Polls Thread Mk III

[Magruder]

the question is whether there will be focal collapses in the primary vote for coalition in those seats leading to independents capturing seats

yes, would give a limb to see detailed internal, seat based polling.

Higgins/Kooyong/Flinders/Goldstein.

A high profile independent candidate for each of those seats and it feels like they might be in play.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

yes, would give a limb to see detailed internal, seat based polling.

Higgins/Kooyong/Flinders/Goldstein.

A high profile independent candidate for each of those seats and it feels like they might be in play.

They all will pull back to the libs once the election is live. It's one thing to say "no" in theory, but when the campaign starts all the old fears preferences and motivators return.

But agree, I'd love to see the internals.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Listen, I'm always suspicious of broad polling of party based voting intention, but far out.

ALP (55.5%) increases lead over the L-NP (44.5%) to the largest since the last election as Government splinters on ‘vaccine mandates’ - Roy Morgan Research

ALP support is now at 55.5% (up 2% points since early November) cf. L-NP on 44.5% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last two weekends.

www.roymorgan.com

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

An 11% 2PP margin that is increasing, doesn't seem great for the Libs.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

An 11% 2PP margin that is increasing, doesn't seem great for the Libs.

my gut is this is still mostly driving up existing ALP strongholds (ie its not a full seat by seat consistent swing)

also people are not in election mode yet, some of the ALP polling preferences are a protest vote - they will swing back

 

[Pessimistic]

Scomo is not acting calmly like it’s within reach

 

[Magruder]

my gut is this is still mostly driving up existing ALP strongholds (ie its not a full seat by seat consistent swing)

also people are not in election mode yet, some of the ALP polling preferences are a protest vote - they will swing back

Headline figures are nice but it's the granular detail that determines both victory and its magnitude.

 

[Magruder]

Scomo is not acting calmly like it’s within reach

The internal polling is telling him that he can't win without something extraordinary. Thought he'd lean into the whole Solomon islands thing a bit more TBH...

We may be about to enter the "discard" phase of Morrison's relationship with the Australian people.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

my gut is this is still mostly driving up existing ALP strongholds (ie its not a full seat by seat consistent swing)

also people are not in election mode yet, some of the ALP polling preferences are a protest vote - they will swing back

For sure, but TBH we've seen what happens when the Australian public lose tolerance, particularly due to political navel gazing.

A wipeout is plausible. As is an LNP win.

I'd suggest though in WA and Vic those swings aren't seat specific.

 

[sherb]

The internal polling is telling him that he can't win without something extraordinary. Thought he'd lean into the whole Solomon islands thing a bit more TBH...

We may be about to enter the "discard" phase of Morrison's relationship with the Australian people.

God's on his side, he can't lose.

 

[Vindicater]

Listen, I'm always suspicious of broad polling of party based voting intention, but far out.

ALP (55.5%) increases lead over the L-NP (44.5%) to the largest since the last election as Government splinters on ‘vaccine mandates’ - Roy Morgan Research

ALP support is now at 55.5% (up 2% points since early November) cf. L-NP on 44.5% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last two weekends.

www.roymorgan.com

Crazy stat from that poll is that 70% of preferences are flowing to labor...

 

[Number37]

For sure, but TBH we've seen what happens when the Australian public lose tolerance, particularly due to political navel gazing.

A wipeout is plausible. As is an LNP win.

I'd suggest though in WA and Vic those swings aren't seat specific.

Not jinx-ing it NSWCROW but wouldn't it be awesome if Labor won a majority in both houses?
Fed ICAC
Rewind all that university fees bullcrap
Rewind cuts to Medicare
Boost Centrelink payments

That's before we even get to something about the big ticket items like climate change and tax reform.

 

[kranky al]

Not jinx-ing it NSWCROW but wouldn't it be awesome if Labor won a majority in both houses?
Fed ICAC
Rewind all that university fees bullcrap
Rewind cuts to Medicare
Boost Centrelink payments

That's before we even get to something about the big ticket items like climate change and tax reform.

Hopefully old scrotum face will have a coronary

 

[pjcrows]

Libs will win.

 

[Vindicater]

Libs will win.

Libs will lose.

 

[Brunswick Trap King]

Not jinx-ing it NSWCROW but wouldn't it be awesome if Labor won a majority in both houses?
Fed ICAC
Rewind all that university fees bullcrap
Rewind cuts to Medicare
Boost Centrelink payments

That's before we even get to something about the big ticket items like climate change and tax reform.

I think it's a bit optimistic to think that ALP would do those things

 

[Number37]

I think it's a bit optimistic to think that ALP would do those things

Control of both Houses makes the impossible possible.

 

[Brunswick Trap King]

Control of both Houses makes the impossible possible.

I know what you mean but I'm just sceptical the modern Labor party will be willing to rock the boat.

 

[Number37]

I know what you mean but I'm just sceptical the modern Labor party will be willing to rock the boat.

I'm hopeful rather than certain.
Would be an easy argument for Albo to make.....ie an election that delivers control of both Houses = a mandate to do big things.

 

[iluvparis]

I know what you mean but I'm just sceptical the modern Labor party will be willing to rock the boat.

Surely after last elections disaster with actual policy they will just play small ball and go for the 'not the Libs' strategy.

 

[Fire]

Surely after last elections disaster with actual policy they will just play small ball and go for the 'not the Libs' strategy.

Yeah i don't see Labour bringing a lot of policy to the table again until the boomers pass TBH. It's no coincidence that labour have struggled since this demographic largely came to power; and the only time they have won was when they were liberal lite.

 

[Kyptastic]

 

[Forward Press]

There is no way we are going to see that replicated in May - surely.

 

[Vindicater]

**** me that would be awesome but it aint happening.

Still think ALP winsbthe next election though with anout 52% of the 2pp

 

[Kyptastic]

For reference, 56% is the highest 2PP Labor got to prior to the last election, just after the time that Scott Morrison rolled Turnbull. It was back to 52% just before the election, with the actual TPP ending up at 48.5%/51.5% for the election.