Polls Thread Mk III

[Caesar]

New government, time for a new thread. First Essential poll out today, has some interesting results:

#Essential Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 53 (0) ALP 47 (0)
#Essential Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 44 (-1) ALP 36 (+1) GRN 9 (0)
#Essential Poll State of Australian Economy: Good 40 (+4) Poor 25 (-5)
#Essential Poll Does Govt lacking majority in Senate result in a better or worse Govt: Better 44 Worse 30
#Essential Poll How will economic conditions in Aus change in next 12 months: Better 38 Worse 33 Stay the same 19

Marked increase in economic confidence there, since the change of government. Justified or not, I hope it's accompanied by a corresponding improvement in consumer confidence for the next quarter.

 

[BMWrules]

Caesar


Essential is not a very reliable polling agency, are they the first out ?

I think we need to ignore polling for at least 12 months prefer the government settles in and starts real work with real impacts before we look at them with a 24hr media spin poll driven microscope.

I think the big question on polling (which I picked up before the election) why was there a big difference between marginal polling versus national polling which proved highly accurate. The marginal polling is either a flawed idea or needs to be done better.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

I would be quite happy if I never saw another opinion poll again.

 

[BMWrules]

I would be quite happy if I never saw another opinion poll again.

Kynge


I kind of agree, sure the party's can do their own thing but public polls should only come out nearer an election. Not sure what a poll means before a government is even sworn in ??? Are there people out there shocked by the outcome of the election ?

 

[Caesar]

The 2PP/Primary vote are not the important bit. It may only be a week after the election, but the jump in economic optimism is instructive. Indicates that pre-election polls saying the Coalition were more trusted on the economy were correct.

Whether the big increase is warranted or not, it's good news for consumer confidence.

 

[clogged]

The 2PP/Primary vote are not the important bit. It may only be a week after the election, but the jump in economic optimism is instructive. Indicates that pre-election polls saying the Coalition were more trusted on the economy were correct.

Whether the big increase is warranted or not, it's good news for consumer confidence.

I find it strange that economics is treated as such a serious discipline given that the health of an economy is based on whatever fairy tales people tell themselves.

 

[Caesar]

I find it strange that economics is treated as such a serious discipline given that the health of an economy is based on whatever fairy tales people tell themselves.

Every society needs a religion.

 

[clogged]

What a dull religion. At least Christianity has transubstantiation.

 

[Pessimistic]

Not to mention loaves and fishes, magic pudding style

 

[samFFC]

https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes
Useful account to follow for the latest in polls.

Latest TPP


Also Primary Vote


And this on Climate Change Policy (unfortunately)

 

[Docker Clint]

Morgan poll showing Labor ahead. How often does a sitting government fall behind in the polls so soon after an election?

 

[Caesar]

It's a one point swing, well within the margin of error. I wouldn't get too excited until the other polls come in.

 

[Docker Clint]

You have to admit that it's unusual. Labor don't even have a leader yet, could be a new strategy for them.

 

[Caesar]

Not really. Don't forget, you have to compare apples with apples. That means comparing this Morgan poll to the last Morgan poll (which shot a lot lower than the actual 2PP on election day).

On that basis, the Coalition has had a one point swing against them since being elected. A government experiencing a one point negative swing in the first six weeks is not that unusual.

I will be interested to see the figures from the other polling companies though. If they bear out a trend away from the Government, next month's figures will be interesting. If they are also negative, then it's probably safe to say the Government has a problem.

 

[MUYB]

It might be an incorrect number, but if it is right its very troubling for them. Gillard in 2010 held the 2pp for six months coming off a 50.5 2pp at the election(latest Abbott figures from aec were 53 I think?) And Rudd in his first term never lost the 2pp.
Also not sure where you're getting the claim of Morgan going much lower than result, the last Morgan I could find pre election was 53.5 and their exit polls were also pretty spot on.

 

[Inferno]

A government experiencing a one point negative swing in the first six weeks is not that unusual.

Really? I can't recall it happening. At least not recently.

Gillard had a bounce both when she became leader and post election.

Rudd both in 2007 and when he became leader.

I'm presuming Howard had a bounce too at the very least due to Port Arthur, which obviously was an exceptional circumstance.

The current crop of Liberal state Government's all either had a bounce (Vic and WA) or were around about the same level off an incredibly high base (NSW and Qld).

Even Bracks had all the momentum back in 1999 to romp home in a supplementary by-election a month after the election.

 

[Caesar]

2004, 2001 and 1998 the Government experienced negative swings within a month of winning the election.

 

[Inferno]

Caesar I didn't make my point clearly but I was thinking more along the lines of newly elected governments (or leaders in the case of Gillard and Rudd) rather than the re-election of incumbents.

Every newly elected Government I can think of has received some sort of bounce or honeymoon period after being elected. Even new leaders who come in midterm generally get a bounce/honeymoon, if not to the party vote than at least for the personal vote. I find it very unusual that the Abbott Government seemingly hasn't.

