Player by player breakdown of Better, Same, Worse (than last season)

[Carmo]

Trying to get a read on our likely fortunes for next year and have been pondering about doing a player by player prediction of how I expect them to go this year compared to last year and see what that indicates.

So, here we go:

Worse:
Thommo -age related decline


Same:
Sloane - same or possibly worse, just because he had such a good season last year, going worse would be a return to typical form, if you get what I mean
Jenkins - same or possibly worse, same as Sloane
Eddie
Lynch
Talia - had a good year, starting to rack up disposals and become more attacking, dunno if he can improve much more
Lairdy - can he go even better?
Jacobs - was pretty good most of the year
Mackay
Dougie
Cheney


Better:
Tex - had a crap year, can only do better
Brouch - just getting back, conditioning and continuity will bring huge improvements
Knight- merely playing would be a huge improvement
Hampton - see Knight
Menzel - see Knight
Otten - see Knight
Greenwood- huge upside after just coming back to footy
Keath - see Greenwood
CEY - he was a top mid in 2015, I believe he can get back there.
Hartigan -still learning the game, incredible athletic attributes for a big fella, superb mark, got a lot of improvement to come yet
McGovern - still learning, needs conditioning, just getting experience will do him wonders
Cameron - see McGovern
Mrouch - see McGovern
Atkins - see McGovern
Lever - see McGovern
Obrien - see McGovern
Milera - see McGovern
Brown - has shown can be attacking, much better kick than I thought, could be a weapon with stints in the middle.
Smith - had a pretty good year, but I'm confident still has another gear to go
Seedsman - see Smith, less injuries would be good
Doedee, Gore, Wigg, Galluci, Poholke - need to debut, otherwise need to hone their craft in SANFL, will improve for sure, just via the pre season conditioning if nothing else - will they be add usefully to the minor round of the firsts though??


Others:
will most likely improve this year but will it be enough? - Dear, Hunter, Beech



Losses that the improvements have to offset: Thommos decline and the lack of availability of VB, Grigg, Hendo and Lyons.

I think the improvements will outweight the losses easily.

 

[GreyCrow]

Jenkins is the interesting one. What is a good year for JJ? 45+ goals or more or less?

I would want a 45+ season for a pass mark. (without injury)

 

[Coopers]

That's a good summary of why I am bullish about the season coming up.

So many players that are yet to hit their straps. A good half of the 1st 22 can be much better improved.

Question is how much they will "break out" if at all. And if there are players who will go into the "worse" category that we don't expect. It happens.

 

[FR0GGY]

Interesting that Jenkins is entering a 5 year deal and we are already talking about him treading water or going backwards.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Interesting that Jenkins is entering a 5 year deal and we are already talking about him treading water or going backwards.

IMO Jenkins, Betts, Lynch all maxed out last season. Had great years, can see then having good years but not quite at the same level of 2016. It's why I don't think we'll jump into the top four next season.

 

[Scorpus]

I'd have Jacobs and Douglas comfortably in the 'worse' category

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

I'd have Jacobs and Douglas comfortably in the 'worse' category

Opposite for Jacobs. I thought he was poo this year, but with the change to 3rd man up and some support from ROB, we should see him find his place in the game again.

 

[Scorpus]

Opposite for Jacobs. I thought he was poo this year, but with the change to 3rd man up and some support from ROB, we should see him find his place in the game again.

Nah I reckon he's been declining for a few years now. Would need a big turn around

 

[hendo8888]

Worse:
Cheney: Can't see him playing every game this season.
Douglas: On the decline as a player.
Mackay: Others will overtake him.
Thompson: Will be phased out.
Jenkins: Don't think his output last season is sustainable.

Same:
Betts: Doesn't have any improvement on last season. Could decline a little.
Brown: Had a bit of a down year, so there's improvement there, but not sure how much.
Gore: I feel like this is about as good as he's going to get.
Hartigan: Had a really good year, repeating that would be a solid outcome.
Hunter: Don't really think he's going to get significantly better.
Jacobs: Had a down year, but I feel like this is about what we'll get from him. ROB should get a handful of games too.
Kelly: We pretty much know what he can do. Don't see much upside there.
Laird: Had a fantastic year. Can't get much better than that.
Lynch: Same with Laird.
Otten: Will continue to compete at SANFL level, but can't see him getting an AFL game. Should retire at the end of the year.
Shaw: Did nothing last year and this year will be the same.
Sloane: Is already in the absolute elite of the competition. Not a lot of room for improvement.
Talia: Struggle to see how he could get better. Won't get worse.
Walker: Goal output might increase as Jenkins' decreases, but otherwise will be about the same.

