Polls Thread Mk III

[Magruder]

There is no transparency in terms of polling.
How is it even done? I don't understand how you can get a accurate representation of public opinion when you are polling truly random people

Their disclosed method is to weight responses, (presumably by age, education, occupation, gender, ethnicity etc) to arrive at a representative sample of the polity.

Nothing wrong with it in theory except it potentially magnifies outliers and could be open to manipulation. This seems especially plausible when you reduce your sample from 2000 to 1600.

 

[dusty1234!]

ALP (54.5%) increases lead over L-NP (45.5%) for third straight interviewing period - Roy Morgan Research

www.roymorgan.com

 

[Vindicater]

Polls are holding steady around those 53-47 numbers.

Morrison appears cooked.

 

[Magruder]

Can anyone access the latest Newspoll?

curious as to sample size and demographic breakdowns.

incidentally, anyone else reckon if the Libs had gained a point it’d be splashed all over the front page and therefore all over the breakfast news?

 

[dusty1234!]

Can anyone access the latest Newspoll?

curious as to sample size and demographic breakdowns.

incidentally, anyone else reckon if the Libs had gained a point it’d be splashed all over the front page and therefore all over the breakfast news?

this is just a visual

 

[Millky95]

 

[Hank Scorpion]

This somewhat underrates Labor in Vic. 3.4% uniform swing only nets Chisholm, but there are a half dozen in the 3.7-5.8% range.

They'd probably expect to win at least 3 based on those probabilities.

 

[Magruder]

This somewhat underrates Labor in Vic. 3.4% uniform swing only nets Chisholm, but there are a half dozen in the 3.7-5.8% range.

They'd probably expect to win at least 3 based on those probabilities.

and there’s a swathe of blue ribbon seats that could fall to high quality independent candidates.

 

[Vindicater]

A good mate of mine works for the federal Greens based in Adelaide.

She says they have done a stack of internal polling and think they have a large swing coming their way nationally.

Interesting thing is that they are not confident of picking up any lower house seats (although she said they have two in play) but that if the voting pattern is repeated in the upper house they are confident that they will pick up 2 more seats in the senate.

 

[Magruder]

National or SA based swing?

 

[Vindicater]

National or SA based swing?

National swing but they think it will be quite uniform from what I have gathered. Enough to build power in the senate but not in lower house.

I pushed to ask which two lower house seats could potentially be in play but they would not tell me.

 

[Pessimistic]

A good mate of mine works for the federal Greens based in Adelaide.

She says they have done a stack of internal polling and think they have a large swing coming their way nationally.

Interesting thing is that they are not confident of picking up any lower house seats (although she said they have two in play) but that if the voting pattern is repeated in the upper house they are confident that they will pick up 2 more seats in the senate.

With federal LNPs conversion to take Climate action (SIC) (and taking the kudos for work so far, after declaring war on SA's renewables push a couple of years back), and the subs debacle thrown in, you'd imagine federal coalition is stinking in SA right now

 

[Magruder]

National swing but they think it will be quite uniform from what I have gathered. Enough to build power in the senate but not in lower house.

I pushed to ask which two lower house seats could potentially be in play but they would not tell me.

Guessing Higgins...

 

[dusty1234!]

Guessing Higgins...

Higgins and maybe Kooyong
Even Macnamara perhaps

 

[Magruder]

Higgins and maybe Kooyong
Even Macnamara perhaps

actually Macnamarra may be the most likely of the three.

 

[kranky al]

Well labors thin chances in country wa just got funked by mcgowans power grab.

once in a lifetime labor supporters running back to the coalition

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Well labors thin chances in country wa just got funked by mcgowans power grab.

once in a lifetime labor supporters running back to the coalition

A correction was and is always inevitable.

As you said, they were once in a lifetime alp voters, they were never voting twice for the alp. Be it this, or something as lame as Freo winning something, they would have found a reason to return home because they want to return home.

Same for vic, talk of an expanded majority is insane

 

[Magruder]

A correction was and is always inevitable.

As you said, they were once in a lifetime alp voters, they were never voting twice for the alp. Be it this, or something as lame as Freo winning something, they would have found a reason to return home because they want to return home.

Same for vic, talk of an expanded majority is insane

agreed.

Labor's vote share in Vic and WA (On a State basis) have hit a high point. Claims that Vic Labor may expand on it's vote share/majority may as well dispute gravity.

Federal election will probs see significant gains for ALP but not on the scale seen in state polling numbers. (How that translates into seat gains is the key).

 

[Crankyhawk]

agreed.

Labor's vote share in Vic and WA (On a State basis) have hit a high point. Claims that Vic Labor may expand on it's vote share/majority may as well dispute gravity.

Federal election will probs see significant gains for ALP but not on the scale seen in state polling numbers. (How that translates into seat gains is the key).

the question is whether there will be focal collapses in the primary vote for coalition in those seats leading to independents capturing seats

 

[kranky al]

A correction was and is always inevitable.

As you said, they were once in a lifetime alp voters, they were never voting twice for the alp. Be it this, or something as lame as Freo winning something, they would have found a reason to return home because they want to return home.

Same for vic, talk of an expanded majority is insane

Lol the chances of freo winning something is hardly statistically likely enough to constitute any sort of data point.

 

[Vindicater]

agreed.

Labor's vote share in Vic and WA (On a State basis) have hit a high point. Claims that Vic Labor may expand on it's vote share/majority may as well dispute gravity.

Federal election will probs see significant gains for ALP but not on the scale seen in state polling numbers. (How that translates into seat gains is the key).

And will that also translate to the senate.

 

[Pessimistic]

Come any horse trading after a close finish, you'd imagine any true independents who profited electorally from Scomos poor public profile, would prefer not to deal - then being seen as duplicitous.
Or theres UAP where its just a cynical exercise in rigging

 

[Ned_Flanders]

the question is whether there will be focal collapses in the primary vote for coalition in those seats leading to independents capturing seats

usually a party gets new blood and their s**t together. epoch changes in party arrangements can happen, but are bloody rare

look at QLD. even after all the s**t that has happened there over the last 40 years, all that happened was the LNP merger

 

[Crankyhawk]

usually a party gets new blood and their sh*t together. epoch changes in party arrangements can happen, but are bloody rare

look at QLD. even after all the sh*t that has happened there over the last 40 years, all that happened was the LNP merger

thinking it could be a collapse at this upcoming election and then with a major clean out comes some respectability and a rapid rebuild to be back in contention 2025 (aided by certain media portrayal of the inevitable rise in interest rates, ALP having not achieved what they promised/ hinted at, etc etc

 

[Ned_Flanders]

thinking it could be a collapse at this upcoming election and then with a major clean out comes some respectability and a rapid rebuild to be back in contention 2025 (aided by certain media portrayal of the inevitable rise in interest rates, ALP having not achieved what they promised/ hinted at, etc etc

the key issue is name recognition and infrastructure

if you start new, you lose all of that. AS, UAP and PHON only got it because of the profile of their leaders, and the greens took decades before the larger population took them seriously