Polls Thread Mk III

[DeanoT]

Also shows what a ridiculous poll preferred prime minister is.

 

[Andre]

Also shows what a ridiculous poll preferred prime minister is.

Yep, but the rusted on ALP fans here (and in the media) were clinging to it like it was the last life raft on the titanic when Rudd and Gillard were ahead. 2 Party Preferred is the only one that really matters. Unless / until optional preferential voting comes in, even the ALP's low primary vote is not that serious as long as the drift is to the Greens and they just get them back as 2nd preferences.

Heading into an election Mumble (the Australian so take that as some here will) has the interesting view that an unpopular leader and a high party vote can be taken as better as you then know those who are saying they'll vote for a party will, it's not artificially inflated prior to heading into the ballot box by preferring a leader, even though you don't like the party.

As for the primary vote and 2PP they aren't a surprise. Change of government and you get the inevitable new opposition blame game. That'll continue for awhile yet with Rudd and Gillard proxies (and Gillard herself) on shows or books in the works. The post budget polls will be the first ones where people seriously start to look at the government rather than just remembering the last term.

 

[Todman]

First Newspoll since the election - looks like the ALP leaders election hasn't helped them Based on preference flows at the August 2010 election

You would think someone would have work out the preference flows from the 2013 election already.

 

[Todman]

You would think someone would have work out the preference flows from the 2013 election already.

My rough working of the 2010 - The ALP got 60% of the Greens and others votes thru preferences
My rough working of the 2013 - The ALP got 62.5% of the Greens and others votes thru preferences

 

[Pessimistic]

For all the discussion just over 1% of alp primary votes moved to the coalition. (Am i right reading that)

Hardly baseball bats stuff, more flowed on 2010

 

[yibbida]

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5279-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-201311060444

L-NP (50%) now level with ALP (50%) as Western Australia set to vote again for the Senate

 

[Crawb]

According to that Morgan poll PUP Primary at 5.5% nationally and 12.5% in Qld, ****ing hell!

Amazed that TPP is 50-50 but yet Abbott has been smashing Shorten in most popular PM polls.

 

[noddy]

According to that Morgan poll PUP Primary at 5.5% nationally and 12.5% in Qld, ****ing hell!

Amazed that TPP is 50-50 but yet Abbott has been smashing Shorten in most popular PM polls.

Still in his honeymoon period & to be honest Shorten has a lot of ground to make up to gain credibility to even think about offering himself up as an alternative PM.

 

[Crawb]

Still in his honeymoon period & to be honest Shorten has a lot of ground to make up to gain credibility to even think about offering himself up as an alternative PM.

Even still, Libs would have to be pretty ecstatic with that sort of poll atm.

 

[Caesar]

PPM doesn't mean anything beyond how secure the leader's job is.

 

[finders]

PPM doesn't mean anything beyond how secure the leader's job is.

I see Abbott and co have pissed Laurie Oakes off pretty badly by going to ground and thats a person you would want to have on side not against you.
Stupid Baillieu tried the same tactic of treating the jornos with contempt and we all know how that ended up.

With all the other media platforms available to the masses now the LNP wont be able to keep treating the public and media like mushrooms for very long

 

[Caesar]

Depriving the MSM of oxygen may backfire on them, although it seems to have worked pretty well so far with the boats. They are copping far less heat on that front than Labor did.

'Other media platforms' will have no effect though. There is nothing more overrated than the political impact of alternative media.

 

[Andre]

PPM doesn't mean anything beyond how secure the leader's job is.

And even that is only if they are behind in the polls. Abbott was not the PPM most of the last parliament, but didn't matter jack with the lead the Coalition had.

 

[tandino]

As discussed on here numerous times, PPM is almost meaningless.

 

[samFFC]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...latest-newspoll/story-fn59niix-1226757724225#

 

[Adz]

When does the next poll come out?
I suspect it'll be back to 50/50 after the disastrous month Abbott has had.

 

[GOAUS!]

When does the next poll come out?
I suspect it'll be back to 50/50 after the disastrous month Abbott has had.

Newspoll usually comes out each Tuesday fortnightly, so we should have another one this Tuesday.

 

[Pessimistic]

How has it been disastrous ?

 

[Adz]

In the space on 2 months, Abbott has managed to turn a crushing election victory into what would be a thrashing defeat at the polls.

#Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 ALP 52 #auspol

 

[midorigreenwood]

Its probably an outlier but....

 

[blackcat]

Abbott and Credlin and Morrison did an opposition as anvil around your government's neck well.

the only trouble with this polling is atleast one thing. Krudd has said he would resign. But it was presumed he hands in his ticket for a by-election to be married to any potential West senate redux.

Other thing is the other guy called Malcolm. He had his wife convince him first time about 5 years ago, to hang around.

 

[blackcat]

#luvv!es

#pavlov_dog_leg_in_air_mouth_breathing

#iced_vovos_+hugs_with_Therese

 

[blackcat]

ok edit: Shorten v Abbott preferred PM.

 

[Dont be a lemon]

He got in on three years of relentless negativity and Labor leader problems, not any positive talk. Now after eleven weeks he's done 180s and drawn up bridge from the media and so the public.

I can believe it.

 

[samFFC]

In the space on 2 months, Abbott has managed to turn a crushing election victory into what would be a thrashing defeat at the polls.

#Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 ALP 52 #auspol

Probably not a "thrashing defeat", given only around 11 Lib/Nat seats sit on a margin of less than 3%. Labor is likely to claw back a few of these at the election.

There are however quite a few seats won by Lib/Nat candidate, with a margin just above 3% (eg. Deakin, Robertson, Lindsay, La Trobe, Bass, Bonner). Interesting to see how those new Members are viewed by the local community, and if they will retain seats in the face of a swing against the Govt in next election, on the back of strong local support. These are the seats that need to swing to bring about a Hung Parliament or ALP victory.

But Shorten and co would be encouraged.