Better:
Atkins: Not by a huge amount, this year was his breakout, but will continue to improve.
Beech: Should break into the team at some point.
Cameron: Midfield time should improve some key areas in his game.
BCrouch: This year was his back to form year, next year will be when he starts to really push his game.
MCrouch: Will take on a larger role, as Thompson steps back.
Dear: Not sure if he'll get a game, but will push his name forward.
Doedee: Natural improvement.
CEY: Should find himself in Lyons' role.
Greenwood: Would love to see him get a handful of games.
Hampton: He's someone who could push us further up the ladder.
Keath: Probably won't get a game, but will continue to develop.
Knight: This is his year. Going to be a gun.
Lever: Hopefully puts on a bit of weight so he can take on the big guys. Big reason why I think Cheney will be pushed out for a Hampton type.
McGovern: Natural improvement, but not sure we'll see him play every game again.
Menzel: Can't get worse.
Milera: Natural improvement.
O'Brien: Should get a chance to prove he's going to be good to go when Sauce hangs them up.
Seedsman: Not sure he has too much improvement, but should get a little better.
Smith: Hopefully finally has an uninterrupted year and gets back to his best consistently.
Wigg: really want to see him get his chance.

 

[dogs105]

Hoping for Dougie to bounce back.

 

[GreyCrow]

Worse:
Jenkins: Don't think his output last season is sustainable.

By how much though? As I asked above is a 45+ season a poor one? I don't expect him to kick 60 but I would like to see 45+ from him.

 

[hendo8888]

By how much though? As I asked above is a 45+ season a poor one? I don't expect him to kick 60 but I would like to see 45+ from him.

Poor? No. Worse? Yes.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Worse:
Cheney: Can't see him playing every game this season.
Douglas: On the decline as a player.
Mackay: Others will overtake him.
Thompson: Will be phased out.
Jenkins: Don't think his output last season is sustainable.

This is what you'd like to see .....but it's not factually correct

 

[hendo8888]

This is what you'd like to see .....but it's not factually correct

Since when was a prediction factually correct? It's by definition not.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Since when was a prediction factually correct? It's by definition not.

Sorry ....i thought it was analysis of last season .....my bad

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Near on impossible to say who will have a worse year because of form or injury.

Thommo & Mackay I expect will play less games & have less impact.

Those who I doubt will be significantly better - Sloane, Betts, Lynch & Talia - as they are already at elite consistent levels.

Everyone else has the capacity to improve.

 

[Carmo]

Jenkins is the interesting one. What is a good year for JJ? 45+ goals or more or less?

I would want a 45+ season for a pass mark. (without injury)

Hmm, yer, I'd probably go with that mark, there was only 8 KP players that got 45 or higher last season, so its pretty hard to attain, but that said, if we wanna be a top team, that's going to have to be about the mark.

 

[Carmo]

Interesting that Jenkins is entering a 5 year deal and we are already talking about him treading water or going backwards.

That's because, we, at bigfooty, are crazy! Yer, on the onehand, he and the team had a good season, so its realistic to expect him to, especially in the short term, to come back a bit, but really, he's just a baby to learning the game, should get a lot more football sense over the next couple of years, enhanced by that he's shown himself to be a good learner and has the right ethic. Should be a damn good player in 2/3 seasons time.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

That's because, we, at bigfooty are crazy! Yer, on the onehand, he and the team had a good season, so its realistic to expect him to, especially in the short term, to come back a bit, but really, he's just a baby to learning the game, should get a lot more football sense over the next couple of years, enhanced by that he's shown himself to be a good learner and has the right ethic. Should be a damn good player in 2/3 seasons time.

JJ has improved every year on the Crows' list & gives us the best kpp combination with Tex... yet many whinge about his performance.

If he maintains his 2016 levels, excluding the ankle injury, he will again be around the mark of the AA squad.

 

[1970crow]

I'd have Jacobs and Douglas comfortably in the 'worse' category

I understand the view, but I'm expecting both to be better. Dougie back to more stoppage midfield work and Sauce to have a year where he can get off the ground again.

 

[1970crow]

Since when was a prediction factually correct? It's by definition not.

Wayne's either in the middle of a minor melt or is about to plunge into a full Mackay triple cheese melt.

 

[Carmo]

JJ has improved every year on the Crows' list & gives us the best kpp combination with Tex... yet many whinge about his performance.

