Preview Pick 6, 2019 Draft: Who Do AFC Target?

[gardiner stand]

Hes just a snivelling carlton troll Danger... the CFC are infested with them..

Mods!...

Mummmmmy!!!

 

[ok.crows]

6 wins carlton 12 wins Adelaide is very realistic so in this scenario you give up pick 19 for a 6 pick upgrade.

After making the GF in 2017 Adelaide had a tough draw in 2018 and then injury & form resulted in a very bad year in 2018 where everything that could go wrong did go wrong. Yet they still won 12 games.

In 2019 Adelaide get good players back who were missing either for the entire year or for much of it in 2018, and they have gone from the second hardest fixture to the second easiest fixture.

Adelaide should be able to achieve an improvement of at least 3 and possibly up to 5 more wins in 2019. They should make the 8 easily and have a reasonable shot at top 4.

Carlton, OTOH, whilst they did have a similarly bad run with injuries in 2018, they had almost the easiest fixture and yet they managed only 2 wins. In 2019 Carlton have the 10th hardest fixture, quite a bit harder than their 2018 fixture.

Even though Carlton are likely to improve on just 2 wins in 2019 (they couldn't do much worse after all) it is very unlikely they rise out of the bottom 4.

If Carlton fans are thinking their draft picks this year will improve them by 4 games then I would point out that Gold Coast had a far better draft intake than Carlton did.

 

[Donkey Magoo]

Adelaide 10- 12 wins
Carlton 6 -8 wins
Best scenario for Crows 6 place upgrade on first pick
Worst case scenario 2 game upgrade on first pick
That’s very realistic so don’t get too cocky

Ba ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ba ha ha ha ba ha ha ha ha ba.




Ba ha ha haha baha ha ha he he he hah hah haaa hah.


Thanks I needed that.





Nah ha ha ha ha nah haha haha he he ha hehe

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Personally, If we do end up with Pick 1,2 or 3. I'd trade that baby out for multiple picks in the first round.

I would always rather get multiple early picks than 1 VERY high pick that will be used on a guy who comes in with the pressure of the world on his shoulders.

Look at how many top 3 picks have struggled due to this in the past 10 years.

Plus Hamish has a great track record at using mid first round picks on absolute gold.

This right here. Even though I loved this year's top prospects, I'd rather have GWS or Port's hauls (I get that hometown factor might lead you all to think differently though, but it doesn't look like that's going to be an issue next year).

 

[Crow till I die]

If Rankine wants out next year he is going eventually, no matter how long they trap him. But if he wants to go home next year there will be an SA club who will likely have the #1 pick so they will have the opportunity to get more for him than any year in the future.

This. If rankine wants out and he will only request a trade back to the crows if he does then GC will get best value for him with us next year. If GC hold him to his contract then we can get creative with next years pick to secure a mid 2019 1st and a 2020 1st. That way we can offer a couple of 2020 1sts to gc for him at that time. If a player wants gone at the end of their contract and makes it absolutely clear what club they want..they get there

 

[Crow till I die]

Agreed. The one area Suns can compete is by offering a huge early contract.

They could conceivably offer well north of 500k on the next contract after initial 2 years. Numbers the crows wouldnt be able to match.

We just need Rankine to have a few too many on a couple of occasions and have some overblown incident front page of the local tabloid, The Bulletin.

End of year whilst trying to entrench new cultural norms , pick 1-3 for Rankine possibly gets it done

Even a big contract offer is no guarantee of keeping a guy that may want out for other reasons like family / friends etc

 

[Crow till I die]

He’ll probably go to port

About as much chance of that as cripps requesting a trade there...rankine is no great fan of the swampies

 

[Old navy]

I’m all for being optimistic about potential outcomes, but I think you guys are tempting fate big time, putting forward trades involving pick one and assuming that having pick 1 is a done deal.
That’s like a gambler thinking about all the awesome stuff they’re going to buy with there winnings, before they’ve actually won the money.
You guys could easily have a bad year next year, with some injuries and form dropping off due players aging, plus the lose of Mcgoven, who IMO was one of you’re most important forwards and the player the new rule changes would benefit the most.
There’s also the added pressure this trade brings, if you guys get off to a slow start it could get pretty savage over there very quickly.

