Analysis Phantom draft consensus

[ferrisb]

UPDATE (9-Dec) - I have updated the consensus with most of the recent phantoms/mocks. Every time I update it, another one drops somewhere. I've had to draw a line so that I get something out before draft night. Note this now incorporates 16 phantoms, most updated in the last couple of weeks. Note 2: I can't work out if my academy shading is super cool or the worst colour change since Michael Jackson...

Hi all, I got bored at work so I decided to look at a number of phantom drafts and amalgamate them into a 'consensus ranking'.

I'm not sure this deserves its own thread, but my efforts last year generated some healthy discussion. Also, I think the exercise is especially useful this year as the lack of u18 form and exposure means rankings are likely to be more variable than usual.



Notes:

• I used 11 phantoms in total (10 'power rankings', 1 mock draft)
  • From BF: PMBangers, Davo-27, eDPS, Knightmare, Chris25, andleanback, Smythe, Batsyy, ianh
  • Outside BF: Cal Twomey, Draft Central
• Some phantoms had as few as 20 selections, some had as many as 50
• Numbers in brackets show the range (min-max) they were picked across the phantoms
• Players ranked on 1) How many phantoms they made THEN 2) Avg selection #
• * means selected in only 1 phantom
• Orange are academy/FS. Not sure I got them all (5-Oct: have updated as per feedback in this thread. thanks all)

 

[ferrisb]

Please point out any more phantoms I can add. The results should be better with more data.

I plan to periodically post updated consensus rankings, so we can which players are 'rising' and 'sliding'.

As we get closer to draft day, some power rankings will be replaced by mock drafts. This may be a better prediction of where players do go, but arguably a worse predictor of where they should go.

 

[theGav56]

B Walker and Western are Fremantle NGA

 

[PMBangers]

Newchurch is also Adelaide NGA

Love this collation btw, very good to get consensus view

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

Great work on putting this together.

Thilthorpe is the interesting one for me.Seems to have dropped off the perch a bit of late.

Phillips also seems to divide opinion amongst everyone.

 

[Mt Isa Mustang]

Lake is Gc academy

 

[Pharaoh]

Great effort

 

[Giant Strides]

Lake is Gc academy

Actually, he's not. Through the AFL assistance package GCS are able to pre-list him, but he's an NT player (currently playing in SA), not a Gold Coast Academy player.

Same difference in the end, though, in terms of being tied to a specific club for draft selection.

 

[Mt Isa Mustang]

Actually, he's not. Through the AFL assistance package GCS are able to pre-list him, but he's an NT player (currently playing in SA), not a Gold Coast Academy player.

Same difference in the end, though, in terms of being tied to a specific club for draft selection.

Yeah that’s correct. Jeffries is noted, Lake isn’t, they should be the same.

they’ve spent a bit of time at the club since the package was announced butwouldn’t have had anywhere near thecontact of Alex Davies. Bit like the nga players.

 

[smurfin]

Nice.
I did something similar while supposed to be working.
You have looked at a couple more drafts than me and have much prettier formatting.
Feels like the top 5 is fairly solid, then maybe up until 12 or so, then anything could happen.
Don't think it would be a bad draft to have a few picks around the 20s and 30s. Even later the player your club rates could still be there.

 

[Kezza86]

Great work on putting this together.

Thilthorpe is the interesting one for me.Seems to have dropped off the perch a bit of late.

Phillips also seems to divide opinion amongst everyone.

Thilthorpe missed the last few games. Playing in a bad westies team in a shortened season would have been frustratin.

 

[BALAM]

Nice work. Will PHILLIPS to Essendon. Jack GINNIVAN to be the steal of the draft, he is a genuine footballer and an accurate kick at goal. Can find them.

 

[Howzat1]

UPDATE (5-Oct) - Have added in two more phantoms (now 11) and highlighted extra Academy/FS picks.

Hi all, I got bored at work so I decided to look at a number of phantom drafts and amalgamate them into a 'consensus ranking'.

I'm not sure this deserves its own thread, but my efforts last year generated some healthy discussion. Also, I think the exercise is especially useful this year as the lack of u18 form and exposure means rankings are likely to be more variable than usual.

