Analysis Our forward line - KPF depth?

[Yoda_]

Would kill for a fwd line like the Hawks.

You know who makes or breaks the forward line at the Hawks?

Jack Gunston.

He is such a smart, uncanny footballer who gets to the right spots, gets on his bike and just works up and back, up and back. If Paddy Ambrose could be that guy for us (this position needs to be able to play tall or small and chase and tackle, something Crameri didn't really do too well) hence why he (Gunston) has been such an acquisition for the Hawks.

 

[Yoda_]

If we are to go anywhere this year, we need at least 70 goals from Carlisle/Hurley/Daniher (assuming Hurley gets some time forward). If they don't get there, we are simply going to struggle to kick a winning score each week.

 

[eth-dog]

If we are to go anywhere this year, we need at least 70 goals from Carlisle/Hurley/Daniher (assuming Hurley gets some time forward). If they don't get there, we are simply going to struggle to kick a winning score each week.

Nah, not that many. If we get more than 50 between Daniher and Carlisle we'll be fine

 

[Yoda_]

Nah, not that many. If we get more than 50 between Daniher and Carlisle we'll be fine

50 goals should come from the abundance of smalls that roll through the forward line at any stage throughout the year.

 

[eth-dog]

50 goals should come from the abundance of smalls that roll through the forward line at any stage throughout the year.

If we play 24 games this season I'd be hoping for 350-odd goals.

 

[Yoda_]

2013: (Hawthorn: Roughead 72, Gunston 46 - Fremantle: Mayne 37, Pavlich 25)
2012: (Sydney: Goodes 37, Reid 31 - Hawthorn: Franklin 69, Roughead 41)
2011: Geelong: Podsiadly 52, Hawkins 27 - Collingwood: Cloke 69, Brown 23)

We need at least 70 goals from our two main targets. A bonus is having a small kick 30+ goals on top of your KPF's (think Stevie J, Breust, Wingard) which we need to spread the load between Chapman, Merret (x2) Winderlich, Watson, Zaka as the guys most likely to produce this output.

 

[hurlygurdy]

Goddard is going to be the lifeline for us this year. Unless the unimaginable happens and the forward lines stays fit, Goddard is going to be the go to man. So the next question is do we have the midfield depth to cope?

 

[rines]

I agree hurlygurdy.. goddard will have to play semi-permanent forward imho.. smart leader and can kick a big bag if given opportunity..

Melksham back will help too..

 

[Howard Moon]

You know who makes or breaks the forward line at the Hawks?

Jack Gunston.

He is such a smart, uncanny footballer who gets to the right spots, gets on his bike and just works up and back, up and back. If Paddy Ambrose could be that guy for us (this position needs to be able to play tall or small and chase and tackle, something Crameri didn't really do too well) hence why he (Gunston) has been such an acquisition for the Hawks.

Gunston such a tough matchup, has a midfielders engine but great hands and smarts. You play a mid on him and he will out mark, play a def on him and he will run them off their feet. Bit like the hoff, Voldt to an extent, if Ambrose can be this guy we are half way there.

 

[hurlygurdy]

Gunston such a tough matchup, has a midfielders engine but great hands and smarts. You play a mid on him and he will out mark, play a def on him and he will run them off their feet. Bit like the hoff, Voldt to an extent, if Ambrose can be this guy we are half way there.

So your solution to our forward line issues is to turn our rookie into an elite player? Living up to your name sake there. Awesome.
Back in the real world, we have the cattle and i think we even have the depth. It's making them live up to their potential and work together that is the trick. I think we will see a similar situation to last year where we get a lot of forward entries early in the year, but a poor conversion rate. As the season progresses i'm pretty excited to see what this lot can do. I expect Licka to dominate at some point, followed by JD then JC, then later in the year i'm thinking we will all be regarding TBC as the second coming...

I like the way we are shaping up this year. The teams that take themselves seriously don't aim for peak form in round one. As such it will be really interesting to see how much North beat us by. After their crap performances last year i bet you they are aiming for a killer start to the season. Even if we play well i bet we go down. Our focus will be forging this forward line/midfield cohesion. You can't do that in training, you need match day intensity. Game by game we will start to gel and lift. I wouldn't be surprised to be 0 and 4, but after that i wouldn't be surprised to go on a huge winning streak. I hope the coaches back the boys in and play the same guys even as we are losing. If they constantly mix things up we will take longer to come good, and like i said, its not an issue of the individual players, but an issue of cohesion.

