Our Run Home

[Godfrey Jones]

Sydney (away) - WIN - Our history suggests we should win. I am confident. We will be desperate to not lose three in a row, and possibly out of the eight. And they stand between us and a top four spot. Very important game.

Adelaide (home) - WIN - at the G, they have not been in great form. we can do it. they will be coming off a week's break though

Kangaroos (telstra dome) - LOSS - could go either way. if we win both the sydney and crows game, i'd pencil in a loss, knowing us.

Essendon (MCG) - Win. Simple,

Hawks (MCG) - Loss.

Port Adelaide (away) - Win. we travel well and they haven't been travelling well at all.

Sydney (home) - Win. memories of last year where we played them in the split round then, then met them in round 21, then met them first week of finals, and killed them all 3 times

Fremantle (away) - Win.

So that;s 6 more wins, taking us to 13 wins.

using ladder predictor, the ladder finish would be:

1 cats
2 hawks
3 bulldogs
4 collingwood
5 adelaide
6 north
7 brisbane
8 sydney

you might be shocked at seeing sydney so low, but they have a shocking run home, including to losses to us !!

Negatives:
-No Rocca
-No Reid...it's more bad for him than bad for the team really, because he is only showing signs at this stage. He isn't that Valuable to our team yet. in the future, yes he is likely to be
-niggling injuries, fraser, leon, didak, clarke....will they playout the season through injury or will they recover after this week?


Positives:
- We get a week's break now to recharge
- Other than the Carlton game, we have been in pretty good form the last 5 weeks.
-Presti is back, Cloke is back
-toovey is in great form

Get excited people, the dream is still alive



COLLINGWO8D


------

so now....

first week of finals:

1 cats
2 hawks
3 bulldogs
4 collingwood
5 adelaide
6 north
7 brisbane
8 sydney


cats v pies = pies would annihilate the cats. they are the team i'd most like to play
hawks v dogs = hawks would win.

crows v swans = swans
north v lions = lions

2nd week:
cats v lions = cats
dogs v swans = dogs

3rd week:
dogs v pies = pies would win, look how close we came!! dogs would choke they cant handle the finals

hawks v cats = blockbuster game, cats would come out on top


FINAL:

Collingwood Versus Geelong

Result? Helloooooooo Number 15 !!!!!!!


GO PIES!

 

[Kirby]

You missed the St Kilda game at the G.

I admire your optimism!

 

[Godfrey Jones]

You missed the St Kilda game at the G.

I admire your optimism!

you're right

so thats 14 wins!!

 

[unplugged]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Adelaide have their mid-season break thing at the same time as us, giving us even more of a chance to take them down

 

[Godfrey Jones]

haha i knew i should have put more research into it.

 

[JohnD]

Pies currently paying $4.25 to miss the 8.

I'd have thought that was more likely than Pies beating Swans in 2008.

That's way overs.

 

[sneakydaycrawler]

We will lose to Adelaide (midfield + defence to strong), North Melbourne (somehow we will lose) and Hawthorn (midfield supremacy).

 

[Andy C]

We should tank and go for draft choices as we have no chance this year.

The draft is strong and if we can get as top 6 or 7 pick in the draft, we might get a decent player and boost our stocks.

The two WA players Natinui and Rich are meant to go 1 and 2 and the Vic Metro won the under 18 comp so we might be able to just about get the best 1 or 2 under 18 players in Victoria.

That would be a huge win.

That is, of course, as long as we don't pick Chris Egan or Richard Cole mark 2.

 

[Godfrey Jones]

We should tank and go for draft choices as we have no chance this year.

The draft is strong and if we can get as top 6 or 7 pick in the draft, we might get a decent player and boost our stocks.

The two WA players Natinui and Rich are meant to go 1 and 2 and the Vic Metro won the under 18 comp so we might be able to just about get the best 1 or 2 under 18 players in Victoria.

That would be a huge win.

That is, of course, as long as we don't pick Chris Egan or Richard Cole mark 2.

yeh, you do that mate.

meanwhile...if we win the flag this year please do not celebrate with us.

 

[JohnD]

On 7 wins now with the following run home to cobble together 5 more (although 11 wins could get you 8th spot)

Syd - away
Adel - home
North
Ess
Hawks
Saints
Port - away
Sydney - telstra dome
Freo - away

wins
Essendon
Saints
Freo

losses
Sydney x2
Hawks

50/50
Crows
North
Port

Pies will need to win two of the Crows/North/Port matches to ensure they play in September and I submit that $4.25 is way too generous.

 

[Pie eyed]

yeh, you do that mate.

meanwhile...if we win the flag this year please do not celebrate with us.

Shhh....turn off the lights and all pretend we're not here until he goes away.

 

[Smoky]

Shhh....turn off the lights and all pretend we're not here until he goes away.

