Prediction Our Chances in the 2019 finals

[Dogs Rule]

11 and showers, might bring the bathers and the sunscreen. I was expecting snow, so bonus.

 

[hoianbulldog]

I think I would rather finish 8th than 7th.

The way it's looking, if we finish 8th, it's likely we will play the Pies. While that may be tougher than playing an out of sorts GWS on our home away from home (Spotless), I reckon we can beat them.

The SF will then be a lot less daunting. We'd likely play Geelong at the MCG instead of Brisbane or WCE in Perth.

A perfect finals draw would be:

W1 - GWS
W2 - Geelong
W3 - Collingwood
W4 - Brisbane

That would give us the best chance, IMO. Very hard for that to play out, though.

Someone break it down for me - what results need to happen for that finals run to play out?

Gws aint finishing top. Put the bong down and enjoy the ride.

I wanna win it from 8

 

[hoianbulldog]

11 and showers, might bring the bathers and the sunscreen. I was expecting snow, so bonus.

That is not good. Makes things very unpredictable.

Who will cope best.

 

[Dogs Rule]

That is not good. Makes things very unpredictable.

Who will cope best.

Last time I checked Adelaide are the fragile ones, we’re the side that’s kicked 33 goals to four in six of our last eight quarters.

 

[Arkangel]

The current weather forecast for Sunday, and what the weather actually ends up being like on Sunday, are not necessarily similar. A lot can change in a week.

 

[Braybrook Son]

I’d prefer to swerve the Tigers at all costs.

Nah we have the wood on them and they know it

 

[Oliver G]

Going to be 11 and showers in Ballarat on Sunday... not ideal

Early forecast is 11 and showers in the morning. So hopefully cleared by game time. Winds west to southwesterly 20-25kmh.

 

[Wallaby]

I’d prefer to swerve the Tigers at all costs.

As a Richmond fan - can I just say - 'Yes, please'.

Look, on the day anything can happen - anyone can win or lose.

But we're f*********** petrified of you. Now you're in the finals, we feel like the guy at the mafia meeting, where everyone is just being polite and respectful at this stage, when suddenly the door creaks open (slight key change in background music), the room goes a bit quiet, and we don't even have to turn around - we know who just walked in. And he's looking at us.


Mind you - a Tigers-Dogs GF would be awesome.

 

[MYOB]

As a Richmond fan - can I just say - 'Yes, please'.

Look, on the day anything can happen - anyone can win or lose.

But we're f*********** petrified of you. Now you're in the finals, we feel like the guy at the mafia meeting, where everyone is just being polite and respectful at this stage, when suddenly the door creaks open (slight key change in background music), the room goes a bit quiet, and we don't even have to turn around - we know who just walked in. And he's looking at us.


Mind you - a Tigers-Dogs GF would be awesome.

I can't see us playing in 1st week of finals.

IF we make it, for us to play Richmond, Collingwood have to win, and if Collingwood win, and IF we make it, we will finish 7th.

 

[revo333]

Hawthorn beating WC wouldn't be a bad thing for us, Might kill Adelaides motivation a little if Hawthorn get a % boost.

 

[_Mike_]

Make the finals with 12 wins rates the season as a massive improvement from last year. Anything from there is a bonus IMO. Next year with further improvement sees us back in contention, poised to make a huge play for a flag in 2021.

Not a statement that I don’t think we’ll make it, or do any good but the way they’ve played the second 1/2 of this season gives me the sense that they’re starting to gel together.

 

[Braybrook Son]

I can't see us playing in 1st week of finals.

IF we make it, for us to play Richmond, Collingwood have to win, and if Collingwood win, and IF we make it, we will finish 7th.

So you think after our last two weeks form in particular, you don’t think we can beat the Crows on their current form on a ground they’ve never played on?

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Last time I checked Adelaide are the fragile ones, we’re the side that’s kicked 33 goals to four in six of our last eight quarters.

Adelaide looked good against West Coast a few weeks ago, take it one week at a time.

 

[Next Waiting]

So you think after our last two weeks form in particular, you don’t think we can beat the Crows on their current form on a ground they’ve never played on?

That's not what he is saying. He is saying that it is very unlikely that Richmond and the Dogs will match up in the first week. More likely Richmond and 1st or Richmond and Bombres and the Dogs v Giants.

