Player comparison thread

[mitchell12345]

alwyn davey vs des headland
and
stiller vs waters vs drummond
thoughts

 

[Lakey91]

Alwyn Davey (208k) v Headland (283k)

Firstly, it must be stated that pre-season will give a better indication of these players form, fitness and scoring potential.

Headland is an interesting prospect. The positive for headland, is that he made a return to the AFL in rounds 21 and 22 after around 15 weeks on the sidelines injured. This is positive as it means he will be able to complete a full preseason (didn’t check freo board but can’t see why not) compared to Alwyn who is on a restricted program (though he is going very well apparently). Both should be fit for round one, but I would think headland would have a better preseason under his belt at this time.

Headland is also proven at the top level, having played just under 150 games (compared to alwyns 22) meaning he is experienced. However headland has been very injury prone in his time:

2008: 20 games at 59
2007: 17 games at 77
2006: 21 games at 78
2005: 20 games at 74
2004: 15 games at 75
2003: 17 games at 72
2002: 17 games at 95
2001: 06 games at 46

I think if he does return and plays well that he can average mid-high 70s as he has in the past 5 seasons (before 2008) meaning an increase in average of around 15 (would make fair share of money). However, the injury risk is immenent.

Alwyn is still very young. Having played 14 games in his opening year of 2007 he started 2008 relatively well with scores of 78 and 79 in the first few rounds before he was injured. I think he has potential for improvement to an average of 70, especially if he gets more midfield time. Also, the fact that he is discounted means he is priced more around 43ppg – not the average of 62 he has scored in his limited two seasons – meaning there is even more upside than headland. Also, Alwyn is significantly 75k cheaper – enough to turn a mid price forward into a keeper. This sways it heavily alwyns way.

In conclusion, I think they will both average around the same if fit, meaning Alwyn’s cheaper price, less injury risk, and higher upside makes him the more attractive player IMO.

 

[Daz]

Alwyn is still very young. Having played 14 games in his opening year of 2007 he started 2008 relatively well with scores of 78 and 79 in the first few rounds before he was injured. I think he has potential for improvement to an average of 70, especially if he gets more midfield time.

Nice work Lakey. One little thing. Alwyn Davey is actually 24 years old (just 3 years younger than Headcase) so I don't see a huge amount of improvement in him. I also believe he is too light to spend much time in the midfield.

 

[Lakey91]

Nice work Lakey. One little thing. Alwyn Davey is actually 24 years old (just 3 years younger than Headcase) so I don't see a huge amount of improvement in him. I also believe he is too light to spend much time in the midfield.

Wow your right, never noticed that. Was he taken mature age in draft?

I think alwyn has ability to improve, and being off a 43ppg price he will at least provide 15-20ppg upside in price i would think.

You dont think he could play a bit as an outside mid or off the wing?

 

[Knight Ryders]

I'm a massive Bomber fan, so I've watched Davey plenty. He was just starting to spend a little time in the midfield (either that, or he was working right up the ground as half forwards do these days), however, I do see him as a "excitement machine" bit player for the bombers and not a ball magnet. With that in mind, I don't see him averaging more than 70ppg. I think Headland could average between 85-90 ppg with the way the game is played now (less accountability), but he has is constantly let down by his small heart.

Don't think I'll pick either. I'll take the risk on Higgins realising his potential and Lucas returning to his 85+ppg best.

 

[Daz]

Wow your right, never noticed that. Was he taken mature age in draft?

I think alwyn has ability to improve, and being off a 43ppg price he will at least provide 15-20ppg upside in price i would think.

You dont think he could play a bit as an outside mid or off the wing?

Yeah, he could, and he's also a pretty safe bet to average 60+. My concerns with him are durability (2 LTI's in 2 years) and that I'm not convinced he'll be discounted. Having said that, Monty (and others) know a lot more about the pricing system than I do so if he does turn out to be as cheap as he is now then he does represent value.

 

[Lakey91]

I'm a massive Bomber fan, so I've watched Davey plenty. He was just starting to spend a little time in the midfield (either that, or he was working right up the ground as half forwards do these days), however, I do see him as a "excitement machine" bit player for the bombers and not a ball magnet. With that in mind, I don't see him averaging more than 70ppg.

Yeh fair call.

I think Headland could average between 85-90 ppg with the way the game is played now (less accountability), but he has is constantly let down by his small heart.