Shhh.... has he gone yet?

 

[sneakydaycrawler]

On 7 wins now with the following run home to cobble together 5 more (although 11 wins could get you 8th spot)

Syd - away
Adel - home
North
Ess
Hawks
Saints
Port - away
Sydney - telstra dome
Freo - away

wins
Essendon
Saints
Freo

losses
Sydney x2
Hawks

50/50
Crows
North
Port

Pies will need to win two of the Crows/North/Port matches to ensure they play in September and I submit that $4.25 is way too generous.

Im not sure if you know this, but we beat them three time last season. This up coming game they are going to be with out Adam goodes.

No Goodes = No Sydney

 

[Pie eyed]

Im not sure if you know this, but we beat them three time last season. This up coming game they are going to be with out Adam goodes.

No Goodes = No Sydney

Hopefully Goodes will appeal and get two weeks one in round 14 and one in round 21......


(by the way that's a joke for any touchy swans readers...we can beat you'se with or without your excitement machine machine...)

 

[Campbell's Chunky]

Adelaide (home) - WIN - at the G, they have not been in great form. we can do it. they will be coming off a week's break though

no we wont, we play geelong on the friday night before you play syd.

 

[DWil6]

Pies will need to win two of the Crows/North/Port matches to ensure they play in September and I submit that $4.25 is way too generous.

Well I expect you'll be getting on it if it's so generous!! Good luck... you'll need it.

 

[Mental Magpie]

Sydney (away) - WIN - Our history suggests we should win. I am confident. We will be desperate to not lose three in a row, and possibly out of the eight. And they stand between us and a top four spot. Very important game.

Adelaide (home) - WIN - at the G, they have not been in great form. we can do it. they will be coming off a week's break though

Kangaroos (telstra dome) - LOSS - could go either way. if we win both the sydney and crows game, i'd pencil in a loss, knowing us.

Essendon (MCG) - Win. Simple,

Hawks (MCG) - Loss.

Port Adelaide (away) - Win. we travel well and they haven't been travelling well at all.

Sydney (home) - Win. memories of last year where we played them in the split round then, then met them in round 21, then met them first week of finals, and killed them all 3 times

Fremantle (away) - Win.

So that;s 6 more wins, taking us to 13 wins.

using ladder predictor, the ladder finish would be:

1 cats
2 hawks
3 bulldogs
4 collingwood
5 adelaide
6 north
7 brisbane
8 sydney

you might be shocked at seeing sydney so low, but they have a shocking run home, including to losses to us !!

Negatives:
-No Rocca
-No Reid...it's more bad for him than bad for the team really, because he is only showing signs at this stage. He isn't that Valuable to our team yet. in the future, yes he is likely to be
-niggling injuries, fraser, leon, didak, clarke....will they playout the season through injury or will they recover after this week?


Positives:
- We get a week's break now to recharge
- Other than the Carlton game, we have been in pretty good form the last 5 weeks.
-Presti is back, Cloke is back
-toovey is in great form

Get excited people, the dream is still alive



COLLINGWO8D


------

so now....

first week of finals:

1 cats
2 hawks
3 bulldogs
4 collingwood
5 adelaide
6 north
7 brisbane
8 sydney


cats v pies = pies would annihilate the cats. they are the team i'd most like to play
hawks v dogs = hawks would win.

crows v swans = swans
north v lions = lions

2nd week:
cats v lions = cats
dogs v swans = dogs

3rd week:
dogs v pies = pies would win, look how close we came!! dogs would choke they cant handle the finals

hawks v cats = blockbuster game, cats would come out on top


FINAL:

Collingwood Versus Geelong

Result? Helloooooooo Number 15 !!!!!!!


GO PIES!

Oh how nice that reads!

Let's see how the boys go according to your script!!!

 

[MarkT]

We will not win the flag. We are not good enough unfortunately. We are at least short a ruckman and probably 2 midfielders as well as lacking in AFL ready depth. The latter doesn’t bother me so much because we have a fairly young list. Injuries will test us now though. Statistically we would be up against it just on the injury count if you look at flag winners this century.

We will make the 8 but miss the top 4. We could get on a roll in September but it is VERY difficult to win 4 finals, let alone do it with the injury count we will have had by September let alone the fact our list isn’t complete or loaded with enough mature quality.

We are a very good draft or probably two away.

 

[Kirby]

We will not win the flag. We are not good enough unfortunately. We are at least short a ruckman and probably 2 midfielders as well as lacking in AFL ready depth. The latter doesn’t bother me so much because we have a fairly young list. Injuries will test us now though. Statistically we would be up against it just on the injury count if you look at flag winners this century.

We will make the 8 but miss the top 4. We could get on a roll in September but it is VERY difficult to win 4 finals, let alone do it with the injury count we will have had by September let alone the fact our list isn’t complete or loaded with enough mature quality.