View attachment 978037

Notes:

• I used 11 phantoms in total (10 'power rankings', 1 mock draft)
  • From BF: PMBangers, Davo-27, eDPS, Knightmare, Chris25, andleanback, Smythe, Batsyy, ianh
  • Outside BF: Cal Twomey, Draft Central
• Some phantoms had as few as 20 selections, some had as many as 50
• Numbers in brackets show the range (min-max) they were picked across the phantoms
• Players ranked on 1) How many phantoms they made THEN 2) Avg selection #
• * means selected in only 1 phantom
• Orange are academy/FS. Not sure I got them all (5-Oct: have updated as per feedback in this thread. thanks all)

Agree very good analysis imo

 

[Howzat1]

Nice work. Will PHILLIPS to Essendon. Jack GINNIVAN to be the steal of the draft, he is a genuine footballer and an accurate kick at goal. Can find them.

Agree - happy if the Dees get Ginnivan. Class and footy IQ

 

[ferrisb]

Jack GINNIVAN to be the steal of the draft, he is a genuine footballer and an accurate kick at goal. Can find them.

Plus if he kicks the winning goal, you can chant
"YOU'RE GOING HOME IN THE BACK OF A GINNIVAN!"

*clap, clap, clap-clap-clap, clap-clap-clap-clap, clap-clap*



Sorry.... Can you show yourself out of your own thread?

 

[PMBangers]

Phantom Form Guide extra: The next 15 prospects

Earlier this week AFL.com.au's draft expert Callum Twomey ranked his best 25 draft prospects. Here are the next 15.

www.afl.com.au

Not sure if this is any help as it's not ordered, but this rounds out twomeys top 40

 

[missionpossible]

This is an example of how players can slide using the post above. I have just followed the rule of players get picked in order of highest pick taken in a mock (of those mocks used in pick 1)

1 – Ugle-Hagan (to be honest I will be shocked if this happens)
2 – McDonald
3 – Hollands
4 – Phillips
5 – Campbell
6 – DBG
7 – Tilthorpe
8 – Bruhn
9 – O’Driscoll
10 – Henry
11 – Perkins
12 – Davies
13 – McInnes
14 – Cox
15 – Jones
16 – McCrae
17 – Reid
18 – Chapman
19 – Callow
20 – Trew
21 – Carroll
22 – Poulter
23 – Dumesney
24 – Baldwin
25 – Ford
26 – Gulden
27 – Powell
28 – Walker
29 – Cook
30 – Edwards
31 – Ginnivan
32 – Durdin
33 – Berry
34 – Laurie
35 – Jeffrey
36 – Davis
37 – Maher
38 – Downie
39 – Western
40 – Ham

 

[ferrisb]

OK, I've updated 4-5 drafts since my OP and here is the latest consensus

 

[ferrisb]

Notable risers

• DGB from from 6 to 4
• Macrae 17 > 13
• Cook 30 > 27
• Western 36 > 33

Notable sliders

• Davis 35 > 40
• Edwards 39 > 42

Newbies (previously outside top 50 and now in)

• Neale 50+ > 41
• Coleman 50+ > 43
• Stone 50+ > 44

Gone missing (previously inside top 50, now not)

• Walker, P 42 > 48
• Mitchell 43 > 49
• Collins 45 > 50+
• Ham 46 > 50+
• Sharp 47 > 50+

 

[BALAM]

I like that you've got Phillips 1 - 9. I think he will end up being the best player in this draft and will be a steal if he goes around the 6 mark.

 

[M Malice]

Which phantom drafter has Will Phillips at number 1?

 

[BALAM]

Which phantom drafter has Will Phillips at number 1?

Between 1 and 9. Not number 1.

 

[M Malice]

Between 1 and 9. Not number 1.

From OP >

• Numbers in brackets show the range (min-max) they were picked across the phantoms

 

[ferrisb]

I like that you've got Phillips 1 - 9. I think he will end up being the best player in this draft and will be a steal if he goes around the 6 mark.

Don't thank me, I wouldn't know the difference between Cook and McDonald......No. Sorry, that's my wife. I am just a footy nerd who likes spreadsheets.

You should thank Davo-27. He had Phillips @ #1. Only one other person put Phillips in the top 4.

I am just a youtube recruiter (on jobkeeper) but I love what I have seen of Phillips. He has inside & outside game. Can find the footy, use both sides and kicks to advantage. I think he would have stepped up massively in 2020 without Rowell and Anderson. And I don't think you can say 'he only looked good coz they were in the team' because he looks very talented 'at the coalface'.

I was praying he would slide to Carlton's pick 7 (unlikely, but possible) until it became pretty clear that we are going to trade that pick out.

 

[ferrisb]

Random thoughts:

I really should have used JUH instead of Ugle-Hagan. Would have added seconds to my life...

Thilthorpe has too many THs in his name...