Nah headland would have to pull something incredible to average that - hes only ever once done it in his career and that was 7 years ago (in 2002 - its 2009 now), and he has averaged 70 consistently. 70s is where hes at i would think.

Don't think I'll pick either. I'll take the risk on Higgins realising his potential and Lucas returning to his 85+ppg best.

Agreed, if i was to pick though id probably pick davey (also depends on preseason though) due to him being 75k less.

 

[Knight Ryders]

This is why dreamteam is great. My opinion against your opinion!

When we talk comparisons, what do we think about the Carlton midfield vs the Geelong midfield this year?

Geelong are obviously the team that everyone tries to measure up to in the midfield. They took dream team averages to a new level last year. I think Carlton are the heir apparent in this area though with Murphy, Gibbs and Judd.

With that in mind, how many of you will pick Murphy and Gibbs this year instead of forking out the cash for the Geelong boys?

 

[Pie Legend]

Gibbs is all the talk at the moment. Many people think he can take that next step after averaging 100 from round 14 onwards.

But people will be put of by his experience (going into his 3rd year of AFL) and hie role and position in the team is unclear.

Each to there own I guess.

 

[SELFCONFESDAFLNERD]

and hie role and position in the team is unclear.

Yep, i think thats what will put people off but personally even if he does do tagging jobs i thionk he can get an average of around 90-95, the concern i have is if he gets just abojut a permanent midfield job he is probably damaging enough to draw the 2nd tag so IMO he could average 100 over say the first 4 rounds playing in the midfield then get tagged(once opposition teams realise how good he is, going number 1 in a "super draft" is not an easy thing to do) which could decrease output.

Its a tough call.....

 

[Cruiser23]

Yep, i think thats what will put people off but personally even if he does do tagging jobs i thionk he can get an average of around 90-95, the concern i have is if he gets just abojut a permanent midfield job he is probably damaging enough to draw the 2nd tag so IMO he could average 100 over say the first 4 rounds playing in the midfield then get tagged(once opposition teams realise how good he is, going number 1 in a "super draft" is not an easy thing to do) which could decrease output.

Its a tough call.....

I don't think him being tagged is an issue, not many team have two quality taggers and most of the time they don't tag more than one player, it takes away from there ability to score. Judd will always get the number 1 tag, he is only going to get better (he should have a full pre-season under his belt). Anyway Cassisi tried to go Gibbs for most of the game late in the year and he couldn't, not an issue for me.

 

[Lakey91]

Yeah, he could, and he's also a pretty safe bet to average 60+. My concerns with him are durability (2 LTI's in 2 years) and that I'm not convinced he'll be discounted. Having said that, Monty (and others) know a lot more about the pricing system than I do so if he does turn out to be as cheap as he is now then he does represent value.

If he wasnt discounted, there is no way i would consider him i wouldnt think.

Thats an interesting point you make about murphy + gibbs - can they become the DT kings? Has been no talk about murphy though. I havent really thought about him but anyone think he can enter the true elite and average 105+?

Anyway:

Fisher v Goddard

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

If he wasnt discounted, there is no way i would consider him i wouldnt think.

Thats an interesting point you make about murphy + gibbs - can they become the DT kings? Has been no talk about murphy though. I havent really thought about him but anyone think he can enter the true elite and average 105+?

Anyway:

Fisher v Goddard

I certainly have been eyeing off Murphy. I have been deciding between him and Deledio, ithink both could go to the next level as they are great dtmers. I feel M.Murphy is a better dtmer than Deledio as he seems to rack up very easy points with his high mark, tackle, kick game. I did put Murphy in one of my plan sides.

Fisher vs Goddard
^^ thinking about starting both but i prefer Goddard.

 

[Lakey91]

.Fisher vs Goddard
^^ thinking about starting both but i prefer Goddard.

Care to explain why? Goddard has Higher scope for improvement? Is this outweighed by goddards worse injury history? Starting both was also a thought but then i decided not too....

 

[Daz]

Keep in mind Goddard has 93 demerit points hanging over his head at the tribunal so one slip up and he's gone for 1 but probably 2 games.

 

[Daz]

Care to explain why? Goddard has Higher scope for improvement? Is this outweighed by goddards worse injury history? Starting both was also a thought but then i decided not too....

Why's that?

 

[SELFCONFESDAFLNERD]

stiller vs waters vs drummond
thoughts

I think this comparison has been forgotten a little.........

