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Polls Thread Mk III
- Thread starter Caesar
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Yep, but the rusted on ALP fans here (and in the media) were clinging to it like it was the last life raft on the titanic when Rudd and Gillard were ahead. 2 Party Preferred is the only one that really matters. Unless / until optional preferential voting comes in, even the ALP's low primary vote is not that serious as long as the drift is to the Greens and they just get them back as 2nd preferences.
Heading into an election Mumble (the Australian so take that as some here will) has the interesting view that an unpopular leader and a high party vote can be taken as better as you then know those who are saying they'll vote for a party will, it's not artificially inflated prior to heading into the ballot box by preferring a leader, even though you don't like the party.
As for the primary vote and 2PP they aren't a surprise. Change of government and you get the inevitable new opposition blame game. That'll continue for awhile yet with Rudd and Gillard proxies (and Gillard herself) on shows or books in the works. The post budget polls will be the first ones where people seriously start to look at the government rather than just remembering the last term.
You would think someone would have work out the preference flows from the 2013 election already.
My rough working of the 2010 - The ALP got 60% of the Greens and others votes thru preferences
My rough working of the 2013 - The ALP got 62.5% of the Greens and others votes thru preferences
For all the discussion just over 1% of alp primary votes moved to the coalition. (Am i right reading that)
Hardly baseball bats stuff, more flowed on 2010
Hardly baseball bats stuff, more flowed on 2010
Still in his honeymoon period & to be honest Shorten has a lot of ground to make up to gain credibility to even think about offering himself up as an alternative PM.
- Aug 11, 2012
- 7,011
- 10,797
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Even still, Libs would have to be pretty ecstatic with that sort of poll atm.
- Thread starter
- #35
PPM doesn't mean anything beyond how secure the leader's job is.
finders
Norm Smith Medallist
I see Abbott and co have pissed Laurie Oakes off pretty badly by going to ground and thats a person you would want to have on side not against you.
Stupid Baillieu tried the same tactic of treating the jornos with contempt and we all know how that ended up.
With all the other media platforms available to the masses now the LNP wont be able to keep treating the public and media like mushrooms for very long
- Thread starter
- #37
Depriving the MSM of oxygen may backfire on them, although it seems to have worked pretty well so far with the boats. They are copping far less heat on that front than Labor did.
'Other media platforms' will have no effect though. There is nothing more overrated than the political impact of alternative media.
'Other media platforms' will have no effect though. There is nothing more overrated than the political impact of alternative media.
And even that is only if they are behind in the polls. Abbott was not the PPM most of the last parliament, but didn't matter jack with the lead the Coalition had.
As discussed on here numerous times, PPM is almost meaningless.
- Jul 1, 2013
- 22,319
- 18,669
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
- Other Teams
- Fulham, 76ers, Cubs, Bills
GOAUS!
Norm Smith Medallist
- Apr 20, 2010
- 9,783
- 7,519
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
How has it been disastrous ?
Its probably an outlier but....
Abbott and Credlin and Morrison did an opposition as anvil around your government's neck well.
the only trouble with this polling is atleast one thing. Krudd has said he would resign. But it was presumed he hands in his ticket for a by-election to be married to any potential West senate redux.
Other thing is the other guy called Malcolm. He had his wife convince him first time about 5 years ago, to hang around.
the only trouble with this polling is atleast one thing. Krudd has said he would resign. But it was presumed he hands in his ticket for a by-election to be married to any potential West senate redux.
Other thing is the other guy called Malcolm. He had his wife convince him first time about 5 years ago, to hang around.
#luvv!es
#pavlov_dog_leg_in_air_mouth_breathing
#iced_vovos_+hugs_with_Therese
#pavlov_dog_leg_in_air_mouth_breathing
#iced_vovos_+hugs_with_Therese
ok edit: Shorten v Abbott preferred PM.
- Banned
- #49
He got in on three years of relentless negativity and Labor leader problems, not any positive talk. Now after eleven weeks he's done 180s and drawn up bridge from the media and so the public.
I can believe it.
I can believe it.
- Jul 1, 2013
- 22,319
- 18,669
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
- Other Teams
- Fulham, 76ers, Cubs, Bills
Probably not a "thrashing defeat", given only around 11 Lib/Nat seats sit on a margin of less than 3%. Labor is likely to claw back a few of these at the election.
There are however quite a few seats won by Lib/Nat candidate, with a margin just above 3% (eg. Deakin, Robertson, Lindsay, La Trobe, Bass, Bonner). Interesting to see how those new Members are viewed by the local community, and if they will retain seats in the face of a swing against the Govt in next election, on the back of strong local support. These are the seats that need to swing to bring about a Hung Parliament or ALP victory.
But Shorten and co would be encouraged.