 

[BrunoV]

I wouldn't call it shaping and while I like your optimism it feels like such a long way back from a likely 0 and 4 start with a forwardline built around a baby giraffe, a 32 year old who is not even a chance of playing every game and one of the most injury prone players to ever make it to 100 games.

We keep hearing about the impact of the training load on pre-season performances but I don't really understand why there has not been any noticeable improvement in ball movement or forward structure.

 

[hurlygurdy]

I wouldn't call it shaping and while I like your optimism it feels like such a long way back from a likely 0 and 4 start with a forwardline built around a baby giraffe, a 32 year old who is not even a chance of playing every game and one of the most injury prone players to ever make it to 100 games.

We keep hearing about the impact of the training load on pre-season performances but I don't really understand why there has not been any noticeable improvement in ball movement or forward structure.

The giraffe is covered by TBC. Chappy is covered by the likes of Kommer/Howlett/Hardi. To be honest i never had great hopes of big game day outputs from Chappy, i've always been more excited by his educational contribution and his vital experience come finals. Licka is covered by Goddard to my mind. Goddard leaving the midfield is hopefully covered by the progression of Myers.
To date my version of "shaping up" is mainly in regards to JD and to a lesser extent the way JC played against GC. I think he kicked 3? But the way he did it was like going for a walk in the park. Just popped up here and there with minimum effort. Imagine what he will be like when he gets settled and reaches peak match fitness? We will start to see those marks over the top of the pack a la the final moments of the Carlton game last year. As the forward structure starts to take shape, we will see JD and JC given opportunities to go one on one against their opponents. Once that happens our forward line will become a source of envy for other clubs.

Ball movement in the preseason with senior players out or rusty is likely to suffer.
I didn't watch the Richmond game except for a few minutes at the beginning of the third quarter. There were two long bombs into the forward 50 that came straight back out again. The culprits were Stanton and Zaka. Maybe it was done for purposes of working on forward pressure inside the 50? I don't know... Maybe a far sharper Richmond was simply stifling options up the ground. Either way i'm not particularly bothered. People need to remember that we have quite new structures in place and our last two opponents have been highly regarded teams. If instead we had smashed the Saints and Dogs would that have indicated we were on track for a flag? Meh...

 

[Howard Moon]

So your solution to our forward line issues is to turn our rookie into an elite player? Living up to your name sake there. Awesome.
Back in the real world, we have the cattle and i think we even have the depth. It's making them live up to their potential and work together that is the trick. I think we will see a similar situation to last year where we get a lot of forward entries early in the year, but a poor conversion rate. As the season progresses i'm pretty excited to see what this lot can do. I expect Licka to dominate at some point, followed by JD then JC, then later in the year i'm thinking we will all be regarding TBC as the second coming...

I like the way we are shaping up this year. The teams that take themselves seriously don't aim for peak form in round one. As such it will be really interesting to see how much North beat us by. After their crap performances last year i bet you they are aiming for a killer start to the season. Even if we play well i bet we go down. Our focus will be forging this forward line/midfield cohesion. You can't do that in training, you need match day intensity. Game by game we will start to gel and lift. I wouldn't be surprised to be 0 and 4, but after that i wouldn't be surprised to go on a huge winning streak. I hope the coaches back the boys in and play the same guys even as we are losing. If they constantly mix things up we will take longer to come good, and like i said, its not an issue of the individual players, but an issue of cohesion.

eh, i wasnt suggesting turning a rookie into an elite player but go ahead with your diatribe if you makes you feel better.

i was suggesting that TYPE of player helps to make a functioning fwd line and if he can be that TYPE who leads up the ground, runs all day making an option, our fwd line structure is half way there.... in the real world.

 

[BrunoV]

eh, i wasnt suggesting turning a rookie into an elite player but go ahead with your diatribe if you makes you feel better.

i was suggesting that TYPE of player helps to make a functioning fwd line and if he can be that TYPE who leads up the ground, runs all day making an option, our fwd line structure is half way there.... in the real world.

Think that's exactly right but then you'd also want to work out whether we've simply convinced ourselves that aimless bombing to tall targets is a good system. The frightening thing is that our system is either so shot that we can't get leading targets into play or we don't value that style of play at all (despite the fact that you can probably count on one hand the number of times big matches of footy have been won by key forwards taking pack marks in the last 15 years).