 

[Golumless]

I’m all for being optimistic about potential outcomes, but I think you guys are tempting fate big time, putting forward trades involving pick one and assuming that having that pick is a absolute certainty is folly.
That’s like a gambler thinking about all the awesome stuff they’re going to buy with there winnings, before they’ve actually won the money.
You guys could easily have a bad year next year, with some injuries and form dropping off due players aging, plus the lose of Mcgoven, who IMO was one of you’re most important forwards and the player the new rule changes would benefit the most.
There’s also the added pressure this trade brings, if you guys get off to a slow start it could get pretty savage over there very quickly.

Really what we do results wise has no bearing on this trade if Carlton stays true to form. and considering that you've been locked to the bottom 4 for a couple of years and are just coming off a ever so slightly better season then Melbourne 2013, it's a very safe bet that 16th is really the highest position you could feasibly finish next season (barring what would be a rather major miracle). Lets say the likely at worse here for us is 6 + 19 -> 3 which would be a fair but ultimately pointless trade. Anything higher for Carlton and lower for Adelaide is pretty safely discounted at this point as it just so unlikely to occur.

The only reason you could not lock Carlton in for pick 1 next year is GC are likely to be bad enough to give you competition for it, as for without a doubt you are in for a very painful season in 2019 (for reference, I'd consider 4-18 a pass for Carlton). At least Melbourne when they were put in this position took a lot of steps to fix it by sacking their dud of a coach and getting in an experienced campaigner to coach them. You haven't done s**t to fix your predicament, just put your hands over your ears and screaming "trust us".

 

[Donkey Magoo]

I’m all for being optimistic about potential outcomes, but I think you guys are tempting fate big time, putting forward trades involving pick one and assuming that having that pick is a absolute certainty is folly.
That’s like a gambler thinking about all the awesome stuff they’re going to buy with there winnings, before they’ve actually won the money.
You guys could easily have a bad year next year, with some injuries and form dropping off due players aging, plus the lose of Mcgoven, who IMO was one of you’re most important forwards and the player the new rule changes would benefit the most.
There’s also the added pressure this trade brings, if you guys get off to a slow start it could get pretty savage over there very quickly.

Since the 2000's kicked over there is a 28% probability of you guys finishing last. I'll take those odds.

 

[Shaz2012]

I’m all for being optimistic about potential outcomes, but I think you guys are tempting fate big time, putting forward trades involving pick one and assuming that having that pick is a absolute certainty is folly.
That’s like a gambler thinking about all the awesome stuff they’re going to buy with there winnings, before they’ve actually won the money.
You guys could easily have a bad year next year, with some injuries and form dropping off due players aging, plus the lose of Mcgoven, who IMO was one of you’re most important forwards and the player the new rule changes would benefit the most.
There’s also the added pressure this trade brings, if you guys get off to a slow start it could get pretty savage over there very quickly.

Having a really poor year and finishing in the bottom 3 would normally have an upside of a top 3 pick. We’ve just locked that in.

 

[TheVelourFog]

I’m all for being optimistic about potential outcomes, but I think you guys are tempting fate big time, putting forward trades involving pick one and assuming that having that pick is a absolute certainty is folly.
That’s like a gambler thinking about all the awesome stuff they’re going to buy with there winnings, before they’ve actually won the money.
You guys could easily have a bad year next year, with some injuries and form dropping off due players aging, plus the lose of Mcgoven, who IMO was one of you’re most important forwards and the player the new rule changes would benefit the most.
There’s also the added pressure this trade brings, if you guys get off to a slow start it could get pretty savage over there very quickly.

I love how during trade week McGovern was only an average forward and only worth a second round pick according to Carlton posters. Now he was one of our most important forwards and crucial to our team set up etc etc

 

[Mileratkinsshow]

Just did the ladder predictor. Conservatively. Often favouring home town teams. Could only pick Carlton for three wins. Second last.
Crows were 3rd, on 16 wins.
If things go according to my script, that is one hell of a trade!
If Carlton are 15th and Crows 5th, it is still very much better and Cr

 

[Mego Red]

I'd assume four wins for Carlton and fourteen for us. I'd be surprised if it was vastly different to that.

