Polls Thread Mk III

[finders]

Only to be expected as a lot of people clearly voted against Labor and not for Abbott who has never been loved by the electrorate and now he has just reinforced their worst fears.Turnbull would be loving this.

Its the same as when you buy something you know is wrong and dont really need but a slick salesman talked you into it and that horrible feeling of what have I stupidly done feeling when you get home.

BTW Morgan has a small gap as well so this is not a rouge poll.Most new governments get a boost after being elected but not this talentless Murdoch/News one.

 

[Redalert]

I'll be more interested in seeing polls from July 1st onwards, still too early to tell for mine where the government's heading when they can't actually pass legislation through the Senate.

 

[poller]

Probably not a "thrashing defeat", given only around 11 Lib/Nat seats sit on a margin of less than 3%. Labor is likely to claw back a few of these at the election.

5.5% swing against the government , if that swing can be maintained or greater

labor would go close getting control of both houses

Let abbott call a dd election , he wont be the prime minister after it

 

[poller]

dont be surprise to see newspoll be the rogue poll

Newsltd helped to put abbott into government ,

 

[Juddism]

the Minister for No Comment will/was on Breakfast with Fran..let's see what this clown has to say!

I think Laurie Oakes summed it up perfectly less than a fornight ago when he questioned the government thumbing it's nose at the public when it came to commenting on issues.

 

[Slax]

5.5% swing against the government , if that swing can be maintained or greater

labor would go close getting control of both houses

Let abbott call a dd election , he wont be the prime minister after it

I think the Senate landscape has changed completely and I'll be surprised if either party get control inside the next decade at least. The voters want some level of control and the Senate offers that and with an alternative left (Greens) & right (PUP) option available they'll both continue to win seats.

As for those Lib diehards hang on to the preferred PM figure, get over it, the incumbent wins this and if Abbott was behind already there'd be people sharpening knives in the Liberal Party already.

It also now kills the Lib threats of a double dissolution over the Carbon Tax and their demands for Labor to vote for it. Clearly not working and people seeing through the Libs already.

 

[pjcrows]

Election now. The people have lost faith in this Government.

 

[little graham]

Other thing is the other guy called Malcolm. He had his wife convince him first time about 5 years ago, to hang around.

You can lead a horse to water but you can't turn bull around

 

[tandino]

As for those Lib diehards hang on to the preferred PM figure, get over it

Seriously?

It was the ALP cheerleaders who were late to the party on this one. They were using it to perpetuate a myth long after all other facts had deserted them.

Most rational people came to this realisation years ago.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Probably rogue. It still makes a mockery of those who said the Liberals were guaranteed 3 terms in government. With the constant media attention things can change very quickly as this shows. It also adds weight to what a number of previous polls pointed to, that the public's issue with Labor had much less to do with policy and a lot to do with all the leadership speculation. As soon as Rudd and Gillard are gone and Labor get a semblance of unity, they've bounced back in the polls without really announcing any policy major policy changes.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

I'm a little disappointed that Fairfax didn't use the Headline "Bill Shock!" or "Abbot's Bill Shock!"

 

[Caesar]

5.5% swing against the government

It's not a 5.5% swing. The baseline is the last Nielsen poll before the election, not the actual 2PP on polling day.

 

[Gough]

Maybe some of the Coalition voters at the last election are starting to repent.

 

[Footy Smarts]

It's not a 5.5% swing. The baseline is the last Nielsen poll before the election, not the actual 2PP on polling day.

So it's a 6% swing based on 2PP breakdown. The breakdown compared to the last Neilsen prior to the election is:

LNP - 41 (-5)
ALP - 37 (+4)
GRN - 11 (steady)

2PP
ALP - 52 (+6)
LNP - 48 (-6)

It should be noted that the 2PP figures are based on how those voters said they would allocate preferences rather than based on the previous election which has historically been less accurate. Also the figures in WA and QLD are clearly rogues. There's simply no way the ALP leads on 2PP in either state yet his poll showed 52-48 in WA and an incredible 55-45 in QLD. Whether that's just a result of randomly getting a pro-Labor sample with a very small size or some blow back on recent events it's impossible to see that being the outcome if an election were held any time soon.

 

[PottSie2]

Going to be along 6 years for you guys.

People haven't seen enough to for a true opinion as yet as all weve had is Labor stuff ups rearing their ugly head.

Abbott and Co. will need to adjust their media strategy to be a bit more active.

Going from the manic in your face of the hilarious Labor days to being invisible has gone too far. They will find a happy medium.

Sent from my phone to Annoy Noddy

 

[PottSie2]

I'm a little disappointed that Fairfax didn't use the Headline "Bill Shock!" or "Abbot's Bill Shock!"

Their headline was quite funny.

Strong showing from Bill Shorten.