Josh Drummond

Age: 25

Height: 188cm

Weight: 85 kg

Recruited from: Northern Eagles in the 2003 rookie draft, mature age recruit

Years playing AFL: 4 (elevated from rookie list in 05)

Position: Rebounding small defender (takes kick outs too)

Career posession averages (per game):

2005: 14.14 disposals, 10.285 kicks, 3.857 handballs

2006: 15.9 disposals, 11.57 kicks, 4.285 handballs

2007: 21.3 disposals, 15 kicks, 6.27 handballs

2008: 17.5 disposals, 11.92 kicks, 5.538 handballs

His kick to handball ratio over his career is - 2.42 : - which is phenomonal.

DT averages:

2005: 60

2006: 69

2007: 86.4

2008: 68.5

My Random musings

Definitely a very damaging player by foot and can tear teams apart with his effective disposal up to 55 metres. This year he really did suffer with a tag and wasn't allowed any freedom playing a "quarterback" role.

The only round that i can remember where he didn't take a hard tag was that game against the Saints in round 9 at the Gabba. Remarkabley the Saints let him play loose man in defence (with Goddard loose man for the Saints) and he amassed 28 disposals (19 of which were kicks) and 105 DT points.

The only other game he was able to score over 100 in was against the Bulldogs who i'm quite sure didn't tag him so he has proven he can be a prolific scorer without the tag. (From memory the Doggies may have even tagged J-Mac that week)

There's no doubt that defensive forwards have become a part of our great game with quicker ball movement and transition (particularly with certain rebounding defenders: Shaw,Drummond,Burgoyne Hodge) goals (from half back) becoming more commen coaches are starting to assign "DT killing" players to shut down the "quarterbacks" teams play through.

Any chance of the tag loosening next year?
Can't really see many possibilities really unless Rich playes on the HBF (which is quite possible with his fitness questionable) and is instantly damaging, he has almost an equally damaging left boot.

DT potential?
Big. Has got the toughness to get in and under (underated in this area IMO, not inside mid quality but a good tackler and tough enough) and is the most damaging Lions player by foot (Power is close but now has lost distance on it), Lions will continue to look to get the ball in his hands unfortunately the tag will most likely limit his 09 scoring ability.

Versatile?
Yes, although he is at home in that loose man in defence role or "play of his man" role he is definitely a capable forward line crumber. He kicked 6 or 7 goals in a game in 07 playing for the Sunshine Coast Lions. Brisbane do have a vacant forward spot now with Corrie gone, hopefully that won't be filled by Harding. It could be a way that Vossy tries to break a tough tag on Drummond, swing him forward.

I could also see Drummond being moulded into an outside midfielder role if he worked heavily on his fitness. Whispers on the Lions board are suggesting that Power might play as a crumbing forward which could open up a spot in the midfield, I consider it unlikely (that Drummond fills that void) but not completely out of the question (particularly if Adcock moves back).

Injury issues?
As injury prone as they come, his shoulders seem very weak (Rusling and kenelly-esq) and has had groin issues I’m quite sure. At least he doesn’t have OP like Black as that Gabba centre square (the cricket wicket area) is very rough(not as bad as Manuka in Canberra but very bad nonetheless).

Hopefully his ongoing injury issues don’t affect his kicking although it could be a blessing in disguise (for DT) as without his damaging kicking he wouldn’t draw a tag IMO and would probably still be in the 22 (its a very long shot but i'm trying to think outside the square). Basically, there are many risks involved with getting Drummond and TBH I don’t quite see how he’s going to overcome them. I hate in when brilliant DT’ers are decimated by injury issues/tags


Beau Waters

Age: 22

Height: 187cm

Weight: 87kg

Recruited from: West Adelaide, pick 11 in 2003 ND

Years playing AFL: 5 (but missed all 05)

Position: Small Defender/ midfielder

Career possession averages:

2004: 13.8 disposals, 8.1 kicks, 5.7 handballs

2006: 17 disposals, 9.26 kicks, 7.695 handballs

2007: 20.7 disposals, 10.35 kicks, 10.3 handballs

2008: 16.3 disposals, 10.75 kicks, 5.5 handballs


DT averages:

2004: 53.9

2006: 69.4

2007: 79.9

2008: 68.9

My Random musings

I think you have got to love watching this guy play; he’s as tough as they come and his courage is brilliant. Reckless? Nah (opinions differ though, missed rounds 8 & 9 this year because of rough conduct)!!

Waters has been much maligned for his inconsistent (being nice there) kicking but who needs it when your as tough as him. He also has a very strong tackle as you’d expect (averaged 3 a game in 08) and a deceptively good leap, strong overhead with a quite good tank.