 

[Thetrader15]

I love how during trade week McGovern was only an average forward and only worth a second round pick according to Carlton posters. Now he was one of our most important forwards and crucial to our team set up etc etc

He is only an average forward but he is also onenof their beat forwards and will be crucial to their whole team

 

[Tex200]

I’m all for being optimistic about potential outcomes, but I think you guys are tempting fate big time, putting forward trades involving pick one and assuming that having that pick is a absolute certainty is folly.
That’s like a gambler thinking about all the awesome stuff they’re going to buy with there winnings, before they’ve actually won the money.
You guys could easily have a bad year next year, with some injuries and form dropping off due players aging, plus the lose of Mcgoven, who IMO was one of you’re most important forwards and the player the new rule changes would benefit the most.
There’s also the added pressure this trade brings, if you guys get off to a slow start it could get pretty savage over there very quickly.

I think all this argy bargy on who will win this trade is pretty pointless and it's just the usual fare gobbled up by us nuffies on here.

I've no doubt the clubs take a far more strategic view on what the trade / draft period achieved.

It was a sound trade from Carltons perspective. You couldn't afford just 1 pick in this draft, but you've kept pick 1, kept a 1st for next year and got yourselves back into the 2018 draft and got a player you wanted. Tick.

We went to the draft with 4 good picks which we converted into 3 players we wanted + we've carried over your 2019 1st and 2nd (via GWS). Tick

If your 1st next year turns out to be just a 2-3 pick upgrade, big deal. The night as a whole will be measured as that upgrade + your 2nd for the cost of a late 1st that we didn't want to otherwise spend. If Duursma was there we know we'd have taken him and not traded.

By securing your 2019 2nd we will have effectively reimbursed ourselves for the lost pick that costs the crack at an upgrade anyway, so we don't lose for the cost of rolling the dice.

It was a good trade for both clubs. Funnily enough I imagine that's why they did it.

 

[Bearded Clam]

Even a big contract offer is no guarantee of keeping a guy that may want out for other reasons like family / friends etc

Yep... and a great example of this is Tom Lynch..

AFL ambassador coin and a massive salary still couldnt keep him at the suns... he went to the tigers for a hell of a lot less money..

He wants to play finals footy and football success in winning flags... the suns are years away from that... if ever.

Rankine and luko will be thinking the same after a couple of years of getting flogged.

 

[Crow till I die]

Yep... and a great example of this is Tom Lynch..

AFL ambassador coin and a massive salary still couldnt keep him at the suns... he went to the tigers for a hell of a lot less money..

He wants to play finals footy and football success in winning flags... the suns are years away from that... if ever.

Rankine and luko will be thinking the same after a couple of years of getting flogged.

They are probably thinking that already

 

[Norwood Crow]

Not going to bother to explain what relevance points have ,by your comments you seem to ignorant to understand.
As far as being a joke well let’s see
- from GF to missing the 8
- preseason camps
- power ranger stances
- Pykes 3/4 time addresses
- Humiliation in a Grand final
Sure I’ve missed plenty

Are you for real mate. As soon as a Carlton supporter mentions the word finals in any context, I know they are on the juice.

 

[Norwood Crow]

You lot are pretty sure of yourselves, don’t forget how 2018 turned out after the 2017 GF shellacking.
Enough talking s**t with you lot , we’ll revisit this discussion round 23 next year

Enough talking with losers. Bye Bye, how about cooking up a big soup with that huge wooden spoon collection of yours (what do they look like. We here wouldn't have a clue). There's a good boy now you can go back to playing with your crayons. I didn't know you could skip primary school in Victoria.

 

[Norwood Crow]

Adelaide 10- 12 wins
Carlton 6 -8 wins
Best scenario for Crows 6 place upgrade on first pick
Worst case scenario 2 game upgrade on first pick
That’s very realistic so don’t get too cocky

You are assuming between 6-8 teams are going to forfeit against you this year. Don't think that has ever happened before.

 

[Norwood Crow]

Guys and Girls, As I am getting Old I Keep forgetting, Who holds the AFL record for the most wooden spoons,
I keep forgetting and may have to ask several times for Help this year.

They use them to cook up big batches of playdough for their supporters.

 

[Comeonden]

Best midfielder available

 

[Norwood Crow]

You have now completely changed your argument. You have been saying 1st round picks (specifically) cannot be trades for 2 years. Now you are agreeing with what everybody has been saying all along that they can be traded in the same way any contracted player can be traded.

It makes no difference that they are first rounders. It is essentially the Kelly trade of this year. Like Geelong, GC are a good chance to retain them even if they request a trade. AFC will have to put up or shut up if they want to break a top 3 pick out of his contract.

You are dealing with person who tries to use whiteout on his IPAD

 

[Comeonden]

Matt rowell would ling jnr