Opinion Pick 1... is Cam Rayner

[carnthemlions]

Firstly, where else does noise come from? Unless you have a personal connection with a prospective draftee, then most of the info will come from media and punters. Most media do their diligence and the story coming out of the Lions this year was one of anger because they thought Schache was no flight risk. The story also came after a raft of high picks exiting. Not just a link t his father. Your point is flawed. It's based around playing it safe and jumping and ghosts.
I'd build the best possible list I could, not one based on connections. I see your point, the one you said has been made on multiple occasions, I just disagree with it on every level. The day we start drafting like that is the day we stop contending.

But we stopped contending a long time ago, and since then we've been unable to retain most of our 1st round picks.

 

[tate13]

But we stopped contending a long time ago, and since then we've been unable to retain most of our 1st round picks.

Agreed. But I'd also say the general running of the club was well below standard and that most of our top picks didn't leave because of a lack of mates.

 

[carnthemlions]

Agreed. But I'd also say the general running of the club was well below standard and that most of our top picks didn't leave because of a lack of mates.

I think our biggest problem with high draft picks is that they've got big clubs talking to them long before they're drafted, and that only ramps up after they end up in Brisbane. It's very hard to compete with that, especially if they're from Victoria.

 

[tate13]

I think our biggest problem with high draft picks is that they've got big clubs talking to them long before they're drafted, and that only ramps up after they end up in Brisbane. It's very hard to compete with that, especially if they're from Victoria.

I'm not saying it's not hard, I'm just saying I'd much prefer we draft the best available player and back our new environment in, rather than draft based on friendship groups.
Guys getting drafted in his year have the opportunity to enter a more positive place and learn off the likes of Hodge, Beams and Zorko. It seems to be a different place and I'd be backing everyone in rather than worry about the ghosts of the past.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

It's not like we only have one pick to get a midfielder with. There are two more top 20 picks at our disposal and we'll have a high pick next year too. All of those can be used to get more midfielders. If you see a potential superstar, it would be silly not to take him (if go home factor isn't a serious issue with him). Rayner is that guy, has the most superstar potential.

 

[Bucking Beads]

It's not like we only have one pick to get a midfielder with. There are two more top 20 picks at our disposal and we'll have a high pick next year too. All of those can be used to get more midfielders. If you see a potential superstar, it would be silly not to take him (if go home factor isn't a serious issue with him). Rayner is that guy, has the most superstar potential.

Spot on plus I don't have an issue with us chasing a gun midfielder via free agency.

 

[luthor]

Spot on plus I don't have an issue with us chasing a gun midfielder via free agency.

That's right.

DFA this year might be an option.

It's already been said bit I think Miles would be a good get if he's available

 

[Skoob]

Firstly, where else does noise come from?

The actual football industry; clubs, either southern, junior, or our own, people in the know, the horses mouth. Schache didn't say anything more than acknowledging his Dad's connection and that going to Brisbane would be good. As I said, way more was read into his comment than was actually said.

Most media do their diligence and the story coming out of the Lions this year was one of anger because they thought Schache was no flight risk. The story also came after a raft of high picks exiting. Not just a link t his father. Your point is flawed. It's based around playing it safe and jumping and ghosts.
I'd build the best possible list I could, not one based on connections. I see your point, the one you said has been made on multiple occasions, I just disagree with it on every level. The day we start drafting like that is the day we stop contending.

Okay.

 

[carnthemlions]

Spot on plus I don't have an issue with us chasing a gun midfielder via free agency.

Unfortunately chasing is about as close as we're likely to get.

 

[Skoob]

Agreed. But I'd also say the general running of the club was well below standard and that most of our top picks didn't leave because of a lack of mates.

But that is also ignoring the difficulties (well documented and historically proven) that northern clubs face. We were losing good players when we were playing grand finals. It is acknowledged by the current administration that as a Qld. club, we have to pay more than Victorian clubs to keep talent. We have to think outside the square when drafting, because simply taking "the best available" seems to end poorly more often than not.