We are a very good draft or probably two away.

Very similar views to mine.

 

[EB&W Pieman]

On 7 wins now with the following run home to cobble together 5 more (although 11 wins could get you 8th spot)

losses
Sydney x2
Hawks

I'm not as gung ho as many on here about our chances of beating the Swans twice, but I do believe that we would be favourite to beat them in Melbourne. I think that, at worst, you should put that game in your 50/50 list.

Nice analysis BTW.

 

[sirlothie]

13 wins won't be enough for top 4 I don't think...

 

[pongo_3931]

Great post Godfrey.

Thanks for the read.

 

[Optimax]

Vey good post godfrey.

And to provide some historical back up, in 03 we were 6 and 6 going inot the bye with injuries coming out of the waazoo and no one rating us. We then went on to win 9 of the enxt ten only losing to brisbane and finished second

So its is ery much possible we could come back from this

 

[CENTERMAN]

Vey good post godfrey.

And to provide some historical back up, in 03 we were 6 and 6 going inot the bye with injuries coming out of the waazoo and no one rating us. We then went on to win 9 of the enxt ten only losing to brisbane and finished second

So its is ery much possible we could come back from this

What a stat ! Confidence is back up now.

 

[Hells K1tch3n]

We will not win the flag. We are not good enough unfortunately. We are at least short a ruckman and probably 2 midfielders as well as lacking in AFL ready depth. The latter doesn’t bother me so much because we have a fairly young list. Injuries will test us now though. Statistically we would be up against it just on the injury count if you look at flag winners this century.

We will make the 8 but miss the top 4. We could get on a roll in September but it is VERY difficult to win 4 finals, let alone do it with the injury count we will have had by September let alone the fact our list isn’t complete or loaded with enough mature quality.

We are a very good draft or probably two away.

Are these two thoughts not totally contradictory...

Unless you are suggesting we draft mature age players?

I propose a we play a buch of really bad TV game shows!

Lets assume that like last year we finish in the 5-8 region, but play well in finals, but miss out on a prelim birth cause as Mark has suggested we are a Ruckman and a midfielder or 2 short...

We will obviously need to trade for a redy made ruckman to fill that void, theres not many AFL quality ruckman at age 18.

LETS MAKE A LIST!!!!!

Firstly Ruckman in the AFL (BOLD are untouchable/to old, Italic worth looking at)
Griffen
Maric
Moran
Tippet (ruck/fwd)
Charman
Luenberger
Cloke
Hampson
Kruezer
Hille
Laycock
Bellchambers
Warnock
Sandilands
West
Ottens
Blake
Bailey
Campbell
Renouf
Taylor
White
Meesan
Johnson
Brogan
Lade
Putt
Simmonds
Graham
Gardnier
King
Kosi
McEvoy
Rix
Jolly
Everitt
Minson
Street
Seaby
Cox

Not that bad of a list. But there is really only a few that id bother to look at. Either of the hawks current playing ruckman in Campbell or Taylor, Seaby from the Wet Toast who could be enticed by being a number 1 ruckman, warnock who we are told wants to come back to Melbourne, and lastly Hille just so he stops playing so well against us.

Of those, most are all worth 1st round picks or better, and only West Coast, and possibly Fremantle. We were apparently interested in Warnock over the last two years, but freo might be wary of trading with us after the medhurst/pick 8 trade.

Now the midfielders you were asking for Mark, theres too many to make a list of all of them so lets think of who springs to mind, that fills our needs.

Needs: Inside
Quick hands
Above average foot disposal

Top Shelf:
McLean: If Melbourne are looking down the barrel of a rebuild, we might be able to jag him.

Kerr: Does he want to leave WA? I doubt it, but surely we have to try...

Cross: Im pretty sure id explode in my pants if we managed to acquire cross from the bulldogs, cant see it happening tho....

Mid Shelf:
Prismall: Im gonna keep posting stuff bout him till we atleast show an interest.

Knights: Hasnt got the greatest of disposal, but gets the ball in packs

Thomas: Matty Thomas from port hasnt been getting much of a run, might be one to look at.

PSD
If Cousins comes back to AFL, the club he nominates is the club that will get him. Hopefully his relationship with Malthouse brings him to Collingwood. I dont care what he does off the field (as long as he's clean) but he would make us such a better team on field.

Who do we trade?

Do we have enough depth in the forward line to offload Rusling?

Do we have enough depth in the backline to offload Obrien or Maxwell

How much value do 1st round draft picks have in what is being touted as a very good, and very deep draft, just before the new franchises enter the arean and take alot of early picks (I subscribe to this, like fremantle they will have to make some very weighted calls to get some established players)

Ill leave it at that, I know what id do, and i know that the powers that be at HQ wont agree with me, but Im just a humble AFL fan.