If he maintains his 2016 levels, excluding the ankle injury, he will again be around the mark of the AA squad.

Yep, I swear this place is too negative. Have been meaning to go for a mosey on to other boards and get a feel of their vibe. I wonder if we're not one of the most negative? Would we be more negative that say Bris or Carlton board? I would say we're probably more negative than them, and I can see a bit of a case for it, in that, we haven't achieved much at the pointy end of the season, despite being a fairly well resourced and reliably supported (and therefore financed) club, but you could say the same for Richmond, Freo and Collingwood, for example, and I'd bet we're probably more negative than all those, despite being in a far better position for next season and beyond.

 

[1970crow]

JJ has improved every year on the Crows' list & gives us the best kpp combination with Tex... yet many whinge about his performance.

If he maintains his 2016 levels, excluding the ankle injury, he will again be around the mark of the AA squad.

Has suffered the same fate as Brown. I'm not a huge wrap for JJ, I'd prefer him to ruck more and I'd like him to get to more contests when we can't get clean ball out of the stoppage and are just pounding the ball forward under pressure. But he had a good year ruined by a continued idiotic selection policy of favouring injured players for continuity ahead of the next guy who's fully fit and raring to go.

 

[marty36]

Worse:
Cheney: Can't see him playing every game this season.
Douglas: On the decline as a player.
Mackay: Others will overtake him.
Thompson: Will be phased out.
Jenkins: Don't think his output last season is sustainable.

Same:
Betts: Doesn't have any improvement on last season. Could decline a little.
Brown: Had a bit of a down year, so there's improvement there, but not sure how much.
Gore: I feel like this is about as good as he's going to get.
Hartigan: Had a really good year, repeating that would be a solid outcome.
Hunter: Don't really think he's going to get significantly better.
Jacobs: Had a down year, but I feel like this is about what we'll get from him. ROB should get a handful of games too.
Kelly: We pretty much know what he can do. Don't see much upside there.
Laird: Had a fantastic year. Can't get much better than that.
Lynch: Same with Laird.
Otten: Will continue to compete at SANFL level, but can't see him getting an AFL game. Should retire at the end of the year.
Shaw: Did nothing last year and this year will be the same.
Sloane: Is already in the absolute elite of the competition. Not a lot of room for improvement.
Talia: Struggle to see how he could get better. Won't get worse.
Walker: Goal output might increase as Jenkins' decreases, but otherwise will be about the same.

Better:
Atkins: Not by a huge amount, this year was his breakout, but will continue to improve.
Beech: Should break into the team at some point.
Cameron: Midfield time should improve some key areas in his game.
BCrouch: This year was his back to form year, next year will be when he starts to really push his game.
MCrouch: Will take on a larger role, as Thompson steps back.
Dear: Not sure if he'll get a game, but will push his name forward.
Doedee: Natural improvement.
CEY: Should find himself in Lyons' role.
Greenwood: Would love to see him get a handful of games.
Hampton: He's someone who could push us further up the ladder.
Keath: Probably won't get a game, but will continue to develop.
Knight: This is his year. Going to be a gun.
Lever: Hopefully puts on a bit of weight so he can take on the big guys. Big reason why I think Cheney will be pushed out for a Hampton type.
McGovern: Natural improvement, but not sure we'll see him play every game again.
Menzel: Can't get worse.
Milera: Natural improvement.
O'Brien: Should get a chance to prove he's going to be good to go when Sauce hangs them up.
Seedsman: Not sure he has too much improvement, but should get a little better.
Smith: Hopefully finally has an uninterrupted year and gets back to his best consistently.
Wigg: really want to see him get his chance.

I agree with your thoughts however you said JJ can't sustain the level he achieved, I would say Betts, Sloane, Talia have also achieved an exceptionally high standard and could find it difficult to maintain that absolute brilliant season even if they were to drop back a little they would be fantastic players still

 

[beartoo]

Yep, I swear this place is too negative. Have been meaning to go for a mosey on to other boards and get a feel of their vibe. I wonder if we're not one of the most negative? Would we be more negative that say Bris or Carlton board? I would say we're probably more negative than them, and I can see a bit of a case for it, in that, we haven't achieved much at the pointy end of the season, despite being a fairly well resourced and reliably supported (and therefore financed) club, but you could say the same for Richmond, Freo and Collingwood, for example, and I'd bet we're probably more negative than all those, despite being in a far better position for next season and beyond.

Whether or not other boards are more negative than ours will depend on if they have Trolls and Super-trolls.