I'm not saying it's not hard, I'm just saying I'd much prefer we draft the best available player and back our new environment in, rather than draft based on friendship groups.
Guys getting drafted in his year have the opportunity to enter a more positive place and learn off the likes of Hodge, Beams and Zorko. It seems to be a different place and I'd be backing everyone in rather than worry about the ghosts of the past.

Still, you're arguing as though the bolded was actually suggested. It was only suggested as a consideration that could tip the scales, not that it should form the "basis" for anything.

For reference, Conole had this to say http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-07-06/how-the-lions-stemmed-their-draft-bleeding

Ten of the 24 recent draftees are country Victorians, including three last year from the North Ballarat Rebels – Hugh McCluggage, Berry and Cedric Cox – and that is not a coincidence, but only part of the club's vision.
Conole has worked in recruiting at the Lions since 2011.
"If there's an opportunity to bring in some players who have had a prior relationship, then great," he told AFL.com.au.
"We were really happy to get Hugh and Jarrod together in last year's draft and it worked out really well, but probably where we rated them is where they fell.
"We certainly didn’t alter our draft board on the night, but if you can do it, it has a lot of positives.
"We've been fortunate enough the last few years to be able to group together a few AFL Academy kids, so even though they may come from different areas of the country, they've got a bit of a background."

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Some people have suggested drafting Dow and cited his friendship with Berry and McCluggage as a reason that he'd fit into the team and not quit for Victoria in a few years. Certainly there's a value to team chemistry but Dow doesn't seem to be rated as high as LDU and Rayner. So I'd hope if we drafted Dow, that it would be primarily for how he integrates with the rest of the boys on the field more so than off the field. Whoever we take, we could always give them their own friendship group by taking someone else they've played with if they're sufficiently talented (eg Rayner and Lachlan Fogarty, LDU and Bonar).

 

[MacMum]

True.....the flow on effect. Nice.

 

[theteamtobeat]

Some people have suggested drafting Dow and cited his friendship with Berry and McCluggage as a reason that he'd fit into the team and not quit for Victoria in a few years. Certainly there's a value to team chemistry but Dow doesn't seem to be rated as high as LDU and Rayner. So I'd hope if we drafted Dow, that it would be primarily for his fit into the team. Whoever we take, we could always give them their own friendship group by taking someone else they've played with if they're sufficiently talented (eg Rayner and Lachlan Fogarty, LDU and Bonar).

I think if we learnt anything from the Schache saga, we need to draft kids that have qualities/attributes of being a champion. I hope the recruiting team gets Luke hodge's assessment of these kids around our pick 1. It doesn't matter where the kid is rated.

 

[luthor]

True.....the flow on effect. Nice.

Nice don't win Premierships lady.

Draft the mongrel Rayner I say.

Feed him iron filings for breakfast and let him loose.

 

[briztoon]

Some people have suggested drafting Dow and cited his friendship with Berry and McCluggage as a reason that he'd fit into the team and not quit for Victoria in a few years. Certainly there's a value to team chemistry but Dow doesn't seem to be rated as high as LDU and Rayner. So I'd hope if we drafted Dow, that it would be primarily for his fit into the team. Whoever we take, we could always give them their own friendship group by taking someone else they've played with if they're sufficiently talented (eg Rayner and Lachlan Fogarty, LDU and Bonar).

I suspect a lot of this has to do with how ready LDU and Rayner are, and that they are taller and fit the mould of the modern day big bodied mid. Dow doesn't yet have the size to play on the ball. If Dow had LDU's size and build, I suspect Rayner may not be the top rated kid in this years draft.

The most common comparisons to current AFL for the kids.

Rayner = Robbie Gray/Christian Petracca
LDU = Josh Kennedy (Syd)
Dow = mini Dangerfield

 

[jackess]

Dow= Sloane

 

[luthor]

The most common comparisons to current AFL for the kids.

Rayner = Robbie Gray/Christian Petracca
LDU = Josh Kennedy (Syd)
Dow = mini Dangerfield

If you're right we can't lose

 

[mish33]

I suspect a lot of this has to do with how ready LDU and Rayner are, and that they are taller and fit the mould of the modern day big bodied mid. Dow doesn't yet have the size to play on the ball. If Dow had LDU's size and build, I suspect Rayner may not be the top rated kid in this years draft.

