Peaking players and bottoming out players

[Dunn - Well Done]

chears (pillager). thats great i understand now so im meant to make up his 3rd score to see whether his $$ value will increase or decrease.

And instead of initial value for working at (new value) i should use current value instead. So if he scores 100 this week then his price still diminishes by 8 k.

Fanfooty have his BE at 113 ?!?!?

 

[pillager]

113 is clearly wrong unless of course they somehow know what the magic number will be next week...

You can check the formulas above based on this weeks changes in values.

 

[dejaSLATTERY]

Has Judd bottomed out and is he closing on full fitness?
Anybody been watching his games closely?

Thinking of making the bird --> judd trade this week

 

[pillager]

Judd has a break even of 46 this week and Carlton play Melbourne.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Judd only played 84% of TOG less than the last 2 weeks prior.
Bird to Judd you must have money

IF K.CORNES SCORES
60: will cost 402 k
80: will cost 409 k
100: will cost 416k
112: will cost 420.5 k
119: will cost 423k
125: will cost 425k

just trying at my new skills thanks to pilager

 

[nooB]

Has Judd bottomed out and is he closing on full fitness?
Anybody been watching his games closely?

Thinking of making the bird --> judd trade this week

I cant see him dropping/rising dramatically from here on in; though i too think if i dont get him this week i wont ever get him this cheap again. problem is the cash cows havent exactly peaked yet so I dont want to off them just yet

 

[Kid A]

probably better off waiting on bird as he will still rise significantly.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Judd has a break even of 46 this week and Carlton play Melbourne.

and yet its 35 at fanfooty and he is also 4-5k more exoensive on fanfooty. yet they are so wrong.

 

[dejaSLATTERY]

I cant see him dropping/rising dramatically from here on in; though i too think if i dont get him this week i wont ever get him this cheap again. problem is the cash cows havent exactly peaked yet so I dont want to off them just yet

Yeah thats what I'm thinking too.

Bird just doesn't look to be very consistent (also swans playing the cats this week) and I reckon this will be the cheapest Judd will be all season.

Ran out the game against the pies well too with a massive last qtr.

Cash is no problem got $500k in the kitty, my midfield is pretty weak atm with Cross, Stevens, Houli, Palmer, Morton, Jack, Bird and Dempsey.
Dropped out of the top 1000 last week too

 

[54Dogs]

Here is the formula for this year folks:

Magic Number = 4028*

Recent Market value = (Average of three most recent scores * Magic Number)

New Value of player = (Current value * 0.74) + (Recent market value * 0.26)

Break Even = ((Current Value/Magic Number) * 3) - 2 most recent scores.

*Keep in mind the magic number keeps changing week to week, so these formula's will give you a rough idea of projected values and break evens.

Nice post Pillager. I've been looking for this number.

The reason DT talk and Fan Footy are wrong is they are using the magic number which was set for the original prices which was 4343.

Therefore if a player averaged 100 his original price would be 434,300 but if he continued to average 100 his price would gradually drop towards 402,800.

 

[sherrin_footy]

do people see goodwin as a keeper for the year?
not sure whether i should trade him to a gun, such as kane cornes...

 

[pillager]

Thanks 54Dogs.

In addition, the formulas seem to have changed slightly. Instead of 75/25, it's closer to 74/26.

The magic number after round 3 values was approximately 4135.

After round 4 it's approximately 4028... so who knows what it will be next week???

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Goodwin is a gun just look at his first 3 scores. He had a massive pre season and this is because of him being the new captain. He is hard to match up on and wins every one on one when the ball is kicked to him at a 50/50

 

[Walesy]

Nice post Pillager. I've been looking for this number.

The reason DT talk and Fan Footy are wrong is they are using the magic number which was set for the original prices which was 4343.

Therefore if a player averaged 100 his original price would be 434,300 but if he continued to average 100 his price would gradually drop towards 402,800.

That's the ticket.

4343 was the original number.
4138 - Round 1
4038 - Round 2

So salaries are coming down...

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Birds current price 138 600
Round 5 scores and prices afterwards:
30 - 141 300
50 - 148 300
70 - 155 300
90 - 162 300

He isnt going to increase any time soon but he is such a good player and usually is a ball magnet and tough who lays tackles like Kirky. it isnt the case yet and 70k can be made if you trade him to Wonamerri and maybe upgrade someone else with the cash