 

[Howard Moon]

Think that's exactly right but then you'd also want to work out whether we've simply convinced ourselves that aimless bombing to tall targets is a good system. The frightening thing is that our system is either so shot that we can't get leading targets into play or we don't value that style of play at all (despite the fact that you can probably count on one hand the number of times big matches of footy have been won by key forwards taking pack marks in the last 15 years).

its probably over simplisitc of me and without statistical basis but it seems that we score a lot of our goals on the break, slicing through the middle at speed scoring goals from midfielders or by spotting up forwards who are running back to goal. When it works we look great but if our drive gets stifled or we have a laboured approach allowing the opponents to get back we just revert to the same old bomb to square as you say. It should be plan c but its plan b... plan b should be many leading players dragging their opponents out of the area opening up the 50 but we have that dysfuncton where either 3 fwds lead to the same spot or not at all.

Maybe we just lack the natural fwd or two who knows where to go and what to do?

 

[rines]

In modern AFL, 100 pts will win 'most' games if you play well defensively.. so you need, give or take, 14 goals per game..

I guess our planning would be to average something like (per game):
Daniher - 2 goals
Carlisle - 2 goals
Small/Perm Forwards (Chappy/Winders/Hardingham/Kommer/Merrett/Jetta) - 3 goals
Resting Mid's/Rucks up foward (used as leading targers) (Zaka/Goddard/Watson/Heppell/TBC/Ryder) - 3 goals
Goals from Midfield (Myers/Melksham/Stanton/Howlett/Hocking) - 3 goals
Defenders pushing forward (myers/dempsey/fletcher/Hibberd)- 1 goal

So I have every confidence that JD and Carlisle will average 4 goals a game between them.. I am equally confident of at least 3 goals from our combined small forwards/stoppages in the F50. I also think our midfield contains many naturally attacking players and last year we averaged 4.2 goals from the midfield, so that is fine, equally with a defender bobbing up at some point to kick one..

Really then it boils down to what happens with the Resting Mid/Rucks to see if we get that consistency...

I think we can make it work with the players we have.. but need consistency across the board..

 

[hurlygurdy]

In modern AFL, 100 pts will win 'most' games if you play well defensively.. so you need, give or take, 14 goals per game..

I guess our planning would be to average something like (per game):
Daniher - 2 goals
Carlisle - 2 goals
Small/Perm Forwards (Chappy/Winders/Hardingham/Kommer/Merrett/Jetta) - 3 goals
Resting Mid's/Rucks up foward (used as leading targers) (Zaka/Goddard/Watson/Heppell/TBC/Ryder) - 3 goals
Goals from Midfield (Myers/Melksham/Stanton/Howlett/Hocking) - 3 goals
Defenders pushing forward (myers/dempsey/fletcher/Hibberd)- 1 goal

So I have every confidence that JD and Carlisle will average 4 goals a game between them.. I am equally confident of at least 3 goals from our combined small forwards/stoppages in the F50. I also think our midfield contains many naturally attacking players and last year we averaged 4.2 goals from the midfield, so that is fine, equally with a defender bobbing up at some point to kick one..

Really then it boils down to what happens with the Resting Mid/Rucks to see if we get that consistency...

I think we can make it work with the players we have.. but need consistency across the board..

I agree, but i'm a little more all or nothing i think. Either we get a structure together than doesn't get rebounded to death or we don't. A good structure with the players that we have will yield more goals than you are suggesting. A continuation of the present structure will mean far less goals for us and far more for the opposition from rebounds. The forwards need to learn to play for each other, it's really as simple as that. Modern defensive structures will destroy players that are working alone no matter how good they are.

 

[hurlygurdy]

eh, i wasnt suggesting turning a rookie into an elite player but go ahead with your diatribe if you makes you feel better.

i was suggesting that TYPE of player helps to make a functioning fwd line and if he can be that TYPE who leads up the ground, runs all day making an option, our fwd line structure is half way there.... in the real world.

Yes i too would like the player you described "has a midfielders engine but great hands and smarts. You play a mid on him and he will out mark, play a def on him and he will run them off their feet" They are dime a dozen, would you like a Dangerfield to go along with that order?

 

[84859300]

its probably over simplisitc of me and without statistical basis but it seems that we score a lot of our goals on the break, slicing through the middle at speed scoring goals from midfielders or by spotting up forwards who are running back to goal. When it works we look great but if our drive gets stifled or we have a laboured approach allowing the opponents to get back we just revert to the same old bomb to square as you say. It should be plan c but its plan b... plan b should be many leading players dragging their opponents out of the area opening up the 50 but we have that dysfuncton where either 3 fwds lead to the same spot or not at all.