I’m not sure where he really stands in the Eagles team role wise, maybe some Eagles fans can help me out? I would like to see him really winning the ball in the midfield when fully fit but with all the Eagles midfielders I can’t really see that happening.

I think he could either play a defensive back man role or a defensive forward role which would limit his DT ability. If you buy him you probably want him to get back to his best and average around 80 again and hopefully play 20+ games (did that in 6 and 07).

As far as DT goes I would like to see him play as a small defender (half accountable but still racking p the possessions.)

He’s in the leadership group for 09 so hoping he can step up in 09 with more responsibility, he’s a great on field leader.

Injuries?
Huge worry again, like Drummond. Contact injuries become a problem when you go in as hard as he does. In 05 he had thigh problems then an ongoing groin injury (I think he had surgery) made him miss the whole of 05. This year he dislocated his elbow and had surgery on it, so he really is in the wars.







Cheynee Stiller

Age: 22

Height: 186 cm

Weight: 77 kg

Recruited from: Northern Eagles (05 rookie draft)

Years playing AFL: 3 (elevated in 06)

Position: HBF/Midfielder (better outside)


Career possession averages:

2006: 20.9 disposals, 12.15 kicks, 8.78 handballs

2007: 20.2 disposals, 11.5 kicks, 8.68 handballs

2008: 15.2 disposals, 7.8 kicks, 7.4 handballs


DT averages:

2006: 84.5

2007: 82.2

2008: 65.2


My Random Thoughts

Was entrenched in the 22 in 2007 playing all the games, maintaining a good average.
Is a ball magnet and if he gets games I rate him the best DT player out of the three in the analysis.

Really has looked like a ball magnet in the games he’s played and he seems to get a lot of handball receives. Ok disposal but I think if he continues to be that “link man” he will need to offer greater service to Brown and Bradshaw than he did in 08.

His foot skills seemed to be better in the 07 season and I think if he gets that up to standard then I think he could eek his way into the Lions best 22.

We will see how he goes at training, I have quite high raps for him and I think with a little bit better disposal and a higher work rate (work on defensive side of his game) and greater tank he could be a good DT’mer in the future. He could particularly thrive if Voss plays a game style that is conjusive to good DT numbers.

Unfortunately I think his time is now, will need a strong showing in the 09 NAB cup and do well at training to be considered best 22 material IMO.

FTR, I have only seen about 2 or 3 people on BF include him in Lions best 22 which is a very big worry. I think he’s at 310k or something so you would need him to cement a spot in the 22 to be considered.

He’s priced almost 20 below his 2006 numbers so he is underpriced which brings him into contention particularly in the backline (if VS put him there) as he could become a keeper. NAB CUP needs to be huge for him to be considered though IMO. The question is do you want to fork out 310-320 k on a guy that even if he is in the team come round 1 might get dropped at any moment. (got dropped this year, even when averaging nearly 20 posessions, poor execution let him down)

Big upside but he has associated risks. I think if he is only a centre (for DT) then he won’t come into consideration because he’s very unlikely to be a keeper even if playing in the Lions team most weeks.



Summary

Each player has their associated risks which is very annoying as in their own right I believe they all have quite big DT potential. I definitely think Stiller is leading the way in potential upside as he is almost certain to get midfield time (even if he plays on the half back/half forward line, he will be thrown in the middle IMO).

Waters probably has the least upside as I don’t think his game is conjucive to high DT figures but if he gets midfield time he is definitely an option. I think he is yet to reach his potential with injuries probably postponing his progress a little. Injury risk is too great IMO to be thinking he can be a keeper which is probably what you want from his price.

Drummond has big upside as like Stiller he is priced well under previous years DT averages. Tags are stopping him from averaging 90+ IMO and so too injuries. Big risk but I think he is the most likely to be a keeper (only because I don’t think Stiller will be a back, if he is he’s probably just as likely IMO) if it weren’t for injuries.

Hence, I wouldn’t have any of these in my team. On potential upside I rate them……..

• Drummond (role good for DT), good player too
• Stiller (midfielder if he can crack 22)
• Waters (undefined role) but brilliant player IMO

Going on how I think 09 will go with upside…..

