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Polls Thread Mk III

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The coalition only won once with a primary vote under 40% , that was John howard government who had a huge margin from the 96 election win.

The Abbott government doesn't have that type of a margin
 
poller said:
The coalition only won once with a primary vote under 40% , that was John howard government who had a huge margin from the 96 election win.

The Abbott government doesn't have that type of a margin
Click to expand...

I wonder if list of lies tony is arrogant enough to believe he can pull that off, throw in GST for good measure
 

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Huzzah! More of what I was expecting.

-21% net approval of Abbott from last month. -28 overall was only topped by Gillard in Nielsen twice. I'd think that's unlikely to rebound to anything "acceptable."


And, as I type, Newspoll comes in, surprisingly early.

Newspoll
Primaries
Coalition: 36 (-2)
ALP: 38 (+4)
Greens: 11 (-3)

TPP
Coalition: 45 (-2)
ALP: 55 (+2)

Leaders' Approval (Approve(+/-)/Disapprove(+/-))
Abbott: 30 (-5)/60 (+4)
Shorten: 42 (+7)/39 (-2)

Preferred PM
Abbott: 34 (-6)
Shorten: 44 (+6)

Budget: Good or bad for economy?
Good: 39
Bad: 48

Budget: Personally, Better or worse off?
Better: 5
Worse: 69

Budget: Would Labor have done better?
Yes: 39
No: 46

Newspoll have surveyed the preceding three questions following every budget since 1988. Only in 1993 did an opposition get a positive result on the final question, however the difference between the opposition & govt. is lower than any budget brought down by Costello.

Nielsen - Adding to pjcrows' analysis (TPP 56-44)
Primaries
Coalition: 35 (-5)
ALP: 40 (+6)
Greens: 14 (-3)
Leaders' Approval (Approve(+/-)/Disapprove(+/-))
Abbott: 34 (-9)/62 (+12)
Shorten: 47 (+4)/39 (-2)

Preferred PM
Abbott: 40 (-5)
Shorten: 51 (+7)

Budget - fair or unfair?
Fair: 33
Unfair: 63

Budgetary measures: (Support-Oppose)
Deficit Levy: 50-37
Abolish Carbon Tax: 49-46
Raise GST: 30-66



On those earlier Galaxy figures, the data was collected over Wednesday-Friday, whereas Newspoll and Nielsen took figures beginning on Thursday. It may be the case that the effects of the budget hadn't sunk in for part of Galaxy's sample.
 
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I said it in another thread...he is finished, the audience have stopped listening and when was the last time Australian's rallied on the streets soon after a budget? I find it hard to see him being there come year end, and given that he only beat Turnbull by 1 vote, the challenge would have to be imminent.

Hockey is finished too...
 
midorigreenwood said:


Sounds like they've bitten off more than they can chew picking a fight with everyone.
Click to expand...


After Cossie publoicly criticised Hockey's budget I looked up Costello's 1996 budget opeech and was interested to see that the speech actually emphasised a whole raft of handouts - tax relief for 2 million low income earners via lifting the income tax free threshold for people with dependent children; an income tested rebate for private health insurance, tax rebates for low income self funded ret8irees, maintianing age pension at or above 25% average male earnings.
Seem to have been quite a myth that Costello's 1996 budget was tough.
 

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Juddism said:
I said it in another thread...he is finished, the audience have stopped listening and when was the last time Australian's rallied on the streets soon after a budget? I find it hard to see him being there come year end, and given that he only beat Turnbull by 1 vote, the challenge would have to be imminent.

Hockey is finished too...
Click to expand...
I wouldn't bet on it. They kept Howard until the end.
 
Allgood Awesome said:
I wouldn't bet on it. They kept Howard until the end.
Click to expand...
Howard's poll figures where never that bad that far out from the election, until Rudd was elected Leader of the ALP Howard enjoyed a comfortable lead in the polls over Beazley. The Liberals then in early 2007 thought that they could tie Rudd to Brian Burke, if they could it would've killed him, but they didn't, once that had played out it we were in May and only a few months from an election campaign, one in which the ALP absolutely smashed the Coalition. Rudd ran the best campaign since Gough and the 'It's Time' campaign in 1972. The other problem was that Costello wasn't a realistically viable option, he had been Howard's right hand man for 10 years' and by many they were seen as one in the same.

The Libs currently have three of options available to them which are actually viable:
  1. Stick with Abbott for another 6 months and see if the polls improve. This will also give everyone a chance to see if he can work with a hostile Senate.
  2. Dump Abbott for Hockey. Ok the electorate mightn't like him at first, but the electorate didn't like Keating either. This has to be a long term decision though as he will need 2 years to show the electorate he is more than a growling dog.
  3. Dump Abbott for Turnbull. By far the most liked in the electorate, but hated by the Liberal right as being to much of a real Liberal. I can't see this though happening in the short term, maybe by Christmas or early 2015, but not in the next 4 months.
The problem with Abbott as I see it though is that there is absolutely no substance to the man. Its fine to be an opposition leader and just pick fault, but he can't even sell his own message, let alone come up with a decent one to sell. If the Libs go to the next election with Abbott as leader they'll get smashed. As PM you will never win an election by pointing at the opposition say them bad us good when you've just stripped billions from health, education and those on social security.
 

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I presume the Liberals are planning for the next two budgets to turn things around, and want to get the bad stuff out of the way first.

And then, presuming they win the next election, many of the things they've announced now can be implemented in the first budget of their second term.

That's what it look like, at least. Rests heavily on being able to win back support.
 
The Speaker said:
I presume the Liberals are planning for the next two budgets to turn things around, and want to get the bad stuff out of the way first.

And then, presuming they win the next election, many of the things they've announced now can be implemented in the first budget of their second term.

That's what it look like, at least. Rests heavily on being able to win back support.
Click to expand...

But some of the bad stuff is pointless, and the states are offside too

Sounds like the urge to attck political enemies won out really
 
Hank Scorpion said:
Coming in from Nielsen again, one month later.

WA Federal Primaries
ALP: 22
Liberals: 34
Greens: 23
PUP: 13

Large margin of error (+/- 8%), but two state-by-state breakdowns in two months backing each other up....
Click to expand...

Yep, wowza.

Also, also ALP/Lib/PUP were 84% last time, down to 79% now. PUP seem to be picking up those falling through the cracks.
 

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Polls Thread Mk III

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