the GF again. And finishing top 2 is now in their own hands.

Hopefully a cracking September coming up as there is some real quality even in the bottom half of the 8.

I can see them losing last 2 of 3

Freo in Perth = loss
Hawks = 50/50

 

[119others]

I can see them losing last 2 of 3

Freo in Perth = loss
Hawks = 50/50

I certainly hope you are right and they do drop one as means they will miss top 2. Freo is the biggest risk IMO.

Very unlikely they lose 2

 

[Viva la Mattner]

I certainly hope you are right and they do drop one as means they will miss top 2. Freo is the biggest risk IMO

Wouldn't write off the Swans this week either, they would love nothing more than to throw a spanner in the works

 

[Geoffa32]

I don't buy this narrative, we piled on 5 or 6 goals straight when the game was there to be won and then yes we sat back after getting the lead. But the game was an arm wrestle

And we have not played out a last quarter like that since.

 

[GreyCrow]

Ladder Watch R23

Adelaide play West Coast and should win and go to 64 points and 147%
Brisbane play Sydney and should win to go to 62 points and a %114
Geelong play Essendon and should move to 60 with a % above 140
Collingwood stay on 60
Freo play Port - lets say Freo win they go to 60 points %115
Gold Coast play Carlton at home and should win to go to 56 points %125
Hawthorn move to 5th on 56 points
Giants play North and should win and go to 56 points and %118
Bulldogs play Melbourne and should win and go to 52 points and %138

 

[Kenny Dee]

Anyone know if we're training today and where about if we are?

 

[Rotayjay]

Another piece of trivia from Swamp

How does this guy pull these facts out? AI?

 

[SugarShane]

Extra 3 days and we have to fly back from Perth. Big advantage for Pies

Pies at home on Thursday, us in Perth as the late Sunday game. You couldn't make this stuff up.

 

[FR0GGY]

23 scoring shots to 18, 8 points in the last quarter, they dominated inside 50s after we hit the lead but missed sitters. Clearly we were lucky they missed.

Scoring shots I agree, when the misses were doesn’t matter.
They were lucky we missed in the first otherwise the game might have been done.

 

[PeterSalt]

How does this guy pull these facts out? AI?

No idea

He's been doing long before AI was available though

 

[SugarShane]

How does this guy pull these facts out? AI?

First, access to a large statistical database (I think he does stats for a broadcaster as his job?)
Second, skill at using programming/code to know what to ask

I haven't done programming for ages and it'd depend on the language but once you have access to the database it's as simple as writing something like:
get all matches if team=Adelaide and ladderpos =1 and =18. Or maybe it has a provision for "bottom" for when there were fewer than 18 teams.

 

[Coopers]

I don't buy this narrative, we piled on 5 or 6 goals straight when the game was there to be won and then yes we sat back after getting the lead. But the game was an arm wrestle

We also couldn't kick straight in an unusually incompetent display for the first half

 

[Coopers]

Did they get lucky that we missed our first 6 shots?
It’s like looking at free in the last qtr and saying it cost the game.

The non free for Izak vs the GC absolutely did!

 

[Coopers]

How does this guy pull these facts out? AI?

I wonder if it's unsupervised learning/anomoly detection.

So you point a data mining tool at a data set and it goes and finds things that are unusual or correlated.

I used one once on a data set (trains) and it told me cool things like the number of wagons was correlated strongly with other data fields like train length and number of axles.

I didn't try very hard tbh. I guess it worked.

 

[Ciao Giacomo]

How does this guy pull these facts out? AI?

In 2017 we played the Kangas in Hobart.

We were 6-0, they were 0-6. Surely this was 1 v 18?

I forget what the result ended up .

 

[Scorpus]

Why do you say that? Are there rumours of Cripps not rating Voss?

Anecdotally I reckon he's put in some really really shit performances shortly before the coach gets sacked just to ensure the job is done

 

[119others]

In 2017 we played the Kangas in Hobart.

We were 6-0, they were 0-6. Surely this was 1 v 18?

I forget what the result ended up .

They were 1-5 and 15th according to the AFL website ladder backdating functionality

 

[jo172]

North not even close to last!