• Stiller (if he cracks 22 I think will get highest average of the 3)
• Waters (won’t get tagged and IMO tough enough to win the ball even if he plays a defensive role, still don’t think he’ll put up big numbers though, hopefully Beau Waters settles with 1 role (ideally one good for DT) and doesn’t get thrown around alot, major injury issues)
• Drummond (although IMO reasonably versatile he really has made a name for himself as a rebounding defender, definitely see him getting a tag and not getting near his 07 average, can’t see him being thrown forward as he hasn’t been thrown forward for the Lions yet, major injury issues too)

Just can not see any way of Drummond being productive if he continues to get tagged, it is very annoying.

I wouldn’t pick any of the three but I can see definite reasons why people would……

 

[Junior boi]

Goddard will see more midfield time. Fisher is more likely to be handed a lock down role.

That's my take.

 

[Hirdy_5]

Very, Very nice work SCAN.

Thought it would be interseting to look at these players durability as well.

Drummond -

2005 - 14
2006 - 7
2007 - 11
2008 - 13
Average games per year. - 11.25

Stiller -

2006 - 13
2007 - 22
2008 - 10
Average games per year. - 15

Waters -

2004 - 10
2006 - 23
2007 - 20
2008 - 8
Average games per year. - 15.25

Also to add with Drummond over the past year or two his main problems have been his quads and hammys IIRC. But was reading an artical recently that quoted him saying that he isn't having a modified pre season this year, IIRC he had a much littler pre season last year not through injury through choice to try make sure he could get through more than say 16 games, but clearly that didn't work so he is now trying the ' Go all out approach ' don't know if it will work or not though.

For me it's hard to split the three of them, all have shown that they can average higher than their 08' seasons so their is value in all of them, but you have to sum up if the vaule out weighs the risks involved because at their prices you would be looking for a protential keeper than more of a cash cow.

 

[Colin D'Cops]

Stiller -

2006 - 13
2007 - 22
2008 - 10
Average games per year. - 15

I don't think Stiller's durability is the question. He played ten games last year but why he played so few was mainly because of him not getting selected.

IIRC, he had a fair few EMG positions but just couldn't crack into the side on a regular basis.

 

[Hirdy_5]

I don't think Stiller's durability is the question. He played ten games last year but why he played so few was mainly because of him not getting selected.

IIRC, he had a fair few EMG positions but just couldn't crack into the side on a regular basis.

Yeah fair point, the main aim was to show the durability of Drummond and Waters (Or lack there of). As Stiller was part of the Question i just threw him in there.

Should be good to moniter Stillers pre season progress and NAB cub form.

 

[54Dogs]

I don't think Stiller's durability is the question. He played ten games last year but why he played so few was mainly because of him not getting selected.

IIRC, he had a fair few EMG positions but just couldn't crack into the side on a regular basis.

Correct GS, at his price job security is the issue.

Very, Very nice work SCAN.

Thought it would be interseting to look at these players durability as well.

Drummond -

2005 - 14
2006 - 7
2007 - 11
2008 - 13
Average games per year. - 11.25

Stiller -

2006 - 13
2007 - 22
2008 - 10
Average games per year. - 15

Waters -

2004 - 10
2006 - 23
2007 - 20
2008 - 8
Average games per year. - 15.25

Also to add with Drummond over the past year or two his main problems have been his quads and hammys IIRC. But was reading an artical recently that quoted him saying that he isn't having a modified pre season this year, IIRC he had a much littler pre season last year not through injury through choice to try make sure he could get through more than say 16 games, but clearly that didn't work so he is now trying the ' Go all out approach ' don't know if it will work or not though.

Agree, great work SCAN.

Drummond may be helped this year with the inclusion of Dalziell as another rebounding option off HB. You can't tag them all. Port possibly trying a similar thing with Davenport to help PBurgoyne. Works well for the Saints who have Gram, Goddard and Fisher so a tag is pointless as there are other QB options.

Injury is the big issue. He just needs to get his body right plus his role with Voss there is undefined. Remember he's only had 1 year averaging over 70 and won't get that sort of freedom again.

 

[Buddyman]

Couple of Questions, first is Buddy having a limited preseason and second whats everyones take on sam fisher. At the moment I've got him in my side due to durability and that I think he could average slightly more, thoughts?

 

[Lakey91]

Why's that?

At this stage im planning to only have two backs 400+ plus, and im looking at chad for one, and probably fisher/goddard for the other.

 

[Effes]

At this stage im planning to only have two backs 400+ plus, and im looking at chad for one, and probably fisher/goddard for the other.

That is if Chad is a back, which he shouldn't be.