Just from a personal standpoint it seems as though there's a level of voter fatigue about the Government already as if they've already been in power for several years.

 

[Caesar]

Well, if you're only looking at changes of government then it's a pretty small sample size.

If I was to speculate, I would suggest that a honeymoon period is a result of being an unknown quantity whilst your opponent is a known quantity. Here, Abbott has 5 years of leadership and the Opposition... well, there is no Opposition, really. No leader and no policies. So if anything, the positions are reversed.

For that reason I would say that it is hard to draw much of a conclusion from a slight 2PP shift at this point. Once the Opposition crystallises and you have two parties with two platforms to compare, things will become a bit clearer.

 

[tazzietiger]

Latest reachtel poll.

Primary
Coalition 44.8
Alp 34.1

The better pm poll shows Abbott in front of both shorten and albo in nsw but behind both of them before in vic. More interesting though because Shorten will become the party leader is that Albo leads in vic and nsw as the preferred alp leader over Shorten by a good margin.

http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/fairfax-media-nsw-vic-federal-poll-8october2013

 

[The_Reaper]

You have to admit that it's unusual. Labor don't even have a leader yet, could be a new strategy for them.

No leader is probably more popular than Gillard and Rudd.

 

[Inferno]

Well, if you're only looking at changes of government then it's a pretty small sample size.

If I was to speculate, I would suggest that a honeymoon period is a result of being an unknown quantity whilst your opponent is a known quantity. Here, Abbott has 5 years of leadership and the Opposition... well, there is no Opposition, really. No leader and no policies. So if anything, the positions are reversed.

For that reason I would say that it is hard to draw much of a conclusion from a slight 2PP shift at this point. Once the Opposition crystallises and you have two parties with two platforms to compare, things will become a bit clearer.

It might be a small sample size, I just can't recall any new Government going even slightly backwards ever though either state or federal, or even overseas in comparable political systems off the top of my head.

Two very recent examples - Baillieu and O'Farrell were both Opposition leaders longer than Abbott and both enjoyed significant honeymoons, hell O'Farrell is arguably still on his two and a half years after being elected!

I'm not saying it's anything overly important or reading too much into it, it's just quite interesting and seemingly rare.

 

[finders]

The 2PP/Primary vote are not the important bit. It may only be a week after the election, but the jump in economic optimism is instructive. Indicates that pre-election polls saying the Coalition were more trusted on the economy were correct.

Whether the big increase is warranted or not, it's good news for consumer confidence.

In my business and many others I have spoken to reckon the boost to buyer confidence is crap
There was a small boost during the two weeks leading up to the election and then back to where it was before.
As to the Abbott government I dont see them getting any boost as a large % of people hate him with a passion and many more voted for him only because the liked the other mob less

I reckon he will have one of the shortest honeymoons of any leader in recent history and the pathetic way they have started wont help either.The public with turn on Abbott very quickly if he starts to stuff up -which I predict he and a number of his talentless leftover Howard hack Ministers will do soon enough.

 

[Caesar]

In my business and many others I have spoken to reckon the boost to buyer confidence is crap
There was a small boost during the two weeks leading up to the election and then back to where it was before.

That seems somewhat at odds with the figures we're seeing. According to the Consumer Sentiment Index consumer confidence rose 4.7% in September, although it's dropped back 2.1% since the start of this month. This week's Business Confidence Index shows a rise oi 16% since the election, and is currently at a three and a half year high. Those seem to back up the poll results.

Other figures seem to indicate that the economy itself hasn't improved much, but for whatever reason everybody is feeling a lot more optimistic than they were prior to the election.

As to the Abbott government I dont see them getting any boost as a large % of people hate him with a passion and many more voted for him only because the liked the other mob less


I reckon he will have one of the shortest honeymoons of any leader in recent history and the pathetic way they have started wont help either.The public with turn on Abbott very quickly if he starts to stuff up -which I predict he and a number of his talentless leftover Howard hack Ministers will do soon enough.

It will be interesting to see how things fall out, once we have a proper Opposition in place.

 

[Dry Rot]

First Newspoll since the election - looks like the ALP leaders election hasn't helped them

In the first Newspoll since the September 7 election, the Prime Minister has recorded his best net satisfaction rating since he took over as Liberal leader in December 2009.
Mr Abbott has also opened a commanding 47 per cent to 28 per cent lead over new Opposition Leader Bill Shorten on the question of who would make the better prime minister, with 25 per cent of voters still uncommitted.
The Newspoll survey, which was conducted exclusively for The Australian at the weekend, reveals Labor's primary vote has slipped to 31 per cent compared with its September 7 election day result of 33.3 per cent. This represents Labor's lowest primary vote survey since the height of the then government's leadership turmoil in June, which ended with Kevin Rudd toppling Julia Gillard as prime minister. The Coalition's primary vote has risen to 47 per cent from its 45.6 per cent result on election day.
Based on preference flows at the August 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 56 per cent to 44 per cent lead over Labor after preferences.
- See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...y-fnc6vkbc-1226748544836#sthash.v0Fxji1J.dpuf