Pass mark for a pick

[Lingsface]

With people talking about what pick a player was worth etc, what is the pass mark in terms of a players career to a pick? In terms of what sort of player would you need to pick for it to meet your expectations for that pick.

Pick 1- Rozee/ Heeney
Pick 2- L Parker/ Sinclair
Pick 3-5- Gunston/ J Kelly
Pick 5-10- T Kelly/ Barrass
Pick 10-15- Coniglio/Treloar
Pick 15-20- B Hill/D Swallow

Pick 1-3 and Pick 8-15
Bont/ Cameron/ Petracca/ Neale

Early First round and Mid second round
Mitchell/Steele

 

[Shane Heard]

James Hird. Pick 79.

Sometimes the draft system throws you an unplayable googly.

 

[WillHayward]

With people talking about what pick a player was worth etc, what is the pass mark in terms of a players career to a pick? In terms of what sort of player would you need to pick for it to meet your expectations for that pick.

Pick 1- Rozee/ Heeney
Pick 2- L Parker/ Sinclair
Pick 3-5- Gunston/ J Kelly
Pick 5-10- T Kelly/ Barrass
Pick 10-15- Coniglio/Treloar
Pick 15-20- B Hill/D Swallow

Pick 1-3 and Pick 8-15
Bont/ Cameron/ Petracca/ Neale

Early First round and Mid second round
Mitchell/Steele

 

[Elixuh]

With people talking about what pick a player was worth etc, what is the pass mark in terms of a players career to a pick? In terms of what sort of player would you need to pick for it to meet your expectations for that pick.

Pick 1- Rozee/ Heeney
Pick 2- L Parker/ Sinclair
Pick 3-5- Gunston/ J Kelly
Pick 5-10- T Kelly/ Barrass
Pick 10-15- Coniglio/Treloar
Pick 15-20- B Hill/D Swallow

Pick 1-3 and Pick 8-15
Bont/ Cameron/ Petracca/ Neale

Early First round and Mid second round
Mitchell/Steele

Cats will be fine this year. Losing to Essendon in a pre-season game shouldn't be cause for panic. You don't need to do this.

 

[Lingsface]

Cats will be fine this year. Losing to Essendon in a pre-season game shouldn't be cause for panic. You don't need to do this.

this is good gear!

 

[WillHayward]

Worst thread ever

 

[HairyO]

James Hird. Pick 79.

Sometimes the draft system throws you an unplayable googly.

1990 is possibly the worst draft ever too. So few players got anywhere with the clubs they picked (only 3 made triple figure games, and only 19 made double figure games).

I still think Luke Breust is better. Most clubs probably just assumed that at some point Essendon were going to draft Hird so ignored him. Swans could have got Breust at any time for nothing.

 

[Lingsface]

Worst thread ever

And you are the top contributor!

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

OK. Reality check time for draft gurus and 'got to hit the draft hard' proponents.

Here's my mediocre/half-arsed analysis of what pick 1, 10 and 20 would have got you between 2000-2020 (so 21 drafts). In other words, if i quickly ranked those 21 players taken with the respective picks, this player would be right in the middle.

Pick #1 - Brett Deledio - if you prefer, the others I had around that range with fairly similar careers were: Ugle-Hagan (basically impossible to rank right now), Cooney, Swallow, Rayner and Gibbs. Whatever way you slice it, it doesn't exactly blow you away.

Pick #10 - Nakia Cockatoo. I'm not joking. It was him, Sam Power or Jason Laycock. Jake Melksham, and the Nathan Brown who played for Collingwood were well above par. Holy moly.

Pick #20 - We're into Callum Coleman-Jones territory, with Dean Polo and Paul Bower comfortably in the top 10. Cripes.

Note: I didn't really rank all 21 of the pick 10s and pick 20s... as you can see it was a fair challenge making it to 11th.

 

[Fadge]

OK. Reality check time for draft gurus and 'got to hit the draft hard' proponents.

Here's my mediocre/half-arsed analysis of what pick 1, 10 and 20 would have got you between 2000-2020 (so 21 drafts). In other words, if i quickly ranked those 21 players taken with the respective picks, this player would be right in the middle.

Pick #1 - Brett Deledio - if you prefer, the others I had around that range with fairly similar careers were: Ugle-Hagan (basically impossible to rank right now), Mooney, Swallow, Rayner and Gibbs. Whatever way you slice it, it doesn't exactly blow you away.

Pick #10 - Nakia Cockatoo. I'm not joking. It was him, Sam Power or Jason Laycock. Jake Melksham, and the Nathan Brown who played for Collingwood were well above par. Holy moly.

Pick #20 - We're into Callum Coleman-Jones territory, with Dean Polo and Paul Bower comfortably in the top 10. Cripes.

Note: I didn't really rank all 21 of the pick 10s and pick 20s... as you can see it was a fair challenge making it to 11th.

It really does show that draft pick numbers are by no means the be all and end all.

 

[Lingsface]

It really does show that draft pick numbers are by no means the be all and end all.

Yes, this is what I am trying to get a feel of, draft picks trades for top players are always the talk. I want to see what people are expecting as the pass mark if they get these picks, what are they realistically expecting in return and of course there is the lottery that you may get someone above this mark or below.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

It really does show that draft pick numbers are by no means the be all and end all.

It's a crapshoot. Not the players' fault, just the nature of the process.

With pick 10 for example, history would indicate you're looking at maybe a 25-30% chance of getting a long-term, top line player: I'm including Dangerfield, Daniher, Green, Blakey, McKay and possibly Davis in that group. Add in the likes of Nathan Brown, Jake Melksham and Jack Bowes and it becomes about 42-43% chance of getting a solid 180-220 senior games type. That's the good news.

The bad news is that means there's a better than even money chance you pick up someone who produces less than Sam Power (123 games, 37.4% win rate, 0 Brownlow votes). It's almost a toss of the coin if you'll get someone whose career even matches the injury derailed Nakia Cockatoo and Jason Laycock. A lot of pick 10s didn't even reach those lofty heights.