The most common comparisons to current AFL for the kids.

Rayner = Robbie Gray/Christian Petracca
LDU = Josh Kennedy (Syd)
Dow = mini Dangerfield

I understand you've seen a lot more of these guys than I have, but I just can't see how LDU plays like Kennedy. To me LDU seems more outside/in if that's even a term. More like a poor man's D Beams who can win the hard ball but is probably better getting that first hand ball receive and spreading. He doesn't seem to have elite acceleration, but moves really smoothly. If only he could kick like beams...

 

[briztoon]

If you're right we can't lose

I understand you've seen a lot more of these guys than I have, but I just can't see how LDU plays like Kennedy. To me LDU seems more outside/in if that's even a term. More like a poor man's D Beams who can win the hard ball but is probably better getting that first hand ball receive and spreading. He doesn't seem to have elite acceleration, but moves really smoothly. If only he could kick like beams...

They're not my comparisons. They're the most common comparisons taken from the draft board and elsewhere.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The most common comparisons to current AFL for the kids.

Rayner = Robbie Gray/Christian Petracca
LDU = Josh Kennedy (Syd)
Dow = mini Dangerfield

You may be right with the comparison, I couldn't say. But almost every draft analysis I've seen so far reckons Rayner's best comparison is Dustin Martin.

 

[royboys4eva]

I know a teacher from where Rayner schools and he is apparently very popular with no issues. That said I think I would go with LDU as our need for a mid is more important.

 

[lioninthesand]

I agree wholeheartedly provided the candidates really can't be split.

If that's the case, by all means give serious consideration to the factors outlined in your post.

By the same reasoning, I'm sure that you would agree that if there is a standout #1, then that should be what drives our decision. From what I've seen, Rayner appears to be that standout. Now, what I have seen is nowhere near exhaustive and I freely admit it's based almost entirely on the usual collection of clips and highlights that I think most of us rely on pretty heavily. The club and it's drafters will have no doubt have far deeper insights so whatever they decide on draft night I for one will readily accept.

Let's hope for all our sakes that we don't end up with another Schache.

Edit: lets hope for our sake we don't end up with another top 10 Victorian Draftee

 

[lioninthesand]

Most of the "noise" about Schache "eager' to come was from punters and media, based of the fact that his dad played some games for the Bears, and that he said it would be great. 99% of draft hopefuls would say "it would be great" (before they're drafted). What else would they say? The fact that Schache had and made few connections here and is now gone, makes my point. Far too many made much too much of Schache's tenuous link to Brisbane.
Mayes on the other hand, as you say is constantly speculated as a flight risk. Again, he has no prior connection to the club or other players. Again, this makes my point that the feeling of risk is higher due to that lack of connection.
This doesn't mean that if there is no connection, then a player will leave, otherwise we'd be dead. What it does say though, is that if we build with guys who are connected, then our chances might be better.
Don't assume that recruiting mates wasn't a consideration in last year's strategy. There is a very high chance that some of our youngest boys are happier than they might have been otherwise.
And again, I'm not suggesting it should be the deciding factor or ruling strategy, but when we are picking from a group of 3 or 4 guys who could be equally good, then how they fit in with the others should come into consideration. If we value LDU & Dow equally, but Dow has buddies here, then no harm in letting that tip the scales.

I love Sam Mayes. He is a symbol of loyalty. But he wouldnt have clubs chasing / luring him with $700k contracts like Scache did, mcluggage would be as we speak and Rayner will. Connection is key, but the level to which they are lured plays a huge part. I for one dont have faith we can hold onto a pick 1 with Rayners potential star power, his manager will be looking at endorsments in Melbourne vs brisbane alone, let alone family etc. We are very vaulrable when have hot pursuits happening like Richmond / Leppa did with Josh this year.

 

[bewsta]

I've been thinking.

We shouldn't draft Cameron Rayner because his name, Spoonerised, is Ram 'er 'n' cane 'er. Not a good message to send to our boys!

 

[winged1]

I've been thinking.

We shouldn't draft Cameron Rayner because his name, Spoonerised, is Ram 'er 'n' cane 'er. Not a good message to send to our boys!

Too much time on your hands