Sent from my phone to Annoy Noddy

 

[Gough]

The Queensland results, while probably overcooked somewhat ,would have a bit to do with the way Campbell Newman is running things up there.

 

[blackcat]

Only to be expected as a lot of people clearly voted against Labor and not for Abbott who has never been loved by the electrorate and now he has just reinforced their worst fears.Turnbull would be loving this.

Its the same as when you buy something you know is wrong and dont really need but a slick salesman talked you into it and that horrible feeling of what have I stupidly done feeling when you get home.

BTW Morgan has a small gap as well so this is not a rouge poll.Most new governments get a boost after being elected but not this talentless Murdoch/News one.

 

[samFFC]

5.5% swing against the government , if that swing can be maintained or greater

labor would go close getting control of both houses

Let abbott call a dd election , he wont be the prime minister after it

Agreed that DD would be a poor choice, as it always would have been. But with a result like this, wouldn't be considered.

I think the Senate landscape has changed completely and I'll be surprised if either party get control inside the next decade at least. The voters want some level of control and the Senate offers that and with an alternative left (Greens) & right (PUP) option available they'll both continue to win seats.

As for those Lib diehards hang on to the preferred PM figure, get over it, the incumbent wins this and if Abbott was behind already there'd be people sharpening knives in the Liberal Party already.

It also now kills the Lib threats of a double dissolution over the Carbon Tax and their demands for Labor to vote for it. Clearly not working and people seeing through the Libs already.

Spot on.

 

[Caesar]

Newman has copped a lot of flak, and his poll numbers have taken a big hit since he was elected, but he still holds a very comfortable lead over his state opposition.

It's ridiculously premature to say that this scotches the chances of a double dissolution. We are 8 or 9 months away from the possibility of a DD, the political landscape will change many times between now and then.

 

[Pessimistic]

It just shows that people are dissatisfied generally, and a small minority know exactly what they are dissatisfied with, and an small minority of that minority have pinned the blame on the government, which they dont deserve yet obviously

 

[samFFC]

Newman has copped a lot of flak, and his poll numbers have taken a big hit since he was elected, but he still holds a very comfortable lead over his state opposition.

It's ridiculously premature to say that this scotches the chances of a double dissolution. We are 8 or 9 months away from the possibility of a DD, the political landscape will change many times between now and then.

Did you initially think there was initial a chance of that happening, given the fragmentation of votes on both sides? With a quota of 7%, surely this would lead to a much less predictable and potentially more politically difficult arrangement for the Coalition?

Palmer would likely increase to 4-5 seats at least, and there would still be the LibDems/Shooters/Sports Party/other minor party(ies) that would pick up a few seats. Plus Xenophon would get 2 seats in SA.

I would like to see it, because it would make the Senate even more diverse, but can't imagine Abbott would have ever seriously thought it was a positive outcome?

 

[Caesar]

Well, you have to remember that a quota of 7% doesn't automatically mean anybody who can get to 7% in a normal election gets in. It also makes it easier for the major parties to get to a quota. It does benefit minor parties, but not nearly as much as one would assume.

The main upshot is that (presuming the Coalition had favourable polling) any double dissolution would leave the ALP/Greens bloc in a worse position, which is a positive for a sitting government. Most of the minors are much easier for the Coalition to negotiate with, so the more of them the better.

 

[samFFC]

Well, you have to remember that a quota of 7% doesn't automatically mean anybody who can get to 7% in a normal election gets in.

How so?

The main upshot is that (presuming the Coalition had favourable polling) any double dissolution would leave the ALP/Greens bloc in a worse position, which is a positive for a sitting government. Most of the minors are much easier for the Coalition to negotiate with, so the more of them the better.

That is true. But on the assumption that these minor parties wouldn't hold the govt to ransom until they got a specific policy through eg. PUP with electoral reform. Too many differing "single issue" policies could:
a. come into conflict with each other
b. force the govt into implementing an unpopular policy for the sake of achieving its own agenda

 

[Caesar]

How so?

Because the net result of smaller quotas is that the major parties pick up more seats on first preferences, resulting in less preferences flowing from the majors to the minors. As a result, the minors stack lower than they do at a normal half Senate election.

There is still a benefit to the minor parties. Just not as big as you would first assume.

That is true. But on the assumption that these minor parties wouldn't hold the govt to ransom until they got a specific policy through eg. PUP with electoral reform. Too many differing "single issue" policies could:
a. come into conflict with each other
b. force the govt into implementing an unpopular policy for the sake of achieving its own agenda

The number of seats held by ALP/Greens determines the bargaining power of the crossbenchers. The less seats the ALP/Greens hold, the more 'unnecessary' crossbenchers there will be. That makes it easier for the government to play them off against each other and therefore reduces their bargaining power.