 

[Dogs Rule]

Adelaide looked good against West Coast a few weeks ago, take it one week at a time.

For sure, I just think we have every reason to go into this confident we can give a very good account of ourselves.

 

[BIG_BONTS]

Make the finals with 12 wins rates the season as a massive improvement from last year. Anything from there is a bonus IMO. Next year with further improvement sees us back in contention, poised to make a huge play for a flag in 2021.

Not a statement that I don’t think we’ll make it, or do any good but the way they’ve played the second 1/2 of this season gives me the sense that they’re starting to gel together.

Yeah, totally agree. For a group of this age and experience we are tracking very nicely! It's clear we are building the make up of a quality side again, not far off Top 4 and seriously challenging over the next 2 years. A big preseason/trade season and who knows..

Don't be surprised if we beat Adelaide, we have the juice to get to a prelim! Our best is better than the middle of the road sides in the 8

 

[JTCWBFC]

I think hypothetically we could play a home final if Gold Coast somehow beat GWS & we get a win.

If we had a home final v GWS would the AFL let us play it at Marvel or would it be at the G?

 

[Anja_Nees]

Adelaide looked good against West Coast a few weeks ago, take it one week at a time.

They did, but WC looked a bit lifeless that week too.

If we come out with the same attitude we did against GC, Stk etc we will drop it but we’ll be on edge this week so I doubt it this time.

Played this ground six times in two years inc JLT, don’t have to travel to get there and Adelaide have average form on the road. They also know that they have to do more than just beat us to be any chance.

We really have it all before us.

 

[Anja_Nees]

I think hypothetically we could play a home final if Gold Coast somehow beat GWS & we get a win.

If we had a home final v GWS would the AFL let us play it at Marvel or would it be at the G?

Doubt they would let us. In any event GC are basically a VFL side now. If anything will play GWS into form...

 

[MYOB]

So you think after our last two weeks form in particular, you don’t think we can beat the Crows on their current form on a ground they’ve never played on?

By us, I'm saying Richmond and Dogs

 

[Anja_Nees]

As a Richmond fan - can I just say - 'Yes, please'.

Look, on the day anything can happen - anyone can win or lose.

But we're f*********** petrified of you. Now you're in the finals, we feel like the guy at the mafia meeting, where everyone is just being polite and respectful at this stage, when suddenly the door creaks open (slight key change in background music), the room goes a bit quiet, and we don't even have to turn around - we know who just walked in. And he's looking at us.


Mind you - a Tigers-Dogs GF would be awesome.

It’s interesting - based on past results we would appear to have the wood on Richmond but we never go into any game against them expecting to win.

Being honest, much like when Geelong has the wood on Hawthorn for what seemed like forever, when the chips were down in finals Hawthorn got it done so I suspect in a final at the G Richmond would be confident.

If we make it in then it’s going to be one seriously unpredictable finals series.

 

[2121]

Please don't * up and lose to Adelaide I don't want to either of us to make finals.

 

[Bont2Bruce]

I think hypothetically we could play a home final if Gold Coast somehow beat GWS & we get a win.

If we had a home final v GWS would the AFL let us play it at Marvel or would it be at the G?

Gold Coast would have to not just win but win by 10 goals (and we'd have to win by more than 10 goals in Ballarat).

We've previously been denied home final games at the Docklands (most recently the EF from 2015 where we finished 6th and hosted 7th placed Adelaide at the MCG) and I wouldn't expect anything to have changed at AFL house.

EDIT: The collective amount we'd have to win by and GWS would have to lose by is about 90 points

 

[CarnTheScray]

Gold Coast would have to not just win but win by 10 goals (and we'd have to win by more than 10 goals in Ballarat).

We've previously been denied home final games at the Docklands (most recently the EF from 2015 where we finished 6th and hosted 7th placed Adelaide at the MCG) and I wouldn't expect anything to have changed at AFL house.

EDIT: The collective amount we'd have to win by and GWS would have to lose by is about 90 points

I'd rather a home game at MCG anyway, we play well there and more supporters can attend.

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

I actually think we need to just focus on the game this weekend against Adelaide.
We all remember our elimination final against West Coast in 2016 when they went in already looking forward to the next game they would play after beating us comfortably... we know what happened then and we've all been around long enough to know that footy chews up dreams and spits them out. Nothing is certain.
We need to show Adelaide the utmost respect or it will be our final game of 2019.