VineyIsLORD
Norm Smith Medallist
- May 6, 2016
- 5,437
- 5,362
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
- Banned
- #1
On Monday the Filipinos (a key Australian strategic ally) elected Rodrigo Duterte, and the state owned media in particular has been super keen to label him some kind of Asian Donald Trump to discredit him.
I've been a fan of this guy for a few years now, just prior to when I visited his home city of Davao (where he was mayor for 22 odd years) for a week about 5 years ago.
A bit of background: In the 70's and 80's Davao was widely considered the single most dangerous city in Asia. Kidnapping gangs, Islamic State (though they were known as the MILF or Abu Sayyaf up until recently when they swore allegiance to the calpihate) and the NPA (The longest running and best armed communist insurgency in Asia) were all battling over turf, and kidnapping people, extorting and murdering with impunity.
Rodrigo was a lawyer at the time, a job with a limited life expectancy in that part of the world. He was elected mayor on a 'tough on crime' platform. And he delivered in spades.
Within his first month of being mayor, he was personally involved in multiple shootouts with kidnapping gangs and Islamic terrorists. The police force was incredibly corrupt and often worked in tandem with the gangs. In one such instance, the police had met the kidnapping gangs and delivered the required ransom and prisoner exchange. Duterte didn't trust the police involved, so he had his security detail take him to 'the drop' where he confronted the kidnappers and started shooting and recovered the ransom money. Eventually the entire police force would be replaced.
To deal with the Communists he did what any smart person would do in that situation, he negotiated. The NPA left Davao more or less alone. Then a strange thing started happening, he started funding schools, transport, health (this was likely part of his negotiations with the Commies)/ then something very dark started happening. Criminals started flat out disappearing. And not just Mr Big's and drug dealers and kidnappers. Petty thieves who had been given two chances in prison were summarily executed in public by masked vigilantes. These killers became known as the DDS (Davao Death Squad) and killed over 700 convicted criminals (though Roddy himself says the figure is closer to 1,700 and reckons he personally murdered "about 3 or 4"). He had managed to get the Catholics and Communists on side, and openly supported the muslim part of mindanao in asking for independance (so the jihadis left well enough alone, with a few *ups that ended up in them being torn apart by the NPA or Davao security)
Davao is now considered one of the five safest cities in Asia. Smoking is banned everywhere in public (he once threatened a british tourist who refused to obey this law, by pointing a revolver at his nutsack and saying "you either swallow that lit cigarette or you leave my city with no balls")
The elites dont like him because they think he's a closet Communist (and he isn't from rich military stock, which in Philippines usually means you aren't allowed anywhere near politics).
So why are American and Australian state media so against him? Isn't this all Philippines domestic s**t?
Well he has already started making overtures that all the territorial disputes with China can be forgotten if they come and build railroads in Philippines like they did in Africa. He is a deal maker, and he realises that the percieved benefit of a few American bases in Philippines in small fry compared to having potentially massive trade with China. Realpolitik at work I guess.
Anyway, two currently sitting senators have threatened a coup against him already (both of these guys attempted coups against the government in the last 15 years, so they aren't joking - and yeah, you can attempt a coup in Philippines and still run for the senate from prison, and if you win they let you out).
Oh, and his country is a transit point where the 14k and Sun Yee On (HK triads) and mainland Chinese criminals do business with the Sinaloa cartel. So he's going to come into conflict with them too.
But this is a potential gamechanger in our region from a strategic point of view. Australia and America have used Philippines as a battleground against the Japanese, and as a launching pad against China. A guy this popular, with such a different view of the world compared to his predecessors at the very least brings uncertainty to the Philippines/US/AUS relationship at the exact time America doesn't want to see it.
If any head of state is going to be assassinated or overthrown in the next 6 years, my money is on Duterte Harry.
I've been a fan of this guy for a few years now, just prior to when I visited his home city of Davao (where he was mayor for 22 odd years) for a week about 5 years ago.
A bit of background: In the 70's and 80's Davao was widely considered the single most dangerous city in Asia. Kidnapping gangs, Islamic State (though they were known as the MILF or Abu Sayyaf up until recently when they swore allegiance to the calpihate) and the NPA (The longest running and best armed communist insurgency in Asia) were all battling over turf, and kidnapping people, extorting and murdering with impunity.
Rodrigo was a lawyer at the time, a job with a limited life expectancy in that part of the world. He was elected mayor on a 'tough on crime' platform. And he delivered in spades.
Within his first month of being mayor, he was personally involved in multiple shootouts with kidnapping gangs and Islamic terrorists. The police force was incredibly corrupt and often worked in tandem with the gangs. In one such instance, the police had met the kidnapping gangs and delivered the required ransom and prisoner exchange. Duterte didn't trust the police involved, so he had his security detail take him to 'the drop' where he confronted the kidnappers and started shooting and recovered the ransom money. Eventually the entire police force would be replaced.
To deal with the Communists he did what any smart person would do in that situation, he negotiated. The NPA left Davao more or less alone. Then a strange thing started happening, he started funding schools, transport, health (this was likely part of his negotiations with the Commies)/ then something very dark started happening. Criminals started flat out disappearing. And not just Mr Big's and drug dealers and kidnappers. Petty thieves who had been given two chances in prison were summarily executed in public by masked vigilantes. These killers became known as the DDS (Davao Death Squad) and killed over 700 convicted criminals (though Roddy himself says the figure is closer to 1,700 and reckons he personally murdered "about 3 or 4"). He had managed to get the Catholics and Communists on side, and openly supported the muslim part of mindanao in asking for independance (so the jihadis left well enough alone, with a few *ups that ended up in them being torn apart by the NPA or Davao security)
Davao is now considered one of the five safest cities in Asia. Smoking is banned everywhere in public (he once threatened a british tourist who refused to obey this law, by pointing a revolver at his nutsack and saying "you either swallow that lit cigarette or you leave my city with no balls")
The elites dont like him because they think he's a closet Communist (and he isn't from rich military stock, which in Philippines usually means you aren't allowed anywhere near politics).
So why are American and Australian state media so against him? Isn't this all Philippines domestic s**t?
Well he has already started making overtures that all the territorial disputes with China can be forgotten if they come and build railroads in Philippines like they did in Africa. He is a deal maker, and he realises that the percieved benefit of a few American bases in Philippines in small fry compared to having potentially massive trade with China. Realpolitik at work I guess.
Anyway, two currently sitting senators have threatened a coup against him already (both of these guys attempted coups against the government in the last 15 years, so they aren't joking - and yeah, you can attempt a coup in Philippines and still run for the senate from prison, and if you win they let you out).
Oh, and his country is a transit point where the 14k and Sun Yee On (HK triads) and mainland Chinese criminals do business with the Sinaloa cartel. So he's going to come into conflict with them too.
But this is a potential gamechanger in our region from a strategic point of view. Australia and America have used Philippines as a battleground against the Japanese, and as a launching pad against China. A guy this popular, with such a different view of the world compared to his predecessors at the very least brings uncertainty to the Philippines/US/AUS relationship at the exact time America doesn't want to see it.
If any head of state is going to be assassinated or overthrown in the next 6 years, my money is on Duterte Harry.