Maybe we just lack the natural fwd or two who knows where to go and what to do?

This, this and this. I was sick of it happening all last year......and was the main source of kicking it onto the head of the smallest player in the F50.

With the small part of the practice match against the Tigers I got to see, this was the way we were scoring goals. In fact the only mark I saw in the F50 was when Jetta grabbed one and had a set shot from 25 out on a slight angle. For the little opportunities this guys gets for us, he has to be kicking @ 100% and not hitting the post on the easiest of shots. Unless Winders can stay fit, or we get some goals out of young Merrett.....we're asking jake and Joe to kick plenty of goals for us.

 

[hurlygurdy]

Just watched the first quarter against the Tigers. Ball movement was great, beat the Tigers easily in the midfield for the quarter.
Real lack of vision and awareness by all players near and inside the 50 zone. Early on there were multiple opportunities to square the ball up to loose men 30 out but no one was looking.
The Tigers had a real defensive game plan which didn't help our cause, but even so, if we had kicked straight we would have been ahead on the score board. JD finally took a mark on the siren in range which was disallowed
As the quarter progressed you could see a conscious shift towards not bombing it long, but the Tigers always had numbers back. The wind seemed really tricky also.
The defense did okay given Hurley wasn't there.

 

[BomberFan355]

I agree, after I watched the whole game I was far less worried about how we are traveling than what I was just seeing the score board.

 

[yaco55]

Will say it again. Game plan is the issue. We are moving the ball too much by feet - Eventually the the opposition's next line comes up and effectively stops the play - And this is often on a flank which means we can only kick to one side of the forward line - And of course our forwards are reluctant to lead, space is congested and we hit long balls - Gotta use more hands to move the ball,especially in the corridor - This means that the ball is continually in movement, which then gives forwards the opportunity to lead and create space. We will get nowhere if we continually chip the ball around by foot.

 

[hurlygurdy]

Will say it again. Game plan is the issue. We are moving the ball too much by feet - Eventually the the opposition's next line comes up and effectively stops the play - And this is often on a flank which means we can only kick to one side of the forward line - And of course our forwards are reluctant to lead, space is congested and we hit long balls - Gotta use more hands to move the ball,especially in the corridor - This means that the ball is continually in movement, which then gives forwards the opportunity to lead and create space. We will get nowhere if we continually chip the ball around by foot.

I'm not so sure about that. It seems to me that against the tigers we were running into their extra man once we hit half forward and as a result we were trying to go over the top to a more even contest. That might have worked if we had some sort of forward pressure happening, and in fact the first four forward entries that happened in the first few minutes resulted in boundary throw ins in the pocket. That's not a bad result if you have your stoppages sorted. I actually had the feeling that if we were a little sharper we could have kicked four goals to nothing early on which would have given the day a different flavour.
Last year we had huge numbers of forward entries but with a comparatively poor conversion rate due to the lack of marks taken. This forward line has more marking potential replacing Hurley with JC. I guess TBC and JD are somewhat like for like. If we could repeat last years first half of the year forward system then i believe we would kick more goals this year. I remember that as the season progressed Hurley was getting more space and lots of opportunities but just couldn't hang on to the mark! Something we were doing must have been right.
Is it possible that bombing it long was the result of a defensive press by the opposition pushing out from the 50? If so, then we almost had it cracked last year, but just lacked the marking power. After all what the hell is the opposition going to do as plan B in that scenario? That sort of defensive press is the last option against an opponent you are treating with the utmost respect. That stands to reason because we were beating everyone at that point.

 

[Howard Moon]

Yes i too would like the player you described "has a midfielders engine but great hands and smarts. You play a mid on him and he will out mark, play a def on him and he will run them off their feet" They are dime a dozen, would you like a Dangerfield to go along with that order?

gumby was that player too you know! they dont all have to be stars to have the tank to lead up the ground all day giving structure

 

[hurlygurdy]

gumby was that player too you know! they dont all have to be stars to have the tank to lead up the ground all day giving structure

You really think Gumby had that sort of tank? After almost never completing a preseason over his entire career? Granted, it was the player we wanted him to be... I see what you are saying in general, but i do think the sort of player that can play that role effectively is by definition a top shelf player. Licka can do it if he stays on the park. Goddard can do it. But it is that sort of level player that you need. Ambrose making the team as that style of player is a